CHINAMacroReporter

VIEs
0

China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks

I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.

Bloomberg

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Risks & Trends

Matt Levine | Bloomberg

VIEs

3

Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'

‘ “Variable interest entities”(VIEs): The problem with this is that it sort of sounds like you’re kidding. But this is a standard method for mainland Chinese internet companies to go public, and the market has come to accept it.’
Matt Levine | Bloomberg
7/22/2021

Bloomberg

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Risks & Trends

Matt Levine | Bloomberg

VIEs

4

Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)

‘The prospectus has a diagram, above, of the corporate structure, which looks almost normal. But everything below the double arrow — the actual ride-hailing business, etc. — is slightly askew.’
Matt Levine | Bloomberg
7/22/2021

Bloomberg

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Risks & Trends

Matt Levine | Bloomberg

VIEs

5

Part 3 | Revising the Rules

‘The Chinese government could declare “all these VIE contracts are actually a disguised form of foreign ownership, which is not allowed by the rules, so they are all void and your Didi and Alibaba shares are worthless.” ’
Matt Levine | Bloomberg
7/22/2021

Nikkei Asia

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Risks & Trends

VIEs

2

'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'

‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
7/22/2021

Financial Times

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Risks & Trends

Jamie Powell | Financial Times

VIEs

1

'Tell me lies, tell me sweet little VIEs'

Jamie Powell | Financial Times
7/22/2021

Bloomberg

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The Big Ideas

'China Plans to Exempt H.K. IPOs From Cybersecurity Reviews'

‘China plans to exempt companies going public in Hong Kong from first seeking the approval of the country’s cybersecurity regulator, removing one hurdle for businesses that list in the Asian financial hub instead of the U.S.’
7/18/2021

The Wall Street Journal

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The Big Ideas

The Editorial Board | The Wall Street Journal

'Biden’s Warning on Hong Kong'

‘The pretense of Chinese and Hong Kong authorities is that their crackdown on the rule of law and dissent will have no effect on Hong Kong’s viability as an international center for trade and finance.’
The Editorial Board | The Wall Street Journal
7/18/2021

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The Big Ideas

Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China

During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
7/18/2021

Nikkei Asia

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The Big Ideas

'I will aim for Mao's Status.'

‘There on the gate was Xi Jinping, Chinese president and party general secretary, in a gray Mao suit. Just below his feet was the portrait of Mao Zedong, also dressed in a gray Mao suit.’
7/18/2021

Financial Times

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The Big Ideas

'US warns companies of risk of doing business in Hong Kong'

“In the face of Beijing’s decisions over the past year that have stifled the democratic aspirations of people in Hong Kong, we are taking action,” said Antony Blinken, US secretary of state. “Today we send a clear message that the US resolutely stands with Hong Kongers.”
7/18/2021

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Biden China Tracker

Biden Doctrine

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The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents

President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
7/15/2021

The Economist

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Biden China Tracker

Biden Doctrine

3

'What's Wrong with Biden’s new China doctrine'

‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
7/15/2021

The Economist

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Biden China Tracker

Biden Doctrine

2

Part 2 | Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America

‘Mr Biden’s aides invariably start any discussion of China strategy with the need to restore American greatness after decades of decline.’
7/15/2021

The Economist

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Biden China Tracker

Biden Doctrine

1

Part 1 | 'Joe Biden is determined that China should not displace America'

‘Biden’s emerging China strategy, while still protean, sounds of a kind with Mr Doshi’s prescription for “blunting and building”.’
7/15/2021

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In-Depth

Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again

Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
7/8/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

The Chinese Point of View

Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
7/4/2021

Foreign Affairs

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The Big Ideas

Wang Jisi | President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University

'How Beijing Sees U.S.-China Relations'

‘In Chinese eyes, the most significant threat to China’s sovereignty and national security has long been U.S. interference in its internal affairs aimed at changing the country’s political system and undermining the CCP.’
Wang Jisi | President of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University
7/4/2021

Foreign Affairs

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The Big Ideas

Yuen Yuen Ang | University of Michigan

'How Corruption Powers China's Economy'

‘China has managed to sustain four decades of economic growth despite levels of corruption that even Xi has described as “grave” and “shocking.” Why does it seem to have bucked the trend?’
Yuen Yuen Ang | University of Michigan
7/4/2021

