<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 24, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6txIB6?track_p_id=2NZ8sV0co_YCh6%40xckefWBD" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6txIB6?track_p_id=71gtiIh58sV0co_AZ41IPEd" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“We stand with the people of Hong Kong.” </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6txIB6?track_p_id=7%40QmBjqp8sV0co_ekMD6DqK" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“We stand with the people of Hong Kong.” </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today we cover </strong>in some detail the proposed new security law in Hong Kong and its impact. As a preview here are two quotes that show that Hong Kong has been an issue in U.S. policy with China for a long time.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1997:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> " Only the U.S. has the will and the way to stand up for Hong Kong." </strong>Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jesse Helms.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2020:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “We stand with the people of Hong Kong.” </strong>Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The NPC in Brief.’ The Economist’s headline</strong> sums it up: ‘China paints a target on Hong Kong, but abandons one for growth.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'We're in a Cold War.' Stephan Roach of Yale,</strong> who is certainly not an alarmist, now believes, ‘We're embroiled in a good old-fashioned, tough, increasingly nasty Cold War right now.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I was around</strong> for the last Cold War and even spent a little time in the trenches.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What’s going on</strong> between the U.S. and China doesn’t look like a Cold War to me.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said,</strong> we’re sure moving more in that direction than away.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Xi Jinping Makes Clear That China's Goal Is to Dominate the World,’</strong> asserts Hal Brands of the Fletcher School of Law &amp; Diplomacy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a growing body </strong>of evidence that the Chinese government is indeed aiming for global power and perhaps global primacy over the next generation — that it seeks to upend the American-led international system and create at least a competing, quasi-world order of its own.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Although there is increasing support for this view, </strong>I, for one, am skeptical of reports of China’s diabolical plans to dominate the world.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For now, at least,</strong> I see a major country, a rising power, aiming to project influence and shape the world order to its liking – as any nation in China’s position would do.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not that the U.S. </strong>has to like it and not that the U.S. shouldn't confront China and push back.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Hong Kong &amp; Taiwan in the Crosshairs.’ Two provocative moves</strong> – ones to track. More on the new Hong Kong national security law as the kickoff to a new Cold War below in my comments.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hong Kong.</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leader, Xi Jinping,</strong> has made one of his boldest political gambits yet, wagering that he can tame Hong Kong through&nbsp;national security legislation, despite the risk of fresh upheavals there and a new flash point with the United States.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan separatists and foreign forces</strong> that attempt to meddle in the reunification of China are becoming panicked and nervous as the Chinese mainland changes slightly the wording regarding the approach to reunification in the Friday's government work report by omitting the word "peaceful" ahead of "reunification.” [from The Global Times a newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's <em style="font-style: italic">People's Daily</em>.]</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The U.S. Shows Its Hand.’ China’s NPC</strong> wasn’t the only news. The White House and Congress may actually be about to form more orderly policies for confronting China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Will it more effective</strong> than the chaotic, ad hoc, response so far (wait didn’t China fill the Treasury with all those tariffs it ‘paid’?)? Stay tuned.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A New Consensus among Trump’s Warring China Factions.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Under pressure from the crisis,</strong> the president’s policymakers have found a new consensus on how to handle Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is now broad agreement</strong> that the United States should pursue an aggressive approach grounded in all-out strategic competition — a competition many believe is already well underway.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This new consensus</strong> was on display Wednesday, when Trump signed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf">a major document&nbsp;</a>on China policy and sent it to Congress.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The report,</strong> “United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China,” lays out the administration’s China policy in more clarity and detail than ever before.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China,’</strong> submitted to Congress by President Trump and required by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year&nbsp;2019.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Administration’s approach to the PRC</strong> reflects a fundamental reevaluation of how the United States understands and responds to the leaders of the world’s most populous country and second-largest national economy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States recognizes</strong> the long-term strategic competition between our two systems.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 1997 | A Look Back at HK's 'Special Status'</strong> by Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Jesse Helms.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">China’s new national security law will put at risk Hong Kong’s ‘special status.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">But as this 1997 WSJ op-ed shows, not for the first time.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 1992, </strong>my colleagues and I passed the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act, making U.S. support for the Joint Declaration a matter of law while pledging continued close bilateral relations based on Hong Kong's autonomy from China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More significantly,</strong> the Act directly linked Hong Kong's autonomy to future U.S.-Hong Kong relations by authorizing the president to determine whether Hong Kong is autonomous and, if it is not, to suspend laws according Hong Kong separate treatment from the PRC.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Therefore,</strong> if China wishes to benefit from U.S. investment, the vast majority of which goes through Hong Kong, then China had better not fool around with Hong Kong's autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But more than that,</strong> ‘While the ceremonies will formally transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, they will also signal the handover of responsibility for Hong Kong's fate to the U.S.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Are we still responsible?</strong> Again stay tuned.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">7.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> My Take: ‘Hong Kong’s New Security Law Could Be the Spark of a New Cold War’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Senator Helms in 1997</strong> believed that the U.S. had become the custodian of Hong Kong’s ‘fate.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Taking up</strong> that role today, ‘drawing a line in the sand,’ and then being frustratingly ineffective in countering China oppression of Hong Kong could be the spark – all out of proportion to U.S. national interests – that creates the resolve to contain, confront, and push back China, just as we did with the Soviet Union.</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go deeper - browse the posts below!</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think.</strong> And please forward the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">1. The NPC in Brief</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LMPNQ?track_p_id=73VxdZhi6S80T8_ctrxAKZE" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LMPNQ?track_p_id=dxInuy1erJbw%40b6S80T8_lF" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China paints a target on Hong Kong, but abandons one for growth</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LMPNQ?track_p_id=4StyV6S80T8_xkZtByHR3vC" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/6NfCwww2D32iDIPHqEfXzUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LMPNQ?track_p_id=8O2MZ4qeM6S80T8_Fy1lq6p" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China paints a target on Hong Kong, but abandons one for growth</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recently the central government has become increasingly insistent on the need for the law, arguing that protests in Hong Kong are a risk to the security of the whole country.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In his work report,</strong> Li Keqiang, the prime minister, spoke of establishing a “sound” legal system to ensure national security in Hong Kong, which has flourished in part because of its independent judiciary and political freedoms.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just before the NPC opened,</strong> China had signalled how it hopes to achieve that “soundness”: by adopting legislation that would require Hong Kong to prohibit acts of subversion against the Chinese government.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The move is unprecedented</strong> but not completely unexpected. Article 23 of China’s mini-constitution for Hong Kong, the Basic Law, requires the local government to enact such a law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a previous attempt,</strong> in 2003, was shelved after huge protests.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recently the central government</strong> has become increasingly insistent on the need for the law, arguing that protests in Hong Kong, especially violent ones last year which it claims were aided by foreign governments, are a risk to the security of the whole country.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many Hong Kongers</strong> worry that the resolution to be adopted at this NPC will formally spell the end of their liberties, steadily eroded by China since it reclaimed control of the city in 1997.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The proposal </strong>has already enraged activists in Hong Kong, and alarmed the financial markets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it was far from a central focus</strong> of Mr Li’s report, which was unprecedented in an entirely different respect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Every year since 1994</strong> the report has set a target for the year’s GDP growth rate.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Every year</strong> it has achieved that target and, often, a fair bit more.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Friday, however,</strong> he announced that China would not aim for a specific growth rate, so profound are the uncertainties amid the pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was,</strong> in the Chinese context, an act of humility.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The government normally</strong> uses a GDP target to broadcast its intentions for the economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The target has, for years,</strong> also given central leaders a way to manage local officials in far-flung places—a simple criterion by which to judge their performance.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So the government</strong> remained wedded to the practice of GDP targeting even as many economists criticised it for causing distorted incentives.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But with the economy</strong> contracting by 6.8% in the first quarter and still weak in the second, there were no easy options.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would take a giant recovery</strong> in the final two quarters of 2020 just to reach, say, 3% full-year growth, the lowest in four decades.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Were China to declare</strong> a low full-year target, that might have been seen as an admission of weakness.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Were China to declare a high target</strong> for the second half, that might have been unrealistic given the global turmoil.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the end,</strong> it abandoned the target altogether, perhaps to be resumed next year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Li laid out</strong> other targets that augur well for the economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He said the government</strong> would aim for a fiscal deficit of 3.6% of GDP, the highest on record and above last year’s 2.8% deficit.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With plans for the central and provincial governments</strong> to issue an additional 4.75trn yuan ($665bn) in bonds, plus a range of unconventional financing tools, the wider deficit is likely to reach an eye-watering 15% of GDP.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Li also said that the government</strong> wanted to stabilise the labour market, aiming to see 9m jobs created in China this year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past</strong> the need to hit GDP targets forced the government to stimulate the economy whenever growth slowed too much.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This year,</strong> the need to hit the employment target could force the government to increase its stimulus in the coming months.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And observers were chilled</strong> to note that in his ritualistic affirmation of the importance of “reunification” with Taiwan, Mr Li omitted the usual qualifier, “peaceful”.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is far from a threat of invasion,</strong> but rather a clear indication that, just as it is tightening the screws on Hong Kong, so it has no intention of easing pressure on Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">2. 'We're in a Cold War.'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/66Z5Xs?track_p_id=85AQXRxQa4mjtOA_oxlYfVV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/66Z5Xs?track_p_id=btY1YSrnCH314mjtOA_yIgS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'A good old-fashioned, tough, increasingly nasty Cold War'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/vKJGpgbyrPRMoqcJ4VB3XTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/66Z5Xs?track_p_id=1o4mjtOA_PyoMZaBQfSQAUM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/tZjb5H8Mpst1Ri99WcmNLUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/66Z5Xs?track_p_id=1T4mjtOA_ybRiIdI%40MU%40Afe" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'We're in a Cold War'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stephan Roach</strong> | Yale &amp; Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'We're embroiled in a good old-fashioned, tough, increasingly nasty Cold War right now.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RC5CeHuHDg4" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch </strong></a>Stephan's interview.&nbsp;</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stephan Roach: ‘In the, in the last 24 hours,</strong> we've had a trifecta of developments:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The annual address</strong> by the premier at the national people's Congress and the failure to provide a growth target for the first time since 1994.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then the proposed a new national security law,</strong> which has a dramatic impact on Hong Kong's independence, autonomy, and role as a financial center.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And thirdly, the U.S. threat</strong> to delist Chinese firms from their eliciting in U.S. security markets.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Put them all together</strong> and you've just got a confluence, a swirl of events, which raise real questions about not only our relationship with China, but China's relationship with the rest of the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We're in a Cold War.</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And these are exactly the types</strong> of confrontational developments on both sides of the relationship that you would expect in a Cold War.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I read with great interest,</strong> the U.S. latest statement on our relationship with China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The White House</strong> released a document on the 20th of May called the "United States Strategic Approach to the People's Republic of China." ’ [more on that below]</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is a Cold War</strong> manifesto by the Trump administration.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When you were in the midst of a Cold War,</strong> actions like China's new proposed national security law in Hong Kong, and the delisting threats by the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. administrations once again threating Huawei - these are the types of escalating fractions you would expect.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if the future</strong> is anything like we're seeing overnight and likely to see in the weeks and months ahead, it's going to get worse between now and November 3rd.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has become</strong> one of the top issues in the presidential campaign.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Look no further</strong> than the Republican Party's on the strategic election document, the so-called ‘Corona Big Book,’ which was leaked on Politico a few weeks ago - attack China is a main thread of, of the campaign.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So there's no reasonable hope</strong> to repair this relationship between now and November 3rd, and we'll see where it goes afterwards.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we're embroiled</strong> in a good old-fashioned, tough, increasingly nasty Cold War right now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">3. China's Goal: World Domination</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OjPs0?track_p_id=5VKfpx630mVS_SfvhVdemgn" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OjPs0?track_p_id=2tH630mVS_tkYmyY4SyX4EE" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Xi Jinping Makes Clear That China's Goal Is to Dominate the World&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/pDZE-9a6D3MLdrUYUC2U-zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OjPs0?track_p_id=2i6630mVS_OoUHZUusPUBrM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OjPs0?track_p_id=6uj1EOC630mVS_k1%40StyKAU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Xi Jinping Makes Clear That China's Goal Is to Dominate the World&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hal Brands</strong> | Fletcher School of Law &amp; Diplomacy and AEI</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is hardly acting like a country that lacks a grand geopolitical design.’&nbsp;</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A long-standing trope</strong> in the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/12/wotr-podcast-full-steam-ahead-naval-competition-with-china/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">debate</a>&nbsp;on&nbsp;<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2019/01/the-party-congress-test-a-minimum-standard-for-analyzing-beijings-intentions/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">that</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/fp_20181018_us_china_transcript.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">subject</a>&nbsp;is that China itself doesn’t know what it seeks to achieve, that&nbsp;its leaders haven’t yet worked out how far Beijing’s influence should reach.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet there is a growing body </strong>of evidence that the Chinese government is indeed aiming for global power and perhaps global primacy over the next generation — that it seeks to upend the American-led international system and create at least a competing, quasi-world order of its own.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is hardly acting</strong> like a country that lacks a grand geopolitical design.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether it is</strong> the naval shipbuilding program that is churning out vessels at astonishing rate; the drive to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-31/china-s-influence-operation-goes-beyond-who-taiwan-and-covid-19" rel="nofollow">control</a>existing international organizations and build new ones; the projection of military power in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/china-as-a-polar-great-power/22493FFC041E6739DAED329CCB71F688#fndtn-information" rel="nofollow">Arctic</a>, the Indian Ocean and points beyond; the quest to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/made-in-china-2025-the-industrial-plan-that-china-doesnt-want-anyone-talking-about/" rel="nofollow">dominate</a>&nbsp;the world’s high-tech industries; the ever-more&nbsp;<a href="https://halbrands.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/60-5-07-Brands.pdf" rel="nofollow">systematic</a>&nbsp;efforts to support authoritarian regimes and weaken democratic institutions; or the Belt and Road Initiative that&nbsp;<a href="https://tnsr.org/2019/07/unlocking-the-gates-of-eurasia-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-and-its-implications-for-u-s-grand-strategy/" rel="nofollow">encompasses</a>&nbsp;multiple continents.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China probably</strong> doesn’t have a step-by-step checklist for achieving global primacy, any more than the Soviet Union&nbsp;did in the 1970s.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders</strong> aren’t insensitive to costs and obstacles: Xi may ritualistically restate the importance of unifying the Chinese nation, but that&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/resplinodell/status/1259883799254634498" rel="nofollow">doesn’t mean</a>he’s hell-bent on war over Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet we ought to recognize</strong> that the debate about what China wants is growing stale, because China’s leaders and behavior have increasingly answered that question.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">4. Hong Kong &amp; Taiwan in the Crosshairs</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">'Death Knell' for Hong Kong?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gtkC8?track_p_id=08NuACE_X5zk6hwUBS2UcxX" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gtkC8?track_p_id=8UdcOK5nc8NuACE_JK21x%403" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s full-scale assault on democracy in Hong Kong demands a U.S. response</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/CheJTzr0i1I4RqtCilp82jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gtkC8?track_p_id=6hOiEKk8NuACE_xDUW1H3AW" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gtkC8?track_p_id=eRzxPr6twOpCpSd8NuACE_S" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s full-scale assault on democracy in Hong Kong demands a U.S. response</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Editorial Board</strong> | Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result could be to speed the conversion of China’s most free city into just another provincial capital.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The full scale assault</strong> on freedom in Hong Kong launched this week by China’s Communist Party leadership could mark a fateful turning point in its relations with the democratic world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until now the regime of Xi Jinping</strong> has sought to suppress a protest movement in the former British colony with tear gas, arrests and prosecutions of opposition leaders.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Having failed,</strong> Beijing on Friday unveiled what amounts to its nuclear option —&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3085617/two-sessions-2020-national-security-law-hong-kong-will" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">a new legal framework&nbsp;</a>that would allow mainland security agencies to establish themselves in the territory and enforce a ban on “secessionist or subversive activity, the organizing of terrorist acts” and “activities of foreign and external interference.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Hong Kong opposition leaders</strong> were quick to point out,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/beijing-style-repression-is-coming-to-hong-kong-what-will-washington-do/2020/05/22/d1b2c36a-9b98-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_2" rel="nofollow">the move would effectively gut&nbsp;</a>the “one country, two systems” principle that has allowed the survival of the rule of law and freedom of speech and assembly in Hong Kong since it returned to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Friday, </strong>Mr. Pompeo issued a blistering&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/prc-proposal-to-impose-national-security-legislation-on-hong-kong/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">statement</a>&nbsp;saying the pending People’s Congress action would “be a death knell” for Hong Kong’s autonomy and would “inevitably impact our assessment of One Country, Two Systems and the status of the territory.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That was an unmistakable reference</strong> to the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-hong-kongs-special-status-in-the-us-is-touchy-territory/2019/11/19/b32326ac-0b4b-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_7" rel="nofollow">special trading privileges&nbsp;</a>Hong Kong has enjoyed under U.S. law since 1992.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under an amendment Congress</strong> adopted last year, the State Department must issue a report on whether the territory remains “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/02d9b846-8e3d-11e9-a24d-b42f641eca37" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">sufficiently autonomous</a>” to justify the measures, which include exemption from tariffs applied to mainland exports.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If a negative report</strong> by the State Department led to a repeal of the privileges, Hong Kong’s economy would be devastated — as would a lot of U.S. businesses. The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-hong-kongs-special-status-in-the-us-is-touchy-territory/2019/11/19/b32326ac-0b4b-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_8" rel="nofollow">estimated $38 billion&nbsp;</a>in annual U.S.-Hong Kong trade would be at stake; so would the regional headquarters that some 290 U.S. companies maintain in the city.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result could be to speed</strong> the conversion of China’s most free city into just another provincial capital.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6z44WG?track_p_id=2Ep69gM3y_eiXowDYcUz5s3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6z44WG?track_p_id=2AE69gM3y_15FyhKC2sExiz" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Moves to Tame Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6z44WG?track_p_id=aLaVRLsNa4369gM3y_g4eCa" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/pWiqw6WowOqkqwHGr1MUMEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6z44WG?track_p_id=7rhAiBMI69gM3y_yzdglbcN" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Moves to Tame Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chris Buckley&nbsp;and&nbsp;Keith Bradsher</strong> | New York Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made one of his boldest political gambits yet. ’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leader, Xi Jinping,</strong> has made one of his boldest political gambits yet, wagering that he can tame Hong Kong through&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/world/asia/hong-kong-china.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">national security legislation</a>, despite the risk of fresh upheavals there and a new flash point with the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavirus-china-economy.html" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">security proposals, unveiled on Friday&nbsp;</strong></a>at the delayed opening of China’s annual legislative session, scotched any expectations that the coronavirus pandemic might have left Mr. Xi humbled, cautious or ready for compromise.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the contrary,</strong> he has chosen to press an offensive over Hong Kong, riling Western powers, at a time of global crisis while China is struggling to pull out of its sharpest economic slump since Mao’s time.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi appears to believe</strong> that the greater risk to him comes from allowing Hong Kong to continue as a stubborn base for protesters who challenge Communist Party rule and increasingly reject Chinese sovereignty over the territory.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And he appears steeled</strong> for any economic, political and diplomatic blowback, ignoring admonitions from the United States and other Western powers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7HEOqO?track_p_id=2Wf5zSnNe_IBiumjiebTjHE" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TMRELHqhsIAO-3JasyRka0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7HEOqO?track_p_id=6VcRe%4065zSnNe_XyvGCmNmN" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">US’ HK sanction card won’t intimidate China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7HEOqO?track_p_id=8eoK%40vn335zSnNe_LT6NR2j" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/FPwHUm10WftclS_UbzDyMki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7HEOqO?track_p_id=7A23VfPe5zSnNe_ZvzOooU6" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">US’ HK sanction card won’t intimidate China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's latest announcement showed its strategic contempt for Washington's tactics of pressuring Beijing.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Global Times a newspaper </strong>under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's <em style="font-style: italic">People's Daily</em>.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After China's National People's Congress (NPC)</strong> announced it will formulate laws to safeguard national security establish and improve the legal in Hong Kong, Washington has nearly hit the ceiling.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> said the US will "address that issue very strongly" if China does so.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US State Department</strong> even hinted it might reconsider Hong Kong's special status in US law.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some heavyweights in US Congress,</strong> including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, also made tough rhetoric over the case.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But being hopping mad</strong> is proof of their incapability to do anything about it.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When China announced the plan,</strong> it meant Beijing had already evaluated how Washington would respond, and has been prepared for possible challenges.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The possibility</strong> of China retreating under US pressure is zero.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US</strong> does have tangible options in its toolkit to exert pressure on China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But after the two-year long trade war,</strong> China has encountered all possible US punitive tools and has built its resilience.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China's latest announcement</strong> showed its strategic contempt for Washington's tactics of pressuring Beijing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US has been hit hard</strong> by the novel coronavirus, and it will be interesting to see the country try to throw its weight around like in the early stage of the trade war against China.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong</strong> belongs to China, not the US.’                  </p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The latter has only two choices</strong> when it comes to the city: be a friendly cooperator, or stay away.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China will never offer</strong> the US a third option.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;              </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Is Taiwan Next?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ZOjAW?track_p_id=5vDsJP7WXZk6_%40Ds14KafWY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TMRELHqhsIAO-3JasyRka0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ZOjAW?track_p_id=5O%405o27WXZk6_uhF5Ctcwqb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan separatists panic as mainland drops 'peaceful' in reunification narrative&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ZOjAW?track_p_id=716aXeWp7WXZk6_dwWJ6Hlo" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/GEt3l1KLn6vyFaYXyTeMmUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7ZOjAW?track_p_id=07WXZk6_3lhiTrwkXoWCya3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan separatists panic as mainland drops 'peaceful' in reunification narrative&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Taiwan separatists and foreign forces know will be punished sooner or later.</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Global Times a newspaper </strong>under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's <em style="font-style: italic">People's Daily</em>.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan separatists and foreign forces</strong> that attempt to meddle in the reunification of China are becoming panicked and nervous as the Chinese mainland changes slightly the wording regarding the approach to reunification in the Friday's government work report by omitting the word "peaceful" ahead of "reunification.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This new narrative</strong> has sent a clear signal that the mainland will be more determined and pragmatic in diversifying its approach to realizing its obligatory goal of reunifying Taiwan, since the separatist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities and other political forces on the island have chosen to refuse the sincerity of a peaceful solution repeatedly encouraged by the mainland, said the experts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reuters said on Friday</strong> in a report that this change is "an apparent policy shift that comes" as mainland ties with Taiwan "continue on a downward spiral." '</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Wall Street Journal</strong> also said in a report on the matter that this is "breaking with nearly three decades of precedent in a sign that it is taking a tougher tack" toward the island.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason why Taiwan separatists and foreign forces</strong> are becoming more sensitive and even panic over the change is that they know their repeated provocations to challenge China's sovereignty and bottom line will be punished sooner or later.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'And they might finally </strong>learn the message behind the new narrative from the mainland as being "one step closer to a non-peaceful solution," Li Xiaobing, a Taiwan studies expert at Nankai University in Tianjin, noted.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">5. The U.S. Shows Its Hand</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rZ3Ue?track_p_id=831Ntutd38xKSsw_NdHefZL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rZ3Ue?track_p_id=eQSMuL2Jwnr4adM8xKSsw_I" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A New Consensus among Trump’s Warring China Factions&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/VM-p9CBXvQfRvfneActchjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rZ3Ue?track_p_id=aWLdfMRMihF8xKSsw_boWro" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/eDDxdBRBso_CrwoIXKoZ1Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rZ3Ue?track_p_id=9vsWjozchW8xKSsw_D5UfTS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A New Consensus among Trump’s Warring China Factions&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Josh Rogin</strong> | The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under pressure from the crisis, the president’s policymakers have found a new consensus on how to handle Beijing.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>the 16-page ‘United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And read</strong> the excerpts in the next post.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For years,</strong> the Trump administration’s China strategy seesawed between those who wanted a wholesale rethink of the relationship and those who advocated for more continuity — with President Trump alternating between the camps.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But now the&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_1" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">coronavirus</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-chinas-authoritarian-system-made-the-pandemic-worse/2020/04/17/2a72c652-80ba-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_1" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">pandemic</strong></a>&nbsp;has brought about a dramatic change.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Under pressure from the crisis,</strong> the president’s policymakers have found a new consensus on how to handle Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is now broad agreement</strong> that the United States should pursue an aggressive approach grounded in all-out strategic competition — a competition many believe is already well underway.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A senior administration official</strong> told me China’s behavior throughout the crisis has compelled everyone in the administration to acknowledge the nature of the Chinese Communist Party-run system and the need to push back.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The coronavirus crisis</strong> has highlighted all these truths and put light on all these dynamics that are impossible with a straight face now to deny,” the official said.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This is now the prevailing view</strong> . . . It is quite literally a consensus, and it wasn’t necessarily a consensus before.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This new consensus</strong> was on display Wednesday, when Trump signed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">a major document&nbsp;</a>on China policy and sent it to Congress.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The report,</strong> “United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China,” lays out the administration’s China policy in more clarity and detail than ever before.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The paper argues</strong> that the past 40 years of U.S. strategy toward China were rooted in the now obviously false assumption that engagement and assistance would encourage China to open up economically and politically.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has abused engagement</strong> to shape our system to its benefit while expanding its power and influence in malign ways.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “To respond to Beijing’s challenge,</strong> the Administration has adopted a competitive approach to the PRC, based on a clear-eyed assessment of the CCP’s intentions and actions, a reappraisal of the United States’ many strategic advantages and shortfalls, and a tolerance of greater bilateral friction,” it states.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89jNom?track_p_id=2DH9FhzYc_C2ESdGEeqCpyh" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/xQSsps2HFUSWDfAKWQhNZki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89jNom?track_p_id=9ZLee2pEec9FhzYc_Q6GmKB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89jNom?track_p_id=dvkWXYOCR4YUcA9FhzYc_Bb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">White House</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Administration’s approach to the PRC reflects a fundamental reevaluation of how the United States understands and responds to the leaders of the world’s most populous country and second largest national economy.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The ‘United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China,’</strong> submitted to Congress by President Trump and required by National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year&nbsp;2019.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>the 16-page report</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_________________________________________________</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PRC’s rapid economic development</strong> and increased engagement with the world did not lead to convergence with the citizen-centric, free and open order as the United States had hoped.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP</strong> has chosen instead to exploit the free and open rules based order and attempt to reshape the international system in its favor.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing openly acknowledges</strong> that it seeks to transform the international order to align with CCP interests and ideology.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP’s expanding use</strong> of economic, political, and military power to compel acquiescence from nation states harms vital American interests and undermines the sovereignty and dignity of countries and individuals around the world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Administration’s approach to the PRC</strong> reflects a fundamental reevaluation of how the United States understands and responds to the leaders of the world’s most populous country and second largest national economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States recognizes</strong> the long-term strategic competition between our two systems.