<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%"><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -2px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 30, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5g8jg0?track_p_id=c5Ow1LsA33kxY73vC8c_XEx" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5g8jg0?track_p_id=4KoxV73vC8c_cth4AvvuqIE" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">“As long as we have money, we can buy him."</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .6em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I guess you could see</strong> the efforts of Pan-democracy protesters as sort of a Rocky story – underdog defeats superior opponent. And last week the protesters got their symbol.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump</strong> last week tweeted a photo of himself as Rocky – lighting up the internet with some well-deserved jibes.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In Hong Kong,</strong> though, after President Trump signed Congress’ bill supporting Pan-democracy in Hong Kong, Hong Kongers celebrated in the streets waving copies of Trump/Rocky.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">No irony there.</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also last week,</strong> the NY Fed published a study showing that, contrary to President Trump’s claims, dollar prices of Chinese goods entering the U.S. have not fallen much.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">U.S. firms and consumers</strong> are paying the tariff tax.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">An issue</strong> that we are following closely is the Chinese pork crisis.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The potential</strong> for that shortage to cause unrest arising from everything from skyrocketing pork prices to Chinese just not being able to get their favorite meat is a persistent concern for the Chinese government.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The need to import U.S. pork</strong> is one of China’s motivations for the Phase One deal. That’s why a Bloomberg report creates doubt about what if anything China can do to fully meet Chinese demand– the takeway:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">'There isn’t enough pork</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">in the whole world</strong> to make up for the millions of animals China is slaughtering to try to halt the contagion.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China Hopes Trump Will Be Reelected’</strong> by Anna Fifield, WAPO Beijing Bureau Chief, is more disturbing than other such analyses we’ve covered for two reasons.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">First, it starkly lays out</strong> the Chinese attitude to the President’s transactional bent:&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“As long as we have money, </strong>we can buy him. That’s the reason why we prefer him to Democrats,” says a Beijing insider.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Second,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">it likewise starkly lays</strong> out the President’s limited foreign policy agenda:&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang,</strong> the free and open Indo-Pacific, all of these are issues that President Trump does not typically address."&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"If I’m correct in my assumption</strong> that he doesn’t care about these issues, because he never talks about them, then he will be more willing to just trade them out in discussions with the Chinese,” says CFR’s Elizabeth Economy.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The pro-Beijing stance</strong> on the Hong Kong issue is well-presented by controversial former Hong Kong Chief Executive C.Y. Leung:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It’s extremely senseless</strong> and irresponsible for political figures in Hong Kong and outside Hong Kong to think that somehow by bringing hundreds of thousands of people into the streets of Hong Kong, somehow China’s hand could be forced.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">C.Y., whom I’ve known for years</strong> and never would have expected would become Chief Executive, made his comments at the Foreign Correspondents Club in Hong Kong. So it is worth noting that, as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/former-hong-kong-leader-says-protests-won-t-force-china-s-hand" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Bloomberg</a> reports:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leung --&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2018-08-13/pro-china-protesters-target-hong-kong-s-top-journalists-club" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">alongside</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> China’s foreign ministry</strong> -- previously&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2018-08-13/pro-china-protesters-target-hong-kong-s-top-journalists-club" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">criticized</a>&nbsp;the FCC for hosting a talk by independence activist Andy Chan, whose Hong Kong National Party has been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/hong-kong-bans-pro-independence-party-in-unprecedented-decision" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">banned</a>&nbsp;by the city’s government.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Following that event,</strong> the club’s acting president, Financial Times journalist Victor Mallet, was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/hong-kong-media-demand-reason-behind-journalist-s-visa-rejection" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">refused a</a> visa renewal.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Much more below.</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think.</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And be sure to </strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">forward</strong></span> the <em style="font-style: italic">China Macro Reporter</em> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5yJ408?track_p_id=6%40%40xTJ260Z3RG_e5dUsV3Gr" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/7vyRU9pYn0JLcN2bgS2BUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5yJ408?track_p_id=d3Ccgh2dt3ibFv60Z3RG_GT" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Who Pays the Tax on Imports from China? -Liberty Street Economics</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Liberty Street Economics</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Federal Reserve Bank of New York</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Chinese firms have not used the change in exchange rates to regain some of the competiveness lost from tariffs by lowering their prices in dollar terms.’</strong></h2><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .6em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/americans-pay-trumps-tariffs-another-independent-study-finds-trade-war-2019-11-1028716053" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Claim by</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump:</strong></span></a></h1><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"China is paying us</strong> tremendous — and they're paying for it," Trump said at a Cabinet meeting last week.'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Those tariffs</strong> are not paid by us."&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Those tariffs</strong> are paid by the Chinese because they're devaluing their currency and pouring cash into their economy."&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><br></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .6em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/11/who-pays-the-tax-on-imports-from-china.html" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Counter by the NY Fed:</strong></span></a></h1><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Tariffs</strong> are a form of taxation.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. businesses and consumers</strong> are shielded from the higher tariffs to the extent that Chinese firms lower the dollar prices they charge.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'U.S. import price data,</strong> however, indicate that prices on goods from China have so far not fallen.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">As a result,</strong> wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers, and consumers are left paying the tax.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A May 2019 [NY Fed] &nbsp;</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Liberty Street Economics</strong></em>&nbsp;<a href="https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/05/new-china-tariffs-increase-costs-to-us-households.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">post</a>&nbsp;noted that prices on imports from China have been stable in the face of higher tariffs.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This stability</strong> has continued in the face of further tariff hikes.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As seen in the chart below,</strong> prices on goods from China fell by only 2 percent in dollar terms between June 2018, just before the first tariffs were imposed, and September 2019.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This drop is a small fraction</strong> of the amount required to offset the increase in tariff rates.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> prices on goods purchased from Mexico and the so-called Newly Industrialized Economies (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong) have fallen by roughly the same amount, suggesting that this small drop is the result of general market conditions rather than the increase in tariffs.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some observers</strong> have argued that the depreciation of China's currency against the U.S. dollar is shielding U.S. businesses and consumers from the impact of the tariffs.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the facts</strong> we've reviewed show that Chinese firms have not used the change in exchange rates to regain some of the competiveness lost from tariffs by lowering their prices in dollar terms.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> they've accepted the loss in competitiveness in the U.S. market and have used the weaker currency to pad profits on each unit of&nbsp;sales.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The continued stability of import prices</strong> for goods from China means U.S. firms and consumers have to pay the tariff tax.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Who pays the tariff tax</strong> depends on how it is split between lower profit margins (for wholesalers, retailers, and manufacturers) and higher prices for consumers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/go_gkmT-AYyrTZKbStqMXTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GTOKG?track_p_id=8LJsb2pmf8dtHSA_2AWcImz" style="border-bottom:none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6GTOKG?track_p_id=7btZZINi8dtHSA_kAHakSZm" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Financial Warning Signs Are Flashing Almost Everywhere</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Authorities have been trying “to bring discipline into the market, but every time that happens, the consequences become frightening so they back away."</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From rural bank&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/bank-run-in-rural-china-tests-faith-in-thousands-of-lenders" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">runs</strong></a>&nbsp;to surging consumer indebtedness and an&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-26/china-faces-biggest-state-firm-offshore-debt-failure-in-20-years" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">unprecedented</a>&nbsp;bond restructuring, mounting signs of financial stress in China are putting the nation’s policy makers to the test.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi Jinping’s government faces</strong> an increasingly difficult balancing act as it tries to support the world’s second-largest economy without encouraging&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-21/china-s-40-trillion-banking-system-learns-a-hard-lesson-on-risk" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">moral hazard</a> and reckless spending.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While authorities</strong> have so far been reluctant to rescue troubled borrowers and ramp up stimulus, the costs of maintaining that stance are rising as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/Q1D3HTDWRGG6" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">defaults</a> increase and China’s slowdown&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-26/china-s-economy-slows-for-seventh-month-early-indicators-show" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">deepens</a>.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In its annual Financial Stability Report</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-25/over-13-of-china-s-banks-are-highly-risky-central-bank-says" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">released</a>&nbsp;this week, China’s central bank':</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘described</strong> 586 of the country’s almost 4,400 lenders as “high risk,” slightly more than last year, and saying they are forcing troubled banks to increase capital, cut bad loans, limit dividends and replace management.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘highlighted the dangers</strong> associated with rising consumer leverage - household debt as a percentage of disposable income jumped to 99.9% in 2018 from 93.4% a year earlier.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘warned</strong> excessive corporate debt, which climbed to a record 165% of gross domestic product in 2018.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s finance ministry</strong> ordered local governments to speed up the issuance of debt earmarked for infrastructure projects – a sign that authorities may be growing more concerned about downside risks to the economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The move put a fresh spotlight</strong> on the policy dilemma facing China’s leaders: While such support measures may help bolster economic and financial stability in the short term, the risk is that they leads to even bigger debt problems down the line.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Authorities have been trying</strong> “to bring discipline into the market, but every time that happens, the consequences become frightening so they back away,” said <strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael Pettis</strong>, a finance professor at Peking University.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6YdieO?track_p_id=3Rq58HOZOY_GMqYGJueSEBu" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/rWJ1USBE2rtUIvha_CwfCEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6YdieO?track_p_id=cE4Mayfhlu2JW8HOZOY_I3F" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Rocky’ shock for China makes Trump Hong Kong hero</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Front and center at the rally were printouts of the president’s Wednesday tweet showing&nbsp;his head on Rocky Balboa’s chiseled body.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On November 27, </strong>President Trump tweeted -- apparently without irony - a photo of Rocky Balboa with his head replacing Sylvester Stallone's.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Who says they don't have a sense of humor?:</strong> 'Team Trump jumped in on jokes about the image, tweeting: "Washington Post claims - without evidence - that @realDonaldTrump shared a 'doctored' photo." <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-disputes-picture-president-rocky-doctored-1474789" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Newsweek</a></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Pro-democracy HKers</strong> missed the joke.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="https://nypost.com/2019/11/28/rocky-shock-for-china-makes-trump-hong-kong-hero/" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NY Post</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘President Trump</strong> is Hong Kong’s sudden hero.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hours after</strong> he&nbsp;<a href="https://nypost.com/2019/11/27/trump-signs-bills-supporting-human-rights-in-hong-kong-amid-china-trade-spat/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">signed two bills to support human rights in Hong Kong</a>, angering Chinese government officials, pro-democracy protesters in the beleaguered city held a “Thanksgiving Rally” Thursday night to commend him for taking the action.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And front and center</strong> at the rally were printouts of the president’s Wednesday tweet showing&nbsp;<a href="https://nypost.com/2019/11/27/trump-tweets-out-doctored-photo-of-his-head-on-rocky-balboas-body/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">his head on Rocky Balboa’s chiseled body</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong,”</strong> thousands of protestors chanted in a public square as they waved American flags and held up copies of the photo composite.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="" style="background:#fff;"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/qOOFewgghQqaqJXa7S7n1Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/-6UDCV2pG_h4p2M1CcUsnzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6qo2yW?track_p_id=9n4UMdJsVD5Hgmas_PcHV6K" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6qo2yW?track_p_id=aOJNFQbcUMG5Hgmas_IH6ZC" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The World Doesn’t Have Enough Pigs to Fill China’s Pork Deficit</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'There isn’t enough pork</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">in the whole world</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">to make up for the millions of animals China is slaughtering to try to halt the contagion.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The estimated number of pigs</strong> China raised in 2019 plunged about 30% to 490 million—the worst annual slump since the U.S. Department of Agriculture began counting China’s pigs in the mid-1970s.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a massive plunge </strong>in domestic pork production can’t immediately be filled by any country or any alternate source of animal protein.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And there isn’t enough pork</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">in the whole world</strong> to make up for the millions of animals China is slaughtering to try to halt the contagion.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/GzOhgwthKMnBitMEvtp3Tzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/78yNIe?track_p_id=128k43X4_3BkwOlyzc6QxWf" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/78yNIe?track_p_id=bDUjbESDojI48k43X4_3La1" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China hopes Trump will be reelected: He's 'easy to read'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Anna Fifield | Beijing Bureau Chief</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“As long as we have money, we can buy him.</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">That’s the reason why we prefer him to Democrats.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Maybe in the 2020 elections, </strong>it won't be just the Russians or a 400-pound guy sitting on his bed.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many in China’s halls of power</strong> hope that the American leader will win a second term next year.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For although</strong> he may seem unpredictable, Chinese officials are betting that Trump’s transactional approach to politics might be preferable to a more principle-driven president, whether Democrat or Republican.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Trump is a businessman.</strong> We can just pay him money and the problems will be solved,” said a politically connected person in Beijing, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk frankly about sensitive international issues.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“As long as we have money, we can buy him.</strong> That’s the reason why we prefer him to Democrats.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Trump isn’t ideologically</strong> opposed to China.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“He doesn’t go on</strong> about human rights and Xinjiang and the South China Sea,” the Beijing insider said, referring to China’s contested maritime claims and to its northwestern region where authorities have detained a million Muslims.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Democratic president</strong> would almost certainly take a more wide-ranging approach to China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The candidates struck a strident tone</strong> in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/read-democratic-debate-transcript-november-20-2019-n1088186" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">debate last week,</a> with several vowing to increase pressure on China over its human rights abuses in Xinjiang and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/china-admonishes-hong-kong-judiciary-after-mask-ruling-raising-pressure-on-citys-tenuous-freedoms/2019/11/18/3e3999de-0a51-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html?tid=lk_inline_manual_21" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">erosion of freedoms</a>&nbsp;in Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Trump does not seem concerned about those issues,"</strong> said Elizabeth Economy, director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang,</strong> the free and open Indo-Pacific, all of these are issues that President Trump does not typically address."</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"If I’m correct in my assumption</strong> that he doesn’t care about these issues, because he never talks about them, then he will be more willing to just trade them out in discussions with the Chinese.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As if to prove that point,</strong> Trump declared Friday that he would be&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/11/22/trump-says-he-might-veto-legislation-that-aims-protect-human-rights-hong-kong-because-bill-would-impact-china-trade-talks/?tid=lk_inline_manual_25" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">willing to&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/11/22/trump-says-he-might-veto-legislation-that-aims-protect-human-rights-hong-kong-because-bill-would-impact-china-trade-talks/?tid=lk_inline_manual_25" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">veto legislation designed</a> to support pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong — despite its near-unanimous support in the House and Senate — to pave the way for a trade deal with China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">3. ‘Below the Radar’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7R8hcm?track_p_id=cJJWvObQiQS%40D8Ufam6_UHk" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7R8hcm?track_p_id=5FeJZY8Ufam6_eJQVnnxh6X" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China Is Surpassing the United States in Diplomacy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As of 2019,</strong> China has surpassed the United States in an underappreciated but crucial measure of global influence: the size of its diplomatic network.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'For decades,</strong> Washington had the largest diplomatic network in the world.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Now China does,</strong> boasting 276 diplomatic posts—including embassies, consulates, and permanent missions to international organizations.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The United States’</strong> network, meanwhile, stands at 273, down one post since 2017.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'This shift</strong> could mark a turning point in great-power competition.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'As Beijing becomes more</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-05-10/how-xi-jinping-views-world" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"> and more willing</a>&nbsp;to deploy its global power, seemingly no longer interested in former leader Deng Xiaoping’s instruction to “hide your strength, bide your time,” it has invested in active and far-reaching diplomacy.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Washington,</strong> meanwhile, has seen both&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-10-14/demolition-us-diplomacy" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">a turn inward and</a> a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-11-19/case-national-security-budget" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">privileging of other tools</a>.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Where once the United States</strong> enjoyed global diplomatic primacy, the playing field is now leveling.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7jJ1wu?track_p_id=d2iCpYtbgX%40Vdb6w5Iic_Nt" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/vm8wRCgurlfR5xOJ56dtvEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7jJ1wu?track_p_id=bKTLhqjincur6w5Iic_Z6%40I" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Beijing has "lost the hearts and minds of Hong Kong and Taiwan.”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nikkei Asian Review</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ezra Vogel</strong> | Harvard University</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The decay of the "one country, two systems" policy&nbsp;is only alienating more people.’’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing has "lost</strong> the hearts and minds of the people in both Hong Kong and Taiwan,” says Harvard’s <strong style="font-weight: bold">Ezra Vogel</strong>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The decay of the "one country, two systems" policy</strong> for managing Hong Kong -- which Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated in January was his intention to impose on Taiwan -- is only alienating more people.’’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Uniting Taiwan with the mainland</strong> is high on Xi's agenda, but Vogel says it was hard to imagine any scenario other than war.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this instance,</strong> Vogel is counting on Beijing's rationality in weighing up "the cost of invading Taiwan, in terms of international opinion and Chinese influence around the world."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/81TMH2?track_p_id=dRJkKyoJUOUtUj6h2JuI_KE" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/81TMH2?track_p_id=8oRZFFCpp6h2JuI_BrnHZH3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China CFA Applicants Keep Beating Finance’s Hardest Exam&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">'Applicants from Asia -- and especially China -- have been flooding into the CFA exams, overtaking interest from every other region.’</strong></h2><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent years,</strong> a trend appeared in the broad statistics published by the CFA Institute: Applicants from Asia -- and especially China -- have been flooding into the CFA exams, overtaking interest from every other region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> the global pass rate has edged higher.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In interviews,</strong> Chartered Financial Analyst holders and applicants from China described surmounting the exams as a warm-down after spending their youth in the marathon run-up to the Gaokao, China’s infamous college entrance test.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many were unfazed</strong> by warnings about the hefty commitment, saying they were willing to spend much more than a mere 300 hours for each of the three parts of the exam, as recommended by the CFA Institute.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Most of the CFA takers </strong>are top students in China,” Niu Jia, a lecturer at China’s leading CFA prep school, said.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“For most of my students,</strong> a few hundred hours is really not a big commitment. It’s nothing compared with the efforts you need to make to squeeze in a top university in China.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One reason for the CFA’s popularity in Asia</strong> is that it offers a globally recognized credential to applicants who may not have attended a school with international name recognition, such as Harvard Business School or the Wharton School, where costs are far out of reach for most people.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/-XAckP1bp77ODqpYF_-tODl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;"> ‘Explainers’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8JdgbA?track_p_id=cAHW6bMqImmTi5R3Xt0_XIJ" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ka41elCOxzaogM-sPYv3uki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8JdgbA?track_p_id=5ROZaH5R3Xt0_ToilUX1Hnr" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Former HK Chief Exec C.Y. Leung on the Hong Kong protests, universal suffrage, and ‘foreign interference’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Correspondents Club, Hong Kong (FCC)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom:1.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think the congressmen who voted for this act have Hong Kong’s freedoms, Hong Kong’s democracy and Hong Kong’s human rights in mind. It’s all about China.”</strong></h2><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.fcchk.org/c-y-leung-on-the-hong-kong-protests-universal-suffrage-and-foreign-interference/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a> the video address (58m)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="https://www.fcchk.org/c-y-leung-on-the-hong-kong-protests-universal-suffrage-and-foreign-interference/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">FCC.</strong></a> ‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">Former Hong Kong Chief Executive C.Y. Leung</strong> and Vice-Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, speaking at the FCC, warned that the consequences of the recent district council election results, which saw pro-democracy candidates take more than 80% of seats, “may be far greater than we imagine.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We’re not seeing the end of this.</strong> We know the results, we know how the votes are split, but we don’t know the consequences.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/former-hong-kong-leader-says-protests-won-t-force-china-s-hand" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">. “It’s extremely senseless</strong> and irresponsible for political figures in Hong Kong and outside Hong Kong to think that somehow by bringing hundreds of thousands of people into the streets of Hong Kong, somehow China’s hand could be forced.”</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He added</strong> it was also pointless to think “that we could have full autonomy in Hong Kong without China’s involvement, that we could have a local democracy that has all the hallmarks of a sovereign democracy.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“They want civic nominations,</strong> open nominations of candidates, and that’s not in the Basic Law, and they did not want to negotiate -- somehow they thought that bringing out the masses, 100,000 people in the streets, why don’t you agree that that’s not politics. That’s not diplomacy.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'He addressed</strong> the U.S.’s Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-27/trump-signs-hong-kong-bill-that-will-strain-relations-with-china" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">signed Wednesday</a>&nbsp;by President Donald Trump.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think</strong> the congressmen who voted for this act were fully informed, or correctly informed.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think</strong> whoever initiated this, be they American or Hong Kong people, ever had the interest of Hong Kong in mind. It’s a proxy thing.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t think</strong> they have Hong Kong’s freedoms, Hong Kong’s democracy and Hong Kong’s human rights in mind.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It’s all about China.”</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px;font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8bo0vI?track_p_id=1R7VZ9yg_r4Z464XWWvJbBL" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/UZ8_CV5GZ9fm2hNnC00_7Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8bo0vI?track_p_id=7Cx2DWl%407VZ9yg_NDhrDwfS" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Xi Jinping's China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Elizabeth Economy</strong> | Council on Foreign Relations</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei</strong> | Claremont McKenna College</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/00c67609-fad5-4d05-9b4f-d5cbc77f8e55#myft:my-news:page" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Listen</strong></a> to the podcast (17m36s)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Elizabeth Economy </strong>of the Council on Foreign Relations and <strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei</strong> of Claremont McKenna College in California talk about the cult of personality around Xi Jinping in China. &nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8tyLFQ?track_p_id=3llc9KgaMQ_uwOgwsM6MeVF" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8tyLFQ?track_p_id=aQ3khljhB1d9KgaMQ_xEWHQ" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China's Crackdowns Shows Fear and Insecurity</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hal Brands</strong> | School of Advanced International Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s regime&nbsp;lives in fear of what its own population might do.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi’s regime</strong> presents a formidable exterior, but like so many dictatorships, it lives in fear of what its own population might do.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These two faces of Chinese power</strong> are intimately related: The Chinese leadership acts so decisively in dealing with dissent precisely because it is so afraid of dissent.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is also</strong> one of the key drivers of Chinese geopolitical behavior.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign policy</strong> is the way countries seek to make the world conducive to the survival and flourishing of their domestic institutions.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’And Chinese foreign policy</strong> is focused intensely on&nbsp;<a href="https://halbrands.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/60-5-07-Brands.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">neutralizing&nbsp;</a>foreign threats to the dominance of the Communist Party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Beijing freezes relations with Norway</strong> over the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident, when it lashes out over tweets by employees of U.S. corporations, or when it uses economic or diplomatic sanctions to punish countries that condemn its human rights abuses, it is reacting to the possibility that external criticism may incite internal instability.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When China seeks</strong> to undermine the sovereignty and security of Taiwan, it is combating a profound ideological&nbsp;<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=etRkjLv8AosC&amp;pg=PA213&amp;dq=Taiwan%E2%80%99s+simply+being+what+it+is+%E2%80%93+a+modern+Chinese+society+that+is+economically+prosperous+and+politically+democratic&amp;hl=en&amp;newbks=1&amp;newbks_redir=0&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjk85-6voPmAhXxUt8KHXh4AkkQ6AEwAHoECAgQAg#v=onepage&amp;q=Taiwan%E2%80%99s%20simply%20being%20what%20it%20is%20%E2%80%93%20a%20modern%20Chinese%20society%20that%20is%20economically%20prosperous%20and%20politically%20democratic&amp;f=false" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">threat&nbsp;</a>in the form of a country that is culturally Chinese and has thrived under democratic politics.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Beijing tries</strong> to weaken and displace American influence and create a&nbsp;<a href="https://tnsr.org/2018/11/xis-vision-for-transforming-global-governance-a-strategic-challenge-for-washington-and-its-allies/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">more </a>Sino-centric international order, it is aiming to create a global environment that supports one-party rule.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">Authoritarianism and revisionism</strong> go hand-in-hand.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%"><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 27, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OCkpk?track_p_id=eWDPOd3sLnIDac46ssFRO_E" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/uhp7CvL-kYuJYdwsZTPG2Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6OCkpk?track_p_id=blLMBflkTmtD6ssFRO_A33q" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong's Pan-Democracy Win</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .6em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With the pan-democracy victory</strong> in Hong Kong’s district council elections, the resistance to Beijing’s encroachment enters a new phase.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To explain</strong> the significance of the victory and to highlight the competing ideas, this issue of the China Macro Reporter is devoted to the Hong Kong elections.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And for the first time here,</strong> we have an exchange of views between a distinguished China expert and me.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When we began</strong> our back and forth neither thought the exchange, which occurred before the election, would be published.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the expert’s views represented</strong> so well one stance on the Hong Kong issue and on China more broadly that I obtained his permission to include it here.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I hope this is the first</strong> so many robust exchanges – nothing is more illuminating and useful.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So please</strong> shoot me your thoughts, the more developed the better.