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Interview

Tony Saich
Professor, Harvard Kennedy School of Government

Five Themes that Point to Where the Chinese Communist Party & China are Heading

As the Chinese Communist Party begins its second century, it’s useful to identify enduring patterns that might aid us in understanding China today and the directions it might be heading.
7/1/2021

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Interview

Tony Saich
Professor, Harvard Kennedy School of Government

From Rebel to Ruler: One Hundred Years of the Chinese Communist Party by Tony Saich

‘In our discussions, you've identified five themes that have been more or less consistent throughout the history of the party but have oscillated between different points on a continuum:’
7/1/2021

Harvard Magazine

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The Big Ideas

Tony Saich
Professor, Harvard Kennedy School of Government
Ed Steinfeld | Brown University

'From Rebel to Ruler': Tony Saich on Chinese Communism at 100

‘At so many points during its century-long existence, the CCP appeared to be in its death throes, whether as a result of external attack or self-inflicted internal strife.’
Ed Steinfeld | Brown University
7/1/2021

The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China

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The Big Ideas

European Chamber in China: 'Business Confidence Survey'

A mere 9% of European companies are considering moving any current or planned investment out of China, the lowest level on record. Instead, companies are strengthening their positions in JVs, onshoring supply chains and increasing spending to secure market share. The ambition not only to stay but also to expand their China footprint is more than justcapital flooding in due to optimism about growth. Companies are taking action to secure their operations in China and mitigate exposure to geopolitical trends in order to have a better chance of navigating a future that looks to be fraught with risk, at least in the near- to medium-term.
6/27/2021

Project Syndicate

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The Big Ideas

Mike Spence | NYU & Nobel Laureate in Economics

'How China & America Should Compete'

‘China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.’
Mike Spence | NYU & Nobel Laureate in Economics
6/27/2021

Project Syndicate

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The Big Ideas

Ian Buruma

'Jimmy Lai & the Death of Free Speech in Hong Kong'

Jimmy Lai’s tabloid, the Apple Daily, with its peculiar blend of scandal, gossip, and serious political reporting, was Hong Kong’s indispensable voice of free speech. Now that voice has been silenced, and Lai is in prison with others who tried to protect the right of Hong Kong’s citizens to speak and write freely, to be ruled by law, and to vote for their own autonomous government. Their politics are diverse Yet they stand together. When freedom is under siege, people cannot afford the narcissism of small differences that is tearing apart liberal politics in countries where people think democracy can be taken for granted.
Ian Buruma
6/27/2021

the market NZZ

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The Big Ideas

Jörg Wuttke | President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China

'European Companies in China: Between Decoupling and Onshoring'

‘Instead of leaving the market, European companies are exploring ways to separate their China operations from their global ones.’ ‘Following the Covid-19 outbreak, European companies in China spent the first few months of 2020 solemnly appraising their investment strategies.’
Jörg Wuttke | President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China
6/27/2021

Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

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The Big Ideas

Scott Kennedy | Center for Strategic & International Studies

'Congress on China: Then and Now'

‘With the Senate voting on June 8, 2021, to adopt the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act, it is safe to say that this is the most comprehensive action by Congress on China policy EVER.’ ‘The language of the United States Innovation and Competitiveness Act is about a long-term competition with China as opposed to war with an enemy.’
Scott Kennedy | Center for Strategic & International Studies
6/24/2021

Global Times

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The Big Ideas

'Apple Daily closed, but press freedom stays in Hong Kong'

‘Freedom of the press is a good thing. The West's freedom of speech must be consistent with national interests and public security.’
6/24/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong

Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
6/24/2021

South China Morning Post (SCMP)

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The Big Ideas

'Hong Kong’s Apple Daily newspaper folds under government pressure'

Apple Daily was much more than a newspaper. To its fans, it was a defender of freedoms. To its foes, it was the defiler of national sovereignty.’
6/24/2021

Financial Times

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The Big Ideas

'China steps up crackdown on bitcoin mining industry'

‘China’s latest intervention places further pressure on what was once one of the world’s most vibrant markets for trading and mining digital currencies.’ ‘It comes at a time when many governments are scrutinising the industry’s effect on the environment and determining the types of financial oversight that should be applied to cryptocurrencies.’
6/24/2021

