China Macro Reporter
9/19/2021
AUKUS: A New World Order?
In case you passed over the news of AUKUS, the new strategic alliance among the U.S, the U.K., and Australia, here a few headlines to encourage a deeper look.
AUKUS: A New World Order?
In case you passed over the news of AUKUS, the new strategic alliance among the U.S, the U.K., and Australia, here a few headlines to encourage a deeper look.
9/19/2021
Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.
Today's issue is a heads up on what may be Xi Jinping's efforts to reshape Chinese society.
9/7/2021
The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?
Breaking through the blow-by-blow reporting that started when the Taliban began its sweep to victory are the geopolitical analyses of who gains and who loses in Afghanistan.
8/28/2021
'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'
As I write this, Taliban forces have entered Kabul and are reportedly occupying the Presidential Palace.
8/15/2021
'China Signals More Regulation for Businesses in Coming Years'
‘The State Council’s statement provides a guiding context to interpret current regulatory thrusts. The blueprint as an attempt by Chinese authorities to help investors understand the motives behind the regulatory push.’
8/15/2021
'Xi’s Dictatorship Threatens the Chinese State'
‘Mr. Xi is determined to bring the creators of wealth under the control of the one-party state.’
8/15/2021
8/15/2021
Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You
‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
8/5/2021
‘Global investors shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
8/5/2021
'Shocked Investors Scour Xi’s Old Speeches to Find Next Target'
‘While China’s policy moves can feel ad hoc particularly to foreign investors, the changes are quite targeted on certain sectors.’
8/5/2021
'China Wants Manufacturing—Not the Internet—to Lead the Economy'
‘Social media, e-commerce and other consumer internet companies are nice to have. But in his view national greatness doesn’t depend on having the world’s finest group chats or ride-sharing.’
8/5/2021
China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders, and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook,’ writes Reuters’ Tom Westbrook.
8/1/2021
'Why China Is Cracking Down on Its Technology Giants'
‘Why, you may ask, is China crushing some of its most innovative unicorns? We’re in a new era led by President Xi Jinping, and politics are in command.’
8/1/2021
'Xi's Four Pillars of Regulation'
‘Broadly, Beijing is concerned about four pillars of stability: banking, anti-trust regulation, data security and social equality. All of Beijing’s major interventions reflect these concerns.’
8/1/2021
'Stock Market: China Doesn’t Care How Much Money Investors Lose'
‘Does Beijing not care how much money foreign investors have lost? Does the government really want to close China Inc.’s access to the deep pool of global capital? The short answer is, no, the government doesn’t care.
8/1/2021
'The most significant philosophical shift since Deng'
‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook. According to some analysts, it is the most significant philosophical shift since former leader Deng Xiaoping set development as the ultimate priority 40 years ago.’
8/1/2021
1 | 'Middle Class Shanghai: Reshaping U.S.-China Engagement' by Cheng Li
‘Among the many forces shaping China's domestic transformation and its role on the world stage, none may prove more significant than the rapid emergence and explosive growth of the Chinese middle-class.’
7/25/2021
How China's Middle-Class China is Transforming China and the World
‘Among the many forces shaping China's domestic transformation and its role on the world stage, none may prove more significant than the rapid emergence and explosive growth of the Chinese middle-class.’
7/25/2021
2 | ‘My Humble Effort’
‘My book, Middle Class Shanghai, is a humble effort to provide a different angle, based the cultural and the educational fronts, from the perspective of shared middle-class lifestyles, aspirations, concerns, and values.’
7/25/2021
3 | The ‘Haipai’ - ‘Jingpai’ Divide
‘Just as New York and Washington are profoundly different from each other, the same can be said about Shanghai and Beijing.’
7/25/2021
4 | The Shanghai Paradoxes
‘Middle-Class Shanghai actually reveals China's unsettled future because Shanghai embodies what I call two tales of a city. Now in my view, Shanghai was, is, and will be paradoxical.’
7/25/2021
5 | 'It is premature to say that engagement has failed.'
‘It is premature to conclude that the U.S. engagement policy with China under the eight presidents prior to the Trump administration has failed.’
7/25/2021
Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'
‘ “Variable interest entities”(VIEs): The problem with this is that it sort of sounds like you’re kidding. But this is a standard method for mainland Chinese internet companies to go public, and the market has come to accept it.’
7/22/2021
Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)
‘The prospectus has a diagram, above, of the corporate structure, which looks almost normal. But everything below the double arrow — the actual ride-hailing business, etc. — is slightly askew.’
7/22/2021
Part 3 | Revising the Rules
‘The Chinese government could declare “all these VIE contracts are actually a disguised form of foreign ownership, which is not allowed by the rules, so they are all void and your Didi and Alibaba shares are worthless.” ’
7/22/2021
China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks
I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
7/22/2021
'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'
‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
7/22/2021
7/22/2021
'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'
‘China plans to exempt companies going public in Hong Kong from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, removing one hurdle for businesses that list in the Asian financial hub instead of the U.S.’
