CHINAMacroReporter

U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective

Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
by

|

CHINADebate

June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi

‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’

The author is Wang Jisi.

  • Wang is president of Peking University's Institute of International and Strategic Studies for his study of China's relations with the United States and international relations overall.
  • He serves on top advisory boards for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the and the Chinese Communist Party.
  • Foreign Policy has named him one of the Top 100 Public Intellectuals in the world.

And Mr. Wang seems to have insulation that allows him to speak his mind more openly than many others.

The report deviated from the usual line, saying, ‘Both the U.S. and China will lose from “decoupling.” And at this point, it looks like China’s loss may be greater.’

This week, I came across ‘Wang Jisi: Has America declined? Chinese people should have a clear understanding’ [‘王缉思: 美国到底有没有衰落? 中国人应有清醒认识’], an interview that Mr. Wang gave in May. (David Cowig provides a translation here.)

  • His essay in Foreign Affairs was an analysis of U.S.-China relations for a western audience.
  • This interview, published in Chinese, is for a Chinese audience – yet it has a sense that Mr. Wang is unencumbered by censorship or pressure from the government or Party.

He notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership.

  • But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do.
  • I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.

The interview is very long (but well worth reading in full). Below are excerpts representing some Mr. Wang’s key points.

  • You won’t agree with all his arguments. (I certainly didn’t.)

But you will better understand the Chinese point of view on U.S.-China relations, or at least that of an eminent and influential Chinese scholar.

1 | ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

Q: ‘Compared with more than 20 years ago, do you think the United States is in decline?’

Wang Jisi: ‘I am skeptical of the assertion that the U.S. economy is in decline.’

  • ‘Over the years, although the proportion of the U.S. economy in the world's total economy has declined relatively, it has basically stabilized in the range of 25% to 30%.’

‘Objectively speaking, the overall national strength of the United States is basically stable, but this does not seem to be the mainstream view at home and abroad.’  

  • ‘The only reason people feel the U.S. economy is weak is that they are comparing it to China.’

‘Nevertheless, the overall economic strength of developing countries is rising and that of developed countries overall is declining.’

  • ‘This performance confirms the general thesis of “the East is rising and the West is falling”.’ [Which Xi Jinping so often notes.]

‘Most of the discussions on “whether the United States is in decline” are from a political perspective.’

  • ‘Chairman Mao emphasized in 1957 that “the east wind overcomes the west wind”. At that time, China’s view was “the enemy is declining day by day, and we are getting better day by day”.’
  • ‘Now we say, “the East is rising, and the West is falling”, which is from the same lineage.’

2 | ‘The only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

Q: ‘What do you think are the characteristics of the Biden China strategy?

Mr. Wang: ‘The Biden administration's China strategy has three characteristics.’

‘First, the starting point is to strengthen America’s own power.’

  • ‘The Biden administration has always emphasized dialogue with China “from a position of strength,” because if its own strength declines, the United States will lose its competitiveness.’
  • ‘So their first step is to strengthen the U.S. own strength, enhance domestic economic and technological strength, accelerate infrastructure construction, and “get back” the real economy.’

‘Second, the U.S. wants to unite with some other countries in the world to jointly restrain China, and to establish a multilateral camp against China.’

  • ‘Since the Biden administration, the U.S. has held the “Summit of Democracies” and established the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Mechanism” and the U.S.-UK-Australia “Trilateral Security Partnership,” always emphasizing that the U.S. cannot “fight alone”.’

‘If there is a third point, it is that the United States believes that future competition is mainly a contest of national governance capabilities.’

  • ‘Whoever can avoid obvious policy mistakes will win indirectly through the mistakes of their opponents.’

‘Recognizing that there is nothing it can do to “change China,” the Biden administration can only look to exploit possible Chinese “policy mistakes” to weaken China.’

  • ‘This is why the U.S. sometimes deliberately provokes China into making “reckless” missteps, a move that is clearly purposeful and not as overt as the first two but is an important consideration for the U.S. side.’

‘So the only approach the United States can take is to strengthen its competition with China, isolate China in the world, and put China in a passive position.’

3 | ‘The U.S. does not believe that other civilizations can have its vitality and universality.’

Q: ‘How is this different from the U.S. strategy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War?’

Mr. Wang: ‘When it comes to the difference between the current U.S. strategy toward China and the strategy of containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, I think it is more reflected in the impact of the differences in civilization and race between the two sides of the game.’

  • ‘On the one hand, the United States believes that the Western civilization system that has continued from ancient Greece and ancient Rome to the present belongs to a kind of "universal value", which represents the direction of the world's progress. They do not believe that there is any other civilization that is so vital and so universal.’
  • ‘On the other, China believes that the 5,000-year historical inheritance of Chinese civilization is sufficient to demonstrate the vitality and advancement of Eastern civilization or Confucian civilization. We have the responsibility and obligation to carry forward the Chinese civilization, which is different from Western Christian civilization, and that the two can go hand in hand.’