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through a whole-of-government approach</strong> and guided by a return to principled realism, as articulated by the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">2017 National Security Strategy of the United States of America</a>, the United States Government will continue to protect American interests and advance American influence.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> we remain open to constructive, results-oriented engagement and cooperation from China where our interests align.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We continue to engage</strong> with PRC leaders in a respectful yet clear-eyed manner, challenging Beijing to uphold its commitments.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">6. 1997 | A Look Back at HK's 'Special Status'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Rti8u?track_p_id=7NXiotJP7bRQmk_Ip6bQwD3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JcS8gvog7zCvXqcq794pHUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Rti8u?track_p_id=6iSyJ3p7bRQmk_%40xSaXbqIw" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1997 | 'We Will Take Up Hong Kong's Fight'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/3Q5-dhBOSaB_49Dzt9HUqTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Rti8u?track_p_id=5MGsQa7bRQmk_Fxx3WQNcfk" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/JcS8gvog7zCvXqcq794pHUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Rti8u?track_p_id=07bRQmk_mBPg2BZ5CV4wgJt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'We Will Take Up Hong Kong's Fight'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jesse Helms</strong> | former U.S. Senator &amp; Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the ceremonies will formally transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, they will also signal the handover of responsibility for Hong Kong's fate to the U.S.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Background:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> In 1984 China and the UK</strong> signed the&nbsp;Sino–British Joint Declaration covering the UK's handover to China in 1997.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In 1992, 'United States–Hong Kong Policy Act'</strong> became law - it provides for the U.S. to continue to treat HK as separate from the Mainland for matters concerning trade <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export" title="Export">export</a> and economics control after the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfer_of_the_sovereignty_of_Hong_Kong" title="Transfer of the sovereignty of Hong Kong">1997 handover</a>.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">The Act was amended on November 27, 2019 by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Human_Rights_and_Democracy_Act">Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act</a>.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/05/us/politics/00helms.html" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘NYT 2008 Obit.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'Jesse Helms,</strong> the former North Carolina senator with the courtly manner and mossy drawl who turned his hard-edged conservatism against civil rights, gay rights, foreign aid and modern art, died early Friday. He was 86.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Helms</strong> became a beacon for the right-wing of American politics, a lightning rod for the left and, often, a mighty pain for presidents whatever their political leaning.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I didn’t come to Washington</strong> to be a ‘yes man’ for any president, Democrat or Republican,” he said in an interview in 1989. “I didn’t come to Washington to get along and win any popularity contests.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wow!</strong> Sure miss the eras of principled Senators - even miss Jesse, no matter how much I hated his domestic policies at the time.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_______________________________________________</p><h3 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Senator Jesse Helm's WSJ op-ed, June 20, 1997</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the upcoming ceremonies</strong> marking the return of Hong Kong to China, the most important participant will not be China's President Jiang Zemin or Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair, but U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Secretary Albright's decision</strong> to go to Hong Kong, but not to attend the swearing in of the provisional legislature [that replaced the directly-elected legislative body established by Britain in 1985] on July 1, launches a new period in which the U.S. will no longer have the excuse of a close friendship with Britain to let China's broken promises on Hong Kong go unanswered.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In that sense,</strong> while the ceremonies will formally transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, they will also signal the handover of responsibility for Hong Kong's fate to the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 1992, </strong>my colleagues and I in the U.S. Congress passed, and President George Bush signed, the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act, making U.S. support for the Joint Declaration a matter of law while pledging continued close bilateral relations based on Hong Kong's autonomy from China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More significantly,</strong> the Act directly linked Hong Kong's autonomy to future U.S.-Hong Kong relations by authorizing the president to determine whether Hong Kong is autonomous and, if it is not, to suspend laws according Hong Kong separate treatment from the PRC.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Therefore,</strong> if China wishes to benefit from U.S. investment, the vast majority of which goes through Hong Kong, then China had better not fool around with Hong Kong's autonomy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. Congress</strong> also strongly supported Hong Kong's elections in 1991 and 1995 and criticized Chinese violations of the Joint Declaration--especially the creation of the provisional legislature which is to replace the elected Legislative Council at midnight on June 30.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed China</strong> has gone well beyond undoing Governor Patten's modest reform package, abolishing the Legco outright.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through its puppet proxies</strong> in the provisional legislature, China has unleashed a barrage of attacks on Hong Kong's civil liberties.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even so,</strong> the U.S. has not gone as far as it must in drawing a line in the sand over Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Clearly, successive American administrations</strong> have throughout the transition deferred to Britain regarding Chinese violations of the Joint Declaration.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Using the excuse</strong> that the U.S. "does not offer legal interpretations of agreements to which it is not a party," which became the stock phrase of State Department officials, America has watched China announce, then carry out one violation of the Joint Declaration after another.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Secretary Albright's decision to snub</strong> the provisional legislature shows that the administration recognizes that the fight over Hong Kong is just beginning and that with Britain gone, only the U.S. has the will and the way to stand up for Hong Kong.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">7. My Take</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5b80tE?track_p_id=ephWxR11lhj42ka8S6JWo_Y" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5b80tE?track_p_id=9GLvW3Ewzu8S6JWo_cehgqO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong’s New Security Law Could Be the Spark of a New Cold Ward</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5b80tE?track_p_id=8kUwxTbgt8S6JWo_lZrzyzu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">https://www.linkedin.com/in/malcolmriddell/</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">CHINADebate</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Malcolm Riddell | CHINADebate</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An elegant, if dangerous, solution.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The implementation</strong> of the new national security law in Hong Kong may become the Archduke Ferdinand<strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>(whose assassination, insignificant as it was, sparked World War One) that sparks a new Cold War.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With that,</strong> Xi is, maybe for the first time since time Tiananmen, risking worldwide condemnation for an action seen within the Party as necessary for dealing with an ‘internal affair’ of China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">(<strong style="font-weight: bold">Why China’s treatment</strong> of the Uigurs didn’t make the grade I will leave to someone more insightful than I to explain.)</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Besides worldwide condemnation</strong> and ratcheting up tensions with the U.S. regardless of who is president, the move may well be the ‘death knell’ of Hong Kong, as Secretary Pompeo has said.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With the new law in place,</strong> Pompeo will have a tough time certifying that Hong Kong is indeed autonomous – and Congress may well revoke Hong Kong’s ‘special trading status.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even before the new law</strong>, financial services were drawing up contingency moves away from Hong Kong in response to the unrest.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">After watching</strong> the Hong Kong government’s inability to bring the demonstrators to heel, ‘Xi was at the end of his rope,’ says Liz Economy of the Council on Foreign Relations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What could</strong> Xi have done?</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. He could have</strong> backed down.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But he would have looked weak</strong> to the elders of the Party who will decide if he continues in office for a third term and beyond. He would have looked weak, he believes, to his foreign adversaries. And he would have emboldened Taiwan to resist even more strenuously his efforts to unify.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Besides, as H.L. Menken said,</strong> ‘Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For Xi Jinping,</strong> it is the haunting fear that someone, somewhere in China, is not under his and the Party’s control.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So he couldn’t leave Hong Kong</strong> (whose guaranteed rights had already suffered under his predecessors) well enough alone.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. He could have sent in the PLA,</strong> shooting demonstrators and running over them with tanks.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the setback</strong> after Tiananmen still haunts China’s leaders.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. He could implement</strong> the national security law, bypassing Hong Kong’s deadlocked legislature. Compared to the other two options, this one is an elegant, if dangerous, solution.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He can stop the demonstrations</strong> and even more get control of Hong Kong.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And he can do so</strong> without looking weak or firing a shot.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He does risk international condemnation</strong> and possibly the loss of China as a financial center and gateway for foreign companies and capital to China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tolerably losses,</strong> he no doubt believes, for the outcomes achieved.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Or are the</strong> losses tolerable?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi may be underestimating</strong> Hong Kong as a symbol to the capitalist, free world, especially to the U.S.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In 1997,</strong> just before Britain’s handover of Hong Kong to China, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee wrote in a WSJ op-ed:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the ceremonies</strong> will formally transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, they will also signal the handover of responsibility for Hong Kong's fate to the U.S.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Speaking about U.S. laws</strong> protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy and granting ‘special status,’ he wrote: ‘Therefore, if China wishes to benefit from U.S. investment, the vast majority of which goes through Hong Kong, then China had better not fool around with Hong Kong's autonomy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even so,</strong> the U.S. has not gone as far as it must in drawing a line in the sand over Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Which brings us back</strong> to why the new security law in Hong Kong could become the Archduke Ferdinand of a new Cold War.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Twenty-three years after Senator Helms op-ed,</strong> with U.S.-China relations at a low point, that sense of U.S. as Hong Kong’s protector against China may reemerge with a vengeance.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And while the options</strong> open to the U.S. are limited, ‘Freedom for Hong Kong’ is a more potent rallying cry – for Congress in particular - than ‘Reduce the Trade Deficit’ to kick off a new Cold War.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A trade war is not a Cold War.</strong> A technology war is not a Cold War. A stock market delisting is not a Cold War.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A Cold War pits the ideologies</strong> of two powerful countries against each other. It brings those countries nose-to-nose, over time, on an array of fronts.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here,</strong> as with the ‘old-fashioned’ U.S.-Soviet Cold War, it’s freedom versus oppression.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This is something</strong> the American people and leaders understand from conviction and experience.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And unfortunately </strong>it is also something that politicians can use to their political advantage.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Senator Helms in 1997</strong> believed that the U.S. had become the custodian of Hong Kong’s ‘fate.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Taking up</strong> that role today, ‘drawing a line in the sand,’ and then being frustratingly ineffective in countering China oppression of Hong Kong could be the spark – all out of proportion to U.S. national interests – that creates the resolve to contain, confront, and push back China, just as we did with the Soviet Union.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If that is the result, </strong>I hope that somewhere in America leadership emerges to guide us through without disaster.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 20, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8r1oRs?track_p_id=7zcAZTaQ4jiKy6_Raw13YhL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8r1oRs?track_p_id=b42zXYuOUBOP4jiKy6_kjDg" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Other China Virus</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8r1oRs?track_p_id=9HAqzZ36BB4jiKy6_6Ie5rl" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Exxxxxxmpty title</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today's issue:</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. The Other China Virus.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a China virus</strong> ravaging the world, preying in particular on Americans of all stripes,’ writes Michael Swaine.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This pernicious pathogen</strong>, labeled by those few American analysts as yet uninfected as the <strong style="font-weight: bold">Death by China (DBC)</strong> virus (named after a&nbsp;book by one of its more famous victims [<em style="font-style: italic">Peter Navarro, Assistant to President Trump &amp; Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy</em>], has always been out there, circulating in the frenzied thoughts of purveyors of the Yellow Peril.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At first, it only infected the arguments</strong> of highly polemical fringe analysts whom mainstream analysts had previously thought should be kept locked in the attic like a crazy relative.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It began appearing</strong> in venerable U.S. newspapers and journals such as the&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">New York Times and</em>&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em>&nbsp;and then spread more broadly into the public.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is no known cure</strong> for the DBC virus.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Running Against China.’</strong></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">From the Right: ‘With the economy in shambles </strong>and the pandemic ravaging the country, making the election a referendum on China is perhaps Mr. Trump’s only chance to extend his White House tenure past January 2021.’: Walter Russell Mead</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">From the Left: ‘Desperate to obscure the reality</strong> of more than 90,000 American deaths and 36 million unemployed amid Mr. Trump’s utterly incompetent handling of the pandemic, Republicans have no better strategy than to play the China card.’: Susan Rice</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Proving that </strong>the right and the left can agree on something.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘The View from European Companies in China.’</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> The first part</strong> of my terrific interview with President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm: ‘Relations between Europe and China </strong>seem strained lately. What’s behind that?'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What really annoyed us</strong> was when European people, as well as companies, donated money and equipment in January, the Chinese government asked us to lie low and not talk about it. So we didn't.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then all of a sudden</strong> we see China celebrating any mask that they landed in Europe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And of course on top of it,</strong> we are now experiencing the rhetoric, the assertiveness, the bullying of the ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomats you have written about.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We now enjoy</strong> Wolf Warriors in our capitals - in Stockholm and Paris and Prague and other places.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a very sad story</strong> to see how the propaganda ministry - within four to six weeks - managed to turn China into a problem for Europeans, and how China’s standing in Europe is eroding by the day.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘The Upcoming National People's Congress.’</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Job relief, </strong>rather than stimulus, will likely be the key theme coming out of the NPC,’ writes Houze Song.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing will likely emphasize</strong> the unemployment target this year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even if an annual GDP target</strong> is announced—perhaps in the 2-3% range—the unemployment target will be the more politically binding one.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This signals to local officials</strong> that the focus will be on maintaining jobs and sustaining livelihoods rather than pouring capital toward shovel-ready projects.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘China's Challenge to the Dollar.’</strong></span> ‘Beijing still has major hurdles to overcome before the RMB can truly emerge as a primary global reserve currency,’ says Hank Paulson.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And China’s much-touted successes</strong> in the realm of fintech—including its rapid deployment of mobile payment systems and the recent pilot project by the People’s Bank of China to test a digital RMB—will not change that.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A digital RMB would still be a Chinese RMB. No one is reinventing money.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">6. ‘The Republican's China-Bashing Playbook.’</strong></span> ‘Note - don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban -- attack China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This from </strong>‘The leaked 57-page "Corona Big Book" -- reportedly disseminated by the GOP's Senate-campaign arm that urges GOP candidates to bash China between now and November.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stephan Roach</strong> at Yale says: ‘It rests on three premises, that:’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the novel coronavirus</strong> came from a lab in Wuhan,'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'the Chinese government</strong> covered up the outbreak and'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the Trump administration </strong>would have acted forcefully had it only known the real "truth." ’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first claim is dubious;</strong> the next, ambiguous; and the third one, not credible.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My Take on The Other China Virus</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On the spectrum</strong> from Panda Hugger to China Hawk, I tend to fall on the hawkish side.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This isn’t from</strong> any animus toward China. I have great affection for the Chinese people; the government and Party, not so much.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My hawkishness</strong> comes from an alertness to any threat – from anywhere – to the United States.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now, as in a horror movie,</strong> the threat is coming from inside the house.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The debate</strong> about what China is and what that means for the U.S. seems over – at least among Republicans. China is now only an enemy that must be dealt with.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That is what President Trump </strong>and the Republicans have decided to run on in the current election cycle.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In another era,</strong> I would have been astonished by the president’s many unfounded charges against China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said,</strong> I am astonished by the ‘Corona Big Book’ that has been distributed to Republican Senators and Republican senatorial candidates.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It is filled </strong>with twisted facts and conspiracy theories, complete with scripts for candidates to use in their campaigns and for sitting Senators to use in defending the president.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yes, I know </strong>elections are dirty.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Swiftboating’</strong> John Kerry was despicable.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Presidential candidate Nixon’s backchannelling</strong> to Hanoi to scuttle peace talks in exchange for a better deal if he were elected cost American lives – and was likewise despicable.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But neither though </strong>was a threat to the country.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Campaigning on China conspiracy theories </strong>however is.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not only does</strong> it rouse voters’ emotions and lead to demands for tough actions, it encourages leaders to takes those actions, not from careful policy analysis, but for the hope of bump in the polls.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not the preferred </strong>way to deal with China, especially if you do consider it an enemy.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hawkish as I am, </strong>I find that the steady anti-China drumbeat is arousing my natural contrariness.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I now search</strong> for the arguments that explain why China is not a threat.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I am finding </strong>precious few of those these days.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> what you think. And please forward the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">1. The Other China Virus</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y4lQ8?track_p_id=4JoEx8tHwGU_JOydlyGjCwt" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/xgRB_hzdpSqeaAHfVFiQaUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y4lQ8?track_p_id=5G6UK18tHwGU_fzHUOfjRTU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The China Virus (No, Not That One)'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/6gEMK6yBDZLeKaTxxH6Vzjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y4lQ8?track_p_id=1r8tHwGU_CgssqX4Y1mvRon" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/LIohJ91xnGY_1kFovCQrdki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y4lQ8?track_p_id=3r4o8tHwGU_LBNDXLs1ML4S" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The China Virus (No, Not That One)</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The National Interest</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael D. Swaine </strong>| Carnegie Endowment</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What makes the virus so pernicious and difficult to eradicate is how it attaches itself to U.S. fears and insecurities regarding China but inflates them enormously.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a China virus</strong> ravaging the world, preying in particular on Americans of all stripes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its symptoms are clear:</strong> a feverish, paranoid state of mind that resists sedatives and generates an uncontrollable urge to cough out endless op-eds, reports, and speeches describing in ever more terrifying ways how China is going to destroy all that Americans hold dear.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The only solution,</strong> victims of this virus assert, is to isolate and weaken Beijing and intimidate it with massive levels of defense spending, the go-to solution for virtually all of the United States’ foreign policy ills.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This pernicious pathogen</strong>, labeled by those few American analysts as yet uninfected as the <span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Death by China (DBC)</strong></span> virus (named after a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Death-China-Confronting-Dragon-paperback/dp/0134319036" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">book</a>&nbsp;by one of its more famous victims [<em style="font-style: italic">Peter Navarro, Assistant to President Trump &amp; Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy</em>], has always been out there, circulating in the frenzied thoughts of purveyors of the Yellow Peril.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The </strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">DBC</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> virus</strong> gradually crept out into the world as China began to grow economically and militarily.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At first, it only infected the arguments</strong> of highly polemical fringe analysts whom mainstream analysts had previously thought should be kept locked in the attic like a crazy relative.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It began appearing</strong> in venerable U.S. newspapers and journals such as the&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">New York Times and</em>&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em>&nbsp;and then spread more broadly into the public, infecting those most vulnerable to tales of stolen jobs and technology, lost American dominance, and an overturned world order.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is no known cure</strong> for the <span style="color: #d0021b">DBC</span> virus.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is so impervious</strong> to facts and logic that it has&nbsp;become conventional wisdom, seemingly obvious to all, and not requiring proof.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What makes the virus</strong> so pernicious and difficult to eradicate is how it attaches itself to actual facts and U.S. fears and insecurities regarding China, but inflates them enormously while posing open-ended (and sometimes far-fetched) hypotheticals.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In some more serious cases,</strong> the virus simply contributes to hyperventilating over how some nefarious, world-destroying Chinese plot is already afoot.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Fortunately,</strong> although the <span style="color: #d0021b">DBC</span> virus running rampant in Washington has no cure yet, its spread can be limited and its effects can be reduced significantly,’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘through a combination</strong> of national distancing by other countries, widespread BS testing that employs actual facts, and a truth serum of sorts that presents a more realistic and balanced strategy for dealing with both the threats and opportunities China poses.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If none of these treatments work,</strong> then the virus probably will not abate until it has foisted tragic consequences on the United States and other countries so severe and so undeniable that victims are forced to adopt a genuinely fact-based, pragmatic, and realistic approach to China.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">2. Running Against China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/wR6bdfuWnHEuMyJ-t5SQDDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-style:italic;">In President Trump’s notes used at the March 19 White House news briefing, “Corona” was replaced with “Chinese” in a reference to the coronavirus.</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rKn56?track_p_id=8ppkEcikn9Iv3tu_SCQ26B6" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rKn56?track_p_id=6aXqBwD9Iv3tu_YB5bc%401jS" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">From the Right | 'Trump’s Best Re-Election Bet: Run Against China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rKn56?track_p_id=09Iv3tu_U%40u5beVSjLdcmYu" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/RHdQybfRrSSL5ORuOTDyuUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rKn56?track_p_id=bSyPBz%40SUJ1l9Iv3tu_g2Jt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump’s Best Re-Election Bet: Run Against China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Walter Russell Mead</strong> | Bard College &amp; the Hudson Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Mr. Trump, campaigning against China may be his best shot at another four years in power.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘November may still </strong>be a long way away, and the coronavirus has thoroughly scrambled American politics.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it’s increasingly clear</strong> that President Trump’s likeliest path to re-election runs through Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the economy in shambles </strong>and the pandemic ravaging the country, making the election a referendum on China is perhaps Mr. Trump’s only chance to extend his White House tenure past January 2021.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why Beijing?’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the first place,</strong> because Americans increasingly disapprove of its behavior.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a recent Pew&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/13/americans-see-spread-of-disease-as-top-international-threat-along-with-terrorism-nuclear-weapons-cyberattacks/?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">poll</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> 68% of Republicans and 62% of Democrats considered China’s power and influence a major threat to the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, the issue plays</strong> to Mr. Trump’s strengths.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The core of the president’s appeal</strong> has always been his ability to portray himself as an antiestablishment outsider come to drain the swamp and put the country back on the right track.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. failure</strong> to recognize and respond to the danger posed by rising Chinese power was, Mr. Trump can plausibly say, one of the greatest strategic blunders in world history.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The president’s supporters </strong>can concede he sometimes get the details wrong, while arguing that on China he—and not the establishment—got the big picture right.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally, a China campaign</strong> would create real problems for the Democrats.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some of this</strong> would be personal for Joe Biden.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even if they take a harsher tone on China,</strong> Democrats will have a difficult time differentiating themselves from Mr. Trump.‘</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Caught between wanting</strong> to criticize the president for what many will believe is a dangerously hawkish and simplistic approach to China on the one hand and wanting to appear tough on national security on the other, they’ll likely come off sounding soft or naive.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7zWQQi?track_p_id=7StmMA3k94sC0k_Cozpb3Bk" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7zWQQi?track_p_id=aBrlefXmRCt94sC0k_4bpI3" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">From the Left | 'Trump Is Playing the China Card. Who Believes Him?'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7zWQQi?track_p_id=7mVVHaVG94sC0k_hjzyix3N" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/w5kABmgmQVKzbPt_dvNU4Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7zWQQi?track_p_id=bIuGEpg5UAC594sC0k_QWMt" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">From the Left | Trump Is Playing the China Card. Who Believes Him?&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Susan Rice</strong> | former Obama National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This election year, China-bashing will reach a new level.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a long history</strong> of American presidential candidates using China as a campaign cudgel —'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘from Bill Clinton</strong> blasting President George H.W. Bush in 1992 for dealing with a Chinese premier known as the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/world/li-peng-retires-but-his-infamy-for-tiananmen-massacre-endures.html" rel="nofollow">“Butcher of Beijing”</a>to Donald Trump’s 2016 attack that the Obama administration had allowed China&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2016/05/01/politics/donald-trump-china-rape/index.html" rel="nofollow">to “rape”</a>&nbsp;the United States while Hillary Clinton was secretary of state.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This election year,</strong> China-bashing will reach a new level, as Mr. Trump seeks to capitalize on high voter disapproval of China, Beijing’s failure to contain the coronavirus and persistent bilateral tensions between our countries.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Desperate to obscure the reality</strong> of more than 90,000 American deaths and 36 million unemployed amid Mr. Trump’s utterly incompetent handling of the pandemic, Republicans have no better strategy than to play the China card.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Republicans</strong> are executing a 57-page&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244" rel="nofollow">campaign memo</a>that recommends branding opponents “soft on China” and reveals their rationale for repeated refrains of the “Chinese virus” and “Wuhan lab.” ’ [more on that below]</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Mr. Trump,</strong> attacking former Vice President Joe Biden on China serves three purposes:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘to dampen turnout</strong> among populist Democrats;’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘to deflect blame</strong> for his deadly mishandling of the coronavirus for which he takes no&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/politics/fact-check-trump-coronavirus.html" rel="nofollow">“responsibility at all”</a>; and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘most cynically,</strong> to try to turn his own blatant weakness on China into a political weapon.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lacking any sense of irony or decency,</strong> Mr. Trump will run his standard play — trying to deflect responsibility for his monumental failings by dishonestly projecting onto Mr. Biden his own weakness on China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Trump</strong> seemingly will do anything to win in November, and his China gambit may prove to be the least of it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">3. The View from European Companies in China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/interview-joerg-wuttke-part-one-malcolm-riddell-%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E5%25AE%259D/?trackingId=9YIVUcVcA5j3SDEuaWiRjw%3D%3D" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/interview-joerg-wuttke-part-one-malcolm-riddell-%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E5%25AE%259D/?trackingId=9YIVUcVcA5j3SDEuaWiRjw%3D%3D" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part One | The Interview with Joerg Wuttke&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/WPxiL1v2xGIleoZjPOkDGzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/interview-joerg-wuttke-part-one-malcolm-riddell-%25E5%25A4%25A7%25E5%25AE%259D/?trackingId=9YIVUcVcA5j3SDEuaWiRjw%3D%3D" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part One | The Interview with Joerg Wuttke</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The propaganda ministry - within four to six weeks - managed to turn China into a problem for Europeans. China’s standing in Europe is eroding by the day.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘How are</strong> European businesses faring in China?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘European companies</strong> in China were doing well until January this year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Business was good</strong> for those that are permitted to operate here.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But you have to keep in mind</strong> that there are lots of companies in Europe that have their nose against the China window and want to come in, but cannot. ‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We estimate</strong> that we lose about 30 billion Euros every year because of companies not being able to operate in China the way Chinese companies are able operate in the European Union.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘How do you see </strong>the relations between China and Europe businesses in China?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Well it's a very mixed picture.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We had, over the last year,</strong> a relatively smooth ride compared to the U.S.-China relationship.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But at the same time,</strong> the U.S.-China trade battle sucked the oxygen out of our room for a long time.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the later part of 2019,</strong> we wanted to have high level meetings, we wanted to engage.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China simply</strong> wasn't able to focus. They were totally absorbed by the trouble Trump was causing them. So we had a real attention problem.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is funny</strong> because Europe happens to be the largest market for China - way bigger than the U.S. market - and we are by far China’s biggest technology provider.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After 15th of January</strong> when the Phase One trade deal was signed in D.C., we got a bit of attention from the Chinese - then coronavirus happened.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Europe is not</strong> the kind of world power the U.S. is.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For us,</strong> China is in an economic story.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.-China relations</strong> has the security story on top of the economic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Relations between Europe and China </strong>seem strained lately. What’s behind that?'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Europe</strong> has always been sympathetic to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Europeans felt</strong> a lot of goodwill towards China, in January in particular, when China was struggling - Europeans were moved by the pictures of Wuhanese standing on balconies singing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That goodwill turned around</strong> immediately when China was starting to donate equipment into Europe, particularly Italy, in the latter part of February and made a big fuss about it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What really annoyed us</strong> was when European people, as well as companies, donated money and equipment in January, the Chinese government asked us to lie low and not talk about it. So we didn't.