Financial Times

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The Big Ideas

Bitcoin’s growing energy problem: ‘It’s a dirty currency'

“Bitcoin alone consumes as much electricity as a medium-sized European country.”
6/24/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

In-Depth

What the West Gets Wrong About China

0

‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’

From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
6/20/2021

Harvard Business Review

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In-Depth

Rana Mitter | Oxford

What the West Gets Wrong About China

1

Part 1 | ‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’

‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’
Rana Mitter | Oxford
6/20/2021

Harvard Business Review

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In-Depth

Rana Mitter | Oxford

What the West Gets Wrong About China

2

Part 2 | ‘Myth 1: Economics and Democracy Are Two Sides of the Same Coin'

‘The truth, then, is that China is not an authoritarian state seeking to become more liberal but an authoritarian state seeking to become more successful—politically as well as economically.’
Rana Mitter | Oxford
6/20/2021

Harvard Business Review

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In-Depth

Rana Mitter | Oxford

What the West Gets Wrong About China

3

Part 3 | ‘Myth 2: Authoritarian Political Systems Can’t Be Legitimate’

‘A Marxist-Leninist system is concerned not only with economic outcomes but also with gaining and maintaining control over the system itself.’ ‘That has huge implications for people seeking to do business in China.’
Rana Mitter | Oxford
6/20/2021

Harvard Business Review

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In-Depth

Rana Mitter | Oxford

What the West Gets Wrong About China

4

Part 4 | ‘Myth 3: The Chinese Live, Work, and Invest Like Westerners’

‘For much of its turbulent modern history, China has been under threat from foreign powers, both within Asia (notably Japan) and outside it (the UK and France in the mid 19th century).’ ‘China’s rulers, therefore, see foreign engagement as a source less of opportunity than of threat, uncertainty, and even humiliation.’
Rana Mitter | Oxford
6/20/2021

The Wall Street Journal

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The Big Ideas

Mike Bird | The Wall Street Journal

'Meet the New Chinese Economy, Same as the Old Chinese Economy'

If a recovery led by investment in real estate and industrial production, with consumption lagging behind, sounds familiar, it may be because the same could be said of the makeup of China’s growth before Covid-19.’
Mike Bird | The Wall Street Journal
6/17/2021

The Wall Street Journal

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The Big Ideas

James T. Areddy | The Wall Street Journal

'Back-to-Back Rebukes of China Mark a Turning Point'

‘The one-two punch of public criticism smacks directly into Mr. Xi’s assertion that China won’t stand for lecturing by other nations, suggesting anxiety in key capitals is prompting governments to seek alignment with the U.S. over attempting to manage the relationship with Beijing on their own.’
James T. Areddy | The Wall Street Journal
6/17/2021

The New York Times

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The Big Ideas

Keith Bradsher | The New York Times

Part 1 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'

‘Beijing is moving swiftly to protect its factories and workplaces from rising costs.’ ‘Still, rising prices in China, by far the world’s biggest manufacturer and exporter, could be felt around the world.’
Keith Bradsher | The New York Times
6/17/2021

The New York Times

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The Big Ideas

Keith Bradsher | The New York Times

Part 2 | 'Is China exporting inflation?'

“Is China exporting inflation? In renminbi terms, it’s not so obvious. But in U.S. dollar terms, it starts to get more sizable.” ’
Keith Bradsher | The New York Times
6/17/2021

Foreign Affairs

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The Big Ideas

Bernie Sanders | United States Senator

Bernie Sanders: 'Don’t Start a New Cold War With China'

‘The pendulum of conventional wisdom in Washington has now swung from being far too optimistic about the opportunities presented by unfettered trade with China to being far too hawkish about the threats posed by the richer, stronger, more authoritarian China that has been one result of that increased trade.’
Bernie Sanders | United States Senator
6/17/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Interview

Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'

Interview: Prestowitz

0

'Forget about China': Clyde Prestowitz

Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'
6/13/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Interview

Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'

Interview: Prestowitz

1

1 | The Interview: Clyde Prestowitz

‘I have spent a lot of time negotiating with countries around the world, but particularly with China, Japan, and Korea, in pursuit of American attempts, to persuade them to change their policies and change their objectives, and the way that they pursue building their economies. And I have come to the conclusion that they're not going to change.'
Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'
6/13/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Interview

Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'

Interview: Prestowitz

2

2 | 'Shame on You'

‘The bottom line really is that if you're a major American company, and you're doing a lot of business in China, effectively, you are contributing to the torture of the weavers, to the crackdown in Hong Kong, to the threat to Taiwan.’
Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'
6/13/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Interview

Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'

Interview: Prestowitz

3

3 | 'Made in America'

‘President Biden made the statement in a speech: “Buy American. Make it in America.” Why can't we make wind turbines in Pittsburgh, as well as in Beijing?’
Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'
6/13/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Interview

Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'

Interview: Prestowitz

4

4 | The Chinese System

'Now, how does The China Daily get into The Washington Post? It gets there because the United Front Work Department of the Chinese Communist Party is funding that. And so it's a whole of society attack.
Clyde Prestowitz | Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute & author of 'The World Turned Upside Down: America, China, and the Struggle for Global Leadership'
6/13/2021

Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Biden China Tracker

Pierre Morcos | Center for Strategic and International Studies

G7 to D10

4

'NATO & China's Challenges to Europe'

‘Even though China does not pose a direct military threat to NATO, contrary to Russia or terrorist groups, Beijing’s growing economic influence and diplomatic assertiveness in Europe coupled with its growing military relationship with Russia do have major implications for the transatlantic economy as well as its security.’
Pierre Morcos | Center for Strategic and International Studies
6/9/2021

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Biden China Tracker

G7 to D10

0

Biden Worries China Might Win

‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
6/9/2021

The Washington Post

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Biden China Tracker

Joe Biden | President of the United States

G7 to D10

1

Joe Biden: 'My trip to Europe is about America rallying the world’s democracies'

‘This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world?’
Joe Biden | President of the United States
6/9/2021

The Atlantic

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Biden China Tracker

Thomas Wright | Brookings

G7 to D10

2

'Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win'

‘Biden worries that China is in competition for America, and not only that—they might win. This belief underpins the Biden doctrine.’
Thomas Wright | Brookings
6/9/2021

The Atlantic Council

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Biden China Tracker

G7 to D10

3

'From the G7 to a D-10: Strengthening democratic cooperation for today's challenges'

‘A “Democratic-10” or “D-10” is aimed at rallying the world’s most powerful democracies around a common cause— advancing a rules-based democratic order based on shared values and common interests.’
6/9/2021

Foreign Policy

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Risks & Trends

Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'

China's Grand Strategy

1

1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'

‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'

China's Grand Strategy

2

2 | Blame It on Xi

‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'

China's Grand Strategy

3

3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’

‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'

China's Grand Strategy

4

4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy

‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'

China's Grand Strategy

5

5 | Two Caveats

‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'

China's Grand Strategy

6

6 | The Risks & the Dangers

‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
6/3/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

China's Grand Strategy

0

Killing China's Grand Strategy

Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
6/3/2021

Brookings

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

7

Postscript: China Doubts U.S. Allies Support

'Chinese leadership is also cynical about the effectiveness of a U.S.-led Cold War-style bloc.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

Brookings

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Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

3

China's ‘Anti-Hegemonist Bloc’

‘To counter U.S. coalition building, China has enhanced its diplomatic, economic, and military relationship with both Russia and Iran in recent months, resulting in the closest ties these countries have had in the post-Cold War era.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

0

What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy

And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
5/30/2021

Brookings

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

6

'Final Thoughts'

'Just as Brzezinski foresaw the two new contending blocs –– requiring greater “geostrategic skill” –– that are forming today, Kissinger has emphasized the unprecedented dangers that AI could introduce into a divided world.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

Brookings

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

5

Worse for China than Trump

‘Many Chinese now believe that the Biden administration could be more detrimental to U.S.-China relations than the Trump administration.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

Brookings

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

4

The Trump Legacy

‘From Beijing’s perspective, the hawkish approach to China in the final year of the Trump administration revealed that the Trump team sought to defeat and destroy China in much the same way that the United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

Brookings

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

1

'Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?'