7/18/2021
'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'
‘The pretense of Chinese and Hong Kong authorities is that their crackdown on the rule of law and dissent will have no effect on Hong Kong’s viability as an international center for trade and finance.’
7/18/2021
Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China
During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
7/18/2021
Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling
‘The United States’ inability to make China regret—much less reverse—its transgressions in Hong Kong suggests that financial separation, sanctions, and economic barriers are less reliable tools than many in Washington believe.’
7/18/2021
'I will aim for Mao's Status.'
‘There on the gate was Xi Jinping, Chinese president and party general secretary, in a gray Mao suit. Just below his feet was the portrait of Mao Zedong, also dressed in a gray Mao suit.’
7/18/2021
'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'
“In the face of Beijing’s decisions over the past year that have stifled the democratic aspirations of people in Hong Kong, we are taking action,” said Antony Blinken, US secretary of state. “Today we send a clear message that the US resolutely stands with Hong Kongers.”
7/18/2021
The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents
President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
7/15/2021
'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
7/15/2021
Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America
‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
7/15/2021
Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'
‘Biden’s emerging China strategy, while still protean, sounds of a kind with Mr Doshi’s prescription for “blunting and building”.’
7/15/2021
Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again
Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
7/8/2021
The Chinese Point of View
Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
7/4/2021
'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'
‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’
7/4/2021
'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'
‘China has managed to sustain four decades of economic growth despite levels of corruption that even Xi has described as “grave” and “shocking.” Why does it seem to have bucked the trend?’
7/4/2021
Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading
As the Chinese Communist Party begins its second century, it’s useful to identify enduring patterns that might aid us in understanding China today and the directions it might be heading.
7/1/2021
From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich
‘In our discussions, you've identified five themes that have been more or less consistent throughout the history of the party but have oscillated between different points on a continuum:’
7/1/2021
'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100
‘At so many points during its century-long existence, the CCP appeared to be in its death throes, whether as a result of external attack or self-inflicted internal strife.’
7/1/2021
European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'
A mere 9% of European companies are considering moving any current or planned investment out of China, the lowest level on record. Instead, companies are strengthening their positions in JVs, onshoring supply chains and increasing spending to secure market share. The ambition not only to stay but also to expand their China footprint is more than justcapital flooding in due to optimism about growth. Companies are taking action to secure their operations in China and mitigate exposure to geopolitical trends in order to have a better chance of navigating a future that looks to be fraught with risk, at least in the near- to medium-term.
6/27/2021
'How China & America Should Compete'
‘China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.’
6/27/2021
'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'
Jimmy Lai’s tabloid, the Apple Daily, with its peculiar blend of scandal, gossip, and serious political reporting, was Hong Kong’s indispensable voice of free speech. Now that voice has been silenced, and Lai is in prison with others who tried to protect the right of Hong Kong’s citizens to speak and write freely, to be ruled by law, and to vote for their own autonomous government. Their politics are diverse Yet they stand together. When freedom is under siege, people cannot afford the narcissism of small differences that is tearing apart liberal politics in countries where people think democracy can be taken for granted.
6/27/2021
'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'
‘Instead of leaving the market, European companies are exploring ways to separate their China operations from their global ones.’ ‘Following the Covid-19 outbreak, European companies in China spent the first few months of 2020 solemnly appraising their investment strategies.’
6/27/2021
'Congress on China: Then and Now'
‘With the Senate voting on June 8, 2021, to adopt the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act, it is safe to say that this is the most comprehensive action by Congress on China policy EVER.’ ‘The language of the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act is about a long-term competition with China as opposed to war with an enemy.’
6/24/2021
'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'
‘Freedom of the press is a good thing. The West's freedom of speech must be consistent with national interests and public security.’
6/24/2021
The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong
Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
6/24/2021
'Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper folds under government pressure'
Apple Daily was much more than a newspaper. To its fans, it was a defender of freedoms. To its foes, it was the defiler of national sovereignty.’
6/24/2021
'China steps up crackdown on bitcoin mining industry'
‘China’s latest intervention places further pressure on what was once one of the world’s most vibrant markets for trading and mining digital currencies.’ ‘It comes at a time when many governments are scrutinising the industry’s effect on the environment and determining the types of financial oversight that should be applied to cryptocurrencies.’
6/24/2021
Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'
“Bitcoin alone consumes as much electricity as a medium-sized European country.”
6/24/2021
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
6/20/2021
Part 1 | ‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
6/20/2021
Part 2 | ‘Myth 1: Economics and Democracy Are Two Sides of the Same Coin'
‘The truth, then, is that China is not an authoritarian state seeking to become more liberal but an authoritarian state seeking to become more successful—politically as well as economically.’
6/20/2021
Part 3 | ‘Myth 2: Authoritarian Political Systems Can’t Be Legitimate’
‘A Marxist-Leninist system is concerned not only with economic outcomes but also with gaining and maintaining control over the system itself.’ ‘That has huge implications for people seeking to do business in China.’