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then all of a sudden</strong> we see China celebrating any mask that they landed in Europe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And of course on top of it,</strong> we are now experiencing the rhetoric, the assertiveness, the bullying of the ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomats you have written about.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We now enjoy</strong> Wolf Warriors in our capitals - in Stockholm and Paris and Prague and other places.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a very sad story</strong> to see how the propaganda ministry - within four to six weeks - managed to turn China into a problem for Europeans, and how China’s standing in Europe is eroding by the day.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Is Europe feeling pressure</strong> from the U.S. and China to pick a side?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Yes, the Chinese and the U.S.</strong> are putting pressure on us to make up our minds, "So who are you with? With us or with them?" ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this binary system,</strong> that's certainly not very positive to make a choice.'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Besides,</strong> actually we don't want to make a choice.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are - if you include Britain - the largest economic block.</strong> We have a world currency. We don't have the army, and we look very messy, but as a matter of fact, we are an economic powerhouse.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So we don't want</strong> to make a choice.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We lean towards the U.S. of course</strong> for the system that we have, the democratic values that we have.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And we certainly</strong> want to lean on China too because that means 30% of economic growth over the next 10 years coming out of China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So there’s a lot of soul searching</strong> have right now in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris, and other capitals.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:0px solid #f5f5f5;">4. The Upcoming National People's Congress</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/59eFzU?track_p_id=4yhMJ89SXuA_urtfxU5SsxB" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/59eFzU?track_p_id=8XUXv3hWq89SXuA_qodxFtX" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Three Things to Watch at China's Upcoming NPC</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/59eFzU?track_p_id=efsKRSi1ExXM6qK89SXuA_a" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/NKCZWkK_WbdNE1f8kUMiY0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/59eFzU?track_p_id=5Sqt1c89SXuA_rVTNrZ5%40AB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Three Things to Watch at China's Upcoming NPC'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Houze Song</strong> | MacroPolo</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Job relief, rather than stimulus, will likely be the key theme coming out of the NPC.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s annual two sessions, </strong>the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, will start on May 22.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ahead of this NPC session,</strong> however, three issues are worth noting: unemployment target, budget allocation, and longer term initiatives.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘From Growth Target to Unemployment Target’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economic growth target</strong> has commanded the most attention in previous years, but Beijing will likely emphasize the unemployment target this year, as it was added as a key target only in 2018 - a significant change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I expect Beijing to officially stick</strong> to the same 5.5% unemployment target as in 2019.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even if an annual GDP target</strong> is announced—perhaps in the 2-3% range—the unemployment target will be the more politically binding one.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This signals to local officials</strong> that the focus will be on maintaining jobs and sustaining livelihoods rather than pouring capital toward shovel-ready projects.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Budget Allocation’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The fiscal deficit</strong> this year will certainly be larger than usual.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the central budget’s allocation</strong> will determine the trade-off between growth and jobs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although the two</strong> are generally strongly correlated, certain fiscal stimulus can lead to jobless growth because the money will mainly be spent on physical assets, not paychecks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> even in public works projects specifically designed to create jobs, only 15% of the expenditure goes to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/2020-03/26/c_1125773564.htm" rel="nofollow">labor compensation</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given the immense scale of </strong>the unemployment challenge, the budget allocation will favor job relief spending in order to meet the unemployment target.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The spending on jobs programs </strong>and other livelihood protections, in accordance with the “<a href="http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2020-05/15/content_5511961.htm" rel="nofollow">six ensures</a>,” will mean less of a fiscal boost for investment and will come at the expense of near-term growth.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘Major Initiatives’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The NPC will also preview</strong> Beijing’s longer-term planning, which will likely be featured in the 14th Five-Year Plan due later this year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> Beijing will likely unveil more details on its new digital infrastructure plan, such as the scope and scale of investment.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> given the intensification of US-China technology confrontation, indigenous innovation and supply chain integrity will also be near the top of the NPC agenda.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In sum,</strong> job relief, rather than stimulus, will likely be the key theme coming out of the NPC, while Beijing’s longer-term plans are expected to further crystallize.’<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">5. China's Challenge to the Dollar</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/m4QtWRBnTJMKIQQ5rc1wXTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5fZIye?track_p_id=9XIOkjpdZd94ztNe_tZrpLg" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5fZIye?track_p_id=8pYfhLn4I94ztNe_6OHjmNn" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 1 | China's Challenge to the Dollar</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5fZIye?track_p_id=aD15HXNccxs94ztNe_pAXjG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/9w-KQLdOzBGVLcov1q2XbUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5fZIye?track_p_id=094ztNe_HrrFZU%40h%40HealOJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China's Challenge to the Dollar</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hank Paulson | </strong>Chair, Paulson Institute &amp; former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing still has major hurdles to overcome before the RMB can truly emerge as a primary global reserve currency.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese renminbi (RMB)</strong> has by far the greatest potential to assume a role rivaling that of the dollar.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s economic size,</strong> prospects for future growth, integration into the global economy, and accelerated efforts to internationalize the RMB all favor an expanded role for the Chinese currency.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But by themselves,</strong> these conditions are insufficient.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing still has major hurdles</strong> to overcome before the RMB can truly emerge as a primary global reserve currency.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Among other transformative measures,</strong> it needs to make more progress in moving to a market-driven economy, improve corporate governance, and develop efficient, well-regulated financial markets that earn the respect of international investors so that Beijing can eliminate capital controls and turn the RMB into a market-determined currency.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent Chinese ambitions</strong> that required similar transformations—such as establishing Shanghai as a full-fledged global financial hub by 2020—have so far been deferred:&nbsp;a financial hub simply is not viable when capital controls are in place and the currency is not market determined.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The same holds true</strong> for the RMB’s prospects as a major reserve currency.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And China’s much-touted successes</strong> in the realm of fintech—including its rapid deployment of mobile payment systems and the recent pilot project by the People’s Bank of China to test a digital RMB—will not change that.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As discussed below.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hR3FA?track_p_id=6lXvPM4751aJy_BEEVXg3oY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hR3FA?track_p_id=1l751aJy_eeixXntZuFtVmU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 2 | Fintech as a Path to RMB Dominance</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hR3FA?track_p_id=0751aJy_C3fPnpbhMLFQld2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hR3FA?track_p_id=5U1V1W751aJy_35wiXn3PRu" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Fintech as a Path to RMB Dominance</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hank Paulson | </strong>Chair, Paulson Institute &amp; former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'Pundits&nbsp;opine that Chinese fintech dominance could soon jeopardize the dollar’s global status.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I think Mr. Paulson </strong>underestimates the impact of China’s digital payment system.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To learn more,</strong> see <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/chinas-digital-payments-revolution/" rel="nofollow">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s digital payments revolution’</strong></a> by Brookings’ <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/experts/aaron-klein/" rel="nofollow">Aaron Klein</a>.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;_______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many who return from China</strong> breathlessly remark on how cashless the country has become.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This fact regularly lead pundits</strong> to opine that Chinese fintech dominance could soon jeopardize the dollar’s global status.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is not a serious concern</strong>—nor is it clear that the United States is actually falling behind in matters of fintech.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China was not a pioneer of fintech</strong> but rather a rapid adopter and scaler of the technology.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent</strong> have led the way in creating services that make digital transactions much more efficient, while tapping into a large market of unbanked customers, particularly in rural China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The uptake of their services</strong> has been phenomenal. In 2018, for example, the volume of mobile payment transactions in China&nbsp;<a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-03-22/chart-of-the-day-chinas-mobile-payment-transaction-volume-hits-4151-trillion-in-2018-101395789.html" rel="nofollow">totaled $41.5 trillion.</a>’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This success was possible</strong> largely because China’s existing financial infrastructure was antiquated and its state banking system inefficient.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Just as important,</strong> credit cards never took hold in China, so when smartphones became cheap and widespread, it made perfect sense to leapfrog from a cash-based economy directly to mobile banking.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'What’s more, for all of how “cashless” China</strong> has become, many Americans, too, would be hard-pressed to recall the last time they used cash for anything other than a minor transaction.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They can move money</strong> from one bank account to another instantaneously and seamlessly.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mobile payment services</strong> such as Venmo and Apple Pay work just as well as Alipay and WeChat.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But by and large Americans</strong> still prefer credit cards, because using them is as convenient as using a phone and the existing financial infrastructure is safe, robust, and trustworthy.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MIQBE?track_p_id=c%40zGdQVtbLRKX8FgtcU_PJP" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MIQBE?track_p_id=7JCNrCsa8FgtcU_dGl4b6fh" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 3 | Digital RMB as Path to RMB Dominance</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MIQBE?track_p_id=dYXOfHrDgJAydQ8FgtcU_Ur" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9MIQBE?track_p_id=6kvG23i8FgtcU_yVJXFWsip" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Part 3 | Digital RMB as Path to RMB Dominance</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hank Paulson | </strong>Chair, Paulson Institute &amp; former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A digital RMB would still be a Chinese RMB. No one is reinventing money.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although the Chinese central bank</strong> could launch a digital currency as early as this year, the headlines exaggerate how transformational it will actually be.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those who worry</strong> that this development might herald the end of U.S. dollar primacy misunderstand that while the form of money may be changing, its nature has not.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A digital RMB</strong> would still be a Chinese RMB. No one is reinventing money.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The token used for transactions</strong> may be different, but China’s prospects for reserve currency status depend on the same set of factors that apply to the issuer of that currency.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And although the Chinese government</strong> has promoted use of the RMB to settle trade transactions as part of an effort to internationalize its currency, oil and other major commodities are still priced in U.S. dollars.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although a Beijing-backed digital currency</strong> in and of itself is unlikely to undermine the dollar’s supremacy, it could certainly facilitate China’s efforts to internationalize the RMB.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In countries with unstable currencies,</strong> such as Venezuela, a digital RMB is an attractive alternative to the local currency.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese firms such as Tencent,</strong> which already have a sizable presence in developing countries in Africa and Latin America, could scale up their presence there, leading a future digital RMB to gain market share.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This could help enhance</strong> the RMB’s global status and become part of a broader strategy to project Chinese economic and political influence abroad.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:40px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f5f5f5;">6. The Republican's China-Bashing Playbook</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:0px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/NEYi-zBKDQPDvlrnlmaU1Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-style:italic;">from the 'Corona Big Book'</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/53ggG8?track_p_id=3Uuz8HPJXy_L62vxveejmhR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/g7eZWT131wC1t8Pc8vSTrki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/53ggG8?track_p_id=cGQ3vQc%40gPnKa8HPJXy_AHa" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Get ready for a campaign season full of China-Covid conspiracy theories'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/53ggG8?track_p_id=7aq5K66T8HPJXy_ukXqaVtD" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/wczytRsRRul6HahG4gs3-ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/53ggG8?track_p_id=dkqqNebh5JS4h18HPJXy_gg" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Get ready for a campaign season full of China-Covid conspiracy theories</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CNN</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stephen S. Roach</strong> | Yale University &amp; former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Note - don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban -- attack China’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also see </strong><a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-charges-against-china-covid19-alternative-facts-by-stephen-s-roach-and-weijian-shan-2020-05" rel="nofollow">‘The Fable of the Chinese Whistleblower’</a> by Stephen S. Roach &amp; Weijian Shan.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Attacking China</strong> has now become the centerpiece for the upcoming 2020 election campaign by an increasingly desperate Republican Party and its vulnerable leadership.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A leaked 57-page "</strong><a href="https://static.politico.com/80/54/2f3219384e01833b0a0ddf95181c/corona-virus-big-book-4.17.20.pdf" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Corona Big Book</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">"</strong> -- reportedly disseminated by the GOP's Senate-campaign arm, produced by a consulting firm, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244" rel="nofollow">obtained by Politico</a> -- urges GOP candidates to bash China between now and November.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It rests</strong> on three premises, that:’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the novel coronavirus</strong> came from a lab in Wuhan,'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'the Chinese government</strong> covered up the outbreak and'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the Trump administration </strong>would have acted forcefully had it only known the real "truth." ’</li></ol><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first claim is dubious;</strong> the next, ambiguous; and the third one, not credible.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the end,</strong> the GOP's so-called "Corona Big Book" throws down the gauntlet in its campaign marching orders: "... don't defend Trump ... attack China." ’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:solid 1px #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3% 3%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/52TsxM?track_p_id=aKlUNG2sLUt8US2Nq_vwgIU" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/RsgU3XZRKj48JSs7AcDug0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/52TsxM?track_p_id=3WcT8US2Nq_IXenYGxLeCiL" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.7; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Corona Big Book'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; padding-bottom:20px;"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/r90IxU1pw4Bymq56bg9CdDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:0"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:none;"><a href="http://sco.lt/52TsxM?track_p_id=5gsKrD8US2Nq_y3vdrvhT3A" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/EtOBTa_Aag89REmO0L-qTki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="display:none; padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/52TsxM?track_p_id=9l2wdxx1hj8US2Nq_fetugY" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Corona Big Book'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Daily Mail &amp; ‘Corona Big Book’</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f5f5f5;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘My opponent is soft on China, fails to stand up to the Chinese Communist Party, and can’t be trusted to take them on.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong> the <a href="https://static.politico.com/80/54/2f3219384e01833b0a0ddf95181c/corona-virus-big-book-4.17.20.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">‘Corona Big Book’</a></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lots of footnotes,</strong> so the text is short - and the scripts, well, enlightening.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Must read prep </strong>for the campaigns to come.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;_______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8255351/Republican-senators-told-NOT-defend-Donald-Trumps-coronavirus-record.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Daily Mail.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Republican senators and candidates for Senate seats</strong> are being warned not to defend the president's performance on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/coronavirus/index.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">coronavirus</strong></a>&nbsp;and that they should attack&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/china/index.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong></a>&nbsp;instead, a leaked internal document revealed Friday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The 57-page 'Corona Big Book'</strong> is one of a series issued from the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee to cover major topics candidates could face in debates or when they are questioned by voters or reporters.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The document,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">obtained by Politico,</strong></a>&nbsp;is sent to more than 100 individual campaigns - those of the 53 Republican senators - who form a majority in the chamber - then the campaigns for the other 47 seats, some of which are still in the primary stage.’</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;_______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://static.politico.com/80/54/2f3219384e01833b0a0ddf95181c/corona-virus-big-book-4.17.20.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Corona Big Book.’</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>Here’s an excerpt:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Summary of message’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘1. SHORT VERSION’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China caused this pandemic</strong> by covering it up, lying, and hoarding the world’s supply of medical equipment.’<ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is an adversary</strong> that has stolen millions of American jobs, sent fentanyl to the United States, and they send religious minorities to concentration camps.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘My opponent is soft on China,</strong> fails to stand up to the Chinese Communist Party, and can’t be trusted to take them on.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I will stand up to China,</strong> bring our manufacturing jobs back home, and push for sanctions on China for its role in spreading this pandemic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 16, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9E2BGK?track_p_id=4SwSm6afNkM_gtHMuvpheT2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9E2BGK?track_p_id=dhKOb3j2GwX5MG6afNkM_vB" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Has the U.S. Forgotten How to Build?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong>&nbsp;</h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s</strong> issue:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Trump is Right.’</strong></span> The President’s Fox interview on Thursday is ‘Trump Condensed.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“These stupid supply chains</strong> that are all over the world — we have a supply chain where they’re made in all different parts of the world.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And one little piece</strong> of the world goes bad, and the whole thing is messed up.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We should have them all</strong> in the United States.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"There are many things</strong> we could do with China. We could do things.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We could cut off the whole relationship.</strong> Now, if you did, what would happen?"</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“You'd save $500 billion </strong>[in China exports to the U.S], if you cut off the whole relationship.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Post-Pandemic: No Pax Sinica, No Pax Americana.’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>&nbsp;‘The uncomfortable truth is that China and the United States are both likely to emerge from this crisis significantly diminished.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Neither a new Pax Sinica </strong>nor a renewed Pax Americana will rise from the ruins.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather, both powers</strong> will be weakened, at home and abroad.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the result</strong> will be a continued slow but steady drift toward international anarchy across everything from international security to trade to pandemic management.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With nobody directing traffic,</strong> various forms of rampant nationalism are taking the place of order and cooperation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The chaotic nature</strong> of national and global responses to the pandemic thus stands as a warning of what could come on an even broader scale.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘Huawei: Not as Tough as It Looks.’</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>Just as with the Soviet Union and Japan, we have’10-footed Huawei. In fact, Huawei is not as tough as it looks. (And we’re going to win the 5G race.) &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Why the U.S. Can’t Build.’</strong></span> Why the U.S. has to build; why it can’t build; why the U.S. should follow the Chinese manufacturing model; and why that model isn’t as spiffy as it looks. More below. &nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘Pandemic Accelerating 5 Trends in China’s Economy.’</strong></span> McKinsey says:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘COVID-19 has accelerated pre-existing trends,</strong> ushering in the arrival of a future we were likely already on track to realize.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Most interesting trend is #3: ‘</strong>In China, the top 10% of companies capture about 90 percent of total profit in the economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Strong performers</strong> in the top decile tend to have robust digital capabilities, as well as agility, and high labor productivity.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However, top performers</strong> in China cannot be complacent as leadership is highly contested.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Only 36 percent of the firms</strong> in the top quintile in China were able to protect their position over a period of 10 years, compared with 53 percent in North America.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘COVID-19 will raise competitive intensity,</strong> creating even bigger rewards, and risks, for market-leading companies.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My Take on ‘Why the U.S. Can’t Build.’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When U.S. companies</strong> began offshoring in earnest, I had two reactions:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Globalization </strong>of manufacturing: good.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">America not building stuff,</strong> important stuff: bad.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This marked me</strong> as a true post-WWII child.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With the globalization of manufacturing,</strong> I believed, trade would flourish, poor nations could begin to prosper, and the U.S., as the number one economy and holder of the world’s reserve currency, would strengthen its position and leadership.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not building important stuff, </strong>I also believed, ignored the lessons of WWII – where, for example, automobile companies retooled in short order to make tanks – that when it counts, America has to be able to supply key products.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The pandemic exposed problems</strong> like the supply chain for U.S. medicines running through China and American factories not able to turn on a dime and make even the simplest ‘personal protective equipment’ in massive amounts.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I, like so many others,</strong> have begun to question why things went so wrong - and the answers are now coming out.&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Silicon Valley legend, Marc Andreessen </strong>of Andreessen Horowitz&nbsp;says the problems are desire, inertia, regulatory capture, and will.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dan Wang</strong> (who also cites Andreessen’s essay) blames the loss of 'process knowledge in the U.S.:&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a typical production process,</strong> there are a million-and-one things that can’t be written down.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Process knowledge is</strong>&nbsp;thus represented by an experienced workforce, which circulates best practices and figures out new ways of doing things.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These workers manifest in industrial clusters,</strong> or what economist Brad DeLong calls “communities of engineering practice.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of these is Andreessen’s Silicon Valley,</strong> where the success of the semiconductor industry spawned further triumphs in telecommunications, software and the consumer internet.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An earlier example was Detroit,</strong> where a clustering of railroad engineers and machine-tool experts in the early 20th century established the conditions for assembly-line production of the automobile.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While Silicon Valley’s star</strong> still shines, Detroit’s has long faded.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The production networks</strong> that once sustained so much process knowledge have disappeared along with the car factories.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By contrast in China,</strong> a vast pool of experienced engineers and a culture of nimble manufacturing have allowed companies to quickly shift production to critically needed goods during this crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Manufacturers</strong> such as BYD Co.(an automaker) and Foxconn (an electronics assembler) have&nbsp;helped&nbsp;to quadruple China’s mask production since the beginning of the pandemic.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I had just about bought </strong>into Dan's exhortation: ‘The U.S. should learn from China’s playbook,' then I read this about Dan's example of ‘nimble manufacturing’<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>and ‘quickly shifting production,’ BYD.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. authorities this month</strong> denied initial regulatory approval for N95 masks from&nbsp;BYD], a Chinese company that had secured huge orders for the protective gear including a $1 billion deal with the state of California.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health</strong> said in a statement Wednesday that it told BYD on May 4 that an on-site assessment of its factories in China yielded a “not acceptable” rating.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I began to wonder:</strong> Does anyone anywhere know how to build anymore?</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">1. 'Trump Condensed'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/f4HD-79_fcTo4g8fNypUwjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/95ADRo?track_p_id=9uWaSce3yb7Wzwyc_UIzlZ2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oSDqRY1EPdaZXuA1wzBoxki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/95ADRo?track_p_id=2aR7Wzwyc_LrGgbc6r3iZ3j" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"Trump was right."</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fox Business News</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“A lot of people are saying, ‘Trump was right.’ ”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here are some highlights from President Trump’s </strong>Thursday <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-7N8HAKWmc" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">interview</a> on Fox Business News.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">These few highlights </strong>can't begin to capture the full impact or the President's tone.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The whole interview</strong> is 'Trump Condensed' and well worth watching - agree with him or not.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Have to say, </strong>after all these years,<strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>the President can still startle me.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">__________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b">&nbsp;</span><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Supply Chains &amp; Reshoring</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Look, there’s nothing good</strong> about what happened with the plague, OK? Especially the death.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But the one thing is,</strong> it said, ‘Trump was right.’ ”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“These stupid supply chains</strong> that are all over the world — we have a supply chain where they’re made in all different parts of the world.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And one little piece</strong> of the world goes bad, and the whole thing is messed up.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We should have them all</strong> in the United States.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We have the companies</strong> to do it. And if we don’t, we can do that.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It’s all going to be back together,</strong> and in many ways, we’ve learned a lot.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And we’re going to bring back manufacturing</strong> that we could never have done without this [pandemic], as bad as this has been, because now people agree with me.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“A lot of people are saying,</strong> ‘Trump was right.’ ”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Decoupling with China</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"There are many things</strong> we could do. We could do things.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We could cut off the whole relationship.</strong> Now, if you did, what would happen?"</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“You'd save $500 billion </strong>[in China exports to the U.S], if you cut off the whole relationship.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">2. Post-Pandemic: No Pax Sinica, No Pax Americana</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/ER7bsJzXo-cXNdWRbA0hEjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4s5eYy?track_p_id=06lS8go_H6u3vohfWwqM6sk" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4s5eYy?track_p_id=1I6lS8go_ZGwbJkyyks33dq" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Coming Post-COVID Anarchy: The Pandemic Bodes Ill for Both American and Chinese Power</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kevin Rudd</strong> | former Australian Prime Minister, now president of the Asia Society Policy Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Neither a new Pax Sinica nor a renewed Pax Americana will rise from the ruins.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kevin Rudd</strong> has done a good job of laying out the situation we face in a post-pandemic world.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">His focus</strong> is on the U.S. and China.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I’ve highlighted </strong>just his views on China; the ones on the U.S. are equally bleak.&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">____________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The uncomfortable truth</strong> is that China and the United States are both likely to emerge from this crisis significantly diminished.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Neither a new Pax Sinica </strong>nor a renewed Pax Americana will rise from the ruins.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather, both powers</strong> will be weakened, at home and abroad.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the result</strong> will be a continued slow but steady drift toward international anarchy across everything from international security to trade to pandemic management.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With nobody directing traffic,</strong> various forms of rampant nationalism are taking the place of order and cooperation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The chaotic nature</strong> of national and global responses to the pandemic thus stands as a warning of what could come on an even broader scale.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Contrary to the common trope,</strong> China’s national power has taken a hit from this crisis on multiple levels.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The outbreak</strong> has opened up significant political dissension within the Chinese Communist Party, even prompting thinly veiled criticism of President Xi Jinping’s highly centralized leadership style.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The economic damage</strong> has been massive.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Overall, 2020 growth</strong> is likely to be around zero—the worst performance since the Cultural Revolution five decades ago.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is now working overtime</strong> to repair the enormous damage to its global standing that resulted from the geographical origin of the virus and Beijing’s failure to contain the epidemic in the critical early months.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whatever China’s new generation of “wolf-warrior” diplomats</strong> may report back to Beijing, the reality is that China’s standing has taken a huge hit (the irony is that these wolf-warriors are adding to this damage, not ameliorating it).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese soft power</strong> runs the risk of being shredded.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The crisis </strong>also appears to have shredded much of what was left of the U.S.-Chinese relationship.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Washington,</strong> any return to a pre-2017 world of “strategic engagement” with Beijing is no longer politically tenable.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Beijing,</strong> China’s response to the United States’ ever-hardening posture is now under intense review.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The review</strong> is part of a broader internal debate in Beijing about whether China’s national strategy, at this stage of its economic and military development, has in recent years become insufficiently reformist at home and excessively assertive abroad.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi could seek to ameliorate tensions</strong> with the United States until the pandemic is lost to political memory; or facing internal challenges, he could take a more nationalist approach abroad.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Both of these tendencies</strong> will likely appear in Chinese policy behavior until China’s internal policy review process concludes, which may not happen until shortly before the 20th Communist Party Congress in 2022.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">3. Huawei: Not as Tough as It Looks</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5JfUfY?track_p_id=61b5XO46LTbN0_czRaJPJB3" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5JfUfY?track_p_id=8DTtWLlAt6LTbN0_vYMWmLk" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"We have ‘10-footed’ Huawei."</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">David Ignatius</strong> | Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“As in the past — with the supposed ‘missile gap’ between us and the Soviets in the 1950s and the supposedly unstoppable Japanese economy in the ’80s — we have ‘10-footed’ Huawei. The company is not the nimble dynamo depicted in the media.”</strong><a href="https://theasiagroup.com/staff/kurt-m-campbell/" rel="nofollow">Kurt Campbell</a></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the pandemic </strong>has eventually subsided, the global economic battle between the United States and China will continue.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the center of this contest will be Huawei, </strong>the telecommunications company that is China’s technology champion.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has been waging a multi-front war on Huawei. This anti-Huawei campaign overlooks two hidden factors that may be more successful than trying to strong-arm allies:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, Huawei is an inefficient</strong> and sometimes sloppy software producer. British intelligence, which has studied Huawei systems for a decade, has found them&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/britains-spy-agency-delivers-a-scathing-assessment-of-the-security-risks-posed-by-huawei-to-the-countrys-telecom-networks/2019/03/27/ab16d7d2-50fd-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_7&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_7" rel="nofollow">riddled&nbsp;</a>with dangerous glitches.