‘Senior officials on the foreign policy team have frequently emphasized three “C” words: competition, cooperation, and confrontation.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

Brookings

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s China strategy

2

Biden’s ‘Anti-China Bloc’

‘Throughout President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office, his administration has largely continued the Trump administration’s hawkish approach toward China.’ ‘President Biden has also made international coalition building to confront the growing power and influence of China his primary foreign policy initiative.’ ‘Chinese leaders and the public are not convinced by the statements recently made by President Biden that these U.S.-led alliances are “not anti-Chinese” and that the United States is “not looking for confrontation” with China.’
Cheng Li
Director, Brookings Institution, John L. Thornton China Center
5/30/2021

Project Syndicate

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

China's demographic challenges

5

'Sex and the Chinese Economy'

‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
Shang-Jin Wei
Professor, Columbia University & former Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank
5/27/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

China's demographic challenges

0

'Demography + Technology is Destiny'

The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
5/27/2021

Bloomberg

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

China's demographic challenges

4

'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'

‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
5/27/2021

Bloomberg

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

China's demographic challenges

2

'China: Births Falling'

‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
5/27/2021

Financial Times

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Gideon Rachman | Financial Times

China's demographic challenges

3

'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'

‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
Gideon Rachman | Financial Times
5/27/2021

Foreign Affairs

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute

China's demographic challenges

4

'China: Getting Old Before Getting Rich'

‘Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility, exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs.’ ‘With decades of extremely low fertility in its immediate past, decades more of that to come, and no likelihood of mass immigration, China will see its population peak by 2027.’
Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute
5/27/2021

Foreign Affairs

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute

China's demographic challenges

1

'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'

‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’
Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute
5/27/2021

The New York Times

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Jack Nicas, Raymond Zhong, & Daisuke Wakabayashi | The New York Times

Apple in China

1

‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’

‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
Jack Nicas, Raymond Zhong, & Daisuke Wakabayashi | The New York Times
5/20/2021

Wall Street Journal

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Apple in China

5

'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'

‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
5/20/2021

The New York Times

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Jack Nicas, Raymond Zhong, & Daisuke Wakabayashi | The New York Times

Apple in China

2

'Apple in China: No Plan B'

“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
Jack Nicas, Raymond Zhong, & Daisuke Wakabayashi | The New York Times
5/20/2021

The New York Times

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Apple in China

3

'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'

“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
5/20/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Apple in China

0

Apple in China

‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
5/20/2021

Nikkei Asian Review

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Apple in China

4

'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'

"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
5/20/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

After Xi

0

After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World

A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
5/15/2021

Trivium

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Invitation to a Trivium Flash Talk: 'China's Data Environment from a Big-Picture Perspective.’

‘This talk is designed to cut through the tech and legal jargon, and lay out the top-level strategic rationale underpinning China's thinking on data. We'll cover:’
5/15/2021

Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

CHINADebate

Risks & Trends

Richard McGregor | Lowy Institute

After Xi

1

'After Xi: China's potentially destabilising succession crisis'

‘By removing de jure term limits on the office of the presidency — and thus far refusing to nominate his successor for this and his other leadership positions — Xi has solidified his own authority at the expense of the most important political reform of the last four decades: the regular and peaceful transfer of power.’ ‘In doing so, he has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce.’
Richard McGregor | Lowy Institute
5/15/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

Interview

Roger Garside | former British diplomat in Beijing, development banker, & capital market development advisor, and author of 'Coming Alive: China After Mao' and a new book 'China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom.'

'Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative.'

‘We must make regime change in China the highest goal of our strategy towards that country.’ ‘The US and its allies cannot dictate to China the political system by which it is governed. But they can and must engineer conditions which embolden and enable those in China who also want regime change to achieve it.’
Roger Garside | former British diplomat in Beijing, development banker, & capital market development advisor, and author of 'Coming Alive: China After Mao' and a new book 'China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom.'
5/15/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

The Poem that Cost Billions

The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
5/12/2021

Bloomberg

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

'A 1,100-Year-Old Poem Cost Meituan’s Outspoken CEO US $2.5 Billions'

‘On Monday, because of an 1,100-year old poem about events 2,200 years ago posted by the founder of food delivery giant Meituan, investors panicked, and sank the company’s market cap by $15.6 billion. And Meituan CEO Wang Xing, who posted the poem, lost $2.5 billion of his wealth.’
5/10/2021

The Wire China

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

Hannah Reale

'The Housing Bubble That Just Won’t Pop'

‘China’s cities are plagued by a diverging trend: high demand and exorbitant prices for residential properties in tier 1 cities and yet an oversupply in smaller, lower-tiered cities.’
Hannah Reale
5/9/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

In-Depth

The most dangerous place on Earth

0

'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'

‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
5/7/2021

GZERO

CHINADebate

In-Depth

Ian Bremmer | Eurasia Group

The most dangerous place on Earth

2

'Would China really invade Taiwan?'