‘This brings up the issue of race.’

  • ‘The influence of China, as the representative of the "yellow race," is also rising rapidly.’
  • ‘In the eyes of the American elites represented by white people, it is intolerable for Chinese civilization to replace Christian civilization, so they will do everything possible to prevent China's development.’

4 | ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

Q: ‘Can the Chinese and U.S. economies really decouple?’

Mr. Wang: ‘China and the U.S. are inseparable economically, and economic interests will play a very big role between the two countries.’

  • ‘The interdependence between China and the United States is not a matter of willingness, but a problem that no one can avoid.’

‘The economic and trade structure of the two countries determines that the complete “decoupling” of the United States and China is impossible.’

  • ‘Even “partial decoupling” is very difficult to do.’

‘From this perspective, the United States cannot completely “decouple” from China.’

‘While for China, there would even be the risk of “strangulation”, so we still have to continue to insist on opening up to the outside world.’

  • ‘If a country has no demand for the outside world at all, that country cannot achieve real development either.’

5 | ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

Q: ‘Do you think the U.S. government's Taiwan policy is undergoing fundamental changes? If there is war in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States intervene?’

Mr. Wang: ‘I don't think there has been any fundamental change in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan.’

  • ‘The United States still emphasizes the “One-China Policy,” but that policy has never included recognizing Taiwan as a part of China .’

‘The U.S. is ambiguous on this issue, recognizing only the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government representing China.’

  • ‘This shows the fundamental difference between the U.S. One-China Policy and our One-China principle.’

‘We believe that:’

  1. ‘There is only one China in the world,’
  2. ‘The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and’
  3. ‘Taiwan is a part of China.’

‘These three sentences are linked together.’

  • ‘The United States has accepted only the first two sentences.'
  • 'At the same time, it haskept walking a tightrope on the third sentence, neither denying that Taiwan is an independent political entity nor supporting “Taiwan independence”.’

‘In my opinion, the U.S. does not fully support "Taiwan independence".’

  • ‘Successive U.S. governments have used the Taiwan issue to keep China in check.’
  • ‘In the unlikely event that “Taiwan independence” does materialize, the U.S. would lose the leverage to use Taiwan as a counterweight to China.’
  • ‘Moreover, "Taiwan independence" will trigger a war between China and the United States, and the United States will not gain much.’

‘For the U.S., the best state of affairs is that Taiwan is neither under the control of the Mainland, nor does it transform itself into a legally “independent Taiwan”.’

  • ‘This way it can continue to reap the benefits” on both sides.’

‘What the United States has always supported is that Taiwan is neither reunified nor independent.’

  • ‘And this basic principle has not changed.’

‘The Biden administration has increased its efforts to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to pressure China.’

  • ‘But I don’t think the bottom line has changed.’

‘As for whether or not the U.S. will intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and the extent of its involvement, I think it is difficult to pre-determine.’

  • ‘It mainly depends on the form and scale of the mainland's "use of force against Taiwan".’

‘We must retain the option of "using force against Taiwan" as bottom-line thinking.’

  • ‘As the Tsai Ing-wen administration continues to escalate provocations against the Mainland, we will also emphasize the credibility and urgency of resolving the Taiwan issue by force, so as to form a stronger deterrent to the “Taiwan independence” forces.’

‘I believe that China has already developed plans for the eventual use of force if that should become necessary and that plan includes preparations for a possible U.S. involvement.’