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, Huawei’s approach to 5G technology</strong> may soon be replaced by a much&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pushing-effort-to-develop-5g-alternative-to-huawei-11580831592" rel="nofollow">better architecture pioneered</a> by U.S. and Japanese companies.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Huawei poses a threat</strong> not because it has great products, but because it has so little competition.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its 5G telecom products </strong>are cheap, low-profit items; U.S. companies have mostly stayed away, and European rivals such as Nokia and Ericsson have been sluggish.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Huawei,</strong> with, one expert estimates, 80&nbsp;percent of the Chinese market and approaching 45&nbsp;percent of the world market, keeps increasing its share.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But every technology</strong> gets disrupted eventually, and experts say that’s going to happen to 5G.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A new approach known as&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.o-ran.org/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">O-RAN</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>(which stands for Open Radio Access Networks) will someday replace Huawei’s hardware with software-driven networks that will be faster, safer and more secure.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Backing this approach</strong> is an alliance of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.o-ran.org/membership" rel="nofollow">23 major telecom companies</a>, including AT&amp;T and Verizon.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Building a pathway for this new technology</strong> — and&nbsp;giving companies alternatives to signing long-term contracts with a fading Huawei technology — should be the real focus of U.S. policy.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">4. Why the U.S. Can't Build</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">We Need to Build...</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/4TrM3F8qrP8u6109U_ZdqDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/QWcPdi3DRouphFWwLlcLyjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7sViEq?track_p_id=byieaJU%40p5Zi63AiOk_mHWq" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/8wKljCgJuGVn-EXAY-Zc0Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7sViEq?track_p_id=1363AiOk_Kq1CV%40zPactuyr" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'IT'S TIME TO BUILD'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Andreessen Horowitz</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://a16z.com/author/marc-andreessen/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Marc Andreessen</strong></a> | Andreessen Horowitz</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our nation and our civilization were built on production, on building.’</strong>&nbsp;</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Every Western institution</strong> was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic, despite many prior warnings.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This monumental failure</strong> of institutional effectiveness will reverberate for the rest of the decade, but it’s not too early to ask why, and what we need to do about it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Part of the problem</strong> is clearly foresight, a failure of imagination.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the other part of the problem</strong> is what we didn’t *do* in advance, and what we’re failing to do now.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that is a failure of action,</strong> and specifically our widespread inability to *build*.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We see this today</strong> with the things we urgently need but don’t have.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why do we not</strong> have these things?’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Medical equipment </strong>and financial conduits involve no rocket science whatsoever. At least therapies and vaccines are hard! Making masks and transferring money are not hard.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We could have these things</strong> but we chose not to — specifically we chose not to have the mechanisms, the factories, the systems to make these things.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'We chose</strong> not to *build*.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Building isn’t easy, or we’d already be doing all this.’&nbsp;</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem is desire.</strong> We need to *want* these things.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem is inertia.</strong> We need to want these things more than we want to prevent these things.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The problem is regulatory capture.</strong> We need to want new companies to build these things, even if incumbents don’t like it, even if only to force the incumbents to build these things.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the problem is will.</strong> We need to build these things.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The things we build in huge quantities,</strong> like computers and TVs, drop rapidly in price.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The things we don’t,</strong> like housing, schools, and hospitals, skyrocket in price.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our nation and our civilization</strong> were built on production, on building.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our forefathers and foremothers</strong> built roads and trains, farms and factories, then the computer, the microchip, the smartphone, and uncounted thousands of other things that we now take for granted, that are all around us, that define our lives and provide for our well-being.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is only one way to honor</strong> their legacy and to create the future we want for our own children and grandchildren, and that’s to build.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">...But We Have Forgotten How to Build</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Rpo2gH2xYiHKjLWgA1rCNjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/51VALQ?track_p_id=cFuhnVy3gmpqn93LPSw_KZm" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/51VALQ?track_p_id=7pjPGj1193LPSw_Iju3vvDf" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why American Manufacturing Can't Handle the Coronavirus&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dan Wang</strong> | Gavekal Dragonomics</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Among the many uncomfortable truths revealed by the coronavirus pandemic is, apparently, this: America can’t build anymore.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Among the many uncomfortable truths </strong>revealed by the coronavirus pandemic is, apparently, this: America can’t build anymore.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Faced with an unprecedented emergency, </strong>U.S. factories have struggled to make even relatively simple products such as swabs, masks and protective gear.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a widely circulated recent&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">essay</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong>&nbsp;Silicon Valley luminary Marc Andreessen blamed America’s inability to build on inertia and a failure of will.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There’s more</strong> to it than that.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Technology</strong> is essentially three things:’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘tools</strong> (such pots, pans and stoves);’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘explicit instructions</strong> (such as patents and recipes); and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘process knowledge,</strong> which can also be described as tacit knowledge or technical experience.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first two are easy</strong> to observe and measure; the third is most important.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a typical production process,</strong> there are a million-and-one things that can’t be written down.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://danwang.co/how-technology-grows/" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Process </strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">knowledge is</strong>&nbsp;thus represented by an experienced workforce, which circulates best practices and figures out new ways of doing things.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These workers manifest in industrial clusters,</strong> or what economist Brad DeLong calls “communities of engineering practice.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of these is Andreessen’s Silicon Valley,</strong> where the success of the semiconductor industry spawned further triumphs in telecommunications, software and the consumer internet.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An earlier example was Detroit,</strong> where a clustering of railroad engineers and machine-tool experts in the early 20th century established the conditions for assembly-line production of the automobile.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While Silicon Valley’s star</strong> still shines, Detroit’s has long faded.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The production networks</strong> that once sustained so much process knowledge have disappeared along with the car factories.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By contrast in China,</strong> a vast pool of experienced engineers and a culture of nimble manufacturing have allowed companies to quickly shift production to critically needed goods during this crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Manufacturers</strong> such as BYD Co. (an automaker) and Foxconn (an electronics assembler) have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3075289/china-boosts-face-mask-production-capacity-450-cent-month" rel="nofollow">helped&nbsp;</a>to quadruple China’s mask production since the beginning of the pandemic.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwanese companies,</strong> which make machine tools and can draw on deep pools of manufacturing expertise, were reportedly able&nbsp;to increase mask production tenfold.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. should learn</strong> from China’s playbook.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A vigorous political push</strong> — accompanied by an even minimal imitation of China’s program of state-guided procurement, localization requirements and cultivation of a deep labor pool — could help rebuild the American industrial base.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Follow Up</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nesjY?track_p_id=d62PDgKbehhIGx4gusIw_hd" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nesjY?track_p_id=85vlIEwcr4gusIw_yVroIip" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Regulators Deny Approval of BYD Masks in Giant California Order</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. authorities this month denied initial regulatory approval for N95 masks from&nbsp;BYD&nbsp;Co.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. authorities this month</strong> denied initial regulatory approval for N95 masks from&nbsp;<a href="https://quotes.wsj.com/HK/XHKG/1211" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">BYD</a>&nbsp;Co., a Chinese company that had secured huge orders for the protective gear including a $1 billion deal with the state of California.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘BYD, an electric-vehicle company</strong> that includes Warren Buffett as an investor, has been racing to transform itself into one of the world’s leading mask makers in light of the demand.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The company,</strong> which has won giant contracts for its N95 masks from customers in the U.S., Canada and Asia, already is supplying other types of masks for use in the U.S.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health</strong> said in a statement Wednesday that it told BYD on May 4 that an on-site assessment of its factories in China yielded a “not acceptable” rating.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The agency said the specifics</strong> of the application denial for BYD’s N95 masks were confidential, but noted that its “review of the documentation provided to Niosh for the design, manufacturing and quality inspection of the device was concerning.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">5. Pandemic Accelerating 5 Trends in China's Economy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/J-UqHGtvZ2mWGwjR6bUpQjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/GYVt5vxhDM_YQD5YgmrxrTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4kUspk?track_p_id=5J2Wj566zBOQ_CbUqI6gy%403" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/hqcb7kJYiDYn7Mrr5RTueEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4kUspk?track_p_id=ac3WSKd223J66zBOQ_zvuo1" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How COVID-19 is accelerating five key trends shaping the Chinese economy </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">McKinsey &amp; Company</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The forces that were already driving a restructuring of the relationship between China and the global economy may with COVID-19 be accelerating this trend on a global scale.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As that recovery takes shape,</strong> several important shifts in the make-up of China’s economic landscape have already become apparent. COVID-19 has accelerated pre-existing trends, ushering in the arrival of a future we were likely already on track to realize.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Digitization’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even before the onset of COVID-19,</strong> China was a global frontrunner in terms of the digital economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now with COVID-19,</strong> digitization is not only accelerating in the typical business-to-consumer (B2C) applications and channels, but is also gaining traction in the traditionally less digitized part of the economy, such as areas requiring heavy physical interactions and business-to-business (B2B) processes.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Declining global exposure’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the last decade,</strong> the engine of the Chinese economy has become more domestically driven by the rapid expansion of its consumer market, deep localization of supply chains, and strong emphasis on local innovation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result,</strong> China’s relative exposure to the rest of the world in terms of people, capital, and technology has declined.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,</strong> the rest of the world’s exposure to China, which has increased at a steady pace over the past decade, in part as a result of the globalization of supply chains, as well as the expansion of the Chinese middle class, is now in question.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The forces</strong> that were already driving a restructuring of the relationship between China and the global economy may with COVID-19 be accelerating this trend on a global scale.’ (Exhibit 3, above)</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘Rising competitive intensity’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leading companies</strong> have secured an outsize share of economic profit and return on investment, but cut-throat competition means their dominance is often short-lived.’ (Exhibit 4, above)</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘COVID-19 will raise competitive intensity,</strong> creating even bigger rewards, and risks, for market-leading companies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In China,</strong> the top 10% of companies capture about 90 percent of total profit in the economy.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Strong performers</strong> in the top decile tend to have robust digital capabilities, as well as agility, and high labor productivity.' &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'However, top performers</strong> in China cannot be complacent as leadership is highly contested.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Only 36 percent of the firms</strong> in the top quintile in China were able to protect their position over a period of 10 years, compared with 53 percent in North America.' &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Consumers come of age’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Chinese consumers</strong> have long been a major driver of global consumption, especially the affluent younger generation who have never experienced a domestic economic downturn.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘COVID-19 has changed that,</strong> forcing consumers to think harder about spending, borrowing, and trade-offs in purchasing behaviour.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. ‘Private and social sectors step up’</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'During the 2003 SARS outbreak,</strong> the government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were the primary actors in the economy, and therefore led the country’s response to the crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s response to COVID-19,</strong> however, has been orchestrated by a blend of state and private institutions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While SOEs again played a critical role,</strong> the private sector, in particular leading technology companies, made notable contributions to relief and recovery efforts. Policy debates also indicate COVID-19 might be accelerating long-awaited structural reforms to land, financial, and labor markets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 13, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6czYMy?track_p_id=bUB6bgpV2idi7do1z4_NgFs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6czYMy?track_p_id=1g7do1z4_HXFtg3UwF3ClwU" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">What Would Reagan Do?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today’s issue</strong> covers:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. </strong></span>&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Former National Security Advisor</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">General H.R. McMaster’s</strong> essay on China – an excellent explication of the hawkish view. More below.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. </strong></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s new ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy,</strong> or how China give up on diplomacy. &nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign policy experts</strong> believe that China’s decades-long effort to engage with the west has run its course.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s “wolf warrior” diplomats</strong> — named after a set of films in which Chinese special-operations fighters defeat western-led mercenaries — have emerged over the past three years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the virus</strong> has pushed their combative tactics to the centre of Beijing’s foreign policy approach.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. </strong></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">My interview with Tony Saich</strong> of the Harvard Kennedy School about of how Chinese Communist Party legacies inform the Party’s actions today. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In Hong Kong,</strong> you start with the Party’s belief that it is infallible – it can never make a mistake.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">From this</strong>, two things follow.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first is the demonstrations</strong> can never be because of policy mistakes by the Communist Party itself.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So the Party believes</strong> it must be a small band of people who are creating this trouble - it can never be a broader general population that's inciting trouble.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's very hard for the Party</strong> to believe that these movements can be generated with a wide response to Party policy without some cell, without some organization operating secretly, really pushing these forward.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That really derives</strong> from other aspects of its own history.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Party itself</strong> originated as a secret, clandestine organization - and it was a cellular structure.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That creates</strong> a conspiratorial mindset in Party leaders.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second recourse mechanism</strong> is, because the party is infallible, looking for scapegoats.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the case of Hong Kong, it was </strong>blame the foreigners (which again, we see continually).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. </strong></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">A head’s up about a great China webinar series</strong> from the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. &nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5. </strong></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">A fairly unconvincing vindication</strong> of President Trump’s trade policy in a NYT op-ed by USTR Robert Lighthizer, in which he contends that U.S. businesses are ‘reshoring’ to America. &nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some say crises don’t so much </strong>alter the course of history as accelerate changes already underway.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s certainly the case</strong> when it comes to the coronavirus pandemic and the offshoring of American jobs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This followed by insights</strong> from an outstanding report on ‘reshoring’ to the U.S. from Kearney, the consulting firm, that corrects Mr. Ligththizer’s out of context use of its findings. Preview:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The dramatic reversal</strong> of the Reshoring Index is primarily due to a major drop in imports from the traditional 14 “low cost countries” (LCCs), not from a significant rise in US manufacturing output.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Might such a strategic redistribution</strong> spur a dynamic resurgence of US domestic manufacturing?’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It seems unlikely.’</strong></li></ul></li></ul><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Thoughts about McMaster on China</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Atlantic </strong>has published an excerpt from General H.R. McMaster’s upcoming book.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The former National Security Advisor</strong> asserts:</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The party’s leaders believe</strong> they have a narrow window of strategic opportunity to strengthen their rule and revise the international order in their favor—'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘—before China’s economy sours,</strong> before the population grows old, before other countries realize that the party is pursuing national rejuvenation at their expense, and before unanticipated events such as the coronavirus pandemic expose the vulnerabilities the party created in the race to surpass the United States and realize the China dream.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For me, the state visit</strong> to Beijing [in 2017]—and exposure to China’s powerful combination of insecurity and ambition—reinforced my belief that the United States and other nations must no longer adhere to a view of China based mainly on Western aspirations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If we compete aggressively,</strong> we have reason for confidence.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not so long ago, </strong>General McMaster's views would be viewed as hawkish.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But hawkish</strong> is now mainstream.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And not so long ago,</strong> there was a balance of sorts with some asking in the extreme, 'China's not the enemy - why can't we just get along?'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That's pretty much gone now</strong> – but expect and hope that that comes back.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We need some balance</strong> in the discourse.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">General McMaster concludes</strong> with a series of prescriptions. All good.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yet in laying out</strong> these individual actions, he really points at the big problem.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Trump administration now</strong> – rightly or wrongly - deems China an adversary.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it’s objectives</strong> in countering the adversary are either moving targets or not effective.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">(If anyone believes </strong>that&nbsp;U.S. tariffs can persuade the Chinese Communist Party to change China’s economic model – and the political control that goes with it – you might as well throw in a demand for full and fair democratic elections.)</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">No firm objectives</strong> and thus no comprehensive strategy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Only</strong> haphazard tactics.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While we will not be</strong> in a Soviet-style Cold War or, with wise policies, not in any Cold War with China, I have often thought about how the original Cold War was brought to end.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Although there is much debate</strong> about his role, I, as one who lived through his era, give a great deal of credit to President Ronald Reagan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So, as we flounder </strong>in our policies on China, I often ask:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What would Reagan</strong> – with his clear objective of ending not winning the Cold War, strong allies, and a great team - <strong style="font-weight: bold">do about China?</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, as I often as my friends,</strong> ‘Can you imagine today’s confrontation with China handled by Reagan and his team?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think.</strong> And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">1. McMaster on China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/UbsKQ9kIQQarV8q_ThLuwDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7fZISe?track_p_id=0532nR0_mOUFR3MHxorHVJM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Dk9ylcOkwjrZqhgAC9ICK0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7fZISe?track_p_id=26u532nR0_Vv%401XLDzbniME" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">General H. R. McMaster: What China Wants</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Atlantic</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">General H.R. McMaster</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The party’s leaders believe they have a narrow window of strategic opportunity to strengthen their rule and revise the international order in their favor.'</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An excerpt </strong>from former National Security Advisor Gen. McMaster’s upcoming book, <em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">.</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leaving China</strong> [after a state visit with President Trump in 2017], I was even more convinced than I had been before that a dramatic shift in U.S. policy was overdue.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Forbidden City</strong> [toured during the visit] was supposed to convey confidence in China’s national rejuvenation and its return to the world stage as the proud Middle Kingdom.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But for me it exposed</strong> the fears as well as the ambitions that drive the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to extend China’s influence along its frontiers and beyond, and to regain the honor lost during the century of humiliation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The fears and ambitions</strong> are inseparable.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They explain</strong> why the Chinese Communist Party is obsessed with control—both internally and externally.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The party’s leaders believe</strong> they have a narrow window of strategic opportunity to strengthen their rule and revise the international order in their favor—'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘—before China’s economy sours,</strong> before the population grows old, before other countries realize that the party is pursuing national rejuvenation at their expense, and before unanticipated events such as the coronavirus pandemic expose the vulnerabilities the party created in the race to surpass the United States and realize the China dream.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese Communist Party</strong> is not going to liberalize its economy or its form of government.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not going to play</strong> by commonly accepted international rules—rather, it will attempt to undermine and eventually replace them with rules more sympathetic to China’s interests.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China will continue</strong> to combine its form of economic aggression, including unfair trade practices, with a sustained campaign of industrial espionage.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In terms of projecting power,</strong> China will continue to seek control of strategic geographic locations and establish exclusionary areas of primacy.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, on balance,</strong> the Chinese Communist Party’s goals run counter to American ideals and American interests.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The party’s efforts to exert control</strong> inside China are far better known than its parallel efforts beyond China’s borders.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here again,</strong> insecurity and ambition are mutually reinforcing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese leaders aim</strong> to put in place a modern-day version of the tributary system that Chinese emperors used to establish authority over vassal states.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under that system,</strong> kingdoms could trade and enjoy peace with the Chinese empire in return for submission.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China intends</strong> to establish a new tributary system through a massive effort organized under three overlapping policies, carrying the names “Made in China 2025,” “Belt and Road Initiative,” and “Military-Civil Fusion.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Military-Civil Fusion</strong> encourages state-owned and private enterprises to acquire companies with advanced technologies, or a strong minority stake in those companies, so that the technologies can be applied for not only economic but also military and intelligence advantage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without effective pushback</strong> from the United States and like-minded nations,’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China will become even more aggressive</strong> in promoting its statist economy and authoritarian political model.&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'For me, the state visit</strong> to Beijing—and exposure to China’s powerful combination of insecurity and ambition—reinforced my belief that the United States and other nations must no longer adhere to a view of China based mainly on Western aspirations.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If we compete aggressively,</strong> we have reason for confidence.'&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s behavior</strong> is galvanizing opposition among countries that do not want to be vassal states.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Internally,</strong> the tightening of control is also eliciting opposition.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bravado of Li Keqiang</strong> and other officials may be intended to evoke the idea of China as sovereign of “everything beneath heaven,” but many beneath heaven do not, and must not, agree.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">2. China's 'Wolf Warriors'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7xjcmm?track_p_id=2iD8mgWZa_LtB23UwX4lXpi" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7xjcmm?track_p_id=bTbJ3uina4lF8mgWZa_VTVN" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Wolf warrior’ diplomats reveal China’s ambitions</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China’s decades-long effort to engage with the west has run its course.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s diplomats</strong> have done away with diplomacy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign policy experts</strong> believe that China’s decades-long effort to engage with the west has run its course.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s “wolf warrior” diplomats</strong> — named after a set of films in which Chinese special-operations fighters defeat western-led mercenaries — have emerged over the past three years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the virus</strong> has pushed their combative tactics to the centre of Beijing’s foreign policy approach.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese and western analysts</strong> said that watching Europe and US struggle to contain the epidemic had helped convince Beijing that it would eclipse America as a global power.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We are seeing version 2.0</strong> of the assertiveness Beijing exhibited following the 2008 global financial crisis,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US think-tank.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It is a result of the conviction</strong> of their rising power versus a west in decline.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The mindset now</strong> is more to coerce counterparts to respect China’s interests as co-operative security is seen as less and less effective,” said Zhao Tong, a senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Zhao described</strong> the shift as an “accelerating process” driven by President Xi Jinping’s ambition and US hostility towards China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As early as 2009,</strong> then vice-president Xi revealed deep-rooted dislike of the west.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Some foreigners</strong> who have eaten their fill have nothing better to do than point fingers at us,” he told a Chinese audience in Mexico.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “We don’t export</strong> revolution, poverty or hunger, and we don’t cause you any trouble, so what is there for you to complain about?” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to Mr Zhao,</strong> Washington’s China policy contributed to the change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “From the Obama administration’s</strong> ‘rebalance of Asia’, Chinese apprehension that the US has ideological designs on China, that the US does not want to interact peacefully with China strengthened,” he said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other Chinese scholars</strong> said such concerns gathered pace after the Trump administration started naming China as an adversary in security documents.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After international criticism</strong> of the country intensified over the Communist party’s re-education camps in Xinjiang and its handling of the Hong Kong protests, the leadership called for a “fighting spirit” across Chinese society.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those instructions</strong> were passed on to diplomats by Wang Yi, foreign minister.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The so-called bottom-line thinking</strong> towards the west, the conviction that we must fully comprehend the hostility from the US, has now become very dominant, even if this is not expressed frequently in public,” said Mr Zhao.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">3. The Interview: Tony Saich</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/YmnqzvDUrhrvf_WlDkC47Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Ftx6u?track_p_id=cXFcAxr4wyHJf7NgFLy_6Zo" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Ftx6u?track_p_id=eIwDfyUxKSiLtIU7NgFLy_u" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Party is Infallible</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tony Saich </strong>| Harvard Kennedy School</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The Hong Kong demonstrations can never be because of policy mistakes by the Communist Party itself.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">During our interview, Tony Saich </strong>of the Harvard Kennedy School told me:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong,</strong> with its responses to the demonstrations, <strong style="font-weight: bold">and</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">the Coronavirus</strong> are both illustrative examples of how the culture of the Communist Party and the traditions it's built up over almost a hundred years reflect the way it behaves when it's confronted by certain crises.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In Hong Kong,</strong> you start with the Party’s belief that it is infallible – it can never make a mistake.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">From this</strong>, two things follow.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first is the demonstrations</strong> can never be because of policy mistakes by the Communist Party itself.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So the Party believes</strong> it must be a small band of people who are creating this trouble - it can never be a broader general population that's inciting trouble.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It's very hard for the Party</strong> to believe that these movements can be generated with a wide response to Party policy without some cell, without some organization operating secretly, really pushing these forward.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That really derives</strong> from other aspects of its own history.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Party itself</strong> originated as a secret, clandestine organization - and it was a cellular structure.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That creates</strong> a conspiratorial mindset in Party leaders.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second recourse mechanism</strong> is, because the party is infallible, looking for scapegoats.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the case of Hong Kong, it was </strong>blame the foreigners (which again, we see continually).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It's the foreigners;</strong> it's people from Taiwan who have been instigating this; it's the U.S.; it’s the various democracy organizations in the West that have been pushing this as a part of their attempts to constrain and ultimately overthrow the Chinese Communist Party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Ftx6u?track_p_id=7hBMcx3y7NgFLy_CRyENdlG" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Ftx6u?track_p_id=a1UIonzqS167NgFLy_mKSIH" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Vertical Reporting System</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/J0nJADEEbxAkBpncuVpRLzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:10px 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right:0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This reporting up and down means that there can be considerable delays before people realize what is going on and to get messages out.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We again see some of those legacies</strong> influencing the way the Party dealt with the Coronavirus outbreak.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, the Party has a vertical reporting system</strong> -&nbsp; vertical silos - that eschews any kind of horizontal engagement.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This reporting up and down</strong> means that there can be considerable delays before people realize what is going on and to get messages out.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And related to that</strong> is the pressure on local officials not to admit mistakes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result</strong> they often bury things until really there is no alternative but to recognize them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here’s an anecdote. ‘I was in Beijing in 1999</strong> when 10,000 practitions of the the Falun Gang [a Chinese religious practice] gathered near Zhongnanhai [the central government compound where the leadship lives].’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Afterwards I was talking</strong> to Party officials who told two things shocked them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The first:</strong> "How did our intelligence systems miss this?"</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Well, that’s because the Falun Gang</strong> organized itself like the revolutionary Communist Party - in small cells. You could break one cell, but you couldn’t find out about the others.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second thing,</strong> one official told me, “Do you know what worried me most?"&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"There was no trash </strong>on the ground when they left."</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Could you imagine</strong> 10,000 of our soldiers gathering and not leaving loads of trash? That shows they're organized.”&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that</strong> frightened him.