‘Is Taiwan really "the most dangerous place on earth?" No. Or at least, not right now.’
Ian Bremmer | Eurasia Group
5/6/2021

NBCNews

CHINADebate

In-Depth

The most dangerous place on Earth

5

'China Threat: A "perception gap" between the U.S. and Taiwan'

‘While the U.S. talks up the medium-term military threat, the democratic island sees the moves as part of a bigger, more immediate problem: "gray zone" warfare from Beijing that is meant to wear down the morale of not just the Taiwanese military, but also the island's people.’
5/5/2021

Financial Times

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

Jamil Anderlini | Financial Times

'Western companies in China succumb to Stockholm syndrome'

‘Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a point when he calls Delta Air Lines “the height of hypocrisy” for opposing voter legislation in the US state of Georgia while partnering with a government he accuses of being “actively engaged in genocide” in Xinjiang.’
Jamil Anderlini | Financial Times
5/5/2021

Foreign Affairs

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

Tobias Harris | Center for American Progress

'The Surprising Strength of Chinese-Japanese Ties'

At their summit in April, ‘after years of veiled messaging Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga U.S. President Joe Biden, ‘formally acknowledged that they are working together to deter China’s military power in Asia and compete with China economically.’
Tobias Harris | Center for American Progress
5/4/2021

Project Syndicate

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

'How Will the Digital Renminbi Change China?'

‘China's new digital renminbi by itself will not help the currency to challenge the US dollar’s global dominance.’ ‘Its true significance instead lies in its potential to shift the competitive balance of power between the country’s technology giants and traditional banks.’
Shang-Jin Wei
Professor, Columbia University & former Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank
5/3/2021

CHINADebate

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

'Fanning the Flames of War'

I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
5/2/2021

Global Asia

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

Kishore Mahbubani | National University of Singapore & author of 'Has China Won?'

‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure’

‘A trend for hostility toward China, inflamed under Trump, is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘Hostility toward China, much of it misinformed historically and strategically, has deepened in the United States in recent years, with a consensus hardening among both Republicans and Democrats that China is at root an adversary that must be thwarted.’ ‘Four years under President Donald Trump have enlarged and inflamed that trend, but it is a recipe for American failure.’ ‘The Joe Biden administration needs to seriously rethink Washington’s approach to Beijing.’
Kishore Mahbubani | National University of Singapore & author of 'Has China Won?'
5/2/2021

The Economist

CHINADebate

In-Depth

The most dangerous place on Earth

1

'The most dangerous place on Earth'

‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
5/1/2021

IMF

CHINADebate

The Big Ideas

Gita Gopinath | Economic Counsellor & Director of the Research Department, IMF

'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'

‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
Gita Gopinath | Economic Counsellor & Director of the Research Department, IMF
4/30/2021

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PRC

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Wang Wenbin | Foreign Ministry Spokesperson

Biden’s First 100 Days

3

'China's Response to Biden's Speech'

‘It is natural for the two sides to have competition in some fields, but we should advocate fair competition, like competing with each other for excellence in a racing field, not beating each other on a wrestling arena.’
Wang Wenbin | Foreign Ministry Spokesperson
4/29/2021

The New York Times

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

David Sanger | The New York Times

Biden’s First 100 Days

2

'Biden's Speech Calls for U.S. to Take On China and Russia'

‘President Biden justified his broad vision to remake the American economy as the necessary step to survive long-run competition with China
David Sanger | The New York Times
4/29/2021

ChinaDebate

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s First 100 Days

0

Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
4/29/2021

Bloomberg

CHINADebate

Biden China Tracker

Biden’s First 100 Days

1

'What Joe Biden Said About China in His First Speech to Joint Session of Congress'

“We’re in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st Century.”
4/28/2021
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