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As for</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">what the new phase</strong> in Hong Kong will bring, I agree with Fraser Howie: &nbsp;&nbsp;"To be honest, I have no idea what comes next."</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Be sure to forward</strong> the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleague.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gN59s?track_p_id=75WvrocA7nkcd4_lXv3U36d" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/fpGU-wSZv6h37ihY1x6e3Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6gN59s?track_p_id=bkf2ovsGnVka7nkcd4_2XQr" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong elections: pan-democrats celebrating landslide win vow to keep up pressure on city’s beleaguered leader to address protesters’ demands</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Morning Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democrats took control</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">of 17 out of 18 district councils.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong’s opposition pan-democrats</strong> celebrated their landslide victory at Sunday’s historic district council polls by vowing to keep up the pressure on the government to bow to protesters’ demands, while their humiliated pro-Beijing rivals were left reeling from their shock defeat.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of the 452 seats up for grabs,</strong> the pro-democracy camp netted 392 – comprising 347 pan-democrats and 45 independents who are friendly with the camp. The pro-establishment camp had to settle for the remaining 60.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Democrats also took control</strong> of 17 out of 18 district councils.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The only council held by the pro-establishment</strong> camp was the 18-member Islands district, where eight seats were handed out automatically to pro-establishment rural chiefs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The dramatically changed</strong> electoral landscape was a mirror image of four years ago when the pan-democrats won only 116 seats, while the pro-establishment camp bagged 292 seats, taking control of all 18 district councils.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/JWDRq-Qn5UZ6mcKiL9naIDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6yXPU0?track_p_id=9uuBd1Yv3i8twkd4_%40L3Yal" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6yXPU0?track_p_id=6%40Ws4UP8twkd4_FnbQuIEdH" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong's Political Landscape is 'Very Much the Same'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The landscape is still very much the same.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pro-Beijing camp</strong> has historically captured about 40 per cent of votes in Hong Kong’s elections,” said Samson Yuen of Lingnan University.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And it is important to note</strong> that in this election the pro-Beijing camp still captured around 40 per cent of the vote, despite what has happened over the past several months.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“If you look at the vote share</strong> for the pro-democracy movement, there isn’t that much to be happy about because in terms of the overall vote share.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The landscape</strong> is still very much the same.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ghjo8?track_p_id=dDERJsvoXW4ymJ6kg53m_D2" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ghjo8?track_p_id=3aIK6kg53m_XEClKbz5r33o" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong Election Landslide Signals More Frictions With Beijing</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keith Bradsher</strong> | NYT</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’Now what remains</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">to be seen is how Beijing will respond and one possibility is — it won’t.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the run-up</strong> to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/24/world/asia/hong-kong-election-results.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">local elections in Hong Kong</a>&nbsp;on Sunday, Beijing and its allies in the city were portraying the vote as a way to hear the voice of a silent majority after&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/18/world/asia/hong-kong-protests.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">nearly six months of increasingly violent antigovernment protests</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, that majority has spoken</strong> — and it has come out overwhelmingly against Beijing and its allies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What all sides agree</strong> on is that the election landslide puts China’s ruling Communist Party under even greater pressure to respond to the protest movement. Where their views differ is on what it means.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To the pro-democracy camp,</strong> that means addressing the broader Hong Kong public’s calls for more official accountability.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Other politicians</strong> are concerned that the vote could be seen by Beijing as a sign that the territory is slipping further from its grip and requires a harsher response.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The city’s pro-Beijing camp,</strong> in contrast, found itself in full retreat.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Leaders</strong> of the main pro-Beijing political party gathered on Monday to bow their heads in a televised public apology.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A federation of pro-Beijing labor unions</strong> which suffered heavy losses in district races on Sunday angrily blamed Mrs. Lam’s policies, seeking to distance itself from the unpopular administration.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mrs. Lam gave few clues</strong> on her next move, saying in a statement that the Hong Kong government would “listen to the opinions of members of the public humbly and seriously reflect.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’Now what remains</strong> to be seen is how Beijing will respond and one possibility is — it won’t.'</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ys48G?track_p_id=5H2PlU7qxz5S_aJ52uXe3yH" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/LVEdRSpgxX4CbqTrlPycNEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Ys48G?track_p_id=8sdRBleMV7qxz5S_GMK6U6L" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong's election result sends a 'clear signal'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CNBC</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H45i7TlpoY4" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong> the 3m video interview</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is a short take on the Hong Kong elections </strong>from one of my favorite analysts, <strong style="font-weight: bold">Fraser Howie.</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It's a stunning victory</strong> for the pro-democracy movement. I don't think anyone expected this."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam,</strong> for five months, has been able to say, ‘I can't do anything. There's so much violence. We need to stop the violence.’”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Well, for the past weekend</strong> there's basically been no issues.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Now I admit it's only a weekend.</strong> But here there's a very clear sign: 3 million Hong Kong have come out in a very orderly fashion, made their votes, and sent a very clear signal to the establishment: the ball's in your court. We want a positive engagement from your side.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“This is a very peaceful,</strong> established method.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“This is not just a march</strong>, where some ask what are people marching for? This is not just clearly a riot.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“This is part of the structure</strong> of the Hong Kong establishment, of how Hong Kong works.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“This is very much a formal framework,</strong> and it's a formal rebuff to Carrie Lam.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;"But to be honest,</strong> I have no idea what comes next."</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7r2OSO?track_p_id=9bpzRKwDhL7K18ko_1H5kdH" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7r2OSO?track_p_id=ecP6x1SLcoyEM5p7K18ko_n" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Beijing Was Confident Its Hong Kong Allies Would Win. After the Election, It Went Silent.&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times, Wall Street Journal &amp; Washington Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The sudden pivot reflects the ruling Communist Party’s continuing struggle to understand one of its worst political crises in decades.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/26/world/asia/china-hong-kong-protests-election.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NYT</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘The Chinese government</strong> seemed confident that its allies would prevail in the Hong Kong elections on&nbsp;Sunday.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For&nbsp;a week,</strong> commentators wrote brassy pieces saying the Hong Kong public would go to the polls to “end social chaos and violence,” a vote against what they saw as&nbsp;rogues and&nbsp;radicals.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Editors at state-run news outlets</strong> prepared stories that predicted withering losses for the protest movement.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When it became clear</strong> early Monday that democracy advocates in the semiautonomous territory had won in a landslide, Beijing turned silent.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The news media,</strong> for the most part, did not even report the election results.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Chinese officials</strong> directed their ire at a familiar foe: the United States.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The sudden pivot reflects</strong> the ruling Communist Party’s continuing struggle to understand one of its worst political crises in decades.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At various moments</strong> in the months’ long protests in Hong Kong, Beijing has been caught off guard, forced to recalibrate its propaganda machine.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-questions-hong-kong-vote-claiming-sabotage-11574778113?mod=searchresults&amp;page=1&amp;pos=6" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WSJ</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘It raises questions</strong> over the quality of information the central government is relying upon,’ as the China Macro Reporter has noted before.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/in-hong-kong-elections-big-defeat-for-elites-pressures-beijing-to-rethink-approach/2019/11/25/ef7b1dbc-0f29-11ea-924c-b34d09bbc948_story.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WAPO</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘Susan Shirk,</strong> a China expert and former Clinton administration official who is now at the University of California at San Diego, said it was possible that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had not received accurate information&nbsp;from lower-level officials&nbsp;on the public dissatisfaction in Hong Kong, despite months of protests.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“No one</strong> has wanted to give him bad news.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The more than 70&nbsp;percent</strong> of the Hong Kong public who voted in this election sent him a message he can’t ignore.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/89CimW?track_p_id=bpjgjLIFM5Hg5B6C34_mgf5" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/fpGU-wSZv6h37ihY1x6e3Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/89CimW?track_p_id=2oJ5B6C34_p52peBcpx1UUK" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong election takeaways: has pan-democrat domination made them kingmakers in race to succeed Carrie Lam as chief executive?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Morning Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The pro-democracy side is set to enjoy a bigger say in the next chief executive election in three years.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Next big prize: </strong>The massive gains by the pan-democrats will translate most significantly in the choice of Hong Kong’s future leader.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since the pro-democracy side</strong> holds power in the overwhelming majority of district councils, it is set to enjoy a bigger say in the next chief executive election in three years.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Sunday’s result</strong> means it will be able to obtain about 117 seats in the 1,200-strong Election Committee that selects the city’s leader.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now that they have control</strong> of the district councils, it would be a safe bet to say pan-democrats have those committee seats in the bag.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This is not an insubstantial figure</strong> when added to the 325 other seats they typically control.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It could make the pan-democrats</strong> the kingmakers in the next election for Hong Kong’s leader.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If that happens,</strong> stay tuned for Beijing’s reaction.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8RN36e?track_p_id=dx3A4Szlvsdi3h59XOpi_OR" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8RN36e?track_p_id=bGUjGsmiDjqE59XOpi_MYZC" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Hong Kong: ‘These are the faces of the unrest.’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These are the faces of the unrest.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/23/world/asia/hong-kong-protesters-photos.html" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Click here</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong> to have a look at this striking visual presentation.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Moving combination</strong> of portraits and comments that lay out the thinking from the range of players: The Fighters, The Activists, The Adversaries, The Supporters, The Allies, &amp; The Casualites.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To the protesters</strong> and their advocates, it all represents a movement to protect the city’s freedoms and defend democratic ideals.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To the government,</strong> the police and their supporters, it is a threat that is damaging the economy and undermining society.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both camps</strong> are made up of individuals. Their motivations and perspectives differ. Their means vary.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But they all have</strong> the same goal: defending their city.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These are the faces</strong> of the unrest.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/M6UTWMKFxwKgVP2sQPMn2Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8jXNQm?track_p_id=56KEnJ6RIgNq_NiWQHAvGkf" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Tad6xj_ebVw7qqeNRLm3H0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8jXNQm?track_p_id=cuBTaGKzW1Dyf6RIgNq_%40yU" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: .8em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the protesters had avoided violence and opted to wait patiently to express their preferences at the ballot box, the same message could have been sent.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This essay</strong> is not by some writers serving Chinese-controlled media, but two well-respected Hong Kongers:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Andrew Sheng,</strong> Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xiao Geng,</strong> President of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, is a professor and Director of the Research Institute of Maritime Silk-Road at Peking University HSBC Business School.&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;">&nbsp;________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly six months</strong> after they began, the protests in our city have reached fever pitch.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They claim</strong> that they are fighting for democracy, but it is hard to reconcile that lofty goal with medieval-style catapults launching bricks and firebombs.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In truth,</strong> the protesters’ scorched-earth strategy can lead only to more chaos, destruction, and death.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed, the latest district council election,</strong> with a turnout rate of 71.2%, showed that people voted peacefully for change.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the protesters</strong> had avoided violence and opted to wait patiently to express their preferences at the ballot box, the same message could have been sent.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The election result</strong> is an opportunity for all to reflect carefully on the need to end violent protests and work together to address genuine grievances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘All sides must show</strong> empathy, humility, and a willingness to compromise as they design and implement governance reforms that are consistent with Hong Kong’s Basic Law and China’s constitution.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The alternative</strong> is not some fantasy of an independent and thriving Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a devastated economy,</strong> a divided society, and a lost generation.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pretending otherwise</strong> will only make that outcome more difficult to avoid.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">LETTERS TO THE EDITOR</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/91hhku?track_p_id=2d58nJNSo_DUfaVY5teov3b" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/uhp7CvL-kYuJYdwsZTPG2Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/91hhku?track_p_id=63K5dLS8nJNSo_TjEqDwCYj" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">An Exchange of Views on the Hong Kong  </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I encourage </strong>to send me your thoughts on issue, whether covered in the China Macro Reporter or not.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nothing better</strong> or more illuminating than an exchange of views.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This exchange </strong>took place not long before the recent Hong Kong elections.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My counterpart </strong>is a distinguished China expert and a good friend.<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;">____________________________________&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Malcolm,”</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I'm puzzled</strong> by your apparent approval of the near unanimous Congressional support for the ‘HK Human Rights and Democracy Act’ [I noted &nbsp;in an earlier issue that I was “heartened” by the Act] and the ongoing demonstrations in HK.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t claim to understand</strong> what is going on there or what the students want to achieve, but if their ongoing demonstrations are basically aimed at telling Beijing that HK doesn’t want to be ruled by the CPC, now or ever, it seems to me a lost cause.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t see</strong> how these demonstrations and foreign support for them, can lead to a positive outcome.’”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Can you imagine that the PRC</strong> would ever agree to give HK permanent independence or a restoration of the city’s colonial status?’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“In my opinion</strong> the demonstrations should have been discontinued when the draft Extradition Law was definitely pulled.”&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t like what Mr. Xi is doing either,</strong> but the die on HK’s future was basically cast in 1984, when Margaret Thatcher and Deng Xiaoping signed their "Joint Declaration" (on the return of HK to Chinese sovereignty at the expiration of Britain’s 99-yr lease on Kowloon, in 1997).’’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I agree with the attached </strong><a href="http://www.settimananews.it/italia-europa-mondo/beijings-win-hong-kong-and-its-long-term-issues/#respond" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">recent piece</strong></a> by Francesco Sisci in Settimana (a dual language Italian weekly). Francesco is the longest serving foreign correspondent in China (since the late 1970s.)”</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">/signed/</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;">____________________________________&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Hi ___ ,”</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I understand</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> your being puzzled at my approval (not apparent) of Congressional support for HK.”</span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“You are right</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> that Hong Kong’s fate was sealed in 1984.’”</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But, HK still sort of hummed</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> along for a couple of decades without much feeling Beijing’s hand.”</span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“With the coming of Xi,</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> Beijing’s grip became tighter in China and in HK.”</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“HKers only have to look</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> across the border to the north to see what’s in store for them – and they can see that it’s coming faster than expected.”</span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Is resistance futile?</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> Absolutely.”</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But I would like to believe</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> that at least part of the protesters' futile efforts comes from a place that doesn’t calculate the odds of victory (however many disparate definitions of that HKers may hold), that instead comes from some deep place in the spirit that rebels against tyranny.”</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“A spirit</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> that will not allow some to live with themselves if they just knuckle under.”</span></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So, however futile</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> the HKers' effort, making the effort is not.”</span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“My</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">favorite symbol</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> not just from the American Revolution but of all time is this flag that says: </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadsden_flag" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Don’t Tread on Me.”</strong></span></a></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And I cheer</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> when I see others - like those in HK - who will not submit easily when a government begins to tread on them.”</span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“As for Congress and the Act, </strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b">well, I support any expression from U.S. lawmakers, however rare these days, of the values of America at its best.”</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So when elected officials</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> finally decided to stand in support of individual rights and against China’s squeeze on what liberties HKers have left, I cheered.”</span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“All the best,”</strong></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Malcolm”</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;">&nbsp;____________________________________&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Malcolm”</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I also support the HK students</strong> in their desire to stay out of the CCP’s clutches, but I fear that their demonstrations against the local HK government and against Beijing have become counterproductive in recent weeks (after the draft Extradition Law was withdrawn).”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“There doesn’t seem</strong> to be an explicit set of objectives.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Some of the demonstrations</strong> have become very violent - an innocent HK citizen who tried to argue with demonstrators was immolated and set on-fire; petrol bombs have been thrown at HK police and dangerous arrows were fired at them; subway-traffic was disrupted, the HK International Airport had to close at some point; some government buildings were ransacked”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“As some of the demonstrators</strong> are now behaving like hooligans, I see no viable purpose in the demonstrations any longer.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Not only have the demonstrations</strong> (as a method toward a goal, or goals) become politically futile, but they risk undermining HK’s economic future.”&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Like you,</strong> I am extremely disappointed at and distrustful of what Xi is trying to do politically (and economically) and believe that the PRC’s One-Party state political model cannot be sustained indefinitely.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But I think that official external support</strong> for the HK demonstrations will only create additional problems for China and for external supporters, making things worse, rather than better, as presumably intended.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Whether we like it or not,</strong> we have no choice but to live with the PRC as it is."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I don’t believe that</strong> “decoupling” is the answer either.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Quite the opposite:</strong> I am in favor of intensifying the dialogue and interaction between the US and the PRC in many areas.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Meanwhile,</strong> I am puzzled by the apparent support for Xi from many educated Chinese.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Domestic opposition</strong> (from within the CCP) to Xi’s policies, which so far has remained “underground” for reasons we can only guess, is the only hope, I think, for meaningful political reform in China.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">/signed/</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%"><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 23, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/9GiEC0?track_p_id=1P9Gph7e_Rv4xVQrrgg4Bmm" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/uhp7CvL-kYuJYdwsZTPG2Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/9GiEC0?track_p_id=duJ4ks3ScZRMrq9Gph7e_Rt" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Bloomberg's 'New Economy Forum'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg convened the ‘New Economy Forum’</strong> in Beijing from November 20-22.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Forum</strong> brought together an outstanding cast of top China experts giving up-to-the-minute analyses on topics ranging from the Congress’ Hong Kong bill to U.S.-China decoupling.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the coming issues, </strong>we will bring excerpts from those experts’ discussions on China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this issue: </strong>Henry Kissinger, Susan Shirk, Scott Kennedy, Hank Paulson, and Jim McGregor.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also, in the issue,</strong> how President Trump saved China.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“If it weren’t for me,</strong> Hong Kong would have been obliterated in 14 minutes.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, an explanation</strong> of why ‘China Has Few Options to Retaliate Against U.S. Over Hong Kong.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally,</strong> another great analysis from Dinny McMahon of Macro Polo, ‘Is There a Method Behind Beijing’s Bank Rescue Madness?,’ on an issue we’ve been following: how China is dealing with weak smaller banks.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This issue is jam-packed</strong> with great China insights. Let me know what you think.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And be sure to forward</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">‘New Economy Forum’ | bloomberg</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/4tLhqK?track_p_id=bjNOiWDq23tk8KkFaA_JEYv" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/AgjxUzZrW3kK1Lndf4DV6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/4tLhqK?track_p_id=6PTmcxv8KkFaA_TUOpdZKNs" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Kissinger Discusses Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Economy Forum | Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Henry Kissinger</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Niall Ferguson</strong> | Hoover Institution, Stanford</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“Hong Kong is bound to be a highly emotional issue in China."</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JedBvr1Up4g" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;the video interview </strong>(28m)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">FERGUSON: “I've been very struck</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> by the way that in the space of less than two years, the relationship has gone from being about trade and tariffs to being about technology from 5G to artificial intelligence.”</em></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Now maybe since October</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> of last year when Vice President Pence gave his speech at the Hudson Institute, we seem to be in the realm of politics.”</em></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And the most recent example</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> of this is the response of the U.S. Congress to events in Hong Kong with both houses of Congress passing legislation that is certainly seen as provocative from the vantage point of Beijing.”</em></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Is this something</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> that we should be worried about?”</em></span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">KISSINGER:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “Hong Kong</strong> is bound to be a highly emotional issue in China, being the first colony or first territory that was extracted from China in the period of colonialism."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So it's return to China</strong> has a highly symbolic quality.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The United States</strong> through its history saw Hong Kong as a relatively minor issue.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So now when a series</strong> of dramatic events are unfolding each side it's bound to be influenced by its historical perception.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Also, the United States</strong> is undergoing an election at the moment. So what the people emotionally understand is a very dominant factor.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I hope that the issue</strong> will be settled by negotiation that maintains the principles by which de-colonization was carried out some period ago.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And I believe</strong> that is possible and it should be likely.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5BW2AS?track_p_id=3kj490kspi_vwWWcbsGnNa2" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/AgjxUzZrW3kK1Lndf4DV6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5BW2AS?track_p_id=bFlqicvtnreV90kspi_bfff" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Kissinger: “We're still in the foothills of a cold war.”</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Economy Forum | Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Henry Kissinger</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Niall Ferguson</strong> | Hoover Institution, Stanford</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We're still in the foothills of a cold war.”</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JedBvr1Up4g" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;the video interview </strong>(28m)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">KISSINGER:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “It's especially important</strong> that a period of relative tension be followed by an explicit effort to understand what the political causes were and a commitment by both sides to try to overcome those.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It is far from being too late</strong> for that because we're still in the <span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">foothills of a cold war</strong></ins></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline">.”</ins></span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“For 40 years after the opening to China,</strong> the manner of dealing with each other was positive.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“They were differences,</strong> but none of them touched the essence of a military conflict.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“In America</strong> this was the dominant point of view until about three years ago.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The rapidity</strong> with which it changed should itself be a warning to the nature in which domestic considerations can influence matters.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When we started with China,</strong> the idea of China being a military threat was never seriously considered.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“If you look at the history,</strong> it really developed only in the last 10 years in part because modern technology produces capacities that were unthinkable a decade ago.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So even a normal evolution</strong> of China would shrink the comparative balance of power by the mere nature of modern technology.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">FERGUSON: "Your phrase, the foothills of the cold war</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic">, is echoing in my mind. And I remember your point that the Cold War was started by Stalin, was started by the Soviet Union.”</em></span></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It seems as if</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> you're implying that the big change of the last three years has really come from the American side. But I wonder if that's entirely true.”</em></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Can one see some Chinese responsibility</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> for the change in the relationship that has happened in the last few years?”</em></span></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">KISSINGER:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> I did not mean to imply</strong> that it was the United States.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The point I was trying to make</strong> is that China, by the development of its capacities, presents an inherently a greater threat than when Chinese leaders defined that capacity not from the point of view of making a threat but from the point of view of making China strong.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“So I don't consider that China started this - history started this.”</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Both countries</strong> were caught in a new situation, which they had to interpret. And they both acted in a way compatible with what had gone before, and what had been quite positive before. But they have not yet been able to reconstruct this.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And so now trade negotiations</strong> has become a kind of substitute.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But everybody </strong>knows that trade negotiations can only be a small beginning to a political discussion that I hope will take place in the years ahead.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5TgMUa?track_p_id=dmjWFsK6OMaoev6kbRMM_54" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/AgjxUzZrW3kK1Lndf4DV6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5TgMUa?track_p_id=6FZ65Wd6kbRMM_xGo6ews4K" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"China Is Overreaching, and the U.S. Is Overreacting."</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Economy Forum | Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Susan Shirk | </strong>UC San Diego</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"China's overreaching and America's overreacting.”</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C75w8SIvxMg" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>the video interview (6m 44s)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: “How is Beijing reacting</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> to what's happening in Hong Kong?</em></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">SHIRK:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“That’s a question</strong> I've been asking Chinese colleagues here, asking does Hong Kong help Xi Jinping politically or hurt him politically?”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The impression </strong>I have is that even liberals are nationalists now and there's very little sympathy for the demonstrators in Hong Kong, especially as violence has grown.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And so it's helped unify</strong> support around Xi. It's not a problem for him that way.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: “Is Washington overreacting</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> to the perceived China threat?”