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">4. Great Webinar Series</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Y4HR2?track_p_id=7gobLJoe6EYu7i_lCQZHzV4" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TUc8_qUpmMr0uE6ANYfMcUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8Y4HR2?track_p_id=9J2Vxz2S6K6EYu7i_UnF6Wb" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Another Great China Webinar Series</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">European Union Chamber of Commerce in China</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Learn more and register </strong><a href="https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/upcoming-events/17261/Get_the_Premium_Monthly_Pass_to_VIP_Webinar_Series#overview" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">here</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To celebrate the European Chamber’s 20th&nbsp;anniversary</strong>, starting from&nbsp;May, we will host a&nbsp;‘VIP Webinar&nbsp;Series’ with the world’s leading industry experts, scholars, political consultants and strategists,&nbsp;on a variety of topics including economy, politics, technology, sustainability, EU-China Relation and EU-China-US Triangle.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This VIP webinar series</strong> aims to provide insights and discussions through interactive dialogues with the most brilliant minds around the globe.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Depending on</strong> where you live, the webinar times may be inconvenient.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But</strong> you can watch the replays.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Learn more</strong> and register <a href="https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/upcoming-events/17261/Get_the_Premium_Monthly_Pass_to_VIP_Webinar_Series#overview" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">5. Trump's Trade Policy Vindicated (?)</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8qEblA?track_p_id=2Ca6d7ypC_1pXqQxLJ2UtkR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8qEblA?track_p_id=4ad3b6d7ypC_RTqNAmpBjql" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | Coronavirus Is Bringing an End to the Offshoring Era&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Robert E. Lighthizer</strong> | U.S. Trade Representative</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The era of reflexive offshoring is over, and with it the old overzealous emphasis on efficiency and the concomitant lack of concern for the jobs that were lost.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some say crises don’t so much </strong>alter the course of history as accelerate changes already underway.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s certainly the case</strong> when it comes to the coronavirus pandemic and the offshoring of American jobs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years,</strong> businesses have been rethinking the way that overextended, overseas supply lines expose them to unacceptable risks, a reassessment that got a boost from President Trump’s reorientation of U.S. trade policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new policy</strong> consisted of aggressive enforcement of prior trade commitments, renegotiating job-destroying trade deals like NAFTA and the&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/korus-fta" rel="nofollow">United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement</a>, and taking on China’s predatory trade and economic policies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many businesses protested</strong> that this policy shift created uncertainty. President Trump’s response was simple:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you want certainty,</strong> bring your plants back to America.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you want the benefits </strong>of being a U.S. company, and the protection of the U.S. legal system, then bring back the jobs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As a result of these developments,</strong> the offshoring frenzy started to abate.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since the administration</strong> first imposed duties on Chinese imports in July 2018, American companies including Apple, Whirlpool and Stanley Black &amp; Decker have either scrapped offshoring plans or announced decisions to move production to the United States.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Automotive companies</strong> have announced $34 billion in new U.S. investment as a result of the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.kearney.com/operations-performance-transformation/us-reshoring-index" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kearney Reshoring Index</strong></a>, which measures companies’ global production strategies, shifted significantly in 2019:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reversing a five-year trend,</strong> imports of manufactured goods from low-wage Asian countries fell while U.S. domestic manufacturing output remained strong.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our experience</strong> of the past two months will only accelerate this reversal.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/a5NyyYO-73LUS9JXrfLOBzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/98Ow5I?track_p_id=2%40M5SSfWg_YSRo%40KUb3Emq2" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/oNQRdD-ohvT0H8IdLQsjBEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/98Ow5I?track_p_id=3UlZ5SSfWg_KqKSGIFZFmOY" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trade war spurs sharp reversal in 2019 Reshoring Index</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kearney</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Might such a strategic redistribution spur a dynamic resurgence of US domestic manufacturing? It seems unlikely.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read </strong>the 19-page report <a href="https://www.kearney.com/documents/20152/5708085/2020+Reshoring+Index.pdf/ba38cd1e-c2a8-08ed-5095-2e3e8c93e142?t=1586876044101" rel="nofollow">here</a></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Kearney’s seventh annual Reshoring Index</strong> revealed a dramatic reversal of a five-year trend, as domestic US manufacturing in 2019 commanded a significantly greater share versus the 14 Asian low-cost countries (LCCs) tracked in our study, with manufacturing imports from China registering a particularly sharp decline.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘2019 saw companies</strong> actively adapting to what then felt like a major disruption—the US–China trade war—by reducing imports of manufactured goods from China while increasing manufacturing imports from the other countries in our Asia low-cost countries (LCC sample), as well as from Mexico.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The dramatic reversal</strong> of the Reshoring Index is primarily due to a major drop in imports from the traditional 14 LCCs, not from a significant rise in US manufacturing output.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nevertheless,</strong> the balance between imports and domestic production clearly shifted in 2019, as domestic manufacturing commanded a substantially bigger slice of the pie.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">By a substantially increased margin,</strong> US companies chose to source more goods domestically than offshore.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Might such a strategic redistribution</strong> spur a dynamic resurgence of US domestic manufacturing? It seems unlikely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The limitations</strong> that held US manufacturing to flat growth in 2019, even as the trade war put Chinese manufacturing at a decided disadvantage, will continue to work against a US manufacturing revival.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is still a pronounced shortage </strong>of skilled manufacturing labor, and the long-promised productivity boom via automation has yet to be realized.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yes, companies </strong>will be more inclined to look at new sourcing options, but they will still want to place most of their eggs in cost-competitive baskets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 9 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 40px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8P14kK?track_p_id=9oy3zIDI6s6c8R4A_ybEQYS" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Abolish the WTO. Confront China.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Confront China</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard Nixon,</strong> in a 1967 essay in Foreign Affairs, stated that ‘‘The world cannot be safe until China changes. Thus our aim, to the extent that we can influence events, should be to induce change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He goes on to consider the options</strong> for inducing change, ranging from ‘preëmptive war’ to an ‘anti-Chinese alliance with European powers’ to the ‘United States to go it alone in containing China.’ And rejects them all.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">His preferred solution</strong> seems to be ‘containment without isolation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That solution may be</strong> making a comeback - except as 'containment <ins style="text-decoration: underline"><em style="font-style: italic">with</em></ins><em style="font-style: italic"></em>isolation.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In a WSJ editorial last week, </strong>&nbsp;Elbridge Colby&nbsp;and&nbsp;A. Wess Mitchell, two former U.S. officials wrote: <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The U.S. and its allies</strong> can’t protect their interests without confronting China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But confrontation</strong> will change Beijing’s incentives, making it more likely to assert itself sooner rather than later.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Great-power competition</strong> may have lain dormant during the era of unfettered globalization, but the pandemic has brought it roaring back.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The West</strong> must recognize that it will either pay now or pay later to contain China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Paying now</strong> is likely to produce a more tolerable bill.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Abolish the WTO</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For some time,</strong> President Trump has railed against international organizations and, in the case of the WTO, gutted its appellate body.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But, so far he</strong> has not made a serious move to withdraw from the organization.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That call came last week</strong> from Trump supporter and senator from Missouri, Josh Hawley, in an op-ed in The New York Times and in a joint senate resolution for the U.S. to withdraw from the WTO.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the editorial, </strong>he wrote:</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The W.T.O. should be abolished,</strong> and along with it, the new model global economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The quest to turn the world</strong> into a liberal order of democracies was always misguided.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It always depended</strong> on unsustainable American sacrifice and force of arms.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And its companion economic order</strong> has, in a similar vein, succeeded mostly in weakening American workers and industry.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Could either of these prescriptions </strong>become new competing trends? Absolutely.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And could they,</strong> as Dani Rodrik suggests, become entrenched? Absolutely.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What Happens When China Doesn't Buy Enough</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But adding to the immediate uncertainty</strong> in trade is the increasing possibility that China will not make its Phase One trade deal purchases. (#2 here).</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s not meeting</strong> its commitment is a lot more certain that President Trump’s reaction.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I’m very torn,”</strong> Trump said in an interview on Fox News, adding that he had "not decided" whether to maintain the deal.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The reality is that even</strong> in pandemic-induced economic freefall, the president may entrench his favorite trade tool, tariffs.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And restarting the trade war</strong> just to look tough on China as the election approaches.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Pompeo, 'Public Enemy'</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the first part of my interview with Tony Saich</strong> of the Harvard Kennedy School</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Tony explains</strong> why Party rhetoric is so vicious – with the latest target, ‘Public Enemy’ Mike Pompeo<strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think</strong> and please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues. Thanks!</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">1. Confronting China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8hBP4S?track_p_id=4zAl37WYUDW_ZWjauf1hlA2" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Containing China Will Be Complicated</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8hBP4S?track_p_id=eK%40J4gpOL3PwSRI7WYUDW_f" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/4ODpUbdyLF565RmNvo9xOzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Elbridge Colby&nbsp;and&nbsp;A. Wess Mitchell</strong> | <em style="font-style: italic">Marathon Initiative</em></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. and its allies can’t protect their interests without confronting China.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Covid-19 pandemic</strong> has convinced many that the U.S. must fundamentally change its policy toward China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Shifting course is necessary,</strong> but it won’t be achieved with a few policy tweaks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s because</strong> the pandemic’s political and economic effects are bringing about a more assertive Chinese grand strategy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing was cruising to global domination</strong> and had no good reason to pick a fight.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing can no longer</strong> prudently assume a glide path to dominance in the post-pandemic world.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Where it once had a strong incentive</strong> to bide its time, Beijing will now see a need for action to ensure continued economic growth, which underpins the Communist Party’s legitimacy and underwrites China’s bid for regional hegemony.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To secure this hegemony in Asia,</strong> Beijing will need to short-circuit or, if necessary, pry apart any coalition—formal or informal—that forms to check its aspiration.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. and its allies</strong> can’t protect their interests without confronting China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But confrontation</strong> will change Beijing’s incentives, making it more likely to assert itself sooner rather than later.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Great-power competition</strong> may have lain dormant during the era of unfettered globalization, but the pandemic has brought it roaring back.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The West</strong> must recognize that it will either pay now or pay later to contain China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Paying now</strong> is likely to produce a more tolerable bill.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">2. If China Doesn't Buy Enough</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8zLjOa?track_p_id=9CI3ANGXtz6jMMfe_uDzpE6" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s Poor Purchasing Performance: How Should the United States Respond?&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8zLjOa?track_p_id=8pfeXm6wQ6jMMfe_THNellG" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/R0j8YuRTL5_nugy7QK7cfzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies (CSIS)</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Scott Kennedy </strong>| CSIS</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Projected over the entire year, U.S. goods exports to China might only be $60.0 billion - not the projected $186.6 billion - meaning a shortfall of $129.6 billion.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.-China Phase One </strong>deal’s most ambitious component, China’s commitment to increase purchases of U.S. goods and services by over $200 billion by the end of 2021, was also its riskiest.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The targets</strong> were never realistic; they were just gaudy numbers meant to impress.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pandemic</strong> made the unrealistic the impossible.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Projected over the entire year,</strong> U.S. goods exports to China might only be $60.0 billion - not the projected $186.6 billion - meaning a shortfall of $129.6 billion.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Admittedly,</strong> this is a worst-case scenario, because Chinese imports are likely to rise as the economy recovers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And integrating in the Chinese data,</strong> which will count U.S. goods that were transshipped through Hong Kong as imports, will also help.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But those amendments</strong> will not change the overall picture, just the details.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given this poor performance,</strong> what should the Trump administration do? Realistically, it has three choices.’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first option</strong> is to use the agreement’s “bilateral evaluation and dispute resolution” mechanism by submitting an “appeal” to the Chinese and going through the multistage process to reach some sort of resolution, such as renegotiated targets, and failing that, to move forward with some sort of “remedial measure,” such as tariffs.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second option</strong> would be to forgo those consultations and quickly enact penalties and possibly withdraw from the deal entirely.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The third option</strong> would be to not submit any sort of complaint, recognizing that China’s ability to import has been hampered by the pandemic, that its imports will rise over the remainder of the year, and that it has made incremental progress on every other element of the agreement.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a fourth option,</strong> but it is not one the administration will choose:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Admit that the purchases component</strong> of the deal was a mistake to begin with and reconsider their entire approach to China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/9HW3ii?track_p_id=8oXwYGbbB98TI0E_va1OBjT" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump casts doubt on U.S.-China trade deal, contradicting his officials</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HW3ii?track_p_id=ekYwzTcq33Dz2eb98TI0E_z" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/5Uh1KkvpvZ3txLBDSHZcQDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Politico</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I'm having a very hard time with China."</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> suggested again on Friday that he could abandon his trade deal with China that was signed less than four months ago with great fanfare.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “I’m very torn,”</strong> Trump said in an interview on Fox News, adding that he had "not decided" whether to maintain the deal.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The remark came</strong> less than 12 hours after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>spoke<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2020/may/ustr-and-treasury-statement-call-china" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">released a joint statement</a>&nbsp;saying they were optimistic China would meet its purchase commitments under the deal<strong style="font-weight: bold">.’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Over the past several years,</strong> Trump has often been more pessimistic than his advisers regarding the state of trade relations with China, in an apparent attempt to keep the pressure on Beijing.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4u9XN2?track_p_id=2XE8jhVr4_dQUibl4KIJeU3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">US looks to step up economic action against China&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We are watching closely.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The deterioration in US-China relations</strong> has been particularly jarring given the trade truce reached in January by Mr Trump and China’s president Xi Jinping, which ended almost two years of tariff threats between the world’s largest economies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While limited in its scope,</strong> the agreement raised hopes that it could deliver some stability to the economic relationship until after November’s US presidential election.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But Mr Trump is now warning China</strong> that Washington could ditch the agreement if Beijing fails to follow through on its planned purchases of American goods, reviving the threat of higher tariffs on Chinese imports.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr Trump on Wednesday</strong> said his administration would assess China’s compliance with the agreement within the next two weeks. “We are watching closely,” Mr Trump said.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“They understand.</strong> They have a deal. Hopefully they are going to keep the deal. We’ll see. They may, they may not. We are going to find out.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Mr Trump,</strong> there is a pressing political rationale for reverting to a tough stance towards China: the presidential election is less than six months away.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Joe Biden,</strong> his presumptive Democratic challenger, has attacked him for playing down the threat of the virus while praising Mr Xi’s leadership in the final stages of the trade talks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">3. "Abolish the WTO"</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5CJrhA?track_p_id=3XiL8vCXfi_pMpzK63EAtKB" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"> WTO Haters Dust Off a Depression-Era Plan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5CJrhA?track_p_id=2lD8vCXfi_NWdwcmmh2MUwT" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/jBc7iN8xhwLcmwKLHFW1Ozl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington is giving off some mixed signals about whether it wants to dismantle the&nbsp;World Trade Organization&nbsp;or use it to advance America’s economic interests.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington is giving off</strong> some mixed signals about whether it wants to dismantle the&nbsp;World Trade Organization&nbsp;or use it to advance America’s economic interests.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Wednesday,</strong> the U.S. Trade Representative&nbsp;Robert Lighthizer&nbsp;said that America has fulfilled its&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2020/may/us-notifies-full-compliance-wto-aircraft-dispute" rel="nofollow">WTO obligations</a> in the decades-long&nbsp;Boeing-Airbus trade dispute and urged the European Union to broker a final deal that “respects the WTO’s findings.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But just a day earlier,</strong> a Republican senator from Missouri,&nbsp;Josh Hawley, said the WTO was nothing more than an outmoded “relic” that&nbsp;should be abolished.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The dichotomy of these views</strong> reflects the double-edged nature of the WTO.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The rules-based international trading&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-01-28/the-wto-must-reform-or-die" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">regime may</strong></a> be flawed and outdated but its existence is overwhelmingly more beneficial to U.S. economic interests than its absence.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a theory</strong> was tested 90 years ago.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 1930 Representative Willis Hawley</strong> — who is not related to the current senator, according to staff — sought to protect domestic farmers and manufacturers with legislation that would broadly increase America’s tariffs on foreign goods.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In doing so Hawley</strong> rebuffed the League of Nations’ call to end tariffs and embark on a coordinated campaign of global trade liberalization.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘America’s allies and foes</strong> quickly retaliated against the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which led to a cascading global&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/coronavirus-putting-minorities-and-the-less-skilled-out-of-work" rel="nofollow">economic crisis that</a> increased the severity and the length of the Great Depression.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘So the Twitter crowd </strong>was quick to point out the irony that today, as the world wades through another historic economic collapse, a U.S. lawmaker named Hawley is again urging America to toss aside the global economic order.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Suggesting we kill off the organization</strong> is like throwing the baby out with the bathwater,” said Bill Reinsch, a senior&nbsp;adviser&nbsp;at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“He would take us back not</strong> to the '50s and '60s but to the '30s, where nation-state sovereignty ruled and countries pursued beggar-thy-neighbor policies.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5UUC1I?track_p_id=1z8oflgE_fhNvcs5Fz%40FjF4" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Senator Hawley Introduces Joint Resolution to Withdraw from WTO</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5UUC1I?track_p_id=9uzOpFVJbI8oflgE_qg3%40ih" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1ctklSHHtlBRvsTPZ5D2WTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Office of Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced a&nbsp;joint resolution&nbsp;to withdraw the United States from the World Trade Organization (WTO).</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The Office of Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thursday, May 7, 2020’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today U.S. Senator Josh Hawley</strong> (R-Mo.) introduced a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/Hawley-WTO-Resolution.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">joint resolution</a>&nbsp;to withdraw the United States from the World Trade Organization (WTO).'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Earlier this week,</strong> Senator Hawley penned an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/opinion/hawley-abolish-wto-china.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">op-ed in the<em style="font-style: italic">&nbsp;New York Times</em></a>&nbsp;calling for the United States to lead the way to abolishing the WTO as the Chinese Communist Party has weaponized the WTO to its benefit at the expense of American workers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"The coronavirus pandemic</strong> has exposed deep, long-standing flaws in our global economic system that demand reform.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“International organizations like the W.T.O. </strong>have enabled the rise of China and benefitted elites around the globe while hollowing out American industry, from small towns to once-thriving urban centers.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We need to return</strong> production to America, secure critical supply chains, and encourage domestic innovation.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Pulling out of the W.T.O.</strong> is a good first step."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Senator Hawley’</strong></em></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The joint resolution</strong> is available&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hawley.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/Hawley-WTO-Resolution.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5meWLQ?track_p_id=053uh1K_Wa3izREav%40tKLs3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opinion | Josh Hawley: The WTO Should Be Abolished&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Josh Hawley </strong>| Senator from Missouri</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘The W.T.O. should be abolished, and along with it, the new model global economy.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The W.T.O. should be abolished,</strong> and along with it, the new model global economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The quest to turn the world</strong> into a liberal order of democracies was always misguided.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It always depended</strong> on unsustainable American sacrifice and force of arms.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And its companion economic order</strong> has, in similar vein, succeeded mostly in weakening American workers and industry.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The only sure way to confront</strong> the single greatest threat to American security in the 21st century, Chinese imperialism, is to rebuild the U.S. economy and to build up the American worker.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that means</strong> reforming the global economic system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Abandoning the W.T.O.</strong> is a start.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> must seek new arrangements and new rules, in concert with other free nations, to restore America’s economic sovereignty and allow this country to practice again the capitalism that made it strong.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">4. How Mike Pompeo Became a 'Public Enemy'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6MzAzg?track_p_id=2A379zNNO_5eawagWo3kIAT" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Pompeo, “Public Enemy”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6MzAzg?track_p_id=bOHOcC%40PfDMs79zNNO_B%40Cb" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/BKXt_6ojCyTpsW8YiNLUxzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Media Project</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Such direct attacks on a senior US official are very rare indeed — and a sign of just how seriously relations have deteriorated.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'As the war of words</strong> with the United States grows louder, the “public enemy” spotlight seems to have turned from the virus to Pompeo.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The language is poisonous and personal,</strong> recalling the heat of attacks made against the public enemies of China’s past.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Pompeo is</strong> “wicked Pompeo” (邪恶蓬佩奥). His remarks point to a “nervous disorder” (神经错乱). He “carries four sins on his shoulders” (背负四宗罪). He has “broken through the bottom line of being human” (突破做人底线).'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Such direct attacks</strong> on a senior US official are very rare indeed — and a sign of just how seriously relations have deteriorated.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In this war of words,</strong> one word in particular should grab our attention — “public enemy,” or&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">gongdi</em>&nbsp;(公敌).'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Looking back into PRC history,</strong> we can find a string such “public enemies,” from the Kuomingtang leader Chiang Kai-shek to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/caixin-media/praise-hu-feng" rel="nofollow">Hu Feng</a>, the writer who dared to criticize Mao Zedong’s views on art and literature. From American imperialism to the Falun Gong and more recently the novel coronavirus.'</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_____________________________________</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">During our interview Tony Saich</strong> said, ‘There's also an extraordinary level of violence in within Chinese Communist Party rhetoric.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There's a viciousness</strong> often in the way of denouncing people and discrediting people.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This characteristic</strong> of the Party comes from two sources.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'One is</strong> its Leninist and Marxist inheritance - that is language about struggle and conflict.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'And, two, its own experiences</strong> before 1949, which is one of a war - you do see that war metaphors continually run through a lot of the language.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I remember asking a Chinese colleague</strong>, “Don't you think this sort of language creates a negative atmosphere to the people outside China?” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the response was,</strong> “But it’s in Chinese” - not having the understanding that maybe people are actually looking at the Chinese sources to see what the Chinese leadership are thinking.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">5. A Look Back with Richard Nixon</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:2% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6xJpdw?track_p_id=cJzVfG3pciKHK4rpcjO_SRg" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.6875em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"The world cannot be safe until China changes"</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="display:block; overflow:hidden; max-height:420px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6xJpdw?track_p_id=cTI4lv4JVYLK34rpcjO_bxQ" style="border-bottom:none;" target="_blank"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/mCDSC68vmNfVkqzsrHK7Rzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard Nixon</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world cannot be safe until China changes.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Richard Nixon </strong>wrote this article in 1967.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In 1968, </strong>he became the the 37th President of the United States.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In 1972, </strong>he became the first American president to visit the PRC, which led to the normalization of relations between the U.S. and the PRC in 1978.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">________________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taking the long view,</strong> we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations, there to nurture its fantasies, cherish its hates and threaten its neighbors.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world cannot</strong> be safe until China changes.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus our aim,</strong> to the extent that we can influence events, should be to induce change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some counsel</strong> conceding to China a "sphere of influence" embracing much of the Asian mainland and extending even to the island nations beyond.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Others urge</strong> that we eliminate the threat by preëmptive war.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Others argue</strong> that we should seek an anti-Chinese alliance with European powers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the United States</strong> to go it alone in containing China would not only place an unconscionable burden on our own country, but also would heighten the chances of nuclear war while undercutting the independent development of the nations of Asia.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the long run,</strong> it means pulling China back into the world community—but as a great and progressing nation, not as the epicenter of world revolution.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "Containment without isolation"</strong> is a good phrase and a sound concept, as far as it goes.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it covers</strong> only half the problem.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Along with it,</strong> we need a positive policy of pressure and persuasion, of dynamic detoxification, a marshaling of Asian forces both to keep the peace and to help draw off the poison from the Thoughts of Mao.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 6, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DRyeO?track_p_id=aLesGVLM3Lg52bsly_ZDozw" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DRyeO?track_p_id=ewSj3ad3mF3X3Ef52bsly_K" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“The last thing we need is more trade war.”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. More Tariffs, Bad Idea</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My thanks to Craig Allen,</strong> president of the U.S.-China Business Council, for our interview.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Among many topics,</strong> Craig discussed the Phase One trade deal and need to lift tariffs on China during the pandemic.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regarding</strong> Phase One:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We did an interesting survey</strong> of our members.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The good news</strong> is that 80% of our members said they thought the Phase One agreement was a good thing - it was positive.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But only 19%</strong> said it was worth it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And what the 80% said</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">they are happy</strong> about was that there no more new tariffs were coming immediately.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have to remember,</strong> the United States maintains, by our rough calculation, 89% of the tariffs that were already in place.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, we have 25% tariffs</strong> on $370 billion worth of Chinese imports.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And one has to wonder</strong> if they're there in perpetuity or not.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regarding lifting tariffs</strong> on China:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We’ve been advocating that tariffs</strong> be lifted for the duration of this epidemiological and economic crisis.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Trump administration</strong> seems to want to keep the tariffs on China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Within the USTR</strong> the thinking is that this would reduce their leverage in negotiations on Phase Two.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the White House</strong> there is the belief that the President has articulated many times that the Chinese are paying the tariff, not the Americans. Therefore it would not do the Americans any good to get rid of the tariffs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think </strong>that's just factually wrong.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">it's, as the French say, an "</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">idée fixe</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">"</strong> - a fixed idea among some people, and they're just not going to change.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Have no doubt though:</strong> It's American families, American small- and medium-sized enterprises, and American farmers that are paying the tariffs.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;_____________________________________________</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Trade War, Part Two?</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The last thing we need is more trade war,”</strong> said Kit Juckes of Société Générale.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While I agree,</strong> President Trump may not.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> and his administration have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/pompeo-says-enormous-evidence-links-virus-to-wuhan-laboratory" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">sharpening their criticism</a>&nbsp;of Beijing, demanding answers about the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'That raises</strong> the specter of a resumption in the trade war at the worst possible time for global markets already pricing in heroic expectations of an economic rebound.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So why would the president</strong> pile more onto the weak global economy?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The political pressure</strong> to do something, however, is mounting within his own party.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the Republican caucus </strong>calling for China to pay a price, Trump could be&nbsp;convinced to take action before the election.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Trump will be both emboldened</strong> and compelled to take strong action against the Chinese as he realizes American voters, and in particular his political base, want accountability,” said Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And don’t forget</strong> China’s Phase One commitments.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Besides making China pay</strong> for the pandemic, the president also has to weigh how to react if China doesn’t buy enough U.S. stuff, as required in the deal.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The phase-one pact,</strong> which took effect in mid-February, is falling short on a number of fronts, including Beijing’s promises of large agriculture and energy purchases.