More

CHINAMacroReporter

April 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'Change unseen for a 100 years is coming.'
Time went of joint in the mid-1800s when China began its ‘Century of Humiliation.’ And Mr. Xi, with a sense of destiny, seems to feel he was born to set it right. (I very much doubt that Mr. Xi would add: ‘O cursed spite’ – he seems to relish his role and the shot it gives him to go down in history as China’s greatest ruler.)
keep reading
January 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?
Some have asked me what will be the greatest risk to China in the next five years. My answer: That Xi Jinping will overstep and enact policies that Chinese people won’t accept, especially those that have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods.
keep reading
November 22, 2022
'Strangling with an intent to kill.’
I began to have some hope of getting our act together with Mr. Biden. He worked to rebuild relations with allies who could join the U.S. in the competition. And he understood the need for America to strengthen itself for competition. Hence, the infrastructure, CHIPS, and other acts. But whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, one thing nagged me beyond all the rest. Why is America strengthening our competitor? — In the instant case: Why is America giving our competitor advanced semiconductor resources to strengthen itself to compete against us?
keep reading
August 24, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China
All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
keep reading
July 23, 2023
‘The U.S. Has Tactics, But No China Strategy’ | Bill Zarit
‘The U.S. needs national review of outward investment to China, but it has to be narrow and targeted and done in conjunction with our allies and partners.’
keep reading
July 10, 2023
‘Is Xi Coup-proof?’ (after the march on Moscow, I have to ask)
What about the guys without guns? So if Mr. Xi doesn’t face a rogue army or a military coup… How about a coup by Party elites?
keep reading
April 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: 'Change unseen for a 100 years is coming.'
Time went of joint in the mid-1800s when China began its ‘Century of Humiliation.’ And Mr. Xi, with a sense of destiny, seems to feel he was born to set it right. (I very much doubt that Mr. Xi would add: ‘O cursed spite’ – he seems to relish his role and the shot it gives him to go down in history as China’s greatest ruler.)
keep reading
January 2, 2023
Xi Jinping: Bad Emperor?
Some have asked me what will be the greatest risk to China in the next five years. My answer: That Xi Jinping will overstep and enact policies that Chinese people won’t accept, especially those that have a direct impact on their lives and livelihoods.
keep reading
November 22, 2022
'Strangling with an intent to kill.’
I began to have some hope of getting our act together with Mr. Biden. He worked to rebuild relations with allies who could join the U.S. in the competition. And he understood the need for America to strengthen itself for competition. Hence, the infrastructure, CHIPS, and other acts. But whether Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, one thing nagged me beyond all the rest. Why is America strengthening our competitor? — In the instant case: Why is America giving our competitor advanced semiconductor resources to strengthen itself to compete against us?
keep reading
October 31, 2022
Xi's China: 'less reliable, less predictable, and less efficient'
‘China’s predictability is being eroded by the frequent, erratic policy shifts that have taken place in recent months, such as the unexpected disruptions to power supplies that took place in 2021, and the sudden mass lockdowns that were imposed in an attempt to contain COVID.'
keep reading
October 18, 2022
Xi Jinping: ‘Crossing a threshold to outright dictatorship?’'
The view from inside China appears to be quite different. Yes, the Chinese people may grumble about the Zero-COVID lockdowns, and just a few days a banner critical of Mr. Xi and his regime was unveiled over an overpass in Beijing.
keep reading
October 10, 2022
The 20th Party Congress with All Eyes are on Xi Jinping
The attention to Mr. Xi is in large part because he will exit the Party Congress with even greater power, no discernible opposition, and a new five-year term (with more likely to follow). And many of the constraints that may have been in place not to jeopardize his reappointment will be gone.
keep reading
September 26, 2022
China Coup: How Worried Should Xi Be?
‘Xi and the phrase #ChinaCoup trended on social media after tens of thousands of users spread unconfirmed rumors that the president was detained and overthrown by the China's People's Liberation Army.’
keep reading
September 18, 2022
'How do you spy on China?'
Many of you have asked about my own take on the issues I analyze in these pages and about my background. Today is some of both.I am honored to have been interviewed by the terrific Jeremy Goldkorn, editor-in-chief of The China Project. Below is part of that interview.
keep reading
September 5, 2022
Xi’s Dangerous Radical Secrecy
In a world of political hardball, investigative reporting, and tabloids, we know a lot (if not always accurate or unspun) about world leaders, especially those in functioning democracies. Not so with Xi Jinping.
keep reading
July 10, 2022
Building Biden's 'Great Wall' Around China
Whether you view it as an aggressive adversary or a nation asserting itself in ways commensurate with its rising status, China is creating risks – some subtle, some obvious - that, along with reactions of the U.S. and its allies, have to be factored, into every related business, investment, and policy strategy.
keep reading
July 1, 2022
A Debt Crisis of its Own Making
Ever since Xi Jinping announced ‘One Belt, One Road’ in 2013, I watched it expand China’s economic and geopolitical influence and lay the foundation for projecting its military power – and become by many accounts an exploiter of the developing world itself.