</em></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">SHIRK:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“I believe that China's overreaching</strong> and America's overreacting.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“That creates</strong> a really dangerous dynamic.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“People say conflict is</strong> inevitable - Thucydides Trap, et cetera.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You know, we heard Henry Kissinger</strong> say yesterday, we're in the foothills of a new cold war. In other words, this is still only at the very beginning.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I hope that the United States</strong> will really think through a sensible strategy for competing, but competing in a way that doesn't lead to us blowing one another up.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Right now</strong> there's not a lot of that kind of clear thinking in the United States.&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I'm hopeful </strong>that in a post Trump administration there'll be the opportunity to do that.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5lqgoi?track_p_id=eLp%40YeOB4wXtAUT8go0qc_2" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/AgjxUzZrW3kK1Lndf4DV6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5lqgoi?track_p_id=cPQKTft3NO5TK8go0qc_SGe" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">U.S., China Should Seek Managed Interdependence </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Economy Forum &amp; Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Scott Kennedy &amp; Jude Blanchette</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Center for Strategic &amp; Economic Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"The idea of decoupling is so radical."</strong></h2><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S.-China Decoupling Is a Radical Idea’</strong></span></h1><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch Scott's</strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghMyndhMJfE" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;video Interview</strong>&nbsp;</a></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">SCOTT KENNEDY:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The idea of decoupling</strong> is so radical.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The crazy idea</strong> of the hard line used to be deterrence and antidumping and countervailing duties, and then it became let's put on some sanctions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And now we're talking,</strong> let's rip these two economies apart.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s based on a very simple mathematical formula:</strong> greater engagement equals less security.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And that's actually not true.</strong> You can have greater engagement and protect your national security if you have the right type of mechanisms in place to manage the risk.’</li></ul><br><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #c80000"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Managed Interdependence,’ Not Decoupling</strong></span><span style="color: #c80000">&nbsp;</span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Decoupling may be superficially attractive,</strong> but it’s built on three myths.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, the U.S. and China are not connected like a plug and socket,</strong> where the only two choices are full integration or complete autarky.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In fact, ties fall along a spectrum.</strong> The level of integration varies dramatically across every sector of the economic and financial relationship.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second, advocates of decoupling</strong> somehow believe the U.S. government can control the process while everyone else plays a passive role.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In reality, while Washington</strong> can create limits and disincentives to integration, companies and other governments, including China’s, still determine what actually happens.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Third, the logic of decoupling</strong> assumes that greater connectivity with China inherently threatens America’s security; therefore the policy prescription is the opposite -- to roll back integration.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In truth, stronger ties</strong> do expand some vulnerabilities, particularly in the cyber realm.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But they’ve also bolstered</strong>S. security by integrating China into international institutions, making it dependent on Western technology and markets, and increasing profits for American companies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The alternative to decoupling</strong> isn’t blind naivete about China – it is what we call “managed interdependence.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s to adopt</strong> a more judicious approach to integration, one that remains optimistic about its benefits and confident in the strengths of the American system and its capacity for innovation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/64118q?track_p_id=aUDs6sdutKt7tHHhO_nnSYh" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/AgjxUzZrW3kK1Lndf4DV6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/64118q?track_p_id=e3cKSRZ6JdxkomP7tHHhO_W" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"Delisting China Firms From U.S. Is ‘Terrible Idea."</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Economy Forum | Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hank Paulson</strong> | former U.S. Treasury Secretary</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I believe we are now headed in precisely the wrong direction."</strong></h2><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-11-21/paulson-delisting-china-firms-from-u-s-is-terrible-idea-video" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Paulson's video address</strong> (4m 36s)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">HANK PAULSON:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> 'I believe we are now headed</strong> in precisely the wrong direction.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'We are headed for</strong> more decoupling, not less, despite professions of constructive intent from Washington and Beijing.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Decoupling in flows of goods</strong> will likely continue after a Phase One trade deal because the idea of tariffs has been relegitimized after taking a wall up following the dismal failures of the 1930s'.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The originators</strong> of America’s disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariff act of 1930 would be ecstatic.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But what concerns me most</strong> is what's happened to the flows of capital and technology over this past year.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Both areas</strong> are vulnerable to significant negative headwinds in the form of policy changes under consideration in the U.S. and China.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Curbing financial decoupling.</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'China must open further.</strong> It needs to resist the defensive temptation to protect domestic firms that would become stronger if they're subjected to best in class foreign competition.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'But Washington needs</strong> to resist some temptations too: decoupling China from U.S. markets by delisting Chinese firms. from U.S. exchanges is a terrible idea.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6MBLSy?track_p_id=08AL8qU_Giup3M2VqEsM2iS" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/AgjxUzZrW3kK1Lndf4DV6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6MBLSy?track_p_id=7gSJXseI8AL8qU_AZqq1Q31" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">"China’s Been the Nice Guys in Negotiations."</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New Economy Forum | Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jim McGregor | </strong>APCO Worldwide</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“The wildcard is the President of the United States."</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqYwlA5XbSY" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Jim's video interview </strong>(6m35s)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: “Are we likely</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> to get a Phase One deal by the end of this year?”</em></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MCGREGOR:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “Both sides</strong> feel they need one because it's affecting their economies and their political systems.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The wildcard</strong> is the President of the United States. He may want to keep this trade war going through the election to show how tough and strong he is. But then he's worried about what it'll do to the American economy and the stock markets.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“He’s stuck</strong> between those two parameters and we on any given day, you're not sure what he's going to do.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But the rational people</strong> in both governments would like to see some kind of a deal that both of them can say, okay now we've taken the boil off, let's have a longer negotiation on these difficult issues.”</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: “You've talked about</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> there now being a debate within China as to who lost America. How much pressure does that put on president Xi?”</em></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MCGREGOR:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “I think it puts</strong> a lot of pressure on him because they kind of had us where they wanted us.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“China could steal technology</strong> from a big American company. The company would go to the USTR and complain. And then they'd say to the USTR, “don't do anything. I don't want you to mess up my market share in China.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Then they overreached</strong> and actually pushed the American business community into a corner - I watched them turn against China.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: “Does the Hong Kong bill,</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> if it's signed by president Trump, threaten to derail the trade negotiations?”</em></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MCGREGOR:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “I don't think it will derail them</strong> because China doesn’t want to put more pressure on, but China will have to make some noise about it and be unhappy.”</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“China's been on a been on a tear</strong> trying to be the nice guy in the negotiations.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“They've been opening up</strong> different sectors of their economy. They've been doing reforms.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We're not sure whether</strong> to believe them yet, but China has been on, on paper and rhetorically has been talking about opening up more and pointing to more openings that are coming.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Chinese officials</strong> have never been so nice. I've had Chinese officials say, ‘American business, we'd never be where we are without you. You've been so helpful.’”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“That isn't the rhetoric</strong> I've heard the last 30 years.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Q: “What are your clients</strong></em></span><span style="color: #d0021b"><em style="font-style: italic"> still investing in China?”</em></span></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MCGREGOR:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> “Oh my God, yes.”</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The people that need to move out</strong> are toys, textiles, shoes, electronics because it got so expensive, but they have been holding on and eating margin because this place is so efficient.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Most big companies</strong> are in China for China, and they're doubling down because this is going to be the country that leads the internet of things, 5G, robotics, self driving cars. And so they are coming in.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“They're buying Chinese companies,</strong> investing more is they know they have to got be in this market.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“This market</strong> still got several decades of growth.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Now if there's some kind of a bifurcation or decoupling,</strong> they'll deal with it. They'll do business in both places.”&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">1. ‘FRONT &amp; CENTER’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6eLfn6?track_p_id=2nN6OQns6_gLHzDgZU23CRk" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6eLfn6?track_p_id=2DU6OQns6_EQU6zJdt2YaoN" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump Says He Saved Hong Kong by Threatening China in Trade Talks</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“If it weren’t for me, Hong Kong would have been obliterated in 14 minutes.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'President Donald Trump</strong> said he’s personally saved Hong Kong from being “obliterated,” sparing thousands of lives,&nbsp;and argued that the U.S. position has effectively blocked Chinese President Xi Jinping from a violent crackdown.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">President Trump:</strong> “If it weren’t for me, Hong Kong would have been obliterated in 14 minutes.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"He’s got a million soldiers</strong> standing outside of Hong Kong that aren’t going in only because I asked him, ‘Please don’t do that, you’ll be making a big mistake, it’s going to have a tremendous negative impact on the trade deal.’”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And he wants</strong> to make a trade deal.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6wW07E?track_p_id=6Rm325D8dn1ag_vAj2moBjj" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6wW07E?track_p_id=1c8dn1ag_SmIGhjZwQ35Jfm" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump suggests he could veto Hong Kong legislation because it might affect China trade talks </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I stand with Hong Kong. But we are in the process of making the largest trade deal in history.”</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump </strong>suggested Friday that he might veto legislation designed to support pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong — despite its near-unanimous support [one vote in House against] in the House and Senate — to pave the way for a trade deal with China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Speaking on the “Fox &amp; Friends</strong>” morning program, the president said that he was balancing competing priorities in the U.S.-China relationship.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We have to stand with Hong Kong,</strong> but I’m also standing with President Xi,” Trump said. “He’s a friend of mine. He’s an incredible guy. But I’d like to see them work it out. Okay? We have to see and work it out”.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But I stand with Hong Kong.</strong> I stand with freedom. I stand with all of the things that we want to do.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“But we also are in the process</strong> of making the largest trade deal in history. And if we could do that, that would be great. China wants it, we want it.” &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The veto-proof majorities</strong> indicate that Congress could overrule the president if he tries to block the bill from becoming law.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bill threatens</strong> to complicate trade negotiations that already are stalled on several key issues.&nbsp;But some experts say Xi will keep the trade talks and the Hong Kong protests on separate tracks.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Xi sees a trade</strong> deal as easing his economic woes, he will sign it regardless of other irritants in China’s relationship with the U.S., said Aaron Friedberg, a China scholar at Princeton University.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The idea of linkage</strong> between Hong Kong and the trade talks is largely a figment of Trump’s imagination.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I doubt that the Chinese side</strong> has made any such overt connection although, now that Trump has done so.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“They may be happy</strong> to reinforce the idea that, if we somehow go easy on them on Hong Kong, they may eventually ink that illusive ‘great deal,’” said Friedberg, a former adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7EgKRM?track_p_id=5B3%40Z491UWx4_5UnsCCSPOy" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/XElZqDAV0mQy57vR1pEjOUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7EgKRM?track_p_id=1f91UWx4_txgYZGBLMlG3kM" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Has Few Options to Retaliate Against U.S. Over Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;'China’s options</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">for economic retaliation are limited.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://apnews.com/42c0f380ff514db49f9535b4752c7c32" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">AP: China demands Trump veto bills on Hong Kong</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China on Thursday demanded President Donald Trump veto</strong> legislation aimed at supporting human rights in Hong Kong and renewed a threat to take “strong countermeasures” if the bills become law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang</strong> said the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act undermined both China’s interests and those of the U.S. in the semi-autonomous Chinese city.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We urge the U.S. to grasp the situation,</strong> stop its wrongdoing before it’s too late, prevent this act from becoming law (and) immediately stop interfering in Hong Kong affairs and China’s internal affairs,” Geng said at a daily news briefing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“If the U.S. continues</strong> to make the wrong moves, China will be taking strong countermeasures for sure,” Geng said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-21/china-has-few-options-to-retaliate-against-u-s-over-hong-kong" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg: China Is Out of Economic Ammo Against the U.S.</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government</strong> has&nbsp;issued vague but stern-sounding warnings that it will&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-16/china-threatens-retaliation-if-u-s-passes-hong-kong-bill" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">retaliate</a>&nbsp; for a bill passed by Congress that would require the White House to protect human rights and ensure the territory’s autonomy.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China’s options</strong> for economic retaliation are limited. And most of these options have already been exercised amid President Donald Trump's trade war.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s most obvious method of</strong> retaliation would be to stop buying American goods.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China</strong> has already imposed tariffs on $135 billion worth of products.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And ‘sales to China</strong> from all over the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-15/see-the-states-where-trump-trade-war-is-hammering-china-exports" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">have plunged</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The other big </strong>weapon is dumping its investment in U.S. Treasuries. But this danger is vastly exaggerated. As recent experience demonstrates, the U.S. simply doesn’t need Chinese government cash.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2015 and 2016</strong> China experienced one of the biggest capital flights in history, with about $1 trillion pouring out of the country. This resulted in a huge drawdown of China’s foreign-exchange reserves, most of which are U.S. bonds.’ [see chart below]</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the U.S. were heavily dependent</strong> on Chinese government financing, interest rates on U.S. debt -- and by extension, throughout the U.S. economy -- should have risen. Instead, they fell.’ [see chart below]</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If China can dump</strong> a quarter of its U.S. bond holdings and not cause a noticeable movement in American borrowing costs, then the threat represented by the remaining three-quarters probably is small. The U.S., like the rest of the developed world, is simply&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-13/world-awash-in-capital-replaces-era-of-scarcity" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">awash</a> in financial capital.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China does have other weapons</strong> at its disposal:&nbsp;the kind that explode.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In pushing China</strong> over everything from trade to human rights to Hong Kong’s autonomy, the U.S. should remember its own history.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was relentless</strong> economic and diplomatic pressure over Japan’s invasion of China that pushed that country into launching a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With its economic arsenal depleted,</strong> China could at some point decide that a harder form of retaliation is in order.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/sksPDwe-2DFn0NEmJxvf6zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/8N5vQjBn4VkYVwFXL9U4ZDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">3. ‘Below the Radar’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WqelU?track_p_id=523Ewa67dkq6_JSkdbBZBcE" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WqelU?track_p_id=834xfYwJf67dkq6_aC1U6yv" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Is There a Method Behind Beijing’s Bank Rescue Madness?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dinny McMahon</strong> | MacroPolo</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘It seems that small distressed banks will get consolidated together or merged into larger, healthier banks.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Bank rescues in China</strong> may no longer be isolated events.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since May,</strong> one bank has been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-banks-regulator-ncd/chinas-baoshang-bank-takeover-raises-contagion-fears-idUSKCN1SX0QT" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">taken into receivership&nbsp;</a> by the government, two have been&nbsp;<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Banking-Finance/China-mobilizes-aid-for-failing-banks-as-local-economies-slow2" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">bailed out&nbsp;</a> by central authorities, and depositors have lined up outside of two others&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-banks/fears-over-chinas-smaller-banks-trigger-second-bank-run-in-less-than-two-weeks-idUSKBN1XG2CP" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">demanding their money back</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even the chairman of China’s sovereign wealth fund</strong> recently noted that as the economy slows, the failure of financial institutions will become “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/29e133dc-db73-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">a fact of life</a>.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The authorities</strong> seem to be handling such failures in an ad hoc fashion, having “…taken different approaches to Baoshang (taken over by the banking regulator), Jinzhou, and Hengfeng banks (both were bailed out) based on the authorities’ assessment of the institution’s specific circumstances,” as noted by a recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2019/10/01/global-financial-stability-report-october-2019" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">International Monetary Fund report</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a closer look reveals</strong> that the size of the bank appears to be a main determinant in the method by which Beijing chooses to deal with them.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It seems that small distressed banks</strong> will get consolidated together or merged into larger, healthier banks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although authorities have&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-11/banking-regulator-denies-sweeping-plan-to-force-mergers-101482109.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">denied it</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong>&nbsp;Beijing was&nbsp;<a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-11-08/china-is-said-to-mull-wave-of-bank-mergers-to-bolster-stability-101480303.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">reportedly considering&nbsp;</a> a plan that would consolidate together or merge small banks with less than 100 billion yuan worth of assets into larger, healthier banks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason for the official denial</strong> isn’t clear, but China has a long precedent of such consolidations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bank/bank_hydt/2019-09-08/doc-iicezueu4373229.shtml" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Between 2005 and 2014</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong>&nbsp;at least 48 local banks were merged into nine regional banks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given China</strong> has significant experience in bank consolidation—and the simple fact that larger banks are more stable than small banks on their own—it seems likely that more mergers are on the horizon.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%"><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 20, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6yVT4i?track_p_id=04rC8oY_p1rMzcEw5NNxtrz" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/4x73lYAycA6tlG4fEtV_j0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6yVT4i?track_p_id=9wpe1kxDsK4rC8oY_oBGDDh" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Wow! The Senate Sure Has Made China Mad</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">With Hong Kongers’ ongoing</strong> – and violent on both sides – protests against China’s encroachment of their rights, I was heartened to see the the U.S. Senate, following action in the House, passing legislation supporting Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S. holds</strong> an especially big stick: Hong Kong’s “Special Status.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Legislation in the works</strong> would amend the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, under which the U.S. treats Hong Kong differently than the mainland in trade, commerce and other areas – “special status.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rescinding that “special status”</strong> would effectively mean treating the Asian financial hub no differently than any other Chinese city, a seismic shift.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would be “the nuclear option,”</strong> said Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute. “And the beginning of the death of Hong Kong as we know it.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For my part,</strong> I am skeptical that this threat will sway Xi Jinping.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He has a pattern</strong> of sacrificing economic growth for greater political control.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, if he is to avoid</strong> the risk, however small, of Mainlanders following Hong Kongers into the streets demanding greater liberties, he may have no choice but to sacrifice the “Special Status” to regain control of Hong Kong.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> what you think.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And please </strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">forward</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> the China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7GfnOq?track_p_id=aWfUWU4WRhc5IwhpO_AfONZ" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7GfnOq?track_p_id=2m35IwhpO_G1kGzKQZHs4pU" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The great haul of China, illustrated</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Rarely can a simple series of maps tell us so much about an economic era. China’s rise from a poverty-stricken outpost of the global economy to an export powerhouse may be well known, but it remains striking nonetheless.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Comments</strong> on this terrific series of charts:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2000,</strong> a year before China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, the US was the pre-eminent goods exporter to most of the world.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By 2005</strong> China had become the dominant goods exporter to virtually all of Asia. It was making steady progress through Europe, while Africa was also increasingly falling into its sphere of influence.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Roll forward to 2010</strong> and most of the remaining old world holdouts had succumbed to the charms of China’s manufacturing might, with even key US allies such as the UK, France, Australia and New Zealand buying more from the “workshop of the world” than from&nbsp;“the home of the free”.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By 2018,</strong> the rising tide of Chinese export dominance had engulfed most of South America, while mopping up the likes of Nigeria and Saudi Arabia to leave Africa and Asia an endless sea of red, barring&nbsp;— somewhat inexplicably&nbsp;— Bhutan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5dd581ee8c402eafe520032f_Great%20haul%20of%20China-illustrated.gif"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Yq7iy?track_p_id=dRh2Pbcjst1yH67h7Jj4_Ye" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/L7Vi9vnxKhUU-CEtVOLiq0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Yq7iy?track_p_id=07h7Jj4_A1jah5saDX%40XAcr" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How&nbsp;U.S. Congress Is Angering China Over&nbsp;Hong Kong</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">South China Morning Post (SCMP)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post (WAPO)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘The U.S. Congress is moving closer to making a statement in support of Hong Kong democracy protesters, to the dismay of China’s leaders.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3038657/us-senate-rush-pass-hong-kong-democracy-bill-brings-growing" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">SCMP</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act</strong> breezed through the Senate on Tuesday night, with many members racing to co-sponsor the bill at the last minute.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The speed</strong> with which the US Senate passed a bill that would allow Washington to suspend Hong Kong’s special status reflects growing concern about the situation in the city – something that business leaders have described as a greater source of worry than its contents.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A companion bill</strong> already passed the House of Representatives in October.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/howus-congress-is-angering-china-overhong-kong/2019/11/19/b32326ac-0b4b-11ea-8054-289aef6e38a3_story.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WAPO</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘The U.S. Congress</strong> is moving closer to making a statement in support of Hong Kong democracy protesters, to the dismay of China’s leaders.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Legislation in the works</strong> would amend the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, under which the U.S. treats Hong Kong differently than the mainland in trade, commerce and other areas – “special status.” (Hong Kong is part of China but has a different legal and economic system, a holdover from its time as a British colony.)’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rescinding that “special status”</strong> would effectively mean treating the Asian financial hub no differently than any other Chinese city, a seismic shift.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Is the "special status" being rescinded?</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Congress isn’t</strong> going that far.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> -- who could suspend it already with an executive order -- has said nothing to suggest that is on the table.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The most significant</strong> of four measures passed by the House on Oct. 15 would require the U.S. secretary of state to certify -- as part of an annual report report to Congress -- whether Hong Kong remains “sufficiently autonomous” from Beijing to justify its unique treatment under U.S. law.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That includes</strong> “the degree to which Hong Kong’s autonomy has been eroded due to actions taken by the government of China.” The Senate unanimously passed a similar bill on Nov. 19.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What would losing that status mean for Hong Kong?</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An estimated $38 billion</strong> in trade between Hong Kong and the U.S. could be jeopardized.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Longer term,</strong> people might have a second thought about raising money or doing business in Hong Kong,” said Kevin Lai, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would be “the nuclear option,”</strong> said Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute. “And the beginning of the death of Hong Kong as we know it.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How has China responded?</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With a threat to retaliate,</strong> although it hasn’t said how.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng</strong> Shuang warned U.S. lawmakers to stop meddling in China’s internal affairs “before falling off the edge of the cliff” and accused them of disregarding the “vile behavior” of “violent radicals.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The official Xinhua News Agency</strong> has used stronger language, accusing U.S. lawmakers of “smearing China to score cheap political gains as usual.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It blasted as “groundless” accusations</strong> about the loss of freedom or human rights issues in Hong Kong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also noted that the 2018 Human Freedom Index</strong> compiled by the Fraser Institute, a Vancouver-based think tank, ranked Hong Kong at No. 3, way ahead of the U.S. at No. 17.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1170691.shtml" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">“Call it ‘Support HK Violence Act’”</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US Senate</strong> on Tuesday unanimously passed the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act," a move that seriously tarnished sacred terms like "human rights" and "democracy."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bill's real title should be "Support Hong Kong Violence Act"</strong> as it has overtly taken sides with rioters who are destroying the rule of law in Hong Kong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it has targeted</strong> the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government and Hong Kong police, who are struggling to prevent chaos from turning into anarchy.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The core of the new US bill </strong>is to oppose HKSAR government's efforts to stop violence, end chaos as well as to prevent the Chinese central government from saving Hong Kong under any circumstance.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Passing the act</strong> is the US attempt to disrupt the People's Republic of China's governance over Hong Kong, weaken the HKSAR government, and compel the police to be afraid of cracking down on radical rioters in accordance with the law.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US is hoping that Hong Kong</strong> falls into disorder for a long time.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'If we take this US bill seriously</strong> and shrink from tackling riots, Hong Kong will suffer from an accelerated collapse of the rule of law and be erased from the modern world.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7r0S36?track_p_id=cbMNmBnezz2SH6baA0s_xrh" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/JP1QmQOh6Yp6KRdpIktROki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7r0S36?track_p_id=06baA0s_yfs1WLPTzjafg6c" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China 2019: Economic Development &amp; Issues</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">International Monetary Fund</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5dd468442b860700fcd532e8_1105china2019artiv-nov-2019wonotes.pdf" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong>the 28-page PPT – lots of terrific charts</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth was slowing even before the trade tensions led by financial regulatory tightening which hit hard lending to private and smaller firms.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China's Economy: Key Points</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth was slowing</strong> even before the trade tensions led by financial regulatory tightening which hit hard lending to private and smaller firms.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trade tensions with the U.S.</strong> have slowed markedly merchandise trade.