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Trump administration</strong> so far has been hesitant to ramp up the pressure or back away from the deal altogether, even as the rhetoric on both sides heats up.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump</strong> now finds himself boxed in.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Respond too forcefully</strong> amid a growing public outcry to punish China -- with his favorite economic weapon of tariffs -- and he risks hurting consumers and businesses already facing the deepest recession since the 1930s.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a Fox News interview </strong>on Sunday night, Trump raised concerns of a resumption of economic hostilities with China, calling tariffs “the ultimate punishment” for its response to the pandemic and threatening to withdraw from the trade deal if Beijing’s purchase pledges come up short.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If that’s the “ultimate punishment,”</strong> I doubt Xi Jinping is too concerned.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How much</strong> is left for President Trump to levy tariffs on?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And much damage can tariffs</strong> do when export can produce but the U.S. isn’t open for business?</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;&nbsp;_____________________________________________</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Holding China Accountable</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Once again,</strong> the president is demonstrating his remarkable ability to change the subject and refocus public attention,' writes Bill Reinsch of the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He has started a debate</strong> about how to punish China, to which members of Congress of both parties have been happy to contribute, as they jostle among themselves to see who can take the hardest line.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If that weren’t enough,</strong> the debate about what to do to China is even more depressing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A number of astoundingly bad ideas</strong> are flopping around on the table—canceling our debt to them, taking away their sovereign immunity so they can be sued for virus damage, more tariffs, and more ideas to be named later.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Of all the ideas </strong>of how to make China pay, the only I think has legs is for Congress to peel back China’s sovereign immunity to allow U.S. citizens and government entities to sue China for damages caused by the pandemic.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But just</strong> because it has legs doesn’t mean it’s a good idea for reasons.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">First, even if a U.S. court</strong> gains jurisdiction, getting a judgment for indirect actions by the Chinese government is tough.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The bright spot</strong> would be if China refuses to participate and maybe gets a default judgment again it. Then the plaintiffs could attach the Chinese government’s overseas assets. Still a steep climb.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Second,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘expect to see retaliatory lawsuits</strong> on U.S. COVID-19 failures leading to new cases in China from those returning to China, as well as on climate change, military interventions and other issues.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington could</strong> see retaliation by Beijing that won’t be subject to the same “due process” constraints that apply in U.S. courts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This kind of lawsuit</strong> would be just as frivolous as its American counterparts, and even more materially meaningless, when there are far fewer U.S. government-owned economic assets operating in China than there are Chinese state-owned assets operating in the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if the point</strong> is to seek retaliatory humiliation in the eyes of the Chinese public or the international community, then this could be an attractive path for Beijing to follow.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As I said,</strong> not a good idea.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;_____________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4.&nbsp;Two Great Online Series</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Both</strong> the Berkeley Center for Law &amp; Technology and SupChina/View from the Peak have great online series with leading China experts.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And both</strong> have events on Wednesday, May 6.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Check the post below</strong> for details and to register.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If you miss these,</strong> check for the replays.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;&nbsp;_____________________________________________</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">5.&nbsp;Extraordinary!</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I came across</strong> two extraordinary items this week.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The first is an address</strong> from Deputy National Security Advisor, Matt Pottinger.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here's why</strong> it’s extraordinary.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Matt’s 20-minute address</strong> – on Monday, May 4, the 101st anniversary of the May Fourth Movement - was to the Chinese people directly.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the May Fourth Movement</strong> today marks the inaugural year of its second century, what will its ultimate legacy be?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a question</strong> only the Chinese people themselves can answer.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The May Fourth Movement</strong> belongs to them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will the movement’s democratic aspirations</strong> remain unfulfilled for another century?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will its core ideas</strong> be deleted or distorted through official censorship and disinformation?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will its champions be slandered</strong> as “unpatriotic,” “pro-American,” “subversive”?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We know the Communist Party</strong> will do its best to make it so.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And Matt presented </strong>his views in excellent Mandarin from the White House – a first for both.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The problem of course </strong>is that the video likely did not pierce the Great Firewall, and likely did not reach a large Chinese audience.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My only nitpick</strong> with this outstanding admonition to the Chinese people was his equating the populism of the May Fourth Movement with that of Trump’s administration and Brexit.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Not very accurate</strong> and, given the general Chinese distaste for our president, not very effective.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second is an essay</strong> by <strong style="font-weight: bold">Zi Zhongyun 資中筠,&nbsp;</strong>former head of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">She too uses Chinese history</strong> – in this case, the Boxer Rebellion of 1900 – to illuminate the situation in China today.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past,</strong> we wanted to expel the Foreign Devils.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nowadays</strong> they are packing up and leaving in droves of their own accord; to persuade them to stay will be a downright challenge.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There’s a great line,</strong> although sadly it’s not of my invention, that goes: ‘At&nbsp;the moment the trend isn’t de-globalisation as much as global&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-Sinicization" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">de-Sinicisation</strong></a>.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some forty years ago</strong> China enjoyed a fresh start when it opened the door and established an equitable relationship with America at what was to be a new phase in the relationship.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now things</strong> have been moving in reverse.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given the way things</strong> have been going in China this country is set upon making enemies for itself in all directions.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wow!</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lots to cover. So browse the posts below and go deeper into the issues your interested in.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> what you think. And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">1. The Interview: Craig Allen</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/LC4hpDylYvugVJfTI1B_tDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Why Members Are Happy with the Phase One Deal</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5w9qHg?track_p_id=ePU5f1B%40gWn3KPK64xbN0_Q" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5w9qHg?track_p_id=5rbHc564xbN0_oANWHs1tsF" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1. The Phase One Trade Deal</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Craig Allen</strong> | president, U.S.-China Business Council</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The good news is that 80% of our members said they thought the Phase One agreement was a good thing.'</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But only 19% said it was worth it.'&nbsp;</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'What the 80% said they are happy about was that there no more new tariffs were coming immediately.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">U.S.-China Business Council. </strong>'The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization of approximately 200 American companies that do business with China.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Founded in 1973,</strong> USCBC has provided unmatched information, advisory, advocacy, and program services to its members for over four decades.'&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Craig Allen.&nbsp;</strong>‘Prior to joining USCBC as president in 2018, Craig Allen had a long, distinguished career in US public service.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Craig began</strong> his government career in 1985 at the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration (ITA).’ &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2002,</strong> he was promoted to the Minister Counselor rank of the Senior Foreign Service.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He later served as</strong> Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia at the US Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration, then Deputy Assistant Secretary for China.’ &nbsp;·</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Craig became the</strong> United States ambassador to Brunei Darussalam on December 19, 2014.’ &nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_______________________________________</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. The Phase One Trade Deal</strong></ins></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘What did we accomplish</strong> in the Phase One trade deal?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Craig Allen:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Well, not a lot yet.</strong> But the Phase One deal, I think, is good.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s delivering,</strong> particularly for farmers, intellectual property rights holders, and financial services firms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Let's hope the purchase targets</strong> the Chinese and the American sides have agreed to will actually work.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we need</strong> to be realistic about that.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The trade war</strong> caused a lot of dislocation and disruption. I just don't think that was worth some extra purchases.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Craig: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Well, we did an interesting survey</strong> of our members about that.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The good news</strong> is that 80% of our members said they thought the Phase One agreement was a good thing - it was positive.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But only 19%</strong> said it was worth it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And what the 80% said</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">they are happy</strong> about was that there no more new tariffs were coming immediately.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have to remember,</strong> the United States maintains, by our rough calculation, 89% of the tariffs that were already in place.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Thus, we have 25% tariffs</strong> on $370 billion worth of Chinese imports.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And one has to wonder</strong> if they're there in perpetuity or not.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The 20% who are not happy</strong> are mostly manufacturers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American manufacturing</strong> has really been impacted by the U.S tariffs and then by the counter- tariffs from China as well.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Especially many small – and medium-size</strong> American manufacturers that bought so many industrial, intermediates - be it paint or buttons or zipper or machinery or whatever from China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Trump Wants to Keep Tariffs on China. Bad Idea.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5w9qHg?track_p_id=2tA64xbN0_6XRXSEAiqIuN1" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5w9qHg?track_p_id=54swCc64xbN0_VIAUXqrzNk" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Lift Tariffs on China during the Pandemic</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Craig Allen</strong> | president, U.S.-China Business Council</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Trump administration seems to want to keep the tariffs on China.’</strong></h2><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Should the Tariffs on China be Lifted During the Pandemic?</strong></ins></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Has the U.S.-China Business Council </strong>called for the tariffs on China to be lifted?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Craig Allen:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘We’ve been advocating that tariffs</strong> be lifted for the duration of this epidemiological and economic crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I repeated that today</strong> at the press conference on our <a href="https://www.uschina.org/reports/2020-state-export-report" rel="nofollow">‘2020 State Export Report.’</a>&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Trump administration</strong> seems to want to keep the tariffs on China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Within the USTR</strong> the thinking is that this would reduce their leverage in negotiations on Phase Two.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the White House</strong> there is the belief that the President has articulated many times that the Chinese are paying the tariff, not the Americans. Therefore it would not do the Americans any good to get rid of the tariffs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think </strong>that's just factually wrong.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">it's, as the French say, an "</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">idée fixe</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">"</strong> - a fixed idea among some people, and they're just not going to change.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Have no doubt though:</strong> It's American families, American small- and medium-size enterprises, and American farmers that are paying the tariffs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Because of our position</strong> on trade and tariffs and because we counter the president’s narrative by asserting that the Chinese are not paying the tariffs, President Trump has said somebody should look into the U.S.-China Business Council to see who's funding them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We contradict this.</strong> Our funding is 100% from American companies - not one penny from any Chinese entity.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Our positions </strong>are those that we believe benefit U.S. companies and the U.S. economy. Period.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although it's difficult to draw</strong> a one-to-one correspondence between a decline in exports and, jobs, it is a factor.’ &nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s fair to say</strong> that we've lost about $20 billion annually in exports.’ &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s about</strong> a 100,000 or more U.S. jobs – and that’s only on the export side.’ &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When you add services</strong> and you add the dislocations from imports, it would be significantly more than that.’ &nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A hundred thousand U.S. manufacturing jobs</strong> lost out of a labor pool of 160 million or so – not a huge percentage.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But consider:</strong> In 2018 and 2019, those people who lost their jobs were able to find new jobs - that's no longer true in 2020.’ &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Therefore just revoking the tariffs</strong> would have a significant impact on employment, particularly in the agricultural States, in the manufacturing states of the Midwest.’ &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">2. Trade War, Part Two?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">"The last thing we need is more trade war."</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8XqKCe?track_p_id=1N8ZxgaM_mwR2s6gG5VbdUT" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8XqKCe?track_p_id=cEUAb3cRmCUOF8ZxgaM_v53" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trade War Fears Are Returning to a Virus-Lashed Wall Street&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg, The Guardian, FT</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The last thing we need is more trade war”:</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/trade-war-fears-are-returning-to-a-virus-lashed-wall-street?sref=UNCdSoO2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘After months fixating</strong> on complex infection curves, ambiguous corporate announcements and haywire economic data, investors risk being blindsided by an old foe:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S.-Sino tensions.’</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> and his administration have been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/pompeo-says-enormous-evidence-links-virus-to-wuhan-laboratory" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">sharpening their criticism</a>&nbsp;of Beijing, demanding answers about the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'That raises</strong> the specter of a resumption in the trade war at the worst possible time for global markets already pricing in heroic expectations of an economic rebound.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The biggest risk here</strong> is that President Trump adds geopolitical stress on top of the worst economic shock to the U.S. economy in a century,” said John Normand, JPMorgan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The wild card</strong> is that it’s an election year in America, and the incentives for Trump to take action may be higher because his approval rating has dropped amid the coronavirus crisis.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Investors should take seriously</strong> any credible reports suggesting that Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with his trailing Biden in head-to-head polls in the swing states,” Matt Gertken, BCA Research, wrote.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/01/global-markets-donald-trump-us-china-trade-war-coronavirus-covid-19" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Guardian.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reports suggested</strong> the White House is crafting renewed import tariffs that would be applied to Chinese imports in retaliation, in a major escalation of the trade standoff.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/bf249679-728c-4771-8aac-8f27f5b827e2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">FT.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “The last thing</strong> we need is more trade war,” said Kit Juckes, Société Générale.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Tariffs: "The Greatest Negotiating Tool"</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6EKAbo?track_p_id=4ERwI58pxRG_ptHdClU3c1h" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6EKAbo?track_p_id=6orM4cI58pxRG_SmvwqdACA" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Trade Deal Turns From Key Trump Asset to an Albatross&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump now finds himself boxed in.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The phase-one pact,</strong> which took effect in mid-February, is falling short on a number of fronts, including Beijing’s promises of large agriculture and energy purchases.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Trump administration</strong> so far has been hesitant to ramp up the pressure or back away from the deal altogether, even as the rhetoric on both sides heats up.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump</strong> now finds himself boxed in.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Respond too forcefully</strong> amid a growing public outcry to punish China -- with his favorite economic weapon of tariffs -- and he risks hurting consumers and businesses already facing the deepest recession since the 1930s.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a Fox News interview </strong>on Sunday night, Trump raised concerns of a resumption of economic hostilities with China, calling tariffs “the ultimate punishment” for its response to the pandemic and threatening to withdraw from the trade deal if Beijing’s purchase pledges come up short.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He called tariffs</strong> the “greatest negotiating tool” but didn’t directly answer a question on whether he’d use them now against China for the country’s failure to limit the spread of the virus.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The trade war was launched</strong> in good economic times, when additional tariffs could be absorbed,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Reimposing or expanding tariffs</strong> right now, in the midst of a global pandemic and U.S. unemployment at over 20%, would be far harder to justify economically or defend politically.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The political pressure</strong> to do something, however, is mounting within his own party.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the Republican caucus </strong>calling for China to pay a price, Trump could be&nbsp;convinced totake action before the election.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Trump will be both emboldened</strong> and compelled to take strong action against the Chinese as he realizes American voters, and in particular his political base, want accountability,” said Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">3. Holding China Accountable</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Some Really Bad Ideas</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/2Z55OnDgKtduOAFK_icVPzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/54nFpY?track_p_id=55g6T57imvEc_4STQzXmdiA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/54nFpY?track_p_id=c4fI11kdU4Oi37imvEc_4ME" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Playing the China Blame Game—Covid-19 Edition</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies (CSIS)</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bill Reinsch</strong> | CSIS</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A number of astoundingly bad ideas are flopping around on the table.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Once again,</strong> the president is demonstrating his remarkable ability to change the subject and refocus public attention.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This time,</strong> in order to get people to stop thinking about the administration’s scattershot efforts to deal with Covid-19, he is encouraging them, as usual, to blame somebody else, in this case, China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He has started a debate</strong> about how to punish China, to which members of Congress of both parties have been happy to contribute, as they jostle among themselves to see who can take the hardest line.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If that weren’t enough,</strong> the debate about what to do to China is even more depressing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A number of astoundingly bad ideas</strong> are flopping around on the table—canceling our debt to them, taking away their sovereign immunity so they can be sued for virus damage, more tariffs, and more ideas to be named later.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are specific problems </strong>with each.’</p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Canceling our debts</strong> would make us officially a deadbeat nation and call into question all our debts to other countries, which would lead to a massive unloading of treasury notes, causing interest rates to rise and sending the economy further down the drain. Fortunately, the president, who has had a lot of experience with non-payment of debt, seems to think this is a bad idea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Removing sovereign immunity,</strong> even if it could be accomplished without legislation, would lead to foreign investors pulling assets out of the country to make sure they could not be attached, and it would pose a major obstacle to new foreign investment.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More tariffs at a time</strong> when demands for removing the ones we already have are growing, make no economic sense.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beyond the specific arguments,</strong> there is the inevitability of Chinese retaliation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are long-time believers</strong> in the Newtonian principle of every action having an equal and opposite reaction, and you can be sure they will react sharply against U.S. interests in China and elsewhere.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That would further disrupt</strong> an already chaotic economic situation, not to mention torpedoing the China phase one agreement Trump has claimed as a great victory.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This may all,</strong> hopefully, come to nothing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sanity could prevail,</strong> and proposed actions that are tantamount to economic suicide will be left to die a quiet death.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is profoundly sad</strong> about this episode, however, is that rather than the better angels of our nature shining through, it seems to be bringing out the worst in us.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead of binding up</strong> the nation’s wounds, as Lincoln sought to do, we are embarking on witch hunts to find new people to blame for our plight.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That will not solve our problems,</strong> but worse, it will not distinguish us as people.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Suing China</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9BIZHc?track_p_id=bV3ceNN%406GSa7oPsIY_paLn" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/9BIZHc?track_p_id=3imr7oPsIY_HbOX5R%40dIVUH" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Can the U.S. sue China for covid-19 damages? Not really.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jessica Chen Weiss</strong> | Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Legislation to strip China’s sovereign immunity for covid-19 could backfire spectacularly.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At Monday’s White House briefing,</strong> Trump said that the United States might&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/trump-says-china-could-have-stopped-covid-19-and-suggests-us-will-seek-damages" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">seek damages</a>&nbsp;from China, stating that “There are a lot of ways you can hold them accountable.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s remarks</strong> build on recent efforts to use legal means to hold China accountable for the novel coronavirus pandemic, including proposed legislation by Republican senators from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.hawley.senate.gov/senator-hawley-announces-bill-hold-chinese-communist-party-responsible-covid-19-pandemic" rel="nofollow">Missouri</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.blackburn.senate.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/Blackburn-McSally%20Stop%20COVID%20Act.pdf" rel="nofollow">Tennessee</a>and<a href="https://www.mcsally.senate.gov/news/press-releases/mcsally-and-blackburn-to-introduce-the-stop-covid-act-to-hold-china-accountable-for-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus" rel="nofollow">&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.mcsally.senate.gov/news/press-releases/mcsally-and-blackburn-to-introduce-the-stop-covid-act-to-hold-china-accountable-for-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus" rel="nofollow">Arizona</a>&nbsp;to work around sovereign immunity — and lawsuits by Republican attorneys general in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/24/republican-coronavirus-china-xi/?tid=lk_inline_manual_2&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_2" rel="nofollow">Missouri and Mississippi</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I reached out to several experts</strong> on whether these legal efforts are likely to bear fruit, what risks they run and how China is likely to respond.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here are</strong> their views:’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_________________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Efforts to use U.S. courts </strong>to hold China accountable for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?tid=lk_inline_manual_4&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_4" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">coronavirus</a>-related harms are legally flawed and politically fraught.&nbsp;U.S. law — following international law — generally grants foreign states immunity.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Exceptions exist</strong> for commercial activities with direct effects in the United States, wrongful acts (not just harmful consequences) occurring in the United States, and state-sponsored terrorism.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But courts aren’t likely </strong>to see the accusations against China as falling within these narrow categories.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/24/republican-coronavirus-china-xi/?tid=lk_inline_manual_8&amp;itid=lk_inline_manual_8" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Proposed legislation</strong></a>&nbsp;changing the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA) to authorize suits against China over covid-19 would overcome some of these barriers, but Congress would be reprising<a href="https://nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lawfareblog.com%2Fhow-congress-could-fix-jasta-give-president-waiver-authority&amp;data=01%7C01%7Cjdelisle%40law.upenn.edu%7C00608d2ef02842bcaf4c08d7ebd6920b%7C6cf568beb84a4e319df6359907586b27%7C1&amp;sdata=YbuKnZILM2qO%2BdtwfEKAN7ZhLowOaNPGfZj9i0dXkfA%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/how-congress-could-fix-jasta-give-president-waiver-authority" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">highly controversial amendments</a>&nbsp;removing Saudi Arabia’s immunity for its role in 9/11.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Amid deteriorating U.S.-China relations,</strong> such a move risks retaliatory immunity-stripping as well as further damage to the battered U.S. reputation for respecting international law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">— Jacques deLisle,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> University of Pennsylvania</em></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_________________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Republicans in Congress </strong>have drafted at least four bills (see<a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cotton.senate.gov%2F%3Fp%3Dpress_release%26id%3D1352&amp;data=02%7C01%7Cvanessa.g.lide%40vanderbilt.edu%7Cb4201fa91f4f438a3b3a08d7ec26b5cf%7Cba5a7f39e3be4ab3b45067fa80faecad%7C0%7C1%7C637237523317778371&amp;sdata=cPTvsJZ6jTzKjrfBuR4HegdYjl27zyV6XAGux88K%2F6g%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&amp;id=1352" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>,<a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mcsally.senate.gov%2Fmcsally-blackburn-introduce-stop-covid-act-hold-china-accountable-spread-coronavirus&amp;data=02%7C01%7Cvanessa.g.lide%40vanderbilt.edu%7Cb4201fa91f4f438a3b3a08d7ec26b5cf%7Cba5a7f39e3be4ab3b45067fa80faecad%7C0%7C1%7C637237523317778371&amp;sdata=WLaq%2FVqTn9HJOf%2FuT6j855%2FNGH%2FGtrr%2Bj4xh0AmHaPE%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.mcsally.senate.gov/news/press-releases/mcsally-and-blackburn-to-introduce-the-stop-covid-act-to-hold-china-accountable-for-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>,<a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hawley.senate.gov%2Fsenator-hawley-announces-bill-hold-chinese-communist-party-responsible-covid-19-pandemic&amp;data=02%7C01%7Cvanessa.g.lide%40vanderbilt.edu%7Cb4201fa91f4f438a3b3a08d7ec26b5cf%7Cba5a7f39e3be4ab3b45067fa80faecad%7C0%7C1%7C637237523317788365&amp;sdata=BgVQ9G16psKdzyBd30s9aCCRCjdQqdIwymCgYFmm1DM%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.hawley.senate.gov/senator-hawley-announces-bill-hold-chinese-communist-party-responsible-covid-19-pandemic" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>&nbsp;and<a href="https://nam04.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fchrissmith.house.gov%2Fnews%2Fdocumentsingle.aspx%3FDocumentID%3D406644&amp;data=02%7C01%7Cvanessa.g.lide%40vanderbilt.edu%7Cb4201fa91f4f438a3b3a08d7ec26b5cf%7Cba5a7f39e3be4ab3b45067fa80faecad%7C0%7C1%7C637237523317788365&amp;sdata=uGjnaQsSK%2F1sV%2BLdSJjOHjk4KKK51G5wO255Uhv1M54%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">&nbsp;</a><a href="https://chrissmith.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=406644" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>) to enable lawsuits against China.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These measures</strong> seem spurred by a 57-page National Republican Senatorial Committee <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244" rel="nofollow">strategy memo</a>&nbsp;that urged Republicans to “<a href="https://static.politico.com/80/54/2f3219384e01833b0a0ddf95181c/corona-virus-big-book-4.17.20.pdf" rel="nofollow">attack China</a>” and portray Democrats as “weak on China.” ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Expect to see retaliatory lawsuits</strong> on U.S. covid-19 failures leading to new cases in China from those returning to China, as well as on climate change, military interventions and other issues.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> Chinese lawyers have already filed coronavirus <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-lawsuit-03262020122653.html" rel="nofollow">lawsuits</a>&nbsp;against the U.S. government.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One lawsuit alleges</strong> a U.S. government cover up, and that covid-19 originated in the U.S.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another suit seeks damages</strong> for reputational damage caused by President Trump’s use of the phrase “Chinese virus.” ’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">— Alex L. Wang,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> UCLA</em></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_________________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Legislation to strip </strong>China’s sovereign immunity for covid-19 could backfire spectacularly.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s easy to imagine</strong> that China would refuse to participate in legal proceedings if named as a defendant in a lawsuit under one of the statutes now being floated in Congress.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s what Beijing</strong> did in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/tribunal-issues-landmark-ruling-south-china-sea-arbitration" rel="nofollow">South China Sea arbitration brought</a> by the Philippines, a judgment China continues to reject with impunity [for more on this, see previous issue of the China Macro Reporter,<a href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive#nl1"> 'A Gray Swan in the South China Sea</a>'].’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But even if China didn’t show up to court,</strong> plaintiffs would still have to prove that the Chinese state “discharged a biological agent” or “deliberately concealed” the virus, according to language employed in two of the Senate bills.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That could be a steep challenge,</strong> as would any effort to enforce a favorable judgment by seizing Chinese assets in the United States.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Lacking the support of a multilateral coalition</strong> behind Congress’s pursuit of accountability through litigation, Washington could see retaliation by Beijing that won’t be subject to the same “due process” constraints that apply in U.S. courts.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">— Robert D. Williams,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> Yale Law School.</em></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_________________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government faces a dilemma:</strong>&nbsp;It can either take these lawsuits seriously and therefore politically legitimize American legal authority — or it can refuse to respond and risk losing the lawsuit in absentia on procedural grounds.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Beijing refuses to respond,</strong> some of China’s significant economic assets in the United States could be vulnerable if the lawsuits proceed [and default judgements are entered against China].’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What’s more likely</strong> is that Beijing will work to have the lawsuits dismissed — but also line up Chinese firms to sue the U.S. government in Chinese courts as a political countermeasure.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. could therefore</strong> find itself in Chinese court facing accusations of re-exporting the virus and causing economic collateral damage.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This kind of lawsuit</strong> would be just as frivolous as its American counterparts, and even more materially meaningless, when there are far fewer U.S. government-owned economic assets operating in China than there are Chinese state-owned assets operating in the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if the point</strong> is to seek retaliatory humiliation in the eyes of the Chinese public or the international community, then this could be an attractive path for Beijing to follow.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">— Taisu Zhang, </strong></em><em style="font-style: italic">Yale Law School.</em></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">4. Two Great Online Series</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6oepG4?track_p_id=5J2G4J60oUdq_dUUOiV3RGY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/YWANw2h5iokQB0zqMGUSsUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6oepG4?track_p_id=36Yc60oUdq_oSQZJA21KL6h" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Two Great Online Events on May 6</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Two events on May 6 – register now!</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">One good thing</strong> from our ‘shelter-in-place’ regime is more great China programs with leading China experts online.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here are two</strong> great series.</li></ul><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘China Law, Trade and IP 2020 Online Series’ | Berkeley Center for Law &amp; Technology</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'A series of short&nbsp;webinars</strong>&nbsp;will take deep dives on&nbsp;China’s ongoing judicial reforms,&nbsp;the real-world impacts of the Phase 1 US-China Trade Agreement,&nbsp;and current issues in the development of China’s IP law including&nbsp;patentability, pharmaceutical IP issues, trade secret issues, licensing and antitrust, Chinese IP in an international setting, and design protection.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Co-sponsored</strong> by the US-China Business Council.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The first session: ‘China: Law, Economy and Trade in 2020’</strong> was on April 22</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong> the replay <a href="http://www.kaltura.com/index.php/extwidget/preview/partner_id/1368891/uiconf_id/41443412/entry_id/0_7gy2gyi0/embed/auto?&amp;flashvars%5bstreamerType%5d=auto" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second session </strong>will be on Wednesday, May 6, 4:30pm PT: ‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">The Phase 1 Agreement and Its Implementation’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You can</strong> register <a href="https://www.law.berkeley.edu/research/bclt/bcltevents/trade-tech-china/" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More sessions</strong> in the series coming up.