keep reading
June 22, 2022
No. Ukraine Won't Change Xi's Plans - or Timetable - for Taiwan
Ukraine won't speed up or delay Mr. Xi's timetable. (But it may cause him to work harder to strengthen China's military and insulate its economy from external pressure.)
keep reading
June 12, 2022
'The competitiveness of China is eroding.'
Understanding the drivers of China’s rise to supply chain prominence gives (me anyway) insights to help analyze the changes – or not – of ‘decoupling.’
keep reading
June 5, 2022
U.S.-China Relations: A Chinese Perspective
Wang Jisi notes that the views are his own, and certainly we don’t know how closely, if at all, they reflect the thinking of anyone in the leadership. But given his straightforward and thorough analysis, free of canned arguments and slogans, I hope they do. I also hope the Biden administration pays heed.
keep reading
May 30, 2022
Is Xi Jinping China's Biggest Problem?
And while the impact of Zero Covid may be relatively short-lived, the impact of Mr. Xi’s return to the socialist path will be felt for a very long time, both in China and the world. So the impact will no doubt be felt as long as Mr. Xi leads China.
keep reading
May 22, 2022
The Next U.S.-China Crisis: CEOs & Boards Are Not Ready
‘The bad news is that very few corporations engaged in China have contingency plans or long-term strategies to hedge against the downside risks of growing geopolitical competition.’
keep reading
May 14, 2022
China GDP: 'A very long period of Japan-style low growth.’
Here are some of the insights from ‘The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow’ by Peking University’s Michael Pettis. This excellent analysis of China’s economy is worth a careful reading.
keep reading
May 1, 2022
'Zero Covid' & the Shanghai lockdown
Joerg Wuttke is the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China - the 'official voice of European business in China.'
keep reading
April 17, 2022
Is China's Tech 'Crackdown' Really Over?
Today, I’m sharing with you a bit of Ms. Schaefer’s analysis of the tech ‘crackdown’ (but not of the AI and algorithm law). She explains why...
keep reading
April 17, 2022
China: 'Sleep Walking into Sanctions?'
A looming risk is Russia-like sanctions on China. The sanctions on Russia are causing plenty of disruptions. But those disruptions would be nothing compared to the catastrophe of Russia-like sanctions on China. The good news is that if China does violate the sanctions, the violations would likely be narrow and specific - even unintentional. So secondary sanctions - if they come at all - likely won't hit China’s economy and financial system deeply – or (fingers crossed) U.S.-China relations.
keep reading
April 5, 2022
Russian Sanctions' Impact on China
In the meantime, some contend, China has a payment system, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System or CIPS, that could make it independent of SWIFT.
keep reading
March 21, 2022
Faint Cracks
For some time now we’ve taken it for granted that Xi Jinping has so consolidated his power that his will is China policy.
keep reading
March 13, 2022
Is China in a Bind?
It wants to support Russia, but also wants to support the international order from which benefits and doesn’t want to alienate the major economies its own economy is intertwined with.
keep reading
February 19, 2022
Under Construction: Two (Opposing) World Orders
Years ago, before the so-called ‘New Cold War,’ when asked what China issue interested me most, I said, ‘China and the liberal world order.’
keep reading
February 17, 2022
'A Fateful Error'
As the 1904 cartoon from Puck magazine shows, this isn’t the first time in the past 100 or so years that Russia has shattered the peace. [Or has been defeated, as it was in 1905 by the Japanese in the Russo-Japanese War.]
keep reading
February 2, 2022
Ukraine, Taiwan, & the 'Nightmare Scenario'
This in no way diminishes the calamity of a war with China. But the ability of the U.S. to wage that war would not be diminished by having to fight Russia at the same time.
keep reading
January 18, 2022
This is Mr. Xi's Big Year - and Nothing Better Spoil It
Every politician going into an election wants a strong economy. Xi Jinping is aiming to be reelected (and all indications are he will be) to a third five-year term at the National Party Congress this autumn. So Mr. Xi will ease (and stimulate ) as much as he can without creating major headaches to deal with after his reelection - all in the name of 'stability.'
keep reading
January 5, 2022
Bachelors, Mother-in-Laws, & China's Economy
‘In the long-term, demographics is one of the most important forces that will shape the growth momentum of China for the next decades. Two demographic features that are especially worth paying attention:’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 6 | China Reverse Its Declining Birthrate?
‘A lot of people feel like the ideal, the optimum number of children is a maximum of two children. So it's not a surprise to me that the three-child policy hasn’t had a high response in the short term. But I think in the long term it will be much better.’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Shang-jin Wei Presentation-1 | Drivers of Growth Momentum
‘In the last year and a half we saw a spate of government actions all contributed to not just falling stock prices for companies in certain sectors but a deterioration in investor sentiment more broadly. These include:...’
keep reading
December 30, 2021
Q&A 1 | How Much Does the Gender Imbalance Contribute to China’s Rising Housing Prices?
‘Gender imbalance accounts for about one-third of the increase in China’s housing prices in the last two decades or so.’
keep reading

Heading

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Suspendisse varius enim in eros elementum tristique. Duis cursus, mi quis viverra ornare, eros dolor interdum nulla, ut commodo diam libero vitae erat. Aenean faucibus nibh et justo cursus id rutrum lorem imperdiet. Nunc ut sem vitae risus tristique posuere.