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China trade slowdown</strong> is broad-based, led by the U.S.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘External tensions</strong> have put the exchange rate under pressure, but reserves remain adequate with few indications of large scale FXI.’’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Vulnerabilities in the financial</strong> sector remain elevated amid takeover of small banks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Inflation pressures</strong> remain contained, reflecting slowing growth.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In response,</strong> fiscal and monetary policies have eased while financial policies remain tight and structural reforms continued.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Escalating trade tensions</strong> have dampened the near-term growth outlook as growth over the medium-term is expected to moderate.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The IMF report is filled</strong> with terrific charts. Here's just one.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/EUS0VQpjorYMYsuNEU1I6Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/89AmNE?track_p_id=2Ke85O1La_oqnELUpAtqjRc" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/89AmNE?track_p_id=1185O1La_bEas2UgVSoVUbX" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Undermining Hong Kong Courts Is Bad for Business</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Should confidence in Hong Kong’s distinct legal identity disappear, the city risks a deeper downward spiral.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hong Kong’s High Court</strong> demonstrated that independence on Monday, ruling against a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-court-rules-mask-ban-is-unconstitutional-11574057107?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">controversial ban on wearing masks&nbsp;</a>at public gatherings that was meant to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-protesters-trapped-in-university-standoff-please-let-my-daughter-go-11574074401?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">curb escalating street protests</a>.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Tuesday morning,</strong> however, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency released a statement from China’s legislature saying the court’s judgment impaired the Hong Kong chief executive’s rights and only the National People’s Congress could decide whether Hong Kong laws were constitutional.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s statement imperils</strong> Hong Kong’s rule of law, which underpins the territory’s economy and which the territory’s citizens hold dear.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Beijing follows</strong> through on its threat, it would at a stroke end Hong Kong’s autonomy under “one country, two systems” decades before the territory is due to return to full Chinese sovereignty in 2047.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would be an even starker erosion of rights</strong> than what Hong Kongers feared when they started protesting an extradition law that would have deferred to the mainland’s legal system.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The implications</strong> are obvious.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such a move</strong> would probably make businesses more wary about investing,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-protests-wont-derail-alibabas-13-billion-listing-11574074271?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">listing or transacting in the city</a>.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It could also damage confidence</strong> in the security of intellectual property and the free movement of people and capital—especially if tensions between the U.S. and China escalate.’’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Should confidence</strong> in Hong Kong’s distinct legal identity disappear, the city risks a deeper downward spiral—with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kong-is-uniquechina-needs-it-to-stay-that-way-11568026657?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">collateral damage&nbsp;</a>for mainland China’s own prosperity and financial stability.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8RL6hM?track_p_id=enPOh1jeJDVFVIv93RpeQ_i" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/In7ukbo0ORgPwJVUJlTYOUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8RL6hM?track_p_id=5jKaF493RpeQ_2U4kzQirb4" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Interim Report:&nbsp;National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without a reversal of current trends, in the coming decade the United States could lose its status as the primary base for global AI research, development, and application.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence</strong> in an independent entity created by Congress in 2018.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt</strong> and former US Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work are the co-chairs</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As part of its mandate,</strong> the Commission has presented to Congress an excellent <a href="https://www.epic.org/foia/epic-v-ai-commission/AI-Commission-Interim-Report-Nov-2019.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">96-page interim report</a>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here are some</strong> of the comments about China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China, our most serious strategic competitor,</strong> has declared its intent to become the world leader in AI by 2030 as part of a broader strategy that will challenge America’s military and economic position in Asia and beyond.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here are three of five highlighted ‘trends</strong> in AI across economic and security fronts could lead to an AI future disadvantageous to American interests. Consider’:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Research and Development’:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has overseen</strong> a 30 times increase in its overall R&amp;D funding from 1991 to 2015, and is projected to surpass the United States in absolute R&amp;D spending within 10 years.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. federal investment</strong> in AI R&amp;D has increased only marginally.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Incrementalism</strong> will not assure U.S. leadership.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Commercial Competition’:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese tech firms</strong> have reached enormous scale and are poised to become leaders in applied AI, excelling in numerous commercial AI applications, including in healthcare, education, and e-commerce. Some of these applications may pose national security risks.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s new “national team”</strong> of leading Chinese tech firms (including Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, iFlytek, and Sensetime) is being harnessed to promote national objectives in AI, including by supporting national laboratories working on deep learning, brain-inspired intelligence, and virtual/augmented reality.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The global reach and sophistication</strong> of these companies may soon eclipse American counterparts, giving Chinese firms access to the data, resources, and market power required to lead in AI.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Global Talent’:</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> is facing new competition for global STEM talent, especially in AI where there is a critical shortage of expertise.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is undertaking</strong> an active effort to recruit global AI talent and persuade Chinese nationals working abroad to return to China.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other countries</strong> are introducing favorable immigration and work policies to attract AI talent.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are beginning</strong> to see troublesome signs that America’s ability to attract and keep the top global talent may be weakening.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without a reversal of current trends,</strong> in the coming decade the United States could lose its status as the primary base for global AI research, development, and application.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If technological advances and AI adoption elsewhere</strong> outpace those in American firms and in the U.S. government, the resulting disadvantage to the United States could endanger U.S. national security and global stability.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">3. ‘Below the Radar’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8jVR1U?track_p_id=6EcNJsP6VGrPy_J2OYuAT26" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/PnEbusQOXTxAnj8QM23FKki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8jVR1U?track_p_id=4RHjd6VGrPy_JPdQufZYPf3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">In Need of Direction: The Case for Moving Supply Chains Out of China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">War on the Rocks</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Derek Scissors</strong> | American Enterprise Institute</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Without the United States, China does not have the money.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Is it a good idea</strong> for governments to interfere with supply chains?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Multiple parts of the U.S. government</strong> certainly believe so and are seeking to expand&nbsp;the current&nbsp;trade dispute with China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are sound reasons</strong> why some supply chains that include America should not include China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And even if ongoing bilateral talks</strong> achieve limited success, Washington is likely to continue in some form to try to displace certain supply chains.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are two rationales</strong> supporting this course of action.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The first is financial</strong> and the second technological.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the financial front,</strong> from spring 2014 to fall 2019, China earned approximately $1.6 trillion net from goods and services trade with the United States.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While not all of that</strong> came through supply chains, the biggest component in bilateral trade is consumer electronics, which is dominated by trans-Pacific supply chains (there are others as well).’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite this,</strong> official Chinese foreign exchange reserves fell by $850 billion during the period.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> is thereby providing the hard currency necessary to fund Chinese initiatives ranging from&nbsp;<a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-07/24/c_138251826.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Belt and Road construction in</a> strategic locations to acquisition of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.adnoc.ae/en/news-and-media/press-releases/2017/adnoc-awards-china-national-petroleum-corporation-stake-in-adco-onshore-concession" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">major foreign assets</a>.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Without the United States,</strong> China does not have the money.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the technological front,</strong> it is well known that a major aspect of Beijing’s leverage over American technology companies is the size of its domestic market. Market size is primarily determined by Chinese policy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There is, however, another element:</strong> the location of the assembly end of very large-scale supply chains that ultimately sell back to the United States.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the latter were to shift,</strong> outright Chinese pressure on American firms to transfer dual-use technology in exchange for the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201909/03/WS5d6da499a310cf3e355694a7.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">privilege of operating in China would</a> be considerably less effective.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Physical relocation</strong> would also impinge on more subtle methods of acquiring sensitive technology, such as offers to form joint ventures outside supply chain cooperation and extensive contact among technical personnel.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;"> ‘Explainers’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/91flLc?track_p_id=1B86Y4A2_pKYW5jquDaEuQf" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/c_SiTkiGen_SsT6cnw5F6Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/91flLc?track_p_id=aodedj3DhOm86Y4A2_nDQSf" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How China’s actions in the South China Sea undermine the rule of law</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Brookings</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/FP_20191118_china_scs_law_kuok.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Read</a>&nbsp;the 15-page report&nbsp;</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The maritime dispute has at its roots China’s controversial nine-dash line, which made its first official appearance in a map Beijing submitted to the United Nations in 2009.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The report</strong> lays out well the range of disputes in the South China Sea.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here's</strong> just the context.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The South China Sea dispute</strong> concerns competing territorial and maritime claims. Four groups of geographic features in the South China Sea are contested: the Pratas Islands, the Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal, and the Spratly Islands.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The greatest source of tensions</strong> is the Spratly Islands, claimed in their entirety by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and in part by the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Paracel Islands,</strong> claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, are also hotly contested.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The maritime dispute</strong> has at its roots China’s controversial nine-dash line, which made its first official appearance in a map Beijing submitted to the United Nations in 2009.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing has never provided</strong> coordinates for the dash line, but it appears to encapsulate much of the South China Sea.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The line can be read</strong> as laying claim to everything within it or merely land features (features that are visible at high tide) and maritime zones compliant with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/UZD6VgGn4IEgrNskrjbvfzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%" a=""><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 17, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/4zfYXI?track_p_id=9aIklTlcrX4qi9Py_Nlcicb" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/A34-JXbCfNBw6jMh3VQmQEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/4zfYXI?track_p_id=cUFb%40kqdzD5in4qi9Py_ZCp" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Some Disturbing Posts</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This issue</strong> has more than the usual disturbing posts.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Two must reads</strong> in ‘Explainers.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The first is Martin Wolf’s ‘How the US should deal with China,’</strong> which critiques both the hawkish view of U.S.-China relations, and how the U.S. is managing relations overall.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet even if the US</strong> does not remain the world’s largest economy over the decades ahead, it should retain three significant assets’:</p><ol><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a law-governed democracy;’</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a free-market economy; and’</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘economically powerful allies.’</strong></li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These are sources,</strong> respectively, of admiration, dynamism and strength.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unfortunately,</strong> the US is trashing them all.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The second</strong> is Bloomberg Businessweek’s <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How Trump’s Trade War Went From Method to Madness.’</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It started with a carefully calibrated trade weapon,</strong> an algorithm that spat out a list of targets for an assault on China ordered up by a U.S. president determined to rebalance the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’The model,</strong> though, didn’t account for the unpredictability of Trump.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Twenty months later,</strong> what began as method now looks more and more like madness.’&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Next are two items</strong> highlighting the Xi regime’s press for control.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In ‘The Xinjiang Papers,’ </strong>drawing on leaked Chinese documents, the New York Times fills in the backstory on the mass incarceration and re-education of the Uighurs and other Muslims.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The methods that our comrades</strong> have at hand are too primitive,” Mr. Xi said in one talk, after inspecting a counterterrorism police squad in Urumqi.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“None of these weapons</strong> is any answer for their big machete blades, ax heads and cold steel weapons.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We must be as harsh as them,”</strong> he added, “and show absolutely no mercy.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In ‘China’s Risky Endgame in Hong Kong,’</strong> Minxin Pei analyzes Hong Kong policy coming out of the Fourth Plenum.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It seems evident</strong> that China’s leaders intend to gut the Basic Law, exercise more direct control over the appointment of key officials, weaken or eliminate Hong Kong’s judicial independence, curtail civil liberties, and suppress political dissent, including through ideological indoctrination.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> they have decided effectively to abandon the “one country, two systems” model, which Deng Xiaoping promised to uphold for 50 years after Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule in 1997.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The fourth plenum </strong>may mark the beginning of the end of Hong Kong as we know it.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> what you think. And be sure to forward to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’: The Xinjiang Papers</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5HpsrQ?track_p_id=adDf5fVAsfZ9GlrVG_wX3VA" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5HpsrQ?track_p_id=8J1ccss1Z9GlrVG_INuOaNx" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Absolutely No Mercy’: Leaked Files Expose How China Organized Mass Detentions of Muslims</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/austin-ramzy" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Austin Ramzy</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/chris-buckley" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chris Buckley</strong></a> | NYT</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘More than 400 pages of internal Chinese documents provide an unprecedented inside look at the crackdown on ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang region.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Since 2017,</strong> the authorities in Xinjiang have detained many hundreds of thousands of Uighurs, Kazakhs and other Muslims in internment camps.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Inmates undergo months or years</strong> of indoctrination and interrogation aimed at transforming them into secular and loyal supporters of the party.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The leaked papers</strong> consist of 24 documents, some of which contain duplicated material.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They include nearly 200 pages</strong> of internal speeches by Mr. Xi and other leaders, and more than 150 pages of directives and reports on the surveillance and control of the Uighur population in Xinjiang.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There are also references to plans</strong> to extend restrictions on Islam to other parts of China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Against this backdrop of bloodshed,</strong> Mr. Xi delivered a series of secret speeches setting the hard-line course that culminated in the security offensive now underway in Xinjiang.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The methods that our comrades</strong> have at hand are too primitive,” Mr. Xi said in one talk, after inspecting a counterterrorism police squad in Urumqi.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“None of these weapons</strong> is any answer for their big machete blades, ax heads and cold steel weapons.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We must be as harsh as them,”</strong> he added, “and show absolutely no mercy.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In free-flowing monologues in Xinjiang</strong> and at a subsequent leadership conference on Xinjiang policy in Beijing, Mr. Xi is recorded thinking through what he called a crucial national security issue and laying out his ideas for a “people’s war” in the region.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although he did not order mass detentions</strong> in these speeches, he called on the party to unleash the tools of “dictatorship” to eradicate radical Islam in Xinjiang.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’: Trade War &amp; Capital Markets</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5a0DBY?track_p_id=9UtqzViItJ4xEvPS_pFBKv3" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/TuSPDdJZOA8NHN-HNCvvqEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5a0DBY?track_p_id=9s%40YdyBIEz4xEvPS_3neVn%40" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2019 Annual Report | U.S.- CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘The Commission has been known for its hawkish perspective on China, but its views have come more into the mainstream</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While the Commission’s </strong>recommendations are hawkish - and influential - the <a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/2019%20Annual%20Report%20to%20Congress.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">593-page analysis</a> itself is fairly balanced and well-worth reading.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/stop-calling-chinas-xi-jinping-president-u-s-panel-says-11573740000?mod=searchresults&amp;page=4&amp;pos=9" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WSJ</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,</strong> a bipartisan commission convened by Congress, released its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/annual-report/2019-annual-report-0?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">annual report</a>&nbsp; Thursday, November 14.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Commission</strong> has been known for its hawkish perspective on China, but its views have come more into the mainstream as the Trump administration and both parties in Congress increasingly take harder lines toward Beijing.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> for example, the commission’s report warned that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-panel-warns-china-tech-prowess-threatens-u-s-security-1542171601?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Chinese dominance of networking-equipment manufacturing threatened</a> the security of U.S. fifth-generation, or 5G, wireless infrastructure.'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Since then,</strong> regulators have put restrictions on the telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co., calling it a national security threat, which the company denies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Among the </strong><a href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/2019%20Executive%20Summary.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">38 recommendations</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> to Congress,</strong> two stood out, given the possibility of the trade war expanding to capital markets.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: 0.1em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Commission recommends:</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘4. Congress enact legislation</strong> to preclude Chinese companies from issuing securities on U.S. stock exchanges if’ [edited]:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board</strong> is denied timely access to the audit work papers relating to the company’s operations in China;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The company disclosure procedures</strong> are not consistent with best practices on U.S. and European exchanges;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘5. Congress enact legislation</strong> requiring the following information to be disclosed in all issuer initial public offering prospectuses and annual reports as material information to U.S. investors' [edited]:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial support provided by the Chinese government,</strong> including: direct subsidies, grants, loans, below-market loans, loan guarantees, tax concessions, government procurement policies, and other forms of government support.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Conditions under which that support is provided,</strong> including but not limited to: export performance, input purchases manufactured locally from specific producers or using local intellectual property, or the assignment of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or government personnel in corporate positions.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘CCP committees established within any company,</strong> including: the establishment of a company Party committee, the standing of that Party committee within the company, which corporate personnel form that committee, and what role those personnel play.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’: Hong Kong</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5sAXVg?track_p_id=5F1fQo5apC6Y_otIPaTcOQh" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Tad6xj_ebVw7qqeNRLm3H0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5sAXVg?track_p_id=05apC6Y_lRMZM6Bg%406jz5G3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s Risky Endgame in Hong Kong&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei</strong> | Claremont McKenna College</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘The fourth plenum may mark the beginning of the end of Hong Kong as we know it.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The communiqué</strong> of the recently concluded fourth plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) indicates that Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to tighten his grip on the former British colony at any cost. The communiqué includes two ominous pledges.’</p><ol><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First,</strong> China’s central government will “control and rule” (guanzhi) Hong Kong (and Macau) using “all the powers vested in [it] under the constitution and the Basic Law,” the mini-constitution that defines Hong Kong’s status.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Second,</strong> it will “build and improve a legal system and enforcement mechanism to defend national security” in both special administrative regions.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A few days after the plenum,</strong> the CPC’s plan to assert its control over Hong Kong became clearer when it released the full text of the resolution endorsed there by its Central Committee.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s central</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">government intends to change the process for appointing Hong </strong>Kong’s chief executive and key officials, and reform the system governing how the Chinese National People’s Congress Standing Committee interprets the Basic Law.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> China will support the strengthening of Hong Kong’s law-enforcement capabilities and ensure that the city government enacts legislation to enhance national security.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will also deepen Hong Kong’s economic integration</strong> with the mainland and expand “education” programs to cultivate a “national consciousness and patriotic spirit,” especially among civil servants and young people.’’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Though the details of the plan</strong> have yet to be worked out, it seems evident that China’s leaders intend to gut the Basic Law, exercise more direct control over the appointment of key officials, weaken or eliminate Hong Kong’s judicial independence, curtail civil liberties, and suppress political dissent, including through ideological indoctrination.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> they have decided effectively to abandon the “one country, two systems” model, which Deng Xiaoping promised to uphold for 50 years after Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule in 1997.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’As the CPC attempts</strong> to exert total control over Hong Kong, even larger demonstrations, marked by even more violence, are likely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The city will descend</strong> further into chaos and become ungovernable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But that may well be what China’s leaders want:</strong> an excuse to deploy security forces and impose direct control over the city.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In that sense,</strong> the fourth plenum may mark the beginning of the end of Hong Kong as we know it.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">3. ‘Below the Radar’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">3. 'Below the Radar’: 'General Secretary' Xi</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6AKrpo?track_p_id=3T%40S63vqt4_Ua3Sa1y4vkQZ" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp30i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6AKrpo?track_p_id=7j5yXIWJ63vqt4_wxin66UG" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Stop Calling China’s Xi Jinping ‘President'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'Mr. Xi should be known by his party title, general secretary, as a more accurate description of his role.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,</strong> a bipartisan commission convened by Congress, said in its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.uscc.gov/annual-report/2019-annual-report-0?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">annual report</a>&nbsp;released Thursday that everyone to stop calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping “president.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The title implies Mr. Xi</strong> is elected by a popular democratic vote and not the winner of an internal power contest in the Chinese Communist Party.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The group believes</strong> Mr. Xi should be known by his party title, general secretary, as a more accurate description of his role.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Xi’s three most important titles</strong> are party chief, head of the central military commission and head of state.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese state media</strong> often refer to him as “general secretary” or “state chairman” in Chinese. But in English, they often translate the latter title as “president.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The panel’s report</strong> comes after some U.S. policy makers have begun tweaking their language with respect to Mr. Xi.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In an Oct. 30 speech</strong> at a Hudson Institute gala in Manhattan, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a reference to “General Secretary Xi.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">3. ‘Below the Radar’: semiconductor independence</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6SVC9w?track_p_id=5MH2c398btVu_Ck1f5cOILD" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6SVC9w?track_p_id=2od98btVu_zvh6lFdPuTAJ5" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Doubles Down on Its Digital Silk Road&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic and International Studies</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘The Digital Silk Road is a key part of the overall BRI strategy.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the core focus of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)</strong> is on traditional infrastructure deployments, it is evident that the Digital Silk Road is a key part of the overall BRI strategy, and China will leverage technology to increase its influence along the route.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">’Opportunities exist</strong> in the deployment of telecoms infrastructure, data centers, and smart cities.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Technology security concerns</strong> will be a major hurdle for Chinese vendors as they move to deepen and widen the BRI’s technology footprint.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Digital Silk Road</strong> has become the focal point of the BRI as controlling the flow of data becomes increasingly important for shifting the balance of geopolitical power in China’s favor.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government</strong> has sought to build out telecoms infrastructure across BRI member/partner states by championing local technology companies and leveraging state-owned banks to fund construction projects.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Besides the “Digital Silk Road”</strong> and its networks of new fiber-optic cables, China has also launched a “Spatial Information Corridor,” consisting of Chinese-backed systems of communications, positioning, and observation satellites.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese enterprises,</strong> which were already present in most markets along BRI routes, have jumped at the opportunity to accelerate their expansion plans, boosted by additional state support.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The deployment of infrastructure</strong> along the BRI largely excludes U.S. technology, which also raises U.S. concerns about the surveillance of data traffic and the risk of potential interception of critical financial and security information.’’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese technology companies</strong> are already highly adept at using artificial intelligence (AI) to power both their internal business processes and, particularly in the case of media-centric players such as Tencent and Baidu, their relationships with customers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The data gathered</strong> from both partners and consumers will give Chinese players even more power to influence BRI markets.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/8yywsbAxZh8kZBZfAhpZUjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;"> ‘Explainers’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">‘Explainer’: U.S.-China Relations</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6kfWU4?track_p_id=2r15S1d4Y_VJgB4V313%40QyQ" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6kfWU4?track_p_id=2rd5S1d4Y_n6vrP2vOq1ckP" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How the US should deal with China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Martin Wolf</strong> | FT</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">What, short of war, could the US do to stop it? The answer is: not much.&nbsp;</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In past issues,</strong> we have highlighted the hawkish China views of Mike Pillsbury and others.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this essay</strong>, Martin Wolf presents an analysis of Mr. Pillsbury's stance and an overall critique of U.S. policy toward China. A must read.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My thanks</strong> to good friend Pieter Bottelier for pointing it out to me.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“It’s easy to win a race</strong> when you’re the only one who knows it has begun.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“China is thus</strong> on the way to supplanting the US as the global hegemon, creating a different world as a result. Yet it doesn’t have to end this way.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This anxious view</strong> comes from <a href="https://thehundredyearmarathon.com/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><em style="font-style: italic">The Hundred-Year Marathon</em></a> by the Hudson Institute’s Michael Pillsbury. Mr Pillsbury is one of the most influential American thinkers on US-China relations.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">The book</strong> is more than a call to recognise reality: it is a call to arms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On one central point</strong> Mr Pillsbury is certainly right: "China’s rise is the great political event of our times.’’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Getting the response</strong> right is crucial. It is so easy to get it wrong.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today, I fear,</strong> the US is getting it frighteningly wrong.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet even if the US</strong> does not remain the world’s largest economy over the decades ahead, it should retain three significant assets’:</p><ol><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a law-governed democracy;’</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a free-market economy; and’</strong></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘economically powerful allies.’</strong></li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These are sources,</strong> respectively, of admiration, dynamism and strength. Unfortunately, the US is trashing them all.’</p><ol><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Donald Trump</strong> seems ignorant of what a liberal democracy is.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US economy</strong> is slowly morphing into rentier capitalism. [“Rentier capitalism” means an economy in which market and political power allows privileged individuals and businesses to extract a great deal of such rent from everybody else.]’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has also become</strong> an unreliable and even outright hostile ally — ask the Germans.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The last might be</strong> the biggest blunder of all.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For military strength,</strong> the US has in truth to rely mainly upon itself.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in economic policy </strong>or human rights, it does not.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US’s allies bring</strong> enormous extra weight to the table (unlike Russia, China’s only potent ally).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Take trade:</strong> China’s exports to close US allies far exceed those to America alone.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many of those allies</strong> also share US concerns over market access, poor protection of intellectual property and China’s demand to be treated as a developing country.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the US has thrown away</strong> the leverage its allies could have given it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If it had promoted a</strong> negotiation with China inside the World Trade Organization on these issues, in concert with its allies, it would have enjoyed both more leverage and the moral high ground.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/MG-X4ALrIEOrJWNEEioO-Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">‘Explainer’: Trump's Trade War</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-top:2px;margin-left: 20px;border: 1px solid #ddd;border-radius:10%;box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/72pqoC?track_p_id=04qNYsg_YqH6VlBgctWd6Kq" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/72pqoC?track_p_id=04qNYsg_U63%403KXV%40L5WQBc" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">How Trump’s Trade War Went From Method to Madness&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg Businessweek</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0.8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: 0.6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘Twenty months later, what began as method now looks more and more like madness.’&nbsp;</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Inside the president’s shift</strong> from a grand bargain with China to a small deal.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg Businessweek</strong> has produced one of the best - and scariest -histories of how the Trump administration has managed the trade war. Another must read.</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">_____________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It started with a carefully calibrated trade weapon,</strong> an algorithm that spat out a list of targets for an assault on China ordered up by a U.S. president determined to rebalance the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The algorithm produced</strong> a&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/List%201.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">28-page list</a> of Chinese-made products, whose total value—$34 billion—matched an estimate of the annual cost to U.S. businesses of Chinese intellectual-property theft and forced technology transfers.’’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The goal:</strong> building leverage for negotiations aimed at forcing wholesale changes in China’s economic architecture while limiting the pain to businesses and consumers at home.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’The model,</strong> though, didn’t account for the unpredictability of Trump.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Behind closed doors</strong>, the president took the modest number—equal to 7% of the $505 billion in goods the U.S. imported from China in 2017—almost as an affront. He didn’t want moderate or appropriate.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He grumbled to aides</strong> the figure was too low and demanded it be rounded up to at least $50 billion.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump also asked his staff,</strong> almost as an aside: “Do you think I should put tariffs on everything from China?”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Twenty months later,</strong> what began as method now looks more and more like madness.’&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/OQ7P870KxNw4byiN9yHYRzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%" a=""><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 13, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7szdxY?track_p_id=abyYfwLJ1vY5j4P1S_qO4Ni" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/A34-JXbCfNBw6jMh3VQmQEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7szdxY?track_p_id=4F%40oF5j4P1S_tlLm4gFQUxn" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A More Helpful Division of Posts</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So far I have divided</strong> 'China Macro Reporter' posts into ‘Editor’s Picks’ and ‘More Insights.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But really</strong> all posts are Editor’s picks.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I read, watch, and listen to</strong> 100s of items to select the few that go into the newsletter.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So each post</strong> is indeed an Editor’s Pick.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Today I am trying</strong> a new way to divide the posts. The aim is to put the posts into contexts that might be more helpful to you.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here’s</strong> the new<strong style="font-weight: bold"> 4-part</strong> division:</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</strong> posts promote your understanding of current issues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’</strong> posts provide you early warnings of issues that might be soon important.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘Below the Radar’ </strong>posts give you heads ups on the issues that might rise to importance.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, the fourth part, ‘Explainers’ </strong>posts aim to give you the deep background you need to understand China and China-related issues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> if you find this new division helpful.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And be sure to forward</strong> the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">1. ‘Front &amp; Center’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">1. 'Front &amp; Center': TRADE WAR IMPACT</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8B9yHg?track_p_id=75rXHuKX4o7M0E_3KaJSeVX" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8B9yHg?track_p_id=cj2rVQFbGDxxN4o7M0E_icq" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">US-China trade tensions force gaps in stock prices</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The rise in tensions</strong> between the US and China since the start of last year has opened up a performance gap between companies exposed to the conflict and those that are not.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Exposed stocks</strong> are 2 per cent lower than they were before US president Donald Trump began to ramp up trade tensions in early 2018, the IMF calculated.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By contrast,</strong> the rest of the market is up by 8 per cent.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Companies</strong> in the automobile, metals, tech and telecoms sectors have been hit hardest.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/C65f13jlpNRAtoK_LaUp7Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:20px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">1. 'Front &amp; Center': SEMICONDUCTOR INDEPENDENCE</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TKIbo?track_p_id=a5mLp6WVtSr8rEsCk_6h%40bJ" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8TKIbo?track_p_id=ad3huEZBbYX8rEsCk_G6hD5" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Cutting off Arm: China leads exodus from top chip architect</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Building up China’s ability</strong> to develop and manufacture its own semiconductors is a key goal of the government’s “Made in China 2025” strategy issued in 2015.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the trade war</strong> with the US that has seen bans on chip exports to big Chinese companies has added new urgency to the effort.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Made in China 2025</strong> sets self-sufficiency goals for semiconductors at 40 per cent for 2020 and 70 per cent for 2025.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China</strong> had reached just 15 per cent for semiconductors in 2018, putting the targets in question.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“While US pressure</strong> may affect the operations of companies such as Huawei Technologies in the short run, on a medium to long-term basis, Chinese manufacturers will increase procurement from within China, and it will result in the growth of domestic equipment and materials makers,” said Lung Chu, president of industry association SEMI China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Focus. ‘China is stepping up</strong> its efforts to break its dependence on chips based on proprietary technology from SoftBank Group-owned processor designer Arm, employing open-source alternatives to bolster its self-sufficiency and resilience against US trade war retaliation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ecommerce group Alibaba’s Pingtouge Semiconductor</strong> is at the leading edge of the move away from Arm, which has become the de facto global standard for processors in mobile devices.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In July, Pingtouge unveiled the XuanTie 910</strong>, a processor that will power technology for the “internet of things” and 5G communications.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The XuanTie 910</strong> employs RISC-V, an open-source instruction set architecture based on a project begun in 2010 at the University of California, Berkeley.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">1. 'Front &amp; Center': 'SINGLE'S DAY' &amp; ECOMMERCE</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8lUcvw?track_p_id=3gNJ7UfEac_4IP6LtwPcobT" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/aAnPTLzZf0sVHGSukmEafEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8lUcvw?track_p_id=2Mv7UfEac_KdPB4g6HRQwba" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Charts of the Day: E-Commerce Sites Book Mixed Performance for ‘Double 11’</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Caixin</strong></h3><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here's a quick follow up </strong>to the pre-Single's Day post in the last issue.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s largest online retailer,</strong> New York-listed<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</strong>, and its rival&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">JD.com Inc.</strong>, released their gross merchandise volume (GMV) figures for the day at midnight Monday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Alibaba</strong> — the company that turned 11.11 into “Double 11” — total GMV across its suite of online platforms via affiliated payment service Alipay grew 25.7%, down from 27% growth last year, to a record of 268.4 billion yuan ($38.3 billion).’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘JD.com,</strong> China’s second-biggest online retailer and Alibaba’s biggest rival, reported slightly faster GMV growth than for 2018, at a rate of 27.9%, to a total of 204.4 billion yuan. JD.com only began releasing GMV data in 2017, and counts things differently from Alibaba as the companies use different promotional gimmicks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/eqJiABxgbenbCRdcG7fstzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/Jcpm_3LjWQRvh80Cd5mwrzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">‘Keep an Eye On’: CHINA EXPORTING DEFLATION</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/93exG4?track_p_id=eEkHBE5dtaWWdbM6HxhqI_2" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/93exG4?track_p_id=cxdJErYyUahkE6HxhqI_rQq" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Factories Are Exporting Lower Prices Around the World&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese factories are again threatening to drag down prices around the world</strong> as the cost of their goods decline by the most since 2016.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a fresh </strong>challenge to the ability of global central banks to revive inflation, China’s slowest growth in almost three decades and cheaper energy costs have left manufacturing prices declining since July.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> those savings haven’t boost companies’ margins as demand isn’t strong and there’s plenty of excess capacity, so manufacturers have also cut asking prices.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While cheaper goods</strong> may be a boon to foreign consumers as Christmas nears, the overall effect is a potential spiral of falling prices worldwide as companies everywhere are forced to compete with Chinese rivals to protect profits.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Similar to what happened</strong> in 2014-2016, a flow of cheaper goods from China will make it harder for central banks elsewhere to generate sustained inflation.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consumer prices</strong> in Japan, Germany and the U.S. are already below their inflation targets of around 2% a year, and further declines in the price of imports and manufactures will only make it harder to reach those goals.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“China’s PPI deflation</strong> is a result of both weak commodity prices and weak domestic demand,” according to Chi Lo, Greater China economist at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “The China factor is disinflationary at this point but not deflationary.”</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><hr style="margin:5px; border-width:1px; border-color:transparent;border-top:0px;border-style:solid;"></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">2. 'Keep an Eye On': CHINA DEBT</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/9LpHaC?track_p_id=168IFGKE_hIOyoUptnRaHLx" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/v8fCLZ9JkH8XlsPhvCIB_0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/9LpHaC?track_p_id=6vBJS%40X8IFGKE_vhyv6wCAw" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China 2020 – A Better Year Ahead</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Development Bank of Singapore</strong>&nbsp;</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China appears</strong> to be far from the “Minsky Moment.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Note: ‘A Minsky Moment</strong> is a sudden collapse of asset prices after a long period of growth, sparked by debt or currency pressures.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s absolute total debt level </strong>reached 303% of GDP at 1Q19.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The main assets</strong> of Chinese banks are loans to households and SOEs.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Household balance sheets</strong> are still lowly leveraged.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mortgages made up</strong> of 21.4% of total outstanding loans as of 3Q19.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Corporate loans</strong> represent a whopping 60% of total loans in 2019.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to</strong> earlier Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), around 15.5% of total loans extended to corporates are potentially at risk.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The total</strong> is around USD1.3tn, compared to about USD1.7tn in bank Tier-1 capital.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This asset class</strong> is the China’s Achilles’ heel.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the state owns</strong> both enterprises and the banks, and it has enormous political power to keep them afloat regardless of their financial health.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Also bank deposits</strong> amounted to RMB196tn should provide adequate cushion to any unforeseen shocks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The costs of sustaining them</strong> however compromises the effectiveness of monetary policy to buttress the real economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Subsequent increase</strong> in liquidity is used to service interest payments on old debts.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Also rising credit risks</strong> negate downward pressure on interest rates.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/T55CXvLwW6NoJd0yGvS-gzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">2. 'Keep an Eye On': THE GREAT DECOUPLING</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/4ySlEW?track_p_id=9AkhXwjRKZ7rr7KI_swU4rn" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/qEkV02U-QW3pdvCJaMF2VUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/4ySlEW?track_p_id=2jK7rr7KI_twLKBXYZ5J6MO" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Francis Fukuyama, 30 years on: Is the world turning Chinese?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><p style="text-align: right;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nikkei Asian Review</strong></p><p style="text-align: right;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Francis Fukuyama</strong>&nbsp;</p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Stanford &amp; author of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><em style="font-style: italic">The End of History and the Last Man</em></a>&nbsp;</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I think that what is inevitable</strong> is that the Chinese and Western economies will start to decouple to some extent.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"The old relationship"</strong> of having all supply chains in China "is not a safe position to be in, to be that dependent on China."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"China could invade Taiwan.</strong> You could have a big blowup in the South China Sea. There could be lots of scenarios in which you're going to be in open conflict with China.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"I think the likelihood</strong> that there will actually be overt conflict in Asia is much higher than a lot of people imagine it.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“And if you're that deeply enmeshed </strong>with them economically, that's strategically a liability."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;“The biggest risk</strong> is actually Taiwan right now.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Unfortunately,</strong> Taiwan has done very little to defend itself, and the American commitment to Taiwan is one that I would question if I were either in Beijing or in Taipei."</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"So I think</strong> there is a real danger there."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><hr style="margin:5px; border-width:1px; border-color:transparent;border-top:0px;border-style:solid;"></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">2. ‘Keep an Eye On’: OPENING UP TO FOREIGN CAPITAL</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Gd5Ye?track_p_id=5TSrfg9JHqQg_SsDirWzoXm" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Gd5Ye?track_p_id=119JHqQg_VrSG13X6POUt2S" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opening up to foreign capital would be a mixed blessing for China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael Pettis</strong>&nbsp;</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Peking University &amp; the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There have been</strong> a ‘string of recent measures to open up China’s financial markets to foreign portfolio capital.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But while this</strong> may boost domestic liquidity and prices, it does so at the cost of undermining banking stability and increasing Chinese susceptibility to financial disruptions from abroad.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On paper the Chinese banking system</strong> may seem extremely vulnerable to such a breakdown, but, in fact, as long as Chinese financial markets were largely closed, and the regulators all-powerful, a financial crisis was unlikely.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s regulators</strong> can restructure liabilities at will, effectively eliminating what might otherwise seem like dangerous asset-liability mismatches.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We saw how this works</strong> in the interventions this summer in Baoshang Bank, Bank of Jinzhou and Heng Feng Bank, for example, when larger, well-capitalised financial institutions were forced to absorb their losses and extend their liabilities.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But once China opens up</strong> its domestic financial markets to international capital flows, maintaining stability in this way will become far more difficult.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is one thing</strong> for Beijing to protect Chinese investors by ordering a major Beijing bank to inject capital into Bank of Jinzhou and take over its operations.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is another thing</strong> altogether to control or protect foreign investors and financial institutions.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What is worse,</strong> much of the foreign capital will be highly speculative and subject to investment fads.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as the foreign capital share</strong> in China stays small, these new measures may temporarily boost liquidity and prices.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if foreigners</strong> become significant players in Chinese stocks and bonds, they will inevitably increase China’s financial vulnerability.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">3. ‘Below the Radar’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">3. 'Below the Radar': RISK OF POPULAR UNREST</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5YnPsm?track_p_id=3V4J90K2Mo_oIt2qwb1PHUS" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Tad6xj_ebVw7qqeNRLm3H0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5YnPsm?track_p_id=c3UHxdUSt3GgI90K2Mo_Pyc" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Will China Confront a Revolution of Rising Expectations?&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Barry Eichengreen</strong> | University of California, Berkeley,</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Missing from the usual line-up</strong> of China’s challenges - is the most worrying scenario of all: popular unrest.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Skeptics contend</strong> that widespread protest against the regime and its policies is unlikely.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">[<strong style="font-weight: bold">Note: throughout China</strong> there are up to 180,000 (depending on who is counting and when) protests and demonstrations each year, mostly aimed at local level officials, and they don’t threaten Party rule.]</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Politburo</strong> continues to deliver improvements in living standards – and its security apparatus is formidable.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consider protests</strong> in France, the Yellow Vests; &nbsp;in Ecuador, in Chile; and, of course, is Hong Kong.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These movements</strong> are revolutions of rising expectations.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They are protests</strong> not so much over a deteriorating quality of life as over government’s failure to deliver everything that was promised.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is not as if</strong> Chinese people lack grievances.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They complain</strong> about regional inequality, especially if they live in the impoverished west.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If they farm on land</strong> abutting urban development, they are concerned about property rights.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Members of the “</strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-middleclass/chinas-ant-tribe-poses-policy-challenge-for-beijing-idUSTRE61H01220100218" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ant Tribe</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">”</strong> – recent university graduates who can’t find jobs matching their academic credentials.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On top of this</strong> are broader concerns about housing prices, especially in China’s first-tier cities.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘People similarly</strong> have concerns about the quality of health care and other social services.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If unrest does,</strong> in fact, break out at some point in the future, GDP growth would suffer.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">Explainers</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff; border-top:1px solid #c80000;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#fff; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:10px 0 10px 20px; border-bottom:1px solid #efefef; text-align:left; font-size: 1.175em; font-weight:700; color: #c80000; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; font-style:italic;text-transform: capitalize;">‘Explainer’: TRUMP CHINA POLICY</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5qxkCu?track_p_id=8nCGnIVjr7zUuas_ySz1U33" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/CR-ApauK-9CAi7DFNjVVBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5qxkCu?track_p_id=7xXNVqky7zUuas_RcbugVKn" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Realignment' Dr. Peter Navarro</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hudson Institute</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peter Navarro</strong>&nbsp;</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">Director of the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.hudson.org/research/15449-the-realignment-ep-14-dr-peter-navarro" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a>&nbsp;the video interview (34m)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Peter Navarro</strong> is one of the China Hawks in the Trump administration. His and other hawks’ views some to be gaining some traction.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">______________________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">I think that President Trump </strong>has a just done a historic job. The history books will note this is one of his finest achievements that he changed the narrative forever on China. There isn’t any turning back on that.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Part of the reason</strong> is that people understand it now.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But also part of the reason</strong> is the Chinese don't seem to have any intention of moving in a better direction.’’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They just double and triple down</strong> on everything they're doing right now, whether it's Orwellian control of their people through social credit scores, concentration camps in Xinjiang, artificial militarized islands in the South China sea, the battle between freedom and democracy in Hong Kong versus authoritarianism. They’re double, triple and quadrupling.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So I think</strong> that's going to be with us and that the bipartisan basis will stand up now.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Never underestimate</strong> the power of Wall Street and the multinationals and the free traders to challenge that. I was aghast just a couple of weeks ago at a letter in the Washington Post <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/making-china-a-us-enemy-is-counterproductive/2019/07/02/647d49d0-9bfa-11e9-b27f-ed2942f73d70_story.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">[‘China is Not an Enemy’]</a> – these economists came out, Nobel laureates, saying we're too tough on China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">Those guys</strong> need to get out a little bit more. Listen to the Pompeo speech or the Pence speech, get a little broader view.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘I thought</strong> that letter was just ignorant treason in a way; they don't even know they're treasonous. But talk like that is just silly.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 20px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%" a=""><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 9, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/66rHUW?track_p_id=bxdDYHKGuRnK5j4P1S_6Pwh" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/A34-JXbCfNBw6jMh3VQmQEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/66rHUW?track_p_id=5AZ4Y55j4P1S_VGYpvd2ZKi" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Opening Statement</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong>&nbsp;</h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Monday is ‘Singles’ Day,’</strong> ‘the biggest online sales event in the world, outstripping the sales of U.S. shopping holidays Black Friday and Cyber Monday. ‘ Why ‘Singles’ Day?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Chinese university campuses</strong> in the 1990s, 11/11 evolved into a celebration of being single in a culture where young people face heavy parental pressure to get married -- an antidote to Valentine’s Day.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘When Nov. 11 is written numerically -- 11/11</strong> -- the four digits evoke “bare branches,” the Chinese expression for the unattached. ‘</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the midst of the shopping spree,</strong> the Phase 1 trade deal is still up in the air, with President Trump saying it might not be concluded until next year. That would no doubt mean that the December tariffs would be implemented. As the Peterson Institute for International Economics points out, that could be bad:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The December tariff round</strong> would largely hit products designed and marketed by multinational firms, mostly with components from the United States and its allies,and assembled in non-Chinese-owned factories.'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The sectors</strong> that are going to feel the full brunt of the Trump administration’s trade war are <strong style="font-weight: bold">dominated by US-based companies</strong> dependent on parts and components made through global value chains.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While seeking to punish</strong> Chinese behavior, these tariffs will harm and handicap US-based activity.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More broadly,</strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">keep an eye</strong></ins></span>&nbsp;on Xi Jinping’s rural revitalization policies. Urbanization drove much of China’s previous growth.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With that more or less played out, ‘it is rural China,</strong> with its over half a billion residents, that is now becoming the key engine of China’s next great transformation.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi Jinping’s administration</strong> has made China’s rural economy a priority, focusing on overall economic growth, food security and social stability.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We’ll be following this closely </strong>and giving you more background.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Among other policy moves,</strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">watch</strong></ins></span>&nbsp;policies toward small banks.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese authorities</strong> are considering a sweeping package of measures to shore up smaller lenders, escalating efforts to contain one of the biggest risks facing the world’s largest banking system.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Important for China </strong>– and the world’s – financial health.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All this and more</strong> in today’s <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong>. Be sure to forward to friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;">Editor's Pick</span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center;">Singles' Day</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6P1boe?track_p_id=9RGfeBAiVf5dK1de_3i2OhB" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/zI_zZwx1qGnVzF_u84-YLEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6P1boe?track_p_id=d6FYpuEYYlQzbI5dK1de_Cx" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">A look at Alibaba’s Singles’ Day, the world’s largest online retail event</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Reuters Graphics</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;‘In just over a decade Alibaba turned Singles’ Day, a quirky celebration of Chinese singlehood, into the world’s biggest shopping event, drawing in hundreds of millions of people across the globe.'</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Singles’ Day, also known as “Double 11”,</strong> is the biggest online sales event in the world, outstripping the sales of U.S. shopping holidays Black Friday and Cyber Monday. ‘</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> the massive 24-hour shopping frenzy generated a record $30.8 billion in total sales.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese event</strong> was originally a novelty student holiday to celebrate being single, countering Valentine’s Day, but has since grown into a month-long online shopping festival that peaks with a 24-hour sale on November 11.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first-ever “Double 11”</strong> sales launched in 2009, offering discounts on Alibaba’s marketplaces where only 27 brands participated.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last year,</strong> the company said it worked with 180,000 brands across over 200 countries.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This year</strong> will be the 11th “Double 11” festival, with more than 200,000 brands participating, one million new products on offer and over 500 million users are expected to participate — about 100 million more than last year.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">[</strong>from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-07/how-singles-day-became-biggest-shopping-spree-ever-quicktake" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How Singles’ Day Became Biggest Shopping Spree Ever,’</strong></a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">Bloomberg]</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In just over a decade</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BABA:US" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</a> turned Singles’ Day, a quirky celebration of Chinese singlehood, into the world’s biggest shopping event, drawing in hundreds of millions of people across the globe.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This year’s extravaganza,</strong> which features mega-star Taylor Swift, will be closely watched by investors keen to gauge how willing Chinese consumers are to spend as economic growth threatens to slip&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/Q0GWHY6K50XW" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">below 6%</a>, and U.S.-China trade tensions drag on.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s also the first time</strong> up-and-coming Alibaba executive Jiang Fan will oversee the&nbsp;event, after billionaire co-founder Jack Ma stepped down as chairman in September.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why is it called Singles’ Day?’</strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When Nov. 11 is written numerically -- 11/11</strong> -- the four digits evoke “bare branches,” the Chinese expression for the unattached. ‘</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Chinese university campuses</strong> in the 1990s, 11/11 evolved into a celebration of being single in a culture where young people face heavy parental pressure to get married -- an antidote to Valentine’s Day.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country’s rising middle class</strong> turned that into a phenomenon.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/wxmzJ18wwg5RNyDvfJoEjzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;">Editor's Pick</span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center;">Tariffs</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hBw8m?track_p_id=abmj%40XLWYNp7KTMKc_Vy3K3" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/GbdmYZyNd16p_Ud5yAVw5Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6hBw8m?track_p_id=07KTMKc_%40ChoJ323JM%40DUm3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">They Saved the Worst for Last: Why Trump's Impending December Tariffs on China Should Be Rolled Back</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘The December tariff round would largely hit products designed and marketed by multinational firms, mostly with components from the United States and its allies, and assembled in non-Chinese-owned factories.'</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The December tariff round</strong> would largely hit products designed and marketed by multinational firms, mostly with components from the United States and its allies, and assembled in non-Chinese-owned factories.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The sectors</strong> that are going to feel the full brunt of the Trump administration’s trade war are <strong style="font-weight: bold">dominated by US-based companies</strong> dependent on parts and components made through global value chains.