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘US China Series' | SupChina &amp; View from the Peak</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'A rational discussion about the future of U.S.-China relations.'</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A massive,</strong> all-day event - with 24 panels, featuring 84 top China experts on May 6, starting at 5am ET.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You can</strong> register <a href="https://events.supchina.com/u-s-china-series-a-rational-dialogue-on-the-future-of-u-s-china-relations/?referral=supchina" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">5. Extraordinary!</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Addressing the Chinese People from the White House</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/rTPywbvoPi1vmNlk8KRGRDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/76p9aC?track_p_id=4T3Uj77FTHa_t51tePRTBTx" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Gs9YNtBbh-MR4B0l44Yim0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/76p9aC?track_p_id=eKD2CqXpBzOf42L77FTHa_E" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Matt Pottinger Talks to the Chinese People</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">University of Virginia, Miller Center</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Matt Pottinger</strong> | Deputy National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world will wait for the Chinese people to furnish the answers.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On Monday, May 4 – the 101st anniversary of the May 4th Movement</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">- Matt Pottinger,</strong>&nbsp;Deputy National Security Advisor, participated in <a href="https://millercenter.org/news-events/events/us-china-relations-turbulent-time-can-rivals-cooperate" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">‘U.S.-China relations in a turbulent time: Can rivals cooperate?,’</a> an excellent 4-hour virtual event at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What made his 20-minute presentation</strong> extraordinary was that he delivered it in Mandarin from the White House – a first.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He remarks,</strong> drawing heavily on modern Chinese history, were directed at an audience in China, which, given government censorship, few Chinese likely heard.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-deputy-national-security-advisor-matt-pottinger-miller-center-university-virginia/?utm_source=miragenews&amp;utm_medium=miragenews&amp;utm_campaign=news"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>the full presentation. Here a few excepts;</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">__________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So who embodies</strong> the May Fourth spirit in China today?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To my mind,</strong> the heirs of May Fourth are civic-minded citizens who commit small acts of bravery. And sometimes big acts of bravery.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But ‘when small acts of bravery</strong> are stamped out by governments, big acts of bravery follow.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the May Fourth Movement</strong> today marks the inaugural year of its second century, what will its ultimate legacy be?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a question</strong> only the Chinese people themselves can answer.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The May Fourth Movement</strong> belongs to them.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will the movement’s democratic aspirations</strong> remain unfulfilled for another century?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will its core ideas</strong> be deleted or distorted through official censorship and disinformation?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Will its champions be slandered</strong> as “unpatriotic,” “pro-American,” “subversive”?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We know the Communist Party</strong> will do its best to make it so.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Those with the fortitude</strong> to seek and speak the truth in China today may take comfort, however, in something Lu Xun wrote:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Lies written in ink</strong> can never disguise facts written in blood.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One final thought,</strong> from a U.S. perspective:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hu Shih is naturally identified</strong> as one of the most influential leaders of the May Fourth era.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hu Shih famously</strong> preferred solving concrete problems to wallowing in abstract political theory.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But let me break his rule</strong> against discussing “isms” to ask whether China today would benefit from a little less nationalism and a little more populism.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democratic populism</strong> is less about left versus right than top versus bottom.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s about reminding</strong> a few that they need the consent of many to govern. When a privileged few grow too remote and self-interested, populism is what pulls them back or pitches them overboard.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has a kinetic energy.</strong> It fueled the Brexit vote of 2015 and President Trump’s election in 2016.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It moved the founder of your university</strong> to pen a declaration of independence in 1776.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is an admonition</strong> to the powerful of this country to remember who they’re supposed to work for: America first.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Wasn’t a similar idea</strong> beating in the heart of the May Fourth Movement, too?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Weren’t Hu Shih’s language reforms</strong> a declaration of war against aristocratic pretension?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Weren’t they a broadside</strong> against the Confucian power structure that enforced conformity over free thought?’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Wasn’t the goal to achieve</strong> citizen-centric government in China, and not replace one regime-centric model with another one?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The world will wait</strong> for the Chinese people to furnish the answers.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">'Our national tragedies will be far from over.’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/bA99WV-EJZc_bRQvtKeDDjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6WUUvw?track_p_id=4aEAI5ThTV0_atX3H5tBuoR" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Y4jiW8U4aV7BOoCqlgB6h0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6WUUvw?track_p_id=6gtuean5ThTV0_1vtbHVucx" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Not De-globalisation -  De-Sinicisation.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Heritage</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Zi Zhongyun 資中筠</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">former head of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Geremie R. Barmé</strong>, translator | China Heritage</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘At&nbsp;the moment the trend isn’t de-globalisation as much as global&nbsp;de-Sinicisation.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Perhaps at age 89 Mme Zi</strong> has little to fear.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I say that because her essay</strong> – which you should read in its entirety, along with translator long &amp; excellent intro – presents a China that would no doubt not make it past the censors.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The intro &amp; translation</strong> are just the latest in the excellent and important series of Chinese and Western essays presented by China Heritage, an undertaking that is more important now than ever.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I encourage you</strong> to take the time to browse the <a href="http://chinaheritage.net/" rel="nofollow">China Heritage</a> site to add insightful, dissenting Chinese perspectives to your understanding of China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_________________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most significant difference</strong> between the unfolding crisis at present and that of the past is that, this time around, foreign invaders did not unleash the disaster that is sweeping over us.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Quite the opposite:</strong> now we are an exporter nation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past,</strong> the self-isolating self-quarantined Qing Empire was forced to open up by the aggressions of the Western trading powers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We, however,</strong> have been celebrating China’s Open Door for over four decades now and we have enjoyed boundless benefits from it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet, today,</strong> we may well be forced to retreat back into ourselves.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past,</strong> we wanted to expel the Foreign Devils.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nowadays</strong> they are packing up and leaving in droves of their own accord; to persuade them to stay will be a downright challenge.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Overnight,</strong> it is as though we are finding ourselves facing threats from every quarter.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There’s a great line,</strong> although sadly it’s not of my invention, that goes: ‘At&nbsp;the moment the trend isn’t de-globalisation as much as global&nbsp;<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-Sinicization" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">de-Sinicisation</strong></a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is the true crisis</strong> confronting our 1.4 billion compatriots.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some forty years ago</strong> China enjoyed a fresh start when it opened the door and established an equitable relationship with America at what was to be a new phase in the relationship.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other developed nations</strong> joined in one after another and, over the years, China has reaped inestimable benefits from melding itself with the global system.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> that’s why it enjoys the prosperity evident everywhere in our country today.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> it goes without saying that all of the countries that have engaged with China have also enjoyed the benefits.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now things</strong> have been moving in reverse.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given the way things</strong> have been going in China this country is set upon making enemies for itself in all directions.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is impossible</strong> from here to appraise meaningfully what is going on on the other side of the Pacific Ocean.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here in China,</strong> however, I can say without a doubt that as long as Boxer-like activities are given the official stamp of approval as being ‘patriotic’, as a long as generation after generation of our fellow Chinese are educated and inculcated with a Boxer-like [virulent anti-Western] mentality, it will be impossible for China to take its place among the modern civilised nations of the world.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> our national tragedies will be far from over.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center; overflow:hidden"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><div><link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Merriweather:wght@900&amp;display=swap" rel="stylesheet"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></td><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;color: #001544; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:center;"><a style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: -0.5px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:35px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>May 1, 2020</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:7px 0; font-size: 1.175em; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; letter-spacing: -0.5px; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8GsYCG?track_p_id=3bda5QVCAg_Ernj3hSRGOMO" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8GsYCG?track_p_id=7EYluaAV5QVCAg_caNp33ly" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A Gray Swan in the South China Sea</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I remember how surprised</strong> when I heard someone call the pandemic a ‘black swan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">According to Nassim Taleb, </strong>who coined the term, a ‘black swan’ is ‘unpredictable.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That a pandemic</strong> would at some time hit was certainly predictable – and predicted.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I reasoned</strong> that the pandemic as more like a ‘gray swan,’ predictable but not really expected. And I found that others had thought of that before me.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regarding China,</strong> three ‘gray swans’ stand out: Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Hong Kong.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">No doubt if one erupts and disrupts</strong> financial markets, Asia, or the world, shocked politicians, as the pandemic did, then businesspeople, and financiers, will likely say they never saw it coming; it was a ‘black swan.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More like</strong> they weren’t paying attention.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Take a crisis</strong> between Taiwan and China, and maybe the United States.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That would</strong> be no black swan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here’s a quiz </strong>[and a cheat sheet]<strong style="font-weight: bold"> - Identify the decade when each of the following statements was made about Taiwan:</strong></p><ol style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In view of these facts,</strong> and the categorical and daily renewed proclamations by the Communists of their intent to take both the offshore islands and Taiwan itself, there is more than ample opportunity for the inadvertent misstep, the hot defense or hot pursuit, the major conflict.’ 1955</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Peking has reportedly rejected</strong> Washington's proposals for a joint renunciation of force with respect to Taiwan, [and] …various arrangements for the neutralization of the offshore islands and the stabilization of the Taiwan Straits.’ 1966</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The defense of Taiwan</strong> remains at the heart of the issue of China.’&nbsp;1971</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Taiwan Province</strong> is China's sacred territory. We are determined to liberate Taiwan. When and how is entirely China's internal affair, which brooks no foreign interference whatsoever." 1977</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If in the future Beijing</strong> offers conditions of reunification which the people of Taiwan can accept, so be it. U.S. interests are best served by a peaceful reunification.’&nbsp;1980</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China regards its sovereignty </strong>over Taiwan as a matter of principle and refuses to renounce the right to use force against a part of it own territory. Taiwan asserts another common principle: the right of self-determination.’ 1996</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though the Taiwan Strait </strong>is one of the few places in the world where U.S. forces may be drawn into a major conflict at a moment's notice, Washington has refrained from actively helping to ease tensions or to facilitate a resolution of the dispute.’ 2001</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">“China must be, and will be reunified,” Chinese President Xi Jinping&nbsp;<a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2019-01/02/c_1123937757.htm" rel="nofollow">declared in</a> a speech in January. Xi spoke of “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, but he warned, “We do not forsake the use of force.”&nbsp;2019</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has increased</strong> the frequency of its military exercises in recent weeks to prod and harass Taiwan’s defense forces.’&nbsp;2020</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the quotes come</strong> from a quick perusal of articles in <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And they illustrate</strong> how long this Gray Swan has perched in the Taiwan Strait.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The same quiz</strong> could be given for tensions in the South China Sea, albeit with at later starting date in the 1970s.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And for issues with Hong Kong,</strong> which in one form or another, has been around since the 1840s. Beijing’s tightening its grip and the people of Hong Kong resisting is just a fairly recent iteration.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because Gray Swans</strong> are predictable but unlikely, we are aware of them but keep them tucked away until there is a reason to consider them as a possibly imminent threat.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the pandemic</strong> has now made these three – Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Hong Kong – more likely and more worthy of attention.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">While the Trump administration</strong> is consumed with the coronavirus, China is seizing the moment for strategic advantage,' writes Paul Haenle of the Carnegie Endowment [see #3, below].</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the South China Sea,</strong> China has pushed forward with the development of its artificial islands and continues to intimidate and bully competing claimants.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Mike Kafka,</strong> spokesman for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-trump-facing-virus-crisis-u-s-warns-rivals-not-to-seek-advantage-11587385652" rel="nofollow">told the</a>&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">Wall Street Journal</em>, “Beijing is a net beneficiary of global attention diverted towards the pandemic rather than military activities in the South China Sea.” ’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Events in the Taiwan Strait</strong> have been equally worrisome.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This suggests that Beijing</strong> was taking advantage of U.S. weakness to intimidate Taiwan with little pushback.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Hong Kong, the government</strong> has intensified its crackdown on pro-democracy protestors while much of the world is distracted.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Beijing may have seen </strong>a similar opportunity to take action in Hong Kong, as it did not expect a forceful response from a Washington hampered with the coronavirus.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In all these situations,</strong> China has miscalculated.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S. and its allies</strong> are not so distracted that they are not opposing China in each arena.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And that leads, </strong>as the writer in 1955 warned, to ‘more than ample opportunity for the inadvertent misstep, the hot defense or hot pursuit, the major conflict.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A gray swan event.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today’s issue covers</strong> in detail the situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hong Kong</strong> is still developing and a little early to say much about.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We have a terrific interview with Bonnie Glaser </strong>of the Center on Strategic &amp; International a few of these actions.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regarding the South China Sea:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China considers</strong> the South China sea to be a core interest.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have seen</strong> over the last few years that China is pursuing its objective of gaining control over activities in the South China sea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In most instances,</strong> the Chinese are relying on paramilitary forces and maritime militia really to advance their administrative control and to prevent other countries - other claimants in the region – from developing new oil and gas sources.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The countries</strong> that are really the targets are the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When any of these countries</strong> has tried to survey for oil or drill for oil, China has very quickly responded and intimidated them from doing so.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regarding Taiwan</strong> Bonnie says:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ever since President Tsai Ing-wen</strong> was reelected in Taiwan in January, we have seen Beijing ramp up pressure on Taiwan both diplomatically and militarily.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. military</strong> is mindful of the fact that the PLA might see that its preparedness is not quite what it usually is, given the large number of infections that we've seen in the U.S. military.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And there has been</strong> some signaling going on to the PLA to not take advantage of this situation and not miscalculate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I do not believe</strong> that China is going to seize this opportunity to invade Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The risks to China remain quite high,</strong> and there is no guarantee that the PLA will succeed.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If you just look at</strong> the military balance between China and Taiwan, there is no doubt that China has military superiority.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it's very hard</strong> to take over an island - that's of course what most of Taiwan is.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But even if the Chinese</strong> were able to land on the beach and somehow establish control, what would it take to control the entire island? Would there be an insurgency?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The young people</strong> in Taiwan have grown up in a free society (which of course has only existed since really around 1990).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think that maybe people</strong> – young and old - would fight in order to preserve it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And I'm of the view</strong> that - given the trajectory of American attitudes towards China, and if Taiwan continues to elect leaders, like its current president, who are unprovocative and are just trying to preserve the status quo and Taiwan's autonomy - it is very likely that the U.S. government, Congress, and &nbsp;American people would support intervention on Taiwan's behalf if China attacked.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong> ‘That is my fervent hope.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Following Bonnie’s comments</strong> is more from Paul Haenle on how China is taking advantage of U.S. distraction from the pandemic and how the U.S. continues to stand up to China’s moves.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today’s ‘A Look Back’</strong> features three of the essays highlighted in the quiz.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">These make even clearer</strong> how the question of Formosa, as Taiwan was called when I was growing up, has been key to U.S. policy and concerns in Asia for a long time.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Lots to cover.</strong></p><h2 style="display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MY SUGGESTION:</strong> Just browse through and focus on the posts your most interested in.</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> what you think. And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">1. ‘Naming the Swan’</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5FaJt2?track_p_id=4IW6S4h2g4E_n2g3bnYwUcQ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/esNV34VVN6CimWNICkweIUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5FaJt2?track_p_id=aHgWna%40Ai3L4h2g4E_So5Ep" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Black Swan, Gray Swan</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The pandemic</strong> wasn't a black swan,</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;And a devastating crisis</strong> erupting in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea or Hong Kong wouldn't be either.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All are</strong> highly predicable, if unlikely (well, maybe not in Hong Kong).</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With China's actions</strong> in each arena, taking advantage of the U.S. and the world's pandemic distraction, these gray swans have gotten a lot grayer.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_____________________________</p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Black Swan</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A black swan</strong> is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'it is</strong> unpredictable;'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'it carries</strong> a massive impact; and,'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'after the fact,</strong> we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nassim Taleb,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> from his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable</em></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Grey Swan</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'A grey swan</strong> is a highly probable event with three principal characteristics:'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'it is</strong> predictable;'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'it carries an impact</strong> that can easily cascade; and,'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'after the fact,</strong> we concoct an explanation that recognizes the probability of occurrence but shifts the focus to errors in judgment or some other human form of causation.'</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Geary Sikich,</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"> Logical Management Systems, Corp.</em></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">2. The Interview: Bonnie Glaser</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/2ucGPE1sHEb-J2HO1wp1kDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">SOUTH CHINA SEA</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/0gUAAqMZhJFD5XwZQ_E3rTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QbM36?track_p_id=5snHlT6dYAjW_m3MeyB%40ZWb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QbM36?track_p_id=3dQN6dYAjW_t%40HabgNstmcf" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1. SOUTH CHINA SEA: China's Claims </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser |</strong> Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'It would not be accurate to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For more on China's claims,</strong> read the 501- page ruling, <a href="https://pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/2086">'IN THE MATTER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARBITRATION.'</a></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘How do the Chinese</strong> justify their claims in the South China Sea?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The Chinese</strong> have never really made clear - I would say they are deliberately ambiguous - about what their claims are.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So it would not be accurate</strong> to say China claims the entire South China Sea as its sovereign territory because the Chinese are unclear about what exactly their claim is and what it is based on.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'And that applies </strong>to the Nine-Dash-Line (above) that China uses to assert sovereignty.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese have said the South China Sea</strong> is historically theirs, based on their discovery of the islands, their naming of the islands, they're using of the islands.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese have asserted</strong> that because they were there first, that they have rights to fish or rights to energy, regardless where those take place in the South China sea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Philippines</strong> brought a suit against China disputing its claims.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And a July 2016 ruling</strong> by an arbitral tribunal, formed under the Convention on the Law of the Sea, found in favor of the Philippines; China rejected the ruling.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Among other things,</strong> the tribunal found.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘that China's “Nine-Dash Line”</strong> is invalid.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘that historic rights</strong> - in this particular instance in the Spratlys - is not the basis for a legal claim.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘that China’s assertion</strong> of a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone around these land features because they were islands is invalid.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'So, the most China</strong> can claim now is in accordance with this ruling, even though it rejected it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese</strong> are trying to come up with a claim of 12 nautical miles of exclusive territorial sea around the islands - not a blatant violation.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> challenges even these claims by sailing inside and through them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/sH-z2mfK_KfQ61JbZun_Ejl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">from the <a href="https://amti.csis.org/" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">ASIA MARITIME TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE</a>, CSIS</p></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89kveS?track_p_id=2kA88IbU6_uLXgyhXGWuXNY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/89kveS?track_p_id=csigV6TrTefTk88IbU6_Arh" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2. SOUTH CHINA SEA: China's Energy Intimidation </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser |</strong> Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When any of these countries has tried to survey for oil or drill for oil, China has very quickly responded and intimidated them from doing so.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘What is China’s position</strong> on oil &amp; gas exploration and drilling in the South China Sea?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China considers</strong> the South China sea to be a core interest.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have seen</strong> over the last few years that China is pursuing its objective of gaining control over activities in the South China sea.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In most instances,</strong> the Chinese are relying on paramilitary forces and maritime militia really to advance their administrative control and to prevent other countries - other claimants in the region – from developing new oil and gas sources.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The countries</strong> that are really the targets are the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When any of these countries</strong> has tried to survey for oil or drill for oil, China has very quickly responded and intimidated them from doing so.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is really to signal</strong> that China is no longer going to tolerate anything other than joint development.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If a country wants</strong> to survey for oil or drill, it's going to have to do so jointly with a state-run Chinese company.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘How does China</strong> intimidate these countries?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Well, for example,</strong> in the last just a couple of months we’ve yet another episode of China's intimidation taking place off the coast of Malaysia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here’s</strong> what is happening.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In December,</strong> a Malaysian state-run energy company contracted a vessel to explore two areas in the South China Sea, off the Malaysian coast, where has an extended continental shelf claim.‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is in an area</strong> that is claimed not only by Malaysia but also by China and Vietnam. Both China of those countries sent ships.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese sent a survey ship,</strong> the Hai Yang Di Zhi&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">8</em>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This ship</strong> is well-known.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> it was operating last year off the coast of Vietnam, surveying inside of Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, because China was angry about drilling operations that were going on off the coast of Vanguard Bank.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> has sent two Navy ships over the past week to these waters near Malaysia.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is a report</strong> that these ships are operating within 50 nautical miles of the Malaysian ship that's there.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> doesn't take a position on sovereignty in the South China sea in any of these sovereignty disputes – other than supporting the arbitral tribunal’s ruling in favor of the Philippines again China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this is a rare moment</strong> where the United States has signaled that it is concerned about Chinese bullying.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We saw once in 2014,</strong> the United States had sent a reconnaissance plane, a PA to overfly Second Thomas Shoal when the Chinese were intimidating the Philippines.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">was a very far</strong> over a land feature, not a Navy ship close by.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">TAIWAN</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=2gm8qoKJq_CB1diUpkXVuoY" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/y4610Onrkt4OZXDm0RRInUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=aaAs5etsCZF8qoKJq_mIbaJ" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1. TAIWAN: China Ramps Up Intimidation</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser</strong> | Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Ever since President Tsai Ing-wen was reelected in Taiwan in January, we have seen Beijing ramp up pressure on Taiwan both diplomatically and militarily.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘What are you seeing</strong> in Taiwan cross-strait relations these days?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser: </strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ever since President Tsai Ing-wen</strong> was reelected in Taiwan in January, we have seen Beijing ramp up pressure on Taiwan both diplomatically and militarily.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the diplomatic side, Taiwan</strong> has done a pretty good job of combating COVID-19 and has done so with technology and without shutting down schools or businesses – and is using this to promote itself.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That has led Beijing</strong> to be quite concerned about international support for Taiwan to rejoin the World Health Assembly, where it used to be an observer, and about international support expanding more broadly.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Within China,</strong> I expect the government is blocking information about Taiwan success - it doesn’t want people in China to see that a Chinese-organized society and democratic polity like Taiwan has been successful.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the military side,</strong> we are seeing a lot more Chinese military exercises against Taiwan.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘New things,</strong> like the first ever 36-hour endurance nighttime exercise held by the PLA air force.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And large numbers of Chinese aircraft</strong> are crossing the centerline in the Taiwan Strait.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All in all,</strong> a much higher volume and tempo of activities than we had seen prior to the election. ‘</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=6ZBQyvf8qoKJq_GggGPdZKl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=5HyeEn8qoKJq_coReG4XiNf" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2. TAIWAN: Is Now the Time for China to Invade?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser</strong> | Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I do not believe that China is going to seize U.S. distraction from the pandemic to invade Taiwan.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘With the United States</strong> and the world distracted by the pandemic, do you see a potential for China to take advantage of to ramp up intimidation on Taiwan or even invade?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The U.S. military</strong> is mindful of the fact that the PLA might see that its preparedness is not quite what it usually is, given the large number of infections that we've seen in the U.S. military.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And there has been</strong> some signaling going on to the PLA to not take advantage of this situation and not miscalculate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One example:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">There have been two U.S. Navy transits</strong> through the Taiwan Strait already this month [April] - usually they're held once a month.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has made these public – in contrast, the Obama administration did not.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We also saw</strong> the B-52 bomber flights after some of the rather provocative Chinese military exercises that were taking place earlier this month.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I do not believe</strong> that China is going to seize this opportunity to invade Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The risks to China remain quite high,</strong> and there is no guarantee that the PLA will succeed.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Also Xi Jinping</strong> is consumed with domestic challenges.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That said,</strong> I do think that China sees an opportunity to intimidate Taiwan more now - which is what they are doing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We also see examples</strong> of this in Hong Kong and in the South China Sea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So China’s bullying and intimidation</strong> are not limited to Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=bJ33clHUzPFf8qoKJq_C3jK" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=8uWi3GKDG8qoKJq_Tp3jUAh" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">3. TAIWAN: Could China Conquer Taiwan?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser</strong> | Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'It's very hard to take over an island - that's of course what Taiwan is.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘It was conventional wisdom</strong> for a great deal of my life, but China didn't possess the capabilities even if it had the will to retake Taiwan. What do you think now?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘If you just look at</strong> the military balance between China and Taiwan, there is no doubt that China has military superiority.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it's very hard</strong> to take over an island - that's of course what most of Taiwan is.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The largest island China</strong> could seize is Jinmen or Matsu. It might go after Taiping Island, which is the one land feature that Taiwan occupies in the South China Sea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But taking over the island of Taiwan itself</strong> would be difficult for China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are making progress</strong> but are still lagging behind in some capabilities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In amphibious landing capabilities</strong> they're definitely catching up - for a while it wasn't a PLA priority, but now it is.’ &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China would be able to prevent Taiwan</strong> from dominating the airspace - it can probably take out Taiwan's fighter fleet. But if Taiwan continues to build its capabilities, for example, in numbers of surface-to-air missiles, it could prevent China from gaining that military superiority in the airspace.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China as good anti-submarine warfare</strong> capabilities, which would be against the United States, but also Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But even if the Chinese</strong> were able to land on the beach and somehow establish control, what would it take to control the entire island? Would there be an insurgency?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Maybe we need to draw</strong> some lessons from the protests in Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The young people in Hong Kong</strong> are willing to stand up for their freedom. They've been willing to fight in the streets.