6/20/2021
Part 4 | ‘Myth 3: The Chinese Live, Work, and Invest Like Westerners’
‘For much of its turbulent modern history, China has been under threat from foreign powers, both within Asia (notably Japan) and outside it (the UK and France in the mid 19th century).’ ‘China’s rulers, therefore, see foreign engagement as a source less of opportunity than of threat, uncertainty, and even humiliation.’
6/20/2021
'Meet the New Chinese Economy, Same as the Old Chinese Economy'
If a recovery led by investment in real estate and industrial production, with consumption lagging behind, sounds familiar, it may be because the same could be said of the makeup of China’s growth before Covid-19.’
6/17/2021
'Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point'
‘The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.’
6/17/2021
Part 1 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
‘Beijing is moving swiftly to protect its factories and workplaces from rising costs.’ ‘Still, rising prices in China, by far the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, could be felt around the world.’
6/17/2021
Part 2 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'
“Is China exporting inflation? In renminbi terms, it’s not so obvious. But in U.S. dollar terms, it starts to get more sizable.” ’
6/17/2021
Bernie Sanders: 'Don’t Start a New Cold War With China'
‘The pendulum of conventional wisdom in Washington has now swung from being far too optimistic about the opportunities presented by unfettered trade with China to being far too hawkish about the threats posed by the richer, stronger, more authoritarian China that has been one result of that increased trade.’
6/17/2021
'Forget about China': Clyde Prestowitz
Clyde Prestowitz has influenced U.S. foreign trade and investment policy for many decades, both inside and outside government.
6/13/2021
'NATO & China's Challenges to Europe'
‘Even though China does not pose a direct military threat to NATO, contrary to Russia or terrorist groups, Beijing’s growing economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness in Europe coupled with its growing military relationship with Russia do have major implications for the transatlantic economy as well as its security.’
6/9/2021
Biden Worries China Might Win
‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
6/9/2021
Joe Biden: 'My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies'
‘This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world?’
6/9/2021
'Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win'
‘Biden worries that China is in competition for America, and not only that—they might win. This belief underpins the Biden doctrine.’
6/9/2021
'From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening democratic cooperation for today's challenges'
‘A “Democratic-10” or “D-10” is aimed at rallying the world’s most powerful democracies around a common cause— advancing a rules-based democratic order based on shared values and common interests.’
6/9/2021
1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'
‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
6/3/2021
2 | Blame It on Xi
‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
6/3/2021
3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’
‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
6/3/2021
4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy
‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
6/3/2021
5 | Two Caveats
‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
6/3/2021
6 | The Risks & the Dangers
‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
6/3/2021
Killing China's Grand Strategy
Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
6/3/2021
Postscript: China Doubts U.S. Allies Support
'Chinese leadership is also cynical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led Cold War-style bloc.’
5/30/2021
China's ‘Anti-Hegemonist Bloc’
‘To counter U.S. coalition building, China has enhanced its diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with both Russia and Iran in recent months, resulting in the closest ties these countries have had in the post-Cold War era.’
5/30/2021
What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy
And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
5/30/2021
'Final Thoughts'
'Just as Brzezinski foresaw the two new contending blocs –– requiring greater “geostrategic skill” –– that are forming today, Kissinger has emphasized the unprecedented dangers that AI could introduce into a divided world.’
5/30/2021
Worse for China than Trump
‘Many Chinese now believe that the Biden administration could be more detrimental to U.S.-China relations than the Trump administration.’
5/30/2021
The Trump Legacy
‘From Beijing’s perspective, the hawkish approach to China in the final year of the Trump administration revealed that the Trump team sought to defeat and destroy China in much the same way that the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.’
5/30/2021
'Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?'
‘Senior officials on the foreign policy team have frequently emphasized three “C” words: competition, cooperation, and confrontation.’
5/30/2021
Biden’s ‘Anti-China Bloc’
‘Throughout President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, his administration has largely continued the Trump administration’s hawkish approach toward China.’ ‘President Biden has also made international coalition building to confront the growing power and influence of China his primary foreign policy initiative.’ ‘Chinese leaders and the public are not convinced by the statements recently made by President Biden that these U.S.-led alliances are “not anti-Chinese” and that the United States is “not looking for confrontation” with China.’
5/30/2021
'Sex and the Chinese Economy'
‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
5/27/2021
'Demography + Technology is Destiny'
The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
5/27/2021
'China: Births Falling'
‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
5/27/2021
'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'
‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
5/27/2021
'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'
‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
5/27/2021
'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'
‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
5/27/2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
5/27/2021
‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’
‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
5/20/2021
'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'
‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
5/20/2021
'Apple in China: No Plan B'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
5/20/2021
'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'
“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
5/20/2021
Apple in China
‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
5/20/2021
'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'
"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
5/20/2021
After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World
A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
5/15/2021