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While seeking to punish</strong> Chinese behavior, these tariffs will harm and handicap US-based activity.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The combined September and December tariffs</strong> will result in new taxes on 92.5 percent of apparel and accessories imports from China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Also the broad coverage</strong> (88.2 percent) of imports is classified as <strong style="font-weight: bold">miscellaneous manufacturing (which includes toys).’</strong></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These new tariff rounds</strong> would impose tariffs on an additional 63.5 percent of computer and electronic products imported from China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Figure 1 column 2, below,</strong> shows that the September 1, 2019 tariff round covers most imports of apparel and accessories and a little more than a quarter of miscellaneous manufactured commodities.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The December tariffs</strong> will land squarely on miscellaneous manufacturing and computer and electronic devices.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These targeted imports</strong> are primarily from foreign affiliates operating in China, and to an extent greater than suggested by averages for all imports in these sectors.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Figure 2, below, shows</strong> that imports in the two sectors hit hardest by the December tariffs are shipped mostly from multinational-owned factories.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Indeed,</strong> an estimated 95.2 percent of computer and electronic products scheduled for new tariffs in December are from multinational enterprises.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/VVd6gcV7XDk7w3UKIANo6zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-bottom:1px solid #ddd; padding-bottom:20px; margin-bottom:20px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/q6SWdicZIAemk5MU0x02gDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;">Editor's Pick</span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center;">Xi's Grand Strategy</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zMGSu?track_p_id=1297ItTi_uEhoJ1KiT3KZZR" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/FizKmw6712hr3J-3yqA5wki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zMGSu?track_p_id=097ItTi_BXfm3b5IGJcCh2e" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Make China Great Again: Xi’s Truly Grand Strategy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">War on the Rocks</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dr. Andrew S. Erickson</strong>&nbsp;</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">U.S. Naval War College &amp; Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘From their very origins, the party (established 1921) and its People’s Liberation Army (established 1927) have pursued political, security, and geostrategic goals in layers.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘At the 19th Chinese Communist Party National Congress</strong> on Oct. 18, 2017,&nbsp;Xi Jinping delivered a major speech&nbsp;in which he declared, “The Chinese nation […] has stood up, grown rich, and is becoming strong.”</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He articulated a new era</strong> with the historic mission to “realize the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For its implementation,</strong> Xi laid out a timeline with three major target dates’:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the Party Centenary in 2021,</strong> China should “finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.”</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By 2035,</strong> China should be much stronger economically and technologically, have become a “global leader in innovation,” and have completed its military modernization.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the People’s Republic of China Centenary in 2049,</strong> China should have “[r]esolv[ed] the Taiwan question” and be a “strong country” with “world-class forces.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘To understand how Xi’s grand strategy </strong>might play out, and to assess its prospects, one should consider Xi’s hierarchy of geographically-rooted national security priorities. In descending order of importance’:</p><ol><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'party leadership</strong>,’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘centralized administration</strong> of the core Han heartland,'</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘stability</strong> of ethno-religious borderlands,’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘integrity</strong> of land borders and security of coastlines,’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘resolution</strong> of near-seas sovereignty claims, and’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘safeguarding</strong> of overseas interests.’</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The party has staked its claim to </strong>power on its ability to safeguard the most important of these interests and rejuvenate China in a way that no other government could.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp; </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-top: 0px solid #f6f6f6; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">Trade Deals</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7HWan2?track_p_id=8WcVcWZZl51PWm6_f33tXs3" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/_UHXqIfFomDPTH9OMq5qfki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7HWan2?track_p_id=dW5D22WxRSxjGr51PWm6_YM" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Why Did Trade Deals Become So Unpopular?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Asia Society</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/asia-depth-podcast-why-did-trade-deals-become-so-unpopular" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Listen</strong></a>to the 37m podcast</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'Why have&nbsp;perceptions about trade changed? And where is this all leading?’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For decades,</strong> there was a bipartisan consensus in the United States that economic engagement with the emerging economies of Asia, particularly China, was mutually beneficial.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But that</strong> consensus has frayed.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘’Politicians as diverse</strong> as Senator&nbsp;Bernie Sanders&nbsp;(I-VT) and President&nbsp;Donald Trump&nbsp;have argued that previous trade deals damaged the U.S. economy and the American worker.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And while Trump's trade war</strong> with China is far from universally popular, even his critics acknowledge that the U.S. will have to fundamentally rethink its relationship with the world's second-largest economy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So why have&nbsp;perceptions</strong> about trade changed? And where is this all leading?’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In this episode of&nbsp;Asia In-Depth</strong>, Asia Society Policy Institute Vice President&nbsp;Wendy Cutler, who previously served as a U.S. trade negotiator in four administrations, talks about how the politics of trade have shifted during her career and what direction U.S. trade policy may head in as we enter the third decade of the 21st century.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-top: 0px solid #f6f6f6; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">Xi's Plan for the Countryside</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Zgv7A?track_p_id=2fc7hSrrq_xjE3TemNajxVe" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/4SmZij0wO14WMO9adtFE80i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7Zgv7A?track_p_id=2US7hSrrq_Wqw3JKmRWY2Jj" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Next Half Billion: China’s Rural Revitalization</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Investec</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘E-commerce has become a prime engine of rural revitalisation.</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Urbanization drove </strong>much of China’s previous growth.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With that more or less played out, ‘it is rural China,</strong> with its over half a billion residents, that is now becoming the key engine of China’s next great transformation.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi Jinping’s administration</strong> has made China’s rural economy a priority, focusing on overall economic growth, food security and social stability.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has set out a clear timetable</strong> for rural reforms based on a new policy framework with the ultimate goal to create a rural sector exemplified by "strong agriculture, a beautiful countryside and well-off farmers".&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the last two years,</strong> rural China has quietly become central to Xi Jinping’s reform plans, as he believes the Chinese Communist Party’s (CPC) ability to fulfil its major economic goals all critically depend on turbocharging the rural economy.’&nbsp;[see the chart below]</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘E-commerce</strong> has become a prime engine of rural revitalisation.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the four years to 2018,</strong> online retail sales in rural China increased by a compounded annual growth rate of 66%, compared to 34% nationally.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘Recently,</strong> Alibaba has said that it is looking to make its rural strategy one of its three core strategic development plans over the next two decades, after global and cloud.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘E-commerce</strong> is aligned with China’s rural revitalisation effort, boosting consumer spending power, narrows the income gap between urban and periphery, and augments productivity growth.’</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More on rural revitalization</strong> in coming issues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/ewsH4NRxnEVP0Z3JD1nj0jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-top: 0px solid #f6f6f6; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">5G</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rrFRI?track_p_id=2Vv9J1fjy_H6sasdBrrGHpO" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/DKFLL_WFNIxtoniJ10LrLki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rrFRI?track_p_id=5t%40yaa9J1fjy_wjGVtLOPaO" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Is Moving Quickly on 5G, but the United States Is Not Out of the Game</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Adam Segal</strong> | CFR</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘While politically useful, the&nbsp;race&nbsp;metaphor is&nbsp;misplaced&nbsp;in 5G.’</h2><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Beyond 5g, also read</strong> the CFR’s 126-page <a href="https://www.cfr.org/report/keeping-our-edge/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">‘Innovation and National Security: Keeping Our Edge’</a></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last week,</strong> China announced that it will begin offering&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/showing-that-the-us-wont-hold-it-back-china-launches-commercial-5g-service/2019/10/31/4f2e64da-fb16-11e9-9e02-1d45cb3dfa8f_story.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">commercial 5G services</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country expects</strong> to have&nbsp;<a href="http://chuangxin.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/31/WS5dbb80c1a31099ab995e92e9.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">130,000 base </a>stations by&nbsp;the end of the year, up from 80,000 now, and users will be offered plans starting from 128 RMB (about $18) per month.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s 5G rollout</strong> is happening at a quick pace, and the Chinese leadership clearly intends to use the announcement as a symbol both of the country’s rising technological capabilities and its ability to withstand American sanctions on Huawei.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Questions remain</strong> about the potential commercial uses of 5G in China and the number of Chinese with 5G-enabled phones.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But there</strong> will be a tendency to cast these developments as another sign that the United States is losing&nbsp;the race for the next generation of communication technologies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While politically useful,</strong> the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/23/18637213/5g-race-us-leadership-china-fcc-lte" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">race</a>&nbsp;metaphor is&nbsp;<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/12/huawei-china-5g-race-technology/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">misplaced</a>&nbsp;in 5G.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is often unclear</strong> who is ahead in a complex technology that is made up of many different components, and the idea of "ahead" may distract more than it illuminates.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The race framing may</strong>&nbsp;also result in wasted investment or the slowdown of 5G rollout globally.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the United States</strong> still has strengths to play.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. companies</strong> can dominate the applications and services that run over 5G, just like they did with 4G.’’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This means a greater focus</strong> on software development, especially the code that links devices to towers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The FCC</strong> should repurpose the mid-band spectrum for new wireless applications and free low-band spectrum held by the federal government, particularly the DOD.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The federal government</strong> should also fund several 5G R&amp;D centers at universities in areas where the United States might lead, including security and merging communications, storage, and computation in 5G.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> seems to be coming to a similar strategy.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-top: 0px solid #f6f6f6; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">Monetary Policy</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8A1ZlQ?track_p_id=2ih6D80fG_ZU4fXYBIeYwKd" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8A1ZlQ?track_p_id=1s6D80fG_rg3CiDAYp1N%40fj" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s PBOC Adopts Prudent Monetary Policy to Protect Small Banks</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘Rather than bolstering growth, the PBOC’s monetary policy is currently focused on trying to strengthen the position of the country’s small banks.’</h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.dbs.com/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/GR/112019/191107_insights_china_banking.xml" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read the 95-report</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> on the Chinese banking system from Development Bank of Singapore (DBS)</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">DBS </strong><a href="https://www.dbs.com/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/en/CIO/112019/191108asia.xml" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">reports</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘Chinese authorities</strong> are considering a sweeping package of measures to shore up smaller lenders, escalating efforts to contain one of the biggest risks facing the world’s largest banking system.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Two</strong> of the moves:</p><ol><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Problematic banks</strong> with less than CNY100b (USD14b) of assets would be urged to merge or restructure under a plan being discussed by financial regulators.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)</strong> has already begun to implement monetary policies that support small banks.</li></ol><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Focus on #2 'monetary policy'</strong> with great <a href="https://macropolo.org/cleanup_analysis/china-pboc-small-banks/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">analysis</a> from <strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong>.&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)</strong> has taken an unexpected approach to monetary policy this year.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than bolstering growth,</strong> the PBOC’s monetary policy is currently focused on trying to strengthen the position of the country’s small banks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Generally speaking,</strong> China’s small banks (a group that includes city commercial banks—like Baoshang—rural commercial banks, and village banks), have long been the weaker links in China’s financial system.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They have higher nonperforming loan ratios</strong> than large state-owned and joint stock banks and are also less ably managed.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s small banks</strong> are overly dependent on borrowing from other banks for their funding.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> their ability to access such funding can be disrupted during periods of stress in the financial system—which is what occurred when the central authorities took control of Baoshang Bank.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Fears that Baoshang’s problems</strong> weren’t isolated made banks reluctant to lend to each other, particularly to small banks that are usually considered more vulnerable.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That drove up borrowing costs</strong> and threatened to spread the distress more widely throughout the system—until the PBOC managed to calm the market by engaging in open market operations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Baoshang episode</strong> awakened the PBOC to the fact that as long as small banks are dependent on the interbank market to sustain their operations, disruptions in that market could exacerbate systemic risks.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reducing small banks’ interbank borrowing</strong> will not only make the overall system more stable, it will also give regulators more freedom to deal with banks like Baoshang without fear of triggering further financial distress.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-top: 0px solid #f6f6f6; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">Great Presentations</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 0% 3.5%; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:2px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8SBu5Y?track_p_id=5BLgjp7nYh4A_3jTE1X1xtv" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Eznsu3qnbZS8E1_ZrmUDNki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8SBu5Y?track_p_id=9X2R2dnoH67nYh4A_uzVVNN" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Two Lectures</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:558px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 1px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hillsdale College</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Highlighting two excellent presentations</strong>. Watch these and others <a href="https://www.hillsdale.edu/educational-outreach/center-for-constructive-alternatives/2019-2020-cca-i-understanding-china/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">here</a>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“China and the West: 1200-1900”</strong></li></ul><h3 style="text-align: left;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Arthur Waldron</strong> | University of Pennsylvania</h3><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“China Since the Communist Revolution”</strong></li></ul><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Frank Dikötter</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%" a=""><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 6, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">OPENING STATEMENT</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/62bIXY?track_p_id=07waJiw_16Q14ljl3NmIHlY" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/A34-JXbCfNBw6jMh3VQmQIVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/62bIXY?track_p_id=7yVFZEa47waJiw_oztAleb3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trade Deficit, Corruption, &amp; Bankruptcy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><br></h1><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">TRADE DEFICIT</strong></ins></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">One of President Trump’s goals</strong> is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Yet that deficit is growing. Why? Harvard’s Martin Feldstein has an answer.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign import barriers</strong> and exports subsidies are not the reason for the US trade deficit.’<ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The real reason</strong> is that Americans are spending more than they produce.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The overall trade deficit</strong> is the result of the saving and investment decisions of US households and businesses.</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The policies of foreign governments </strong>affect only how that deficit is divided among America’s trading partners.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That last point</strong> is important.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">If one of the Trump administration’s goals</strong> is to reallocate global distribution of manufacturing and chang supply chains dependent on China, then the strategy seems to be working, if at great cost to affected companies.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CORRUPTION</strong></ins></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Whether or not corruption</strong> has been a driver of China’s economy is a longstanding subject of debate. A Wall Street Journal article sums up the corruption is good argument:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'When officials</strong> have a direct stake in growth—moderate corruption can help local bureaucrats and companies circumvent ineffective institutions or nonsensical regulations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 90s and early 2000s,</strong> China was very corrupt but also fast-growing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These days,</strong> the country is less corrupt by most measures but also slower growing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><ins style="text-decoration: underline"><strong style="font-weight: bold">BANKRUPTCY</strong></ins></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And one interesting development, </strong>also reported by the Wall Street Journal, is that China is embracing bankruptcies.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China introduced</strong> formal bankruptcy laws in 2007.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But courts routinely rejected</strong> applications from struggling businesses and their creditors because of concerns over potential social unrest and large-scale layoffs.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now the court system</strong> has relieved some of the burden from local governments that kept companies afloat to prevent the kind of mass layoffs and financial losses that could shake China’s economy and political leadership.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The courts’ role</strong> in resuscitating or liquidating businesses is “not only an economic issue but also a social-responsibility issue,” said Ye Bingkun, a bankruptcy judge in Xiamen. “Bankruptcy is like the hospital for companies.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">These and more</strong> in this issue. Let me know what you think.&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And please</strong><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold"> forward</strong></span> the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;">Editor's Pick</span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">TRADE DEFICIT</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6Klcrg?track_p_id=aPyEPl4CKQc542txO_Ii5ZN" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Tad6xj_ebVw7qqeNRLm3H4VxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6Klcrg?track_p_id=apofSHnqJbC542txO_l3FOQ" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump Vowed to Shrink the Trade Gap. It Keeps Growing. Here's Why.</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">New York Times</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 5, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘Foreign import barriers and exports subsidies are not the reason for the US trade deficit.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/05/us/politics/us-trade-deficit.html?searchResultPosition=8" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NYT</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘The overall&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/us/politics/us-trade-deficit.html?module=inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">United States trade deficit</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;widened</strong> in the first nine months of 2019, to nearly $500 billion, a sign that the Trump administration’s approach to trade has so far done little to make a dent in the imbalance.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here’s why:</strong></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-trade-deficit-inconvenient-truth-by-martin-feldstein-2017-04" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Inconvenient Truths About the US Trade Deficit,’</strong></a> by Harvard’s Martin Feldstein, explains why President Trump’s policies are not shrinking the U.S. trade deficit.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I’ve been waiting</strong> for the right time to present this excellent analysis.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foreign import barriers</strong> and exports subsidies are not the reason for the US trade deficit.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The real reason</strong> is that Americans are spending more than they produce.’<ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The overall trade deficit</strong> is the result of the saving and investment decisions of US households and businesses.</li></ul></li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The policies of foreign governments</strong> affect only how that deficit is divided among America’s trading partners.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason why</strong> Americans’ saving and investment decisions drive the overall trade deficit is straightforward’:</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If a country saves more</strong> of total output than it invests in business equipment and structures, it has extra output to sell to the rest of the world.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other words,</strong> saving minus investment equals exports minus imports – a fundamental accounting identity that is true for every country in every year.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So reducing the US trade deficit</strong> requires Americans to save more or invest less.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On their own</strong>, policies that open other countries’ markets to US products, or close US markets to foreign products, will not change the overall trade balance.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112247105?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112247105?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112247105?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;">Editor's Pick</span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic; font-style:none;">LET COMPANIES FAIL!</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6cvxBo?track_p_id=94znZykJzv5yAnsc_uzCQdC" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp34VxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6cvxBo?track_p_id=8JSkgk3fL5yAnsc_LYYJgg5" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Embraces Bankruptcy, U.S.-Style, to Cushion a Slowing Economy</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 6, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'Bankruptcy courts in China sometimes are inclined to protect shareholders over debtholders—with the aim of averting social unrest.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After years of pumping out</strong> financial support to keep the economy humming and workers happy, China has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/less-savings-more-debt-how-chinese-manage-money-american-style-in-17-charts-11572427805?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">embarked on a debt reckoning</a>.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the trenches</strong> of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/heavy-debt-begins-to-crush-chinas-corporate-giants-including-the-jewelry-queen-11562597217?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">China’s debt-addled economy</a>, the government has made a startling decision: Let companies fail.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is a sign that Beijing</strong> is worried about the number of failing companies and trying to find a fix.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The system is helping,</strong> many lawyers, foreign investors and lenders say, as it takes some pressure off local governments that lack the resources for so many bailouts.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing is building a bankruptcy system</strong> to take on a significant pickup in corporate defaults.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country</strong> now has more than 90 U.S.-style specialized bankruptcy courts to help sort through a morass of corporate debt that, until recently, would have been swallowed by state banks and other creditors.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bankruptcy system in China,</strong> drawing on U.S. chapter 11 provisions, aims to allow companies to restructure under court protection to keep businesses alive and pay creditors over time.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s system differs significantly</strong> in at least one respect’: Bankruptcy courts here sometimes are inclined to protect shareholders over debtholders—with the aim of averting social unrest.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China introduced</strong> formal bankruptcy laws in 2007.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But courts routinely rejected</strong> applications from struggling businesses and their creditors because of concerns over potential social unrest and large-scale layoffs.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many insolvent companies</strong> chugged along with state subsidies and loans from state-owned banks.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some simply walked away </strong>from their debts, leaving creditors hanging.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now the court system</strong> has relieved some of the burden from local governments that kept companies afloat to prevent the kind of mass layoffs and financial losses that could shake China’s economy and political leadership.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The courts’ role</strong> in resuscitating or liquidating businesses is “not only an economic issue but also a social-responsibility issue,” said Ye Bingkun, a bankruptcy judge in Xiamen. “Bankruptcy is like the hospital for companies.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112248932?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112248932?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112248932?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 20px auto;background-color:#fff;padding-bottom:10px;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/R1Q9aZN1X8sXvpts7XyPpDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; text-align:left; font-size:0.875em; font-weight:900; color:#c80000; letter-spacing:-0.1px; ;"></span><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none;">MORE INSIGHTS</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">CHINA DOESN'T WANT YOUR TRASH</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6v6HVw?track_p_id=cZmCkYRbaP36Y6zBkkw_Xns" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/DKFLL_WFNIxtoniJ10LrLoVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6v6HVw?track_p_id=06zBkkw_VfKenGRJreCGX4z" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China Doesn’t Want Your Trash</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Affairs (CFR)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert/elizabeth-c-economy" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Elizabeth C. Economy</a> | CFR</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/bio/kate-oneill" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Kate O'Neill</a> | UC Berkeley</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 6, 2019</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/china-doesnt-want-your-trash" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Listen </a>to the podcast (21m 51s) &amp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/china-doesnt-want-your-trash" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"> read</a> the transcript</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘It was cheaper to ship plastic from the U.S. to China than to ship it from the west coast to the east coast.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For years</strong> China processed more than half of the world’s recycling.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But then, in 2018,</strong> China changed its mind and refused to accept our trash.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Until then,</strong> the system seemed perfect. Here’s how it worked.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ships would cross</strong> the Pacific full of Chinese goods.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Once they were unloaded,</strong> the hulls were filled with recyclables and sent back to China.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After arriving there,</strong> they were sorted, recycled, turned into new, affordable goods and shipped back once again to the Walmarts of the West.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘American towns and cities</strong> were able to make money by selling their waste to Chinese recyclers.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They made money</strong> by selling recycled materials to Chinese manufacturers.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Chinese manufacturers</strong> made money by selling new goods to American consumers.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As crazy as it sounds,</strong> the system was cost effective.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was cheaper</strong> to ship plastic from the U.S. to China than to ship it from the west coast to the east coast.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China thought it had a great deal at first,</strong> but as they churned through the world’s trash, it became apparent that this lucrative new business was also causing a great deal of harm.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Contaminated shipments</strong> led to problems with waste disposal, incineration, and illegal dumping all across China.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the Chinese people suffered</strong> for it with polluted waterways, air, and soil.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There’s also an issue of Chinese pride</strong> - being the receptacle for half the world’s waste is not necessarily the role that China wants to play.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So the Chinese government</strong> implemented National Sword, bringing the world’s recycling system to a grinding halt.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112251095?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112251095?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112251095?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">MACRO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="$post.getUrl()" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/4q8YTRvoY7LYzXxssuZgBYVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="$post.getUrl()" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Macro Outlook: Growth To Stabilize as Beijing Prepares for a Rockier 2020</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">MacroPolo</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://macropolo.org/author/houzesong/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">Houze Song</a> | MacroPolo</h3><h2 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 4, 2019</h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘Plenty of other downside risks remain on the horizon.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The temporary growth stabilization</strong> notwithstanding, the Chinese economy is still weaker than at any point since early 2019.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The unemployment rate</strong> is edging towards Beijing’s red line of 5.5%.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, despite</strong> the almost doubling of pork prices, inflation for almost everything else continues to decline (see Figure 4, below).</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Plenty of other downside risks</strong> remain on the horizon.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The uncertainties</strong> around the trade conflict will continue to negatively affect Chinese growth, not necessarily directly but indirectly by dampening private investment.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For instance,</strong> if property investment is excluded, then private investment growth is now close to zero.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> the trade conflict has had global ramifications, as evidenced by the recent softness in other major economies. Weak global demand will in turn further drag down China’s export sector that has already turned to negative growth in September.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As such,</strong> conditions could deteriorate rapidly in coming months, and Beijing needs to capitalize on the current stable environment to actively prepare for a more challenging 2020. This has implications for Beijing’s policy choices in 4Q2019.