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some people think </strong>that the young people in Taiwan would not. I'm not so sure.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The young people</strong> in Taiwan have grown up in a free society (which of course has only existed since really around 1990).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I think that maybe people</strong> – young and old - would fight in order to preserve it.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=5cH3nJ8qoKJq_QImcH5eMhb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/KEVi4ItTGjLdtgIVoh4vvki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6JkERE?track_p_id=853TvesXI8qoKJq_Mf22UcG" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">4. TAIWAN: Will the U.S. Defend Taiwan?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser</strong> | Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is my fervent hope.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm Riddell:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘If China did invade Taiwan,</strong> what would the U.S. do?’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie Glaser:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘There are several factors</strong> that that might precipitate a U.S. intervention.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we'd have to consider</strong> how this conflict started.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If it were unprovoked</strong> and the Chinese just out of the blue decided we're impatient, we want to take over Taiwan, now is the time.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yes, I think that the United States</strong> would come to Taiwan.’ &nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It becomes a little bit more complicated</strong> if Taiwan has taken an action that provoked Beijing - perhaps an action that the United States even discouraged Taiwan from taking.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The other factor</strong> is the American public's attitudes towards China - we don't know if Americans would really support the us coming to the defense of Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past,</strong> public opinion polls have not shown that a vast majority of Americans would support it.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But today,</strong> we can look at the most recent poll this week showing that 66% of Americans now have a negative view of China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, maybe</strong> that is to some extent specific to the COVID-19 So we'll have to see if that holds.’ &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The strongest advocate</strong> of coming to Taiwan's defense is going to be the U.S. Congress.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And</strong> they matter.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So I'm of the view</strong> that - given the trajectory of American attitudes towards China, and if Taiwan continues to elect leaders, like its current president, who are unprovocative and are just trying to preserve the status quo and Taiwan's autonomy - it is very likely that the U.S. government, Congress, and &nbsp;American people would support intervention on Taiwan's behalf if China attacked.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘That is my fervent hope.’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">3. China Makes Its Move</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/57qkam?track_p_id=5YRRY%4095CMyU_y4yWmGch1J" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/G9EK0hBp39apwSTnloaxVUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/57qkam?track_p_id=3GKt95CMyU_Oc54MekecW1N" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1. The COVID-19 Window: China Seizing Strategic Opportunities</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Carnegie Endowment</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Paul Haenle</strong> | Carnegie Endowment</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the Trump administration is consumed with the coronavirus, China are seizing the moment for strategic advantage.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Prior to the breakout of COVID-19,</strong> there was already an elevated likelihood of regional crisis, whether from an inadvertent collision in the South China Sea or an incident in the Taiwan Strait.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese military officers</strong> have been taking riskier actions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps they are learning</strong> from their diplomatic counterparts that assertive stances can earn fast promotions in a system that “rewards toughness [and] leaves the moderates to die out in [the] cold,” as Carnegie-Tsinghua scholar Tong Zhao has&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/zhaot2005/status/1241723618993659907" rel="nofollow">argued</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent incidents</strong> in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and Hong Kong have ratcheted up regional security tensions at a time when the United States and its allies are least able to respond.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The surge in military activity</strong> has highlighted the potential for an inadvertent collision or confrontation that could spiral into a larger crisis.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is too early to predict</strong> what the U.S.-China relationship will look like once COVID-19 subsides.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the interim,</strong> it is clear that Beijing will pursue its previously established policies while seizing strategic opportunities presented by the diminished capabilities of the United States and other significant players in the Asia-Pacific.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perceptions in Washington</strong> that Beijing has exploited a crisis for its benefit will only sow further distrust.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/9VNHbzCjQtrdviKSWXcYdzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;">China's Liaoning aircraft carrier</h1></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8CNzea?track_p_id=6vdP4mK6JXj70_Qfe2TRE4U" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/G9EK0hBp39apwSTnloaxVUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8CNzea?track_p_id=7%40AnecAf6JXj70_33rAuz4Z" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2. Where Has China Been Most Active In Recent Weeks?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Carnegie Endowment</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Paul Haenle</strong> | Carnegie Endowment</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. officials are concerned that China is trying to take advantage of the crisis to further its strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the South China Sea,</strong> China has pushed forward with the development of its artificial islands and continues to intimidate and bully competing claimants.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Events in the Taiwan Strait</strong> have been equally worrisome.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite a pause in military activity</strong> early on in the coronavirus outbreak, China has increased the frequency of its military exercises in recent weeks to prod and harass Taiwan’s defense forces.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On April 11,</strong> a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3079546/taiwan-scrambles-warships-pla-navy-aircraft-carrier-strike" rel="nofollow">flotilla of People’s Liberation Navy vessels</a>, including the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, passed through the Miyako Strait—roughly 200 miles from the northernmost tip of Taiwan—on its way to conduct exercises in the South China Sea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In February and March,</strong> Beijing also&nbsp;<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/chinas-worrying-military-exercises-near-taiwan/" rel="nofollow">conducted a</a> number of fighter, bomber, and reconnaissance exercises that either crossed the midline of the Taiwan Strait or came dangerously close to Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Taiwanese, Japanese, and U.S. militaries</strong> were quick to respond by sailing their own warships through the strait and conducting reconnaissance flights.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Hong Kong, the government</strong> has intensified its crackdown on pro-democracy protestors while much of the world is distracted.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite subdued protests in recent months, </strong>the government has begun to prepare for renewed unrest as the coronavirus subsides, recently&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/asia/hong-kong-arrests.html" rel="nofollow">arresting fifteen</a> prominent protestors.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The arrests came just days</strong> after the two Chinese representative offices in Hong Kong&nbsp;<a href="https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/china-prods-hong-kong-enact-national-security-law" rel="nofollow">admonished</a> pro-democracy figures in the legislature for filibustering the passage of new bills—an action some observers view as violating Beijing’s commitment under Article 22 of the special administrative region’s Basic Law not to interfere in Hong Kong’s political system.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The new head of Beijing’s liaison office</strong> in Hong Kong stoked further fears with a statement that called on the city to enact a national security law that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/china-prods-hong-kong-enact-national-security-law" rel="nofollow">prevents</a> “treason, secession, sedition, [and] subversion” against the Chinese government.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States, the United Kingdom, Australia</strong> and other countries have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/us-and-uk-condemn-arrest-of-hong-kong-democracy-activists" rel="nofollow">condemned the arrests and</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/labor-joins-us-uk-in-condemning-hong-kong-arrests-of-democracy-advocates-20200419-p54l61.html" rel="nofollow">urged Beijing’s adherence</a>&nbsp;to the “one country, two systems” policy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8S4Kae?track_p_id=4kYJM6m8XPy_zvE4qzMfgDZ" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/G9EK0hBp39apwSTnloaxVUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8S4Kae?track_p_id=4TVPv6m8XPy_VHXaaFZElEO" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">3.&nbsp;‘Why Is China Taking Action Now?’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Carnegie Endowment</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Paul Haenle</strong> | Carnegie Endowment</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is also seizing the opportunity presented by other countries’ reduced military operational capacities and inattention to regional hotspots, especially on the part of the United States.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China aims</strong> to project strength and stability abroad while other nations struggle to cope with the virus.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/china-claims-zero-infections-its-military" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold">reported zero</strong></a> infections in its armed forces, a widely uncredited statistic likely touted to suggest unimpeded military capabilities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the&nbsp;</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Morning Post</strong></em> recently&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3079898/pla-flexes-military-muscle-near-taiwan-show-covid-19-control" rel="nofollow">reported</a>, “The Liaoning’s appearance near Taiwan was not only a demonstration of military deterrence to the independence-leaning ruling party in Taiwan, but also a gesture to show off the [People’s Liberation Army]’s greater ability to contain the coronavirus pandemic than its American counterpart.” ’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This message mirrors</strong> the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/world/asia/coronavirus-china-narrative.html" rel="nofollow">narrative promulgated</a> by China’s foreign ministry and diplomats: China was able to quickly curb the virus’s domestic spread and is now taking on a global leadership role.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is also seizing the opportunity</strong> presented by other countries’ reduced military operational capacities and inattention to regional hotspots, especially on the part of the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The transit of the Liaoning,</strong> for example, occurred while two U.S. aircraft carriers were beset by onboard outbreaks of COVID-19, the disease caused the coronavirus.’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The USS Ronald Reagan</strong> was in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/831266852/with-warship-coronavirus-cases-rising-concerns-over-military-readiness" rel="nofollow">Japan for</a> regular maintenance and the USS Theodore Roosevelt was put in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/831266852/with-warship-coronavirus-cases-rising-concerns-over-military-readiness" rel="nofollow">port</a>&nbsp;in Guam after its captain was controversially relieved from duty following his plea for greater assistance.'</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This suggests that Beijing</strong> was taking advantage of U.S. weakness to intimidate Taiwan with little pushback.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Mike Kafka,</strong> spokesman for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-trump-facing-virus-crisis-u-s-warns-rivals-not-to-seek-advantage-11587385652" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">told</a>&nbsp;the&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">Wall Street Journal</em>, “Beijing is a net beneficiary of global attention diverted towards the pandemic rather than military activities in the South China Sea.” ’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing may have seen </strong>a similar opportunity to take action in Hong Kong, as it did not expect a forceful response from a Washington hampered with the coronavirus.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington, however, has been quick</strong> to react in other ways, including an April 13 “elephant walk” in which a large number of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/15/elephant-walk-guam-serves-timely-us-airpower-demonstration-defense-expert-says.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">U.S. aircraft were paraded</a>&nbsp;in Guam to signal the strength of U.S. military capabilities despite the temporarily inoperable carriers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More recently,</strong> the United States&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/world/asia/coronavirus-south-china-sea-warships.html" rel="nofollow">sent an</a> amphibious assault ship and guided missile cruiser into waters near Malaysia, where a Chinese ship has been tracking a Malaysian oil exploration vessel.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'While the Trump administration</strong> is consumed with the coronavirus, China is seizing the moment for strategic advantage.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; display:block; padding:10px; background-color:#c80000; font-size: 1.375em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.35em; border-bottom:2px solid #f6f6f6;">3. A Look Back at Crises in the Taiwan Strait</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">China's 'Monroe Doctrine'</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/tohQz1mZfr-Z1PB6VV2KFDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5puyXI?track_p_id=3OTa58NcKs_KZKYhx1VsjM1" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5puyXI?track_p_id=23C58NcKs_nkJ2OEZG42jKz" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1955: 'A Fresh Look at Free Asia'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong><a href="https://getpocket.com/edit?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foreignaffairs.com%2Farticles%2Fasia%2F1954-10-01%2Ffresh-look-free-asia?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=pocket_cta&amp;utm_campaign=cta_share_buttons" rel="nofollow"><strong style="font-weight: bold"><br></strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chester Bowles</strong> | former Ambassador to India                  </h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Asia were once properly sealed off from Western influence, China would be in a position to step up her demands on her weaker neighbors.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A major objective</strong> of present Chinese policy is to establish a "Monroe Doctrine" of her own.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would not only</strong> break existing ties between the Western democracies and the free nations of South and Southeast Asia but eventually would exclude the West from all of Asia including Japan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Asia were once properly sealed off</strong> from Western influence, China would be in a position to step up her demands on her weaker neighbors, firmly assert her political and military leadership throughout Asia, and ultimately establish complete control from the Arabian Sea to Alaska.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">Follow the Fleet</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f6f6f6; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/GVGqfa3D2BmeVTX8o_fc6Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/685IrQ?track_p_id=1X57FDoc_viXb3fM6jev2j%40" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/685IrQ?track_p_id=eKjQCYhpLPO635B57FDoc_r" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1955: 'United States Foreign Policy and Formosa'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Arthur Dean</strong> | Special United States Ambassador to Korea; partner, Sullivan and Cromwell</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘…there is more than ample opportunity for the inadvertent misstep, the hot defense or hot pursuit, the major conflict.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">FORMOSA - symbol of the struggle</strong> between freedom and Communism in the Orient--poses a test of how far United States foreign policy can combine the ideals of freedom with the flexible realism required by the harsh facts of world politics.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the attack</strong> upon Korea in 1950, President Truman ordered the Seventh Fleet to patrol the strait between the mainland and Formosa.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That zone </strong>was "neutralized." ’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 1953,</strong> the United States announced that it would "unleash" Nationalist China and permit attacks from Formosa upon the mainland.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The fleet,</strong> however, was to continue President Truman's policy of preventing Red China from attacking Nationalist-held territory.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Seventh Fleet and the U.S. Air Force</strong> are patrolling the Formosa straits; and the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu are included among the probably "related positions and territories . . . now in friendly hands" which the President has authority, with the support of Congress, to secure and protect.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In view of these facts,</strong> and the categorical and daily renewed proclamations by the Communists of their intent to take both the offshore islands and Formosa itself, there is more than ample opportunity for the inadvertent misstep, the hot defense or hot pursuit, the major conflict.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; background-color:#001544; line-height:1"><tbody><tr><td style="width:25px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;height: 13px;background-color: #c80000;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td><td style="display:block; padding:5px 5px 5px 12px; text-align:left; font-size: 1.1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; font-style: italic; color:#ffffff; font-weight:bold; letter-spacing: 0px; line-height:1.5em;">A Dangerous U.S. Strategy</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/4RHsdkOp9kQGhotTICIq-Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 3% 3.5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QFdBY?track_p_id=3ALM8ArGhi_uINFbBemtNdy" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6QFdBY?track_p_id=cVatNOPyUPv4P8ArGhi_GCT" style="color:#001544; font-size:1.3em; font-weight:bold; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2001: 'Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kurt M. Campbell and Derek J. Mitchell </strong>&nbsp;</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.15em;margin-top: 1em;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Taiwan Strait is one of the few places in the world where U.S. forces may be drawn into a major conflict at a moment's notice.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the last 50 years,</strong> the Taiwan Strait has been the site of an almost ritualistic pattern of military conflict.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The ROC-controlled islands of Quemoy and Matsu,</strong> for example, were the scene of a tense Cold War standoff during the 1950s.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beginning later that decade</strong> and continuing for two more decades, the PRC regularly shelled these islands according to an announced schedule.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After a brief thaw</strong> in relations during the 1980s and early 1990s, the Taiwan Strait has been remilitarized over the past five years.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The PRC has dusted off war plans</strong> previously left on the shelf.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan has also purchased</strong> a wide array of advanced defensive weapons, largely from the United States, which is currently its only reliable provider of military assistance.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though the Taiwan Strait </strong>is one of the few places in the world where U.S. forces may be drawn into a major conflict at a moment's notice, Washington has refrained from actively helping to ease tensions or to facilitate a resolution of the dispute.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This state of affairs strikes</strong> many in the security community as particularly curious, if not dangerous.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. policy</strong> toward the Taiwan Strait has often been described as one of "strategic ambiguity." ’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many observers</strong> fear that the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity has been profoundly misinterpreted by both sides:’                      <ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan believes</strong> that in the end, the United States would support its independence,’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘whereas the PRC</strong> believes that the United States would stand aside if the bullets ever started to fly.’</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Misapprehensions</strong> of this sort can make ambiguity an ultimately dangerous strategy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although a general consensus</strong> supports both engagement of the PRC and commitment to the security of Taiwan, Washington is becoming increasingly divided into two camps:’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘those who see China</strong> as the next major market for the United States, and’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘those who see China</strong> as the next major threat to the United States.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whereas Mao and Deng Xiaoping</strong> were willing to wait 50 to 100 years for Taiwan's integration, today's PRC regime [that of Jiang Zemin] expresses a growing sense of impatience.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #fff;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5% 0 3.5% 3.5%"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/malcolmriddell/" target="_blank" title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color:#001544; font-weight:700; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1.15em; border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;">Malcolm Riddell 大宝 — your editor</a></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align:top; padding:2% 3.5%"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/malcolmriddell/" target="_blank" title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;"><img width="80" style="border-radius:5%; border:1px solid #ddd; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e50856bfd13de839671f2be_MR%202020.png" alt="Malcolm_Riddell"></a></td><td style="vertical-align:top; padding-left:7%; padding-right:5px; font-size: 1em;line-height: 1.825em;letter-spacing: -0.1px; font-family:'gordita',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; color: #001544;">As investment banker, diplomat, lawyer, Harvard academic, and CIA spy, I have participated in China affairs for more than 40 years.                                </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top; padding-right:3.5%; font-size: 1em; letter-spacing: -0.1px; font-family:'gordita',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; color: #001544; text-align:right;"><a href="mailto:malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com" target="_blank" title="Malcolm_Riddell" style="color:#001544; border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;"><span style="line-height:1.75">✉️</span><span style="padding-left:5px;">malcolm.riddell@riddell-tseng.com</span></a></td></tr><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background:#fff;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr><tr><td style="height:10px; font-size:0; background:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; color:#001544; font-weight:700; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 1.15em; border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;">CHINADebate                        </td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align:top; padding:2% 3.5%"><a href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank" title="CHINADebate" style="border-bottom:none; text-decoration:none;"><img width="80" style="border-radius:5%; border:1px solid #ddd; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d0d4bb287c46a75c78e8d21_Title.jpg" alt="CHINADebate"></a></td><td style="vertical-align:top; padding-left:7%; padding-right:2%; font-size: 1em;line-height: 1.825em;letter-spacing: -0.1px; font-family:'gordita',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; color: #001544;">CHINADebate presents the best thinking from top China experts around the world — meetings, interviews, webasts, and newsletters. Founded by Malcolm Riddell in 2012.                                </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="height:20px; font-size:0; background:#fff;">&nbsp;                        </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:40px; font-size:0; background-color:#f6f6f6;">&nbsp;                </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table>

‘Wall Street will be the next US-China battleground’
August 1, 2019
1. TRADE TALKS
2. BEYOND THE TRADE WAR
3. HONG KONG
4. GEO-POLITICS
5. ECONOMY
6. ONLINE BANKING
7. MANUFACTURING LEAVING CHINA
8. CHINESE INVESTMENT IN THE U.S.
‘China’s continuing drag on the global economy’
June 27, 2019
1. ‘The Value of Global China’: McKinsey
2. China's Maritime Militias in the ‘Gray Zone’
3. ‘The Failures of the “Failure of Engagement” with China’
4. Hardline trade minister joins China’s negotiating team
5. ‘The Continuing Chinese Drag on the Global Economy’
‘Does China rule the Fortune 500?’
July 24, 2019
1. ‘Who Likes Facebook's Libra Currency? Not the Chinese.’
2. ‘Does China rule the Fortune 500?’ Pro & Con
3. ‘China's Private Firms Continue to Struggle’: Nick Lardy
4. ‘Does China’s “Invisible Hand” Steer Funds to State-Owned Firms?’
5. ‘Party Loyalty in China Helps Private Companies Get Cheaper Loans’
6. 'Why the United States doesn’t need to return to a gentler China policy'
'China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas'
July 20, 2019
1. Trade war fallout not crushing China’s economy: Stephen Roach
2. ‘Trump tries to woo Federal Reserve in China trade fight’
3. ‘China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas’
4. ‘U.S.-China Trade: If We Get to Yes, Will It Make Any Difference?’
5. ‘Who Actually Pays Tariffs?’
6. ‘Is China Weakening the Yuan to Fight U.S. Tariffs?’
7. ‘China’s Exchange Rate Policy Woes’
China’s slowing economy not caused by trade war
July 17, 2019
1. China’s slowing economy not caused by trade war
2. China’s economy doing better than latest numbers
3. ‘China’s global business footprint shrinks’: China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT)
4. China: ‘The Art of Wait and See’
5. Why China Still Needs Hong Kong
‘U.S.-China Positions Have Hardened’
July 13, 2019
1. ‘U.S.-China Positions Have Hardened’
2. Impact of tariffs on business decisions: Richmond Fed President
3. ‘China tariffs: We can do better’
4. “Who Knew Trump Would Offer A Truce With Xi?”: The Mystery Of The Wall Street Trump Trades
5. ‘Trump’s tariff claims are demonstrably false. Here’s why.’
6. 'Is the China model a threat?'
‘How China Failed to Fail’
July 10, 2019
1. ‘Graphic Truth: China Since Tiananmen’
2. Secretary Pompeo’s two-prong China strategy
3. ‘The Fed Is Trump’s Secret Ally in the Trade War’
4. ‘Should China help secure the Strait of Hormuz?’
5. ‘Why I’ve Lost Faith in China’s Private Sector’: Shuli Ren, Bloomberg
6. ‘How China Failed to Fail: Can China’s Glass Remain Both Half Full and Half Empty?’
'China Is Not An Enemy'
July 6, 2019
1. ‘China is not an enemy’
2. Alipay & WeChat: China’s retail payment revolution
3. Can Facebook’s Libra replicate WeChat Pay’s digital payment dominance?
4. 'Hong Kong Has Nothing Left to Lose'
Trade war: 'Wet US-China firecracker at G20’
July 3, 2019
1. ‘What the US and China each got out of the Trump-Xi meeting in Japan.’
2. ‘Wet US-China firecracker at G20’: Derek Scissors
3. ‘Trump's “brilliant stroke” with China's Xi a win for US’: Michael Pillsbury
4. ‘The Chinese move only to the extent that it suits their domestic economic agenda.’: Kevin Rudd
5. Peter Navarro on the trade war cease fire and Huawei
6. ‘The big takeaway from this meeting is that you have a ceasefire.’: Michael Hirson, Eurasia Group
7. ‘Trump hasn’t reversed his position on Huawei’: Michael Pillsbury
8. From the World Economic Forum in Dalian China
At the G20, 'Xi still believes he has the upper hand'
June 29, 2019
1. G-20 leaders face a toxic trifecta of political instability, trade tensions and slowing global growth
2. Trump & Xi at the G20: the context
3. Trade War: Xi Still Believes He Has the Upper Hand
Xi's 'Self-reliance' - Why Blacklisting Huawei Could Backfire
June 26, 2019
1. Xi Jinping’s Trade Conundrum: Why the Chinese Leader Isn’t About to Back Down
2. Why Blacklisting Huawei Could Backfire
3. BACKGROUNDER | Huawei: China’s Controversial Tech Giant
4. Mao Redux: The Enduring Relevance of Self-reliance in China
Roubini on the U.S.-China trade war, the impact on the global economy, and the stakes at the coming G20
June 22, 2019
1. Roubini – ‘Dr. Doom’ - on the U.S.-China trade war
2. ‘The Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War’
3. The Coming Sino-American Bust-Up
4. The Growing Risk of a 2020 Recession and Crisis
'Trump Has Gotten China to Lower Its Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Else.'
June 19, 2019
1. ‘America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire’: Robert Kaplan, Eurasia Group
2. 'Trump Has Gotten China to Lower Its Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Else.'
3. ‘Services are ½ of the value-added in global trade- we just don’t see them or count them.’: David Dollar, Brookings
4. HK Protests: ‘An analysis of events’ by Nuri Vattachi + a response from a noted Greater China expert
Hong Kong Protests: 'If China doesn't back down, the U.S. will make it pay dearly.'
June 15, 2019
1. ‘People v power: The rule of law in Hong Kong’: The Economist
2. What is the proposed law that the protesters oppose?
3. ‘Plugging a loophole?’
4. ‘Hong Kong’s proposed extradition law puts ties with America at risk’: The Economist
5. ‘China Is Courting Disaster in Hong Kong’: Minxin Pei
6. CONGRESS | ‘The reaction that really matters is in Washington, D.C.’: The Economist
7. CONGRESS | Actions by the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC)
8. PRESIDENT TRUMP | ‘So I hope it all works out for China and for Hong Kong.’
9. PRO | ‘There Are Huge Misconceptions About Extradition Bill.’: Ronnie Tong
10. CON | ‘My take on Hong Kong's extradition bill’: Jerry Cohen
11. CON | ‘A convenient legal tool to grab individuals deemed to be “enemies” of the Chinese state’: Minxin Pei
12. CON | President Xi Needs to tell Carrie Lam ‘no amendment now’ : Michael Pillsbury
'Not another downturn in U.S.-China relations: a paradigm shift'
June 12, 2019
1. ‘China’s rise would have eroded any hegemon’s unrivaled power, no matter how skillful its diplomacy’: Fareed Zakaria
2. ‘Not another downturn in U.S.-China relations: a paradigm shift’: Jim McGregor
3. ‘China had America right where it wanted it - and they overreached’: Jim McGregor
4. ‘China's Private Firms Continue to Struggle’: Nick Lardy
5. ‘Why is China so interested in building and buying ports?’: Deborah Bräutigam
'The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths.’ Deng Xiaoping
June 7, 2019
1. The trade war is paralyzing business decision making.
2. Impact of tariffs on U.S. businesses in China: AmCham China chairman
3. ‘The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths.’ Deng Xiaoping
4. Trade war: How lawyers vs economists as negotiators lead to the breakdown in talks
5. A primer on how Chinese law might enforce a US-China trade deal
6. Impact of tariffs on U.S. businesses in China: AmCham survey
The 30-year detour: The path from Tiananmen to Xi Jinping
June 4, 2019
1. ‘Tiananmen divides PRC history into before and after’
2. The 30-year detour: The path from Tiananmen to Xi Jinping
3. ‘The Party has relied on brute force since its inception’
4. Tiananmen: Reporting from ABC World News Tonight 1989
5. ‘Assignment: China - Tiananmen Square’
6. The story behind the ‘Tank Man’ photo
Peter Navarro talks tariffs on CNBC
June 1, 2019
1. Peter Navarro talks tariffs on CNBC 💣
2. Navarro : ‘The producers in Mexico and China pay for this. Here's how it works. A tariff goes on that puts pressure on the Chinese or the Mexican producers to lower their prices – otherwise they can't sell.’
3. Navarro : ‘Corporate executives are recognizing that the supply chain is better off in other places in the globe or better yet bring that here.’
4. Navarro : ‘So these people who say that somehow American consumer is going to pay for this - that's simply not true.’
5. Navarro : ‘We’ve had tariffs on dishwashers and solar panels - half of Chinese exports to this country - steel and aluminum and we see virtually no inflation.' — DISHWASHERS & SOLAR PANELS
6. Navarro : ‘We’ve had tariffs on dishwashers and solar panels - half of Chinese exports to this country - steel and aluminum. And we see virtually no inflation.’ — STEEL
‘How China Sees Trump’s Trade War’
May 29, 2019
1 ‘How China Sees Trump’s Trade War’: Victor Shih
2. Nick Lardy on the trade war, fixing capital allocations, & why China’s GDP numbers are right
3. ‘Death by China’ & Peter Navarro
Why the West is getting Xi wrong
May 22, 2019
1. How the West is getting China wrong
2. Now China's Got Its Own Anti-U.S. Trade War Song
3. ‘Trade tensions will persist until global financial imbalances are addressed’
4. ‘Five Big Myths of China's Belt and Road Initiative.’
5. Trump's 2019 Protection Could Push China Back to Smoot-Hawley Tariff Levels
6. More from Bill Overholt
Trade talks breakdown: How the U.S. misunderstands Chinese negotiating style
May 18, 2019
1. Tracing Trump's Aggressive Tariff Strategy Back to the 1980s
2. Tom Friedman explains why he agrees with Trump's China aims but not his means
3. Trade talks breakdown: How the U.S. misunderstands Chinese negotiating style
4. Trade War Won’t Dent China’s GDP
5. Comments on the U.S.-China trade war from PIIE president Adam Posen
6. China’s response: a stable or a weakened Yuan?
Sharpening the US-China trade debate
May 15, 2019
1. It's Trump vs. Xi in the China trade war — and it's personal
2. 'Reaching an agreement can only be done at the top.’
3. Sharpening the US-China trade debate
4. FACE OFF: Brookings vs. American Enterprise Institute
5. Trade war: Is the U.S. panicking due to China’s big hedge?
6. ‘The Chinese don't get this concept “earn” their way out of punitive tariffs’: Michael Pillsbury
'Trump was right to call China's bluff in the trade talks'
May 10, 2019
1. As China Trade Talks Stall, Xi Faces a Dilemma: Fold? Or Double Down?
2. 'Trump was right to call China's bluff in the trade talks': Bill Bishop
3. The US-China trade war is poised to enter the next phase
4. Tariffs on China are no substitute for a trade deal
5. China can earn its way out of Trump’s tariffs
6. Xi Jinping Wanted Global Dominance. He Overshot
7. Trade War Results in Substantial Losses for U.S.
8. Trump Could Raise Tariffs on China. Here’s How China Could Respond.
9. A year of trade losses in the U.S.-China tariff war.....—AEI
Will Trump's ‘Crazy Uncle’ strategy work this time?
May 8, 2019
1. 'Expect the president to move forward with tariffs this Friday.": Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group
2. Will Trump's ‘Crazy Uncle’ strategy work this time?
3. New tariffs could cost China 1% GDP: Tao Wang, UBS
4. 'Why Trump Is Raising Tariffs on China' - by Trump advisor Michael Pillsbury
5. Trump's Tariff Threat on Rest of Chinese Goods Would Hit Final Consumer Product
China Never Stopped Managing its Trade
May 4, 2019
1. China Never Stopped Managing its Trade
2. A dash of stimulus helps stabilize China’s wobbly economy
3. 'May 4th Movement': Happy 100th anniversary
4. 'How the Communist Party seized the legacy of May Fourth'
Xi's Belt and Road Reboot
May 1, 2019
1. Xi Jinping's Second Belt and Road Forum: Three Key Takeaways
2. Brooking's David Dollar on praise and criticism of Belt and Road Initiative
3. Three ways of looking at the Belt and Road Initiative
4. A Slimmer Belt and Road Is Even Scarier
5. Expert Insights | 'China&rsquo;s Belt And Road: The New Geopolitics Of Global Infrastructure Development'
6. Director's Summary | 'China&rsquo;s Belt And Road: The New Geopolitics Of Global Infrastructure Development'
7. QUIZ: How much do you know about the Belt and Road Initiative?
8. 'Durian "Little Thai" takes us on a journey along the Belt and Road'
'The State Has Dragged Down China’s Economic Growth'
April 27, 2019
1. 'The State Has Dragged Down China’s Economic Growth': Nick Lardy
2. U.S.-China trade talks: How Trump’s latest Iran sanctions decision could impact a deal
3. In US-China Trade Disputes, the WTO Usually Sides with the United States
4. Trump and the WTO: From trashing to crippling
5. 'China Growth Outlook': Credit Suisse
6. Caixin PMI has become a leading indicator of global momentum
5G: 'The US. is winning a race that no one else is running'
April 24, 2019
1. 5G: 'The U.S. is winning a race that no one else is running'
2. Department of Defense: The obstacle to U.S. winning 5G
3. China in the report
In China, Party Control Trumps the Economy
April 20, 2019
1. China's economy back on track - Not so fast
2. In China, political control trumps the economy
3. JUST OUT | 2019 OECD Economic Survey of China
4. Why the calculations that led to the trade war are wrong
'Only Trump can save China'
April 17, 2019
1. Five things to watch for in China’s new GDP data
2. 'Only Trump can save China'
3. ‘China’s land prices deserve as much attention as European industrial production or U.S. retail sales’
4 'Trump’s Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem'
Europe's 'new realism' at the 'EU-China Summit'
April 13, 2019
1. 'EU-China Summit': China faces a tougher Europe
2. Europe's 'new realism' at the 'EU-China Summit'
3. China's strategy for the EU
4. The EU's (possible) strategies toward China
5. VIDEO | The Heat: China-EU summit
Trade war: 'U.S. policy has changed because China has changed'
April 10, 2019
1. Trump & Kim Hangin' in Hanoi
2. Trade war: 'U.S. policy has changed because China has changed'
3. China’s leaders should study James Bond films
4. The best explanation of Xi's view on China's private sector – beat it into submission
5. Heads Up | Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer – terrific!
6. April 2019 Trade Bulletin
'Why China market reforms haven't worked'
April 6, 2019
1. 'We're going from an unregulated trade war with China to a regulated one.’
2. Why China's market reform isn't working
3. All is well in China's intelligence service
4. 'China's GDP could start to grow again in 5-10 years': Prof Xu Bin, CEIBS
5. Starbucks opens a new store in China every 15 hours
'China is the world’s best consumer story'
April 3, 2019
1. 'China stimulus tracker: A one-year report card' | Development Bank of Singapore (DBS)
2. 'China is the world’s best consumer story' | McKinsey
3. When will China GDP > U.S GDP?: '2030 is not a bad estimate - but so is never.'
4. Xi and Trump Miss Their Chance
An unmistakable first-quarter recovery' for China's economy
March 30, 2019
1. 'An unmistakable first-quarter recovery' for China's economy
2. China’s Bond Market Comes of Age—Sort of
3. 'The Future of China's Bond Market'
4. 'The president has taught me that tariffs have an important use in trade negotiations': Larry Kudlow
5. 'A prolonged period of radical uncertainty' - 'a major source is the Sino-American trade war': Michael Spence
'Xi visits a divided EU with charm and deals'
March 27, 2019
1. Mueller report give U.S. more clout in trade negotiations
2. 'The time of European naïveté towards China had ended': Macron
3. Xi in Europe: How China is outmaneuvering Trump on trade
4. 'The Belt and Road Initiative Impact on Europe: An Italian Perspective'
'Two Sessions' End
March 23, 2019
1. 'Foreign Investment Law': the level playing field
2. 'Foreign Investment Law': 'Tech transfer in China is no longer the main concern'
3. Yi Gang: 'China has deleveraged' | Michael Pettis: 'No. Debt has gone up'
4. 'China can't create growth- or jobs - out of tax cuts'
5. 'The manufacturing sector, mired in a crisis of confidence, needs more than this tax cut.'
6. With Streaks of Gray Hair, Xi Jinping of China Breaks With Tradition
7. Another insight from 'The Relevant Organs'
'Two Sessions' II
March 13, 2019
1. China's increased State role is reason