CHINAMacroReporter

Xi Jinping: 'The East is Rising' | Yes. Rising against China

All our careful analyses of PLA capabilities, the parsing of Mr. Xi’s and Mr. Biden’s statements, the predictions as to the year of the invasion, everything – all out the window. This is one you won’t see coming – but one you have to have prepared for.
keep reading

CHINARoundtable

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

'The air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’

‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom Orlik


Join us at the CHINARoundtable where Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, will discuss:

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

In 2020, our guest speaker, Tom Orlik, published China: The Bubble That Never Pops to great acclaim.

  • Then just two years later so much had changed that he published an update.

As he explains in his recent Bloomberg essay ‘The China Bubble Is Losing Air But Won’t Burst’:

  • ‘If China is in for a hard landing, the consequences would be cataclysmic for the financial system and economy; for the ruling Communist Party; for global markets.’

‘Amid the host of potential losers, spare a thought for the author who—in 2020—published a book with the provocative title China: The Bubble That Never Pops.’

  • ‘I made the case that the country’s economic and financial system is more resilient, and its policymakers more ingenious, than critics in Washington and on Wall Street would have you believe.’

‘In the two years since, that thesis has undergone an extreme stress test.’

  • ‘Some might say it’s failed.’

‘In the second edition of my book, I take a different view.’

  • Yes, the air is coming out of the China bubble at a faster pace.’
  • ‘But no, it’s not going to pop.’

Tom will give us his latest thinking on the Chinese economy at the upcoming CHINARoundtable.

Tom Orlik is Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics.

  • He was formerly the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
  • Before turning to journalism, he worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund.
  • Tom earned a Master of Public Policy degree from the Harvard Kennedy School.
  • Besides China: The Bubble That Never Pops, he is also the author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities.
  • And Tom lived in China for 10 years.

Look forward to hearing your comments and your questions for Tom on December 1.

China's Economy: 'The Bubble That Never Pops' [?]

Thursday, December 1

  • 1:00pm-2:30pm ET
  • Zoom

More

CHINAMacroReporter

China GDP: 'A very long period of Japan-style low growth.’

Here are some of the insights from ‘The Only Five Paths China’s Economy Can Follow’ by Peking University’s Michael Pettis. This excellent analysis of China’s economy is worth a careful reading.
May 14, 2022

'Zero Covid' & the Shanghai lockdown

Joerg Wuttke is the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China - the 'official voice of European business in China.'
May 1, 2022

Is China's Tech 'Crackdown' Really Over?

Today, I’m sharing with you a bit of Ms. Schaefer’s analysis of the tech ‘crackdown’ (but not of the AI and algorithm law). She explains why...
April 17, 2022

China: 'Sleep Walking into Sanctions?'

A looming risk is Russia-like sanctions on China. The sanctions on Russia are causing plenty of disruptions. But those disruptions would be nothing compared to the catastrophe of Russia-like sanctions on China. The good news is that if China does violate the sanctions, the violations would likely be narrow and specific - even unintentional. So secondary sanctions - if they come at all - likely won't hit China’s economy and financial system deeply – or (fingers crossed) U.S.-China relations.
April 17, 2022

Russian Sanctions' Impact on China

In the meantime, some contend, China has a payment system, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System or CIPS, that could make it independent of SWIFT.
April 5, 2022

Faint Cracks

For some time now we’ve taken it for granted that Xi Jinping has so consolidated his power that his will is China policy.
March 21, 2022