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For one thing,</strong> Beijing has more breathing room and will not need to implement an urgent stimulus.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> it has the liberty to refine its stimulus tools to deal with headwinds and minimize the negative effects from any stimulus.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And this approach</strong> is very clearly showing up in both monetary and fiscal policy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 10px auto;background-color:#fff;padding-bottom:10px;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/gz-P0mGfnQHvPTYnTz4BoTl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DGbq4?track_p_id=cH5bqSntzlaoY8J0d02_sQG" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjYVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7DGbq4?track_p_id=egByWKDKalZcqJk8J0d02_i" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Taiwan's Close Watch on Hong Kong Protests&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies (CSIS)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.csis.org/people/bonnie-s-glaser" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bonnie S. Glaser</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> | </strong>CSIS</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.csis.org/people/jude-blanchette" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jude Blanchette</strong></a> | CSIS</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 4, 2019</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.csis.org/podcasts/hong-kong-brink/taiwans-close-watch-hong-kong-protests" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Listen </strong></a>to the podcast (25m)</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'How the ongoing events in Hong Kong are impacting Taiwan’s own relations with mainland China.'&nbsp;</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘CSIS Director</strong> of the China Power Project Bonnie Glaser. They discuss how the ongoing events in Hong Kong are impacting Taiwan’s own relations with mainland China, as well as how the continued unrest can affect Taiwan’s presidential elections coming up in January 2020.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112251228?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112251228?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112251228?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">DOLLAR &amp; RENMINBI</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7VQwAC?track_p_id=aSoxaripI3U62y5sc_sk4MS" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/fT8DySfKfRttY-U-TpJFkIVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7VQwAC?track_p_id=crjac4XaijssB62y5sc_NlI" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Has the dollar lost ground as the dominant international currency?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Brookings</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Eswar Prasad | </strong>Cornell &amp; Brookings</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">September 20, 2019</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DollarInGlobalFinance.final_.9.20.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> this great </strong>24-page analysis of the dollar</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here </strong>are some excerpts about the RMB:</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'The renminbi is likely to make further, although very gradual, progress as an international payment currency.’</h2><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h2><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Why did the renminbi’s rise</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> to prominence in international financial markets stall?’</span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Starting in mid-2014,</strong> the Chinese economy seemed to be losing steam, domestic and foreign investors became less confident about the stability of China’s financial markets, and, to compound these problems, China’s central bank made some missteps as it attempted in August 2015 to reduce its management of the currency’s value.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Due to poor communication</strong> from the central bank, this August 2015 policy shift, which was intended to give freer rein to market forces in determining the renminbi exchange rate, was misinterpreted by financial market participants as an attempt by the Chinese government to devalue the currency in order to boost exports.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These developments</strong> led to capital outflows and further currency depreciation, which the government tried to counteract with capital controls.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reimposition</strong> of capital controls, persistent depreciation pressures on the currency, and the lack of financial market and other reforms seem to have taken the shine off the renminbi’s rise.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The renminbi</strong> now accounts for 2 percent of global FX reserves, an important but still modest fraction.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nevertheless,</strong> even these modest shares rank the renminbi fifth worldwide as an international payment currency and as a reserve currency.’</li></ul><h1 style="display: block;font-size: 1.5em;margin-top: .1em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Does the renminbi</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"> pose a realistic challenge to the dollar in the long run?’</span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The renminbi’s role</strong> as an international payment currency will, however, be constrained by the Chinese government’s unwillingness to free up the capital account and to allow the currency’s value to be determined by market forces.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The currency’s role</strong> in global finance will ultimately be determined by the degree of commitment that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s government makes to economic and financial market reforms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nevertheless,</strong> on account of China’s clout as a major trading partner for many other countries, and its especially large role in global commodity trade, the renminbi is likely to make further, although very gradual, progress as an international payment currency.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112081828?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112081828?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112081828?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">CORRUPTION DRIVES GROWTH?</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nbGUK?track_p_id=82uuv3z3678j02Q_QaTknJ3" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/K9fKxwrt-0GqvuYSovNp34VxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7nbGUK?track_p_id=aJ23oq6DnWl78j02Q_XFiUX" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s Corruption Paradox</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 1, 2019</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nathaniel Taplin</strong> | WSJ</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'When officials have a direct stake in growth—moderate corruption can help local bureaucrats and companies circumvent ineffective institutions or nonsensical regulations.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A squeaky clean</strong> Chinese bureaucracy may&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coming-soon-in-china-social-credit-for-companies-too-11568713871?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">cause as many problems as it solves</a>.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The basic argument</strong> is that when public institutions like courts and markets are fair and well-functioning, corruption hurts growth.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When they aren’t</strong>—and when officials have a direct stake in growth—moderate corruption can help local bureaucrats and companies circumvent ineffective institutions or nonsensical regulations.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Forcing unruly local officials</strong> into line has been a hallmark of President Xi Jinping’s administration, which began in 2012.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By so effectively destroying</strong> competing factions and realigning local officials’ incentives away from growth and entrepreneurship and toward strict compliance with Beijing, Xi’s administration may therefore have also inadvertently undermined one of the pre-Xi system’s great strengths: <strong style="font-weight: bold">its creativity.</strong>’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And cutting off</strong> alternative routes for dealing with the government may be most punishing to small, privately owned companies - China's growth engine, which already have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-controversial-savior-for-chinese-small-business-11569321392?mod=article_inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">the cards stacked against them</a>&nbsp;in China’s bureaucratic system.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 90s and early 2000s,</strong> China was very corrupt but also fast-growing.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These days,</strong> the country is less corrupt by most measures but also slower growing.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That may not be just a coincidence:</strong> A growing body of work hints that in the absence of deep institutional and financial-sector reforms, a certain degree of corruption might actually have been essential to China’s growth model.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">See the charts</strong> below:</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112080472?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112080472?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112080472?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 10px auto;background-color:#fff;padding-bottom:10px;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/AO7IMAN3-qSyfFrn3y1RHzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><hr style="margin:40px; border-width:1px; border-color:transparent;border-top:0px;border-style:solid;"></div>

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%" a=""><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Nov 2, 2019</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WHjYO?track_p_id=33af8gLcTu_tZbgbQRIlBIU" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/A34-JXbCfNBw6jMh3VQmQIVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7WHjYO?track_p_id=6xrLw2c8gLcTu_cFhtURRIV" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Surprise!?</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Alert China Macro Reporter readers</strong> will not be surprised that Bloomberg reports ‘Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We’ve covered many times</strong> all the reasons why China – and especially Xi Jinping - are not going to change its economic model to suit President Trump.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What is surprising</strong> is that the markets fell on the report.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Savvy fund managers</strong> should have priced in no comprehensive deal a long time ago.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Equally surprising</strong> is that markets rise and fall with each pronouncement from the White House - what we would call it in my old CIA days: ‘a source of proven unreliability.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What is not surprising</strong> is, as The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal cites, ‘A study by Federal Reserve economists this year looked at two waves of trade policy “shock,” and estimated the impact reduced GDP growth by about one percentage point.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Or, from an analysis</strong> from the Council on Foreign Relations, that <strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong>If Trump accepts what he is calling a “massive” deal with China, he will actually be leaving American farmers&nbsp;at least $7<em style="font-style: italic"> billion worse off</em>&nbsp;than they would have been without his policies.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As many analysts </strong>contend, and I agree, President Trump has upended the U.S. and world economies for no benefit.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With Phase 1,</strong> China gets what it wants: pork and soybeans that is needs anyway, and some relief from tariffs.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And the U.S. </strong>gets exports it would have made anyway, an opening of the financial services sector that China long had in the works, and…what?</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What is a little bit surprising</strong> is how the views of Bannon, Navarro, and the like – that the U.S. is a cage fight death match with China - are becoming U.S. policy as reflected in Secretary Pompeo’s recent speech.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For example,</strong> ‘The Chinese Communist Party is a Marxist-Leninist Party focused on struggle and international domination. We need only listen to the words of their leaders.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For all his harsh rhetoric, </strong>President Trump hasn’t gone as far as some of his advisors and influencers.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But clearly his Secretary of State,</strong> as well as his Vice President, would not be hitting China so hard if he didn’t approve.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><br></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All these more below</strong>. Let me know what you think.&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">Be sure to<strong style="font-weight: bold"> forward </strong>the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112110253?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112110253?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112110253?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">TRADE TALKS</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7oS3sW?track_p_id=9gBgIYbZJH8GVIUw_2ErIOc" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WYVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7oS3sW?track_p_id=7yNIGxUv8GVIUw_FmdtYrGh" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trade Talks Latest: China Doubts Deal Possible With Donald Trump&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">October 31, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S.'</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/china-said-to-doubt-long-term-trade-deal-possible-with-trump" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘Chinese officials</strong> are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In private conversations</strong> with visitors to Beijing and other interlocutors in recent weeks, Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest issues, according to people familiar with the matter.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They remain concerned</strong> about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese policy makers</strong> concluded a key political gathering in Beijing on Thursday.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In meetings ahead of that plenum</strong> some officials have relayed low expectations that future negotiations could result in anything meaningful -- unless the U.S. is willing to roll back more of the tariffs.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In some cases,</strong> they’ve urged American visitors to carry that very message back to Washington, the people said.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/31/us-markets-tepid-trade-uncertainty-dampens-banner-week-stocks/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Washington Post</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">: ‘All three major U.S. stock indexes</strong> slid on Thursday, the last day of the month.’ Why?</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘</strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/china-said-to-doubt-long-term-trade-deal-possible-with-trump" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg News</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>[above] reported Chinese officials are trying to lower expectations for a comprehensive trade deal because of worries President Trump could still upend negotiations; they’ve also signaled they won’t yield on the toughest issues that remain.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112090684?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112090684?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112090684?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/86cOCe?track_p_id=07sjOM2_CxQTuU1MJYQ1TOI" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/70Mx3kjMW7MujEpRqYWUwoVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/86cOCe?track_p_id=e%40CxD2b3hEigiqC7sjOM2_P" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump’s U.S.-China Trade Deal Is Fictional</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Policy</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chris Balding</strong> | Fulbright University Vietnam</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">October 14, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘Each side spent significant time recently removing key issues from the negotiating table.’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bigger problem</strong> in the trade talks is the United States and China agree on almost nothing. They do not agree on the problems, how to solve them, or even what the broad objectives should be.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China does not accept</strong> the U.S. position that domestic subsidies and industrial policy are negotiable topics, while the United States does not accept the Chinese position that Huawei is a trade issue.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nor do they agree</strong> on the general objective.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While openness and liberalization</strong> are generally taken as the foundational motivating objective of trade negotiations, China has not and does not accept the premise.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Each side spent</strong> significant time recently removing key issues from the negotiating table.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reports indicated</strong> that China refused to discuss industrial policy and subsidies, a key complaint from Washington.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> refused to discuss Huawei, other Chinese firms on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3010986/heres-what-you-need-know-about-us-restrictions-huawei-and-entity-list" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">entity</a> list, or the companies sanctioned over their involvement in Xinjiang.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A major driver</strong> of the significantly smaller deal is that each side has drawn a series of red lines around many issues, leaving relatively little to discuss.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given the ambiguous nature</strong> of the agreement and its limited scope, there’s little reason to have confidence this will result in a more lasting basis to move forward.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112091114?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112091114?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112091114?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">U.S. POLICY ON CHINA</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8OmiWm?track_p_id=axNqilUW3Gc7R2g1e_d3Bbf" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/nMFAEbEaZCS6QDPbZDkF1IVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8OmiWm?track_p_id=cTi4NFcLSCPWB7R2g1e_UVR" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Secretary Pompeo's China Speech</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hudson Institute</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Pompeo </strong>| U.S. Secretary of State</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">October 30, 2019</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.hudson.org/events/1708-herman-kahn-award-gala102019?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=UPel-pJiCUYvwdptNY5ZK2sSAwARbM0Rra1RjPcEx8GiKHzxgridBK3YDfyWFzxV" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Watch</strong></a> Secretary Pompeo's China speech</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Transcript_Secretary%20Mike%20Pompeo%20Hudson%20Award%20Remarks.pdf" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a> the transcript</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">"The Chinese Communist Party is a Marxist-Leninist Party focused on struggle and international domination.'</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On China,</strong> Steve Bannon is like a smart Peter “Death by China” Navarro. And that makes him more effective.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have followed</strong> Steve’s views on China for some time. They represent a position that the U.S.-China relationship is a cage fight death match with only one winner.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You can sense the influence </strong>of Bannon or Navarro, or now Newt Gingrich with his new book,<strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.gingrich360.com/trump-vs-china/" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><em style="font-style: italic">Trump vs. China: Facing America's Greatest Threat</em></a><em style="font-style: italic">,</em> and others of that ilk,&nbsp;on President Trump's China policy.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the President </strong>never seemed to fully embrace these extreme China views - never really seemed to get to the center of U.S. policy.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even Mike Pence’s </strong><a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/video-vice-president-pence-delivers-inaugural-frederic-v-malek-public-service-leadership" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">recent speech</strong></a> was at least sort of balanced - slapping China with his left hand while holding out his right hand to shake.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Then I heard </strong><a href="https://www.hudson.org/events/1708-herman-kahn-award-gala102019" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mike Pompeo’s speech</strong></a> on October 30 - &nbsp;he slaps China with both hands.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Seems as if the extreme views</strong> on the periphery are making their way into main U.S. policy.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">This has been coming for a while. Have a look at <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-mike-pompeo-became-trumps-china-hawk/2019/06/27/a166361e-991a-11e9-916d-9c61607d8190_story.html" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'How Mike Pompeo became Trump’s China hawk.'</strong></a><br></li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">a few excerpts</strong> from Secretary Pompeo's speech:</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">_____________________________________&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"Today,</strong> we’re finally realizing the degree to which the Chinese Communist Party is truly hostile to the United States and our values, and its worse deeds and words and how they impact us.’"&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"And we’re able</strong> to do that because of the leadership of President Trump."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"The Chinese Communist Party</strong> is a Marxist-Leninist Party focused on struggle and international domination. We need only listen to the words of their leaders."</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"President Trump’s</strong> National Security Strategy lays this out."</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"It recognizes China</strong> as a strategic competitor. That means there are challenges and there’s real opportunities, and we hope that we can engage with them in ways that are constructive."</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"But it’s reality.</strong> It’s the truth."</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"But above all,</strong> it’s critical that as Americans, we engage China as it is, not as we wish it were."</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112085097?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112085097?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112085097?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">TRADE WAR IMPACT</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8gx2qu?track_p_id=bCHw4Jdx2EX25W71Ze_KSEs" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/h5PBEds0hXXs9vTKq_bfdYVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8gx2qu?track_p_id=ce6SOwhHmxpiN5W71Ze_eS2" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Adam Smith’s Revenge</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Wall Street Journal</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Editorial Board </strong>| WSJ</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">October 30, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">'Federal Reserve economists looked at trade policy “shock,” and estimated the impact reduced GDP growth by about one percentage point.’&nbsp;</h2><p style="text-align: left;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The great counterfactual</strong> of the Trump Presidency is how much faster the economy would be growing without the damage of his trade protectionism.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Wednesday’s report</strong> of lackluster 1.9% growth in the third quarter shows again that you can’t escape Adam Smith’s revenge for indulging in bad economic policy for political goals.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘GDP growth</strong> accelerated to 3% for a time along with investment, but then came Mr. Trump’s trade interventions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘More than the damage from tariffs,</strong> business confidence fell amid the uncertainty of what Mr. Trump might do next.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has led to slower growth</strong> that is reflected in roughly 2% GDP growth in the last two quarters.'&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The economy</strong> is now down again to the slow Obama growth plane.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Trump</strong> and some in the White House blame the Federal Reserve and Europe for this slump, but neither explanation holds up.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The strong evidence</strong> is that trade policy is the main growth culprit. U.S. manufacturing has slumped, which is related to slowing exports.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A study by Federal Reserve economists</strong> this year looked at two waves of trade policy “shock,” first in 2018 and then in the first half of 2019, and estimated the impact reduced GDP growth by about one percentage point.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112082130?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112082130?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112082130?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8z7NB2?track_p_id=c65n6uMIG5Ukf51hCAQ_yVE" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/EJ5TN-ECM2ARA6t2A0YTaYVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8z7NB2?track_p_id=dFWOA44EMiEYis51hCAQ_3F" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">直面中美贸易冲突 坚持深化改革开放&nbsp;Facing the Sino-US trade conflict and insisting on deepening reform and opening up</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shanghai Pu Shan New Finance Development Foundation |&nbsp;</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Shanghai Finance Institute</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dong Yan and Xu Qiyuan | </strong>Chinese Academy of Social Sciences</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 1, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘The impact of tariffs on the country's real income is mostly less than 1%.'</h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chinese economists’ perspective</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Comprehensive and balanced</strong><a href="http://www.cf40.org.cn/plus/view.php?aid=13736" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">18-page analysis</a> of the U.S.-China relationship (in Chinese)</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here's</strong> excerpt from just one section.</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">___________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The impact of tariffs</strong> on the country's real income is mostly less than 1%.&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But on the other hand,</strong> the sentiment of financial markets has responded strongly to the Sino-US trade war.’&nbsp;</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘How to explain</strong> this contradiction, how big is the impact of the tariff war on China?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The apparent pessimism</strong> of the market may be mainly due to the expectation that China's opening up process will be reversed due to the Sino-US trade war.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as China</strong> firmly implements the policy of expanding its opening up to the outside world, the impact of Sino-US trade friction on the Chinese economy is relatively limited, and the market will surely regain its confidence.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘However,</strong> if the tariff war is escalated and long-term, this may have a substantial impact on the long-term business behavior and major decisions of the company, which will have a profound impact on the current global division of labor, including China.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112107553?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112107553?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112107553?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HHhVA?track_p_id=2Su83LyUI_J1aOP3x2QDnep" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/DKFLL_WFNIxtoniJ10LrLoVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/9HHhVA?track_p_id=8m4EEDcNF83LyUI_s2QShxd" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">China’s “Massive” Trade Offer Leaves U.S. Farmers $7 Billion Worse Off</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert/benn-steil" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Benn Steil</strong></a><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;and&nbsp;</strong></em><a href="https://www.cfr.org/bio/benjamin-della-rocca" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Benjamin Della Rocca</strong></a> | CFR</h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">October 29, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">‘The right way to evaluate China’s offer is to ask: how much U.S. farmers&nbsp;would have&nbsp;exported to China in 2020 had Trump never started his trade war?’</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If Trump accepts</strong> what he is calling a “massive” deal with China, he will actually be leaving American farmers&nbsp;at least $7<em style="font-style: italic"> billion worse off</em>&nbsp;than they would have been without his policies.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The right way to evaluate</strong> China’s offer is to ask: how much U.S. farmers&nbsp;would have&nbsp;exported to China in 2020 had Trump never started his trade war?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the graphic below,</strong> the dotted blue line projects such sales by assuming that, after 2017, China’s purchase volumes of each type of agricultural good would, absent Trump’s trade war, have continued growing at the rates seen since 2010.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As the yellow marker highlights,</strong> China’s 2020 purchases would have exceeded $27 billion. That is, China would have bought over $7 billion more than what it is now offering.’</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And this is a conservative estimate,</strong> given that the projections assume&nbsp;<a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10338" rel="nofollow" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">prices</a> stay fixed at last year’s trade-war-depressed levels.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As regards China’s tease</strong> that a complete end to the trade war could push its U.S. ag purchases up to $40-50 billion, this is wholly implausible.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' Chinese ag imports</strong> before the trade war had barely been on pace to reach $30 billion by 2022.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112079995?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112079995?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112079995?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto 10px auto;background-color:#fff;padding-bottom:10px;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/fwHiUvS2MPQe8JF2dSxl6Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#00123C; font-family:Georgia, serif; padding:3px 5px; border-left:10px solid #c80000; border-bottom: 0px solid #c5c5c5; text-align:center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight:700; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:italic;">'CHINA POLICY' ROUNDUP</span></td></tr><!--- end BLUE_BOX ---></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; padding:0 3.5% 2% 3.5%; border-bottom: 1px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td width="80px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-top:5px; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/4tvB9U?track_p_id=08OS48k_UNKJa5rr3nQY6Oz" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="80px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/i594-naLXHY5yrHTjyNWnoVxfvstQ3JFlDT8iY_Dcjs=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/4tvB9U?track_p_id=9orE3SwCV%408OS48k_U3fXHU" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.475em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.375; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">october: fourth Plenum, South Pacific, RCEP</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1.125em; font-family:Georgia,serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.575em; letter-spacing:-0.1px"><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Policy</strong></h3><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: .85em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: .1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">November 1, 2019</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: .8em;margin-bottom: 1.0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia,serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 1px solid #ddd;padding-top: .6em;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp;‘October was bookended by major political events.'</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Led by the terrific </strong><a href="https://policycn.com/team/" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Philippa Jones</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">, </strong><a href="https://policycn.com/services/" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China Policy</strong></a> is a globally recognized research and strategic advisory, headquartered in Beijing.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each month</strong> CP publishes a brief but comprehensive roundup of events in China.</li><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;">You can <strong style="font-weight: bold">subscribe</strong> to the roundup <a href="https://policycn.com/#subscribe" style="color: inherit;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">here</strong></a>.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here</strong> are a few snippets from the latest roundup:</p><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;">&nbsp;________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘October was bookended</strong> by major political events, beginning with a triumphant&nbsp;military parade&nbsp;on the 70th anniversary of the PRC and ending with the&nbsp;long-anticipated fourth Plenum.’&nbsp;</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition to major political events at home,</strong> Xi Jinping was busy managing foreign affairs, juggling ongoing&nbsp;US-China negotiations&nbsp;with visits to India, Nepal and Brazil amid a row with Australia.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi and Indian Prime Minister Modi</strong> made progress on&nbsp;RCEP negotiations&nbsp;in their meetings, part of a larger turn towards regionalism in response to global trade challenges.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Q3 economic data</strong> showed a continued slowdown.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;"><li style="margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The State Council</strong> revised tax collection, giving consumption taxes to localities in an effort to both resolve local government budget challenges and motivate them to support consumption.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Frontloading of 2020 special bonds&nbsp;</strong>has increased long term financial risks for local governments overstating or fabricating cash flows.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: .5em;margin-bottom: .5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;font-family: gorditamedium,sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; width: 100%"><table style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/twitter/4112090796?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/twitter@2x.png" alt="Tweet this Story"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/facebook/4112090796?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/facebook@2x.png" alt="Share on Facebook"></a></td><td width="28" style="text-align: center"><a href="https://www.scoop.it/share/post/linkedin/4112090796?forceAnonymous=1" style="border-bottom: none;color: inherit;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img width="24" height="24" border="0" src="https://static.axios.com/img-email/social/linkedin@2x.png" alt="Post to LinkedIn"></a></td><td style="vertical-align: bottom;"><div style="height: 5px; width: 100%;"></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="10" style="height:10px; font-size:0; border-bottom:10px solid #f6f6f6">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div>

‘Wall Street will be the next US-China battleground’
August 1, 2019
1. TRADE TALKS
2. BEYOND THE TRADE WAR
3. HONG KONG
4. GEO-POLITICS
5. ECONOMY
6. ONLINE BANKING
7. MANUFACTURING LEAVING CHINA
8. CHINESE INVESTMENT IN THE U.S.
‘China’s continuing drag on the global economy’
June 27, 2019
1. ‘The Value of Global China’: McKinsey
2. China's Maritime Militias in the ‘Gray Zone’
3. ‘The Failures of the “Failure of Engagement” with China’
4. Hardline trade minister joins China’s negotiating team
5. ‘The Continuing Chinese Drag on the Global Economy’
‘Does China rule the Fortune 500?’
July 24, 2019
1. ‘Who Likes Facebook's Libra Currency? Not the Chinese.’
2. ‘Does China rule the Fortune 500?’ Pro & Con
3. ‘China's Private Firms Continue to Struggle’: Nick Lardy
4. ‘Does China’s “Invisible Hand” Steer Funds to State-Owned Firms?’
5. ‘Party Loyalty in China Helps Private Companies Get Cheaper Loans’
6. 'Why the United States doesn’t need to return to a gentler China policy'
'China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas'
July 20, 2019
1. Trade war fallout not crushing China’s economy: Stephen Roach
2. ‘Trump tries to woo Federal Reserve in China trade fight’
3. ‘China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas’
4. ‘U.S.-China Trade: If We Get to Yes, Will It Make Any Difference?’
5. ‘Who Actually Pays Tariffs?’
6. ‘Is China Weakening the Yuan to Fight U.S. Tariffs?’
7. ‘China’s Exchange Rate Policy Woes’
China’s slowing economy not caused by trade war
July 17, 2019
1. China’s slowing economy not caused by trade war
2. China’s economy doing better than latest numbers
3. ‘China’s global business footprint shrinks’: China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT)
4. China: ‘The Art of Wait and See’
5. Why China Still Needs Hong Kong
‘U.S.-China Positions Have Hardened’
July 13, 2019
1. ‘U.S.-China Positions Have Hardened’
2. Impact of tariffs on business decisions: Richmond Fed President
3. ‘China tariffs: We can do better’
4. “Who Knew Trump Would Offer A Truce With Xi?”: The Mystery Of The Wall Street Trump Trades
5. ‘Trump’s tariff claims are demonstrably false. Here’s why.’
6. 'Is the China model a threat?'
‘How China Failed to Fail’
July 10, 2019
1. ‘Graphic Truth: China Since Tiananmen’
2. Secretary Pompeo’s two-prong China strategy
3. ‘The Fed Is Trump’s Secret Ally in the Trade War’
4. ‘Should China help secure the Strait of Hormuz?’
5. ‘Why I’ve Lost Faith in China’s Private Sector’: Shuli Ren, Bloomberg
6. ‘How China Failed to Fail: Can China’s Glass Remain Both Half Full and Half Empty?’
'China Is Not An Enemy'
July 6, 2019
1. ‘China is not an enemy’
2. Alipay & WeChat: China’s retail payment revolution
3. Can Facebook’s Libra replicate WeChat Pay’s digital payment dominance?
4. 'Hong Kong Has Nothing Left to Lose'
Trade war: 'Wet US-China firecracker at G20’
July 3, 2019
1. ‘What the US and China each got out of the Trump-Xi meeting in Japan.’
2. ‘Wet US-China firecracker at G20’: Derek Scissors
3. ‘Trump's “brilliant stroke” with China's Xi a win for US’: Michael Pillsbury
4. ‘The Chinese move only to the extent that it suits their domestic economic agenda.’: Kevin Rudd
5. Peter Navarro on the trade war cease fire and Huawei
6. ‘The big takeaway from this meeting is that you have a ceasefire.’: Michael Hirson, Eurasia Group
7. ‘Trump hasn’t reversed his position on Huawei’: Michael Pillsbury
8. From the World Economic Forum in Dalian China
At the G20, 'Xi still believes he has the upper hand'
June 29, 2019
1. G-20 leaders face a toxic trifecta of political instability, trade tensions and slowing global growth
2. Trump & Xi at the G20: the context
3. Trade War: Xi Still Believes He Has the Upper Hand
Xi's 'Self-reliance' - Why Blacklisting Huawei Could Backfire
June 26, 2019
1. Xi Jinping’s Trade Conundrum: Why the Chinese Leader Isn’t About to Back Down
2. Why Blacklisting Huawei Could Backfire
3. BACKGROUNDER | Huawei: China’s Controversial Tech Giant
4. Mao Redux: The Enduring Relevance of Self-reliance in China
Roubini on the U.S.-China trade war, the impact on the global economy, and the stakes at the coming G20
June 22, 2019
1. Roubini – ‘Dr. Doom’ - on the U.S.-China trade war
2. ‘The Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War’
3. The Coming Sino-American Bust-Up
4. The Growing Risk of a 2020 Recession and Crisis
'Trump Has Gotten China to Lower Its Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Else.'
June 19, 2019
1. ‘America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire’: Robert Kaplan, Eurasia Group
2. 'Trump Has Gotten China to Lower Its Tariffs. Just Toward Everyone Else.'
3. ‘Services are ½ of the value-added in global trade- we just don’t see them or count them.’: David Dollar, Brookings
4. HK Protests: ‘An analysis of events’ by Nuri Vattachi + a response from a noted Greater China expert
Hong Kong Protests: 'If China doesn't back down, the U.S. will make it pay dearly.'
June 15, 2019
1. ‘People v power: The rule of law in Hong Kong’: The Economist
2. What is the proposed law that the protesters oppose?
3. ‘Plugging a loophole?’
4. ‘Hong Kong’s proposed extradition law puts ties with America at risk’: The Economist
5. ‘China Is Courting Disaster in Hong Kong’: Minxin Pei
6. CONGRESS | ‘The reaction that really matters is in Washington, D.C.’: The Economist
7. CONGRESS | Actions by the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC)
8. PRESIDENT TRUMP | ‘So I hope it all works out for China and for Hong Kong.’
9. PRO | ‘There Are Huge Misconceptions About Extradition Bill.’: Ronnie Tong
10. CON | ‘My take on Hong Kong's extradition bill’: Jerry Cohen
11. CON | ‘A convenient legal tool to grab individuals deemed to be “enemies” of the Chinese state’: Minxin Pei
12. CON | President Xi Needs to tell Carrie Lam ‘no amendment now’ : Michael Pillsbury
'Not another downturn in U.S.-China relations: a paradigm shift'
June 12, 2019
1. ‘China’s rise would have eroded any hegemon’s unrivaled power, no matter how skillful its diplomacy’: Fareed Zakaria
2. ‘Not another downturn in U.S.-China relations: a paradigm shift’: Jim McGregor
3. ‘China had America right where it wanted it - and they overreached’: Jim McGregor
4. ‘China's Private Firms Continue to Struggle’: Nick Lardy
5. ‘Why is China so interested in building and buying ports?’: Deborah Bräutigam
'The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths.’ Deng Xiaoping
June 7, 2019
1. The trade war is paralyzing business decision making.
2. Impact of tariffs on U.S. businesses in China: AmCham China chairman
3. ‘The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths.’ Deng Xiaoping
4. Trade war: How lawyers vs economists as negotiators lead to the breakdown in talks
5. A primer on how Chinese law might enforce a US-China trade deal
6. Impact of tariffs on U.S. businesses in China: AmCham survey
The 30-year detour: The path from Tiananmen to Xi Jinping
June 4, 2019
1. ‘Tiananmen divides PRC history into before and after’
2. The 30-year detour: The path from Tiananmen to Xi Jinping
3. ‘The Party has relied on brute force since its inception’
4. Tiananmen: Reporting from ABC World News Tonight 1989
5. ‘Assignment: China - Tiananmen Square’
6. The story behind the ‘Tank Man’ photo
Peter Navarro talks tariffs on CNBC
June 1, 2019
1. Peter Navarro talks tariffs on CNBC 💣
2. Navarro : ‘The producers in Mexico and China pay for this. Here's how it works. A tariff goes on that puts pressure on the Chinese or the Mexican producers to lower their prices – otherwise they can't sell.’
3. Navarro : ‘Corporate executives are recognizing that the supply chain is better off in other places in the globe or better yet bring that here.’
4. Navarro : ‘So these people who say that somehow American consumer is going to pay for this - that's simply not true.’
5. Navarro : ‘We’ve had tariffs on dishwashers and solar panels - half of Chinese exports to this country - steel and aluminum and we see virtually no inflation.' — DISHWASHERS & SOLAR PANELS
6. Navarro : ‘We’ve had tariffs on dishwashers and solar panels - half of Chinese exports to this country - steel and aluminum. And we see virtually no inflation.’ — STEEL
‘How China Sees Trump’s Trade War’
May 29, 2019
1 ‘How China Sees Trump’s Trade War’: Victor Shih
2. Nick Lardy on the trade war, fixing capital allocations, & why China’s GDP numbers are right
3. ‘Death by China’ & Peter Navarro
Why the West is getting Xi wrong
May 22, 2019
1. How the West is getting China wrong
2. Now China's Got Its Own Anti-U.S. Trade War Song
3. ‘Trade tensions will persist until global financial imbalances are addressed’
4. ‘Five Big Myths of China's Belt and Road Initiative.’
5. Trump's 2019 Protection Could Push China Back to Smoot-Hawley Tariff Levels
6. More from Bill Overholt
Trade talks breakdown: How the U.S. misunderstands Chinese negotiating style
May 18, 2019
1. Tracing Trump's Aggressive Tariff Strategy Back to the 1980s
2. Tom Friedman explains why he agrees with Trump's China aims but not his means
3. Trade talks breakdown: How the U.S. misunderstands Chinese negotiating style
4. Trade War Won’t Dent China’s GDP
5. Comments on the U.S.-China trade war from PIIE president Adam Posen
6. China’s response: a stable or a weakened Yuan?
Sharpening the US-China trade debate
May 15, 2019
1. It's Trump vs. Xi in the China trade war — and it's personal
2. 'Reaching an agreement can only be done at the top.’
3. Sharpening the US-China trade debate
4. FACE OFF: Brookings vs. American Enterprise Institute
5. Trade war: Is the U.S. panicking due to China’s big hedge?
6. ‘The Chinese don't get this concept “earn” their way out of punitive tariffs’: Michael Pillsbury
'Trump was right to call China's bluff in the trade talks'
May 10, 2019
1. As China Trade Talks Stall, Xi Faces a Dilemma: Fold? Or Double Down?
2. 'Trump was right to call China's bluff in the trade talks': Bill Bishop
3. The US-China trade war is poised to enter the next phase
4. Tariffs on China are no substitute for a trade deal
5. China can earn its way out of Trump’s tariffs
6. Xi Jinping Wanted Global Dominance. He Overshot
7. Trade War Results in Substantial Losses for U.S.
8. Trump Could Raise Tariffs on China. Here’s How China Could Respond.
9. A year of trade losses in the U.S.-China tariff war.....—AEI
Will Trump's ‘Crazy Uncle’ strategy work this time?
May 8, 2019
1. 'Expect the president to move forward with tariffs this Friday.": Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group
2. Will Trump's ‘Crazy Uncle’ strategy work this time?
3. New tariffs could cost China 1% GDP: Tao Wang, UBS
4. 'Why Trump Is Raising Tariffs on China' - by Trump advisor Michael Pillsbury
5. Trump's Tariff Threat on Rest of Chinese Goods Would Hit Final Consumer Product
China Never Stopped Managing its Trade
May 4, 2019
1. China Never Stopped Managing its Trade
2. A dash of stimulus helps stabilize China’s wobbly economy
3. 'May 4th Movement': Happy 100th anniversary
4. 'How the Communist Party seized the legacy of May Fourth'
Xi's Belt and Road Reboot
May 1, 2019
1. Xi Jinping's Second Belt and Road Forum: Three Key Takeaways
2. Brooking's David Dollar on praise and criticism of Belt and Road Initiative
3. Three ways of looking at the Belt and Road Initiative
4. A Slimmer Belt and Road Is Even Scarier
5. Expert Insights | 'China&rsquo;s Belt And Road: The New Geopolitics Of Global Infrastructure Development'
6. Director's Summary | 'China&rsquo;s Belt And Road: The New Geopolitics Of Global Infrastructure Development'
7. QUIZ: How much do you know about the Belt and Road Initiative?
8. 'Durian "Little Thai" takes us on a journey along the Belt and Road'
'The State Has Dragged Down China’s Economic Growth'
April 27, 2019
1. 'The State Has Dragged Down China’s Economic Growth': Nick Lardy
2. U.S.-China trade talks: How Trump’s latest Iran sanctions decision could impact a deal
3. In US-China Trade Disputes, the WTO Usually Sides with the United States
4. Trump and the WTO: From trashing to crippling
5. 'China Growth Outlook': Credit Suisse
6. Caixin PMI has become a leading indicator of global momentum
5G: 'The US. is winning a race that no one else is running'
April 24, 2019
1. 5G: 'The U.S. is winning a race that no one else is running'
2. Department of Defense: The obstacle to U.S. winning 5G
3. China in the report
In China, Party Control Trumps the Economy
April 20, 2019
1. China's economy back on track - Not so fast
2. In China, political control trumps the economy
3. JUST OUT | 2019 OECD Economic Survey of China
4. Why the calculations that led to the trade war are wrong
'Only Trump can save China'
April 17, 2019
1. Five things to watch for in China’s new GDP data
2. 'Only Trump can save China'
3. ‘China’s land prices deserve as much attention as European industrial production or U.S. retail sales’
4 'Trump’s Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem'
Europe's 'new realism' at the 'EU-China Summit'
April 13, 2019
1. 'EU-China Summit': China faces a tougher Europe
2. Europe's 'new realism' at the 'EU-China Summit'
3. China's strategy for the EU
4. The EU's (possible) strategies toward China
5. VIDEO | The Heat: China-EU summit
Trade war: 'U.S. policy has changed because China has changed'
April 10, 2019
1. Trump & Kim Hangin' in Hanoi
2. Trade war: 'U.S. policy has changed because China has changed'
3. China’s leaders should study James Bond films
4. The best explanation of Xi's view on China's private sector – beat it into submission
5. Heads Up | Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer – terrific!
6. April 2019 Trade Bulletin
'Why China market reforms haven't worked'
April 6, 2019
1. 'We're going from an unregulated trade war with China to a regulated one.’
2. Why China's market reform isn't working
3. All is well in China's intelligence service
4. 'China's GDP could start to grow again in 5-10 years': Prof Xu Bin, CEIBS
5. Starbucks opens a new store in China every 15 hours
'China is the world’s best consumer story'
April 3, 2019
1. 'China stimulus tracker: A one-year report card' | Development Bank of Singapore (DBS)
2. 'China is the world’s best consumer story' | McKinsey
3. When will China GDP > U.S GDP?: '2030 is not a bad estimate - but so is never.'
4. Xi and Trump Miss Their Chance
An unmistakable first-quarter recovery' for China's economy
March 30, 2019
1. 'An unmistakable first-quarter recovery' for China's economy
2. China’s Bond Market Comes of Age—Sort of
3. 'The Future of China's Bond Market'
4. 'The president has taught me that tariffs have an important use in trade negotiations': Larry Kudlow
5. 'A prolonged period of radical uncertainty' - 'a major source is the Sino-American trade war': Michael Spence
'Xi visits a divided EU with charm and deals'
March 27, 2019
1. Mueller report give U.S. more clout in trade negotiations
2. 'The time of European naïveté towards China had ended': Macron
3. Xi in Europe: How China is outmaneuvering Trump on trade
4. 'The Belt and Road Initiative Impact on Europe: An Italian Perspective'
'Two Sessions' End
March 23, 2019
1. 'Foreign Investment Law': the level playing field
2. 'Foreign Investment Law': 'Tech transfer in China is no longer the main concern'
3. Yi Gang: 'China has deleveraged' | Michael Pettis: 'No. Debt has gone up'
4. 'China can't create growth- or jobs - out of tax cuts'
5. 'The manufacturing sector, mired in a crisis of confidence, needs more than this tax cut.'
6. With Streaks of Gray Hair, Xi Jinping of China Breaks With Tradition
7. Another insight from 'The Relevant Organs'
'Two Sessions' II
March 13, 2019
1. China's increased State role is reason for slowing economy, Lardy Says
2. Addressing the crisis of confidence - what Premier Li said and didn't say
3. Is China looking for 'good' shadow banks?
4. PODCAST (12m 22s) | Analysing China’s Two Sessions and the influence of tech company chiefs
5. Explaining the seating plan at China's Two Sessions
6. IN DEPTH | More Nick Lardy on 'The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?'
'Two Sessions' I
March 9, 2019
1. Facing Slowing Economic Growth, China’s Premier Promises Relief for Business
2. Six key takeaways from China's annual policy blueprint
3. China’s Stimulus Muddle Deepens
4. China’s ‘two sessions’: an economic watershed or more of the same?
5. Xi Jinping Works to Stifle Dissent Amid Concerns About China’s Economy
6. FINTECH: Two Sessions Sends Strong Signals on Support for Chinese Fintech Development
7. How tea is served in the Great Hall of the People in China
8. 'Two Sessions': A rap song extolling China's annual political meeting
Podcast