Debate: Four Experts And A Poll On What China’s Weak April Numbers Mean

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 15, 2012

Experts differ on what China’s weak April economic numbers. Here are four plus a Reuters poll.

1.  ’China Needs More Fiscal Stimulus: Dariusz Kowalczyk on Bloomberg video

2. China lacks the firepower to avoid slowdown: JPMorgan, Adrian Mowat on Reuters video

3.  China’s Tight-Rope Walk: Balancing the Contradictions in Chinese Growth:  Max Fisher

4.   ’Analysis: China Growth Risks Signal Need For Fiscal Action’: Nick Edwards

5.  Reuters Poll: China Growth to Bottom in Second Quarter More

‘Local Government Financing Growing Increasingly Precarious’ By Eve Cary

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 13, 2012

China’s economy is going slower than most expected. But not me. I am seeing among things a new mini infrastructure stimulus in the works, and this will take at least a quarter to kick in. This one will be much more more targeted than the first. But, whether or not the proposed projects and those in the pipeline actually move–and stoke GDP–depends in large part on the ability of local governments to secure debt for them.

It’s possible that as China has rolled over much of the local debt acquired in the first stimulus, new space for local borrowing has opened up. Especially when the Central Government wants new investment to boost GDP. And, in any case, in this casino, the players and the house are for the most part one and the same. That said, even the house here may have ‘a limit.

Putting local debt in perspective is ‘Local Government Financing Growing Increasingly Precarious’ by Eve Cary of Brookings and focuses on local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). After a thorough review of LGFVs and their abuses, Ms. Cary gets to the core problems and dangers: More

‘Blind Leading The Blind’ Washington Post

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 12, 2012

Here’s an animation from the Washington Post, with the caption ‘The U.S. misreads the Chinese government, showing, I guess, just how badly the U.S. mislead Chen Guangcheng and brought him to new woes:

According to my understanding, if such an animation were to convey the facts of the situation, Mr. Chen would be in the lead. But, I might be wrong.

Just as sometimes I miss the point of editorials. And when I do I blame myself. I think maybe I don’t have enough background or insight. Or, I am somehow not reading carefully.

This might be true for ‘America’s Outdated View Of China’ in the Washington Post. Because I don’t get it. More

‘MOFCOM’s “Fusion” Approach to Chinese Merger Control’ By Becky Koblitz

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 11, 2012

Yasue (Becky) Nao Koblitz

In March, CHINA Debate published ‘Many Major Deals Need China’s Approval–And Uncertainty Widens Spreads, As Well As Opportunities For Arbitragers.’ This post described the workings of the Ministry of Commerce’s Anti-Monopoly Bureau, as best can be discerned.

Now, for another view, ‘MOFCOM’s “Fusion” Approach to Chinese Merger Control‘ by Becky Koblitz. Her contention is that the Anti-Monopoly Bureau does not diverge from other jurisdictions practices, but instead fuses what it takes to be the best practices from those jurisdictions–’MOFCOM practices “fusion” merger control as it blends two aspects: its mandate under the Anti-Monopoly Law (“AML”), and the antitrust theories of other jurisdictions.’ More

Ben Shobert And China Senior Care

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 10, 2012

Ben Shobert

I have gotten a little behind in my reading of Ben Shobert’s recent excellent articles in Asia Healthcare Blog on senior care in China. Here are the last four:

And, here they are again, with a snippet from each. More

James Dorn, Mao Yushi, And ‘China’s Dilemma: Power vs Freedom’

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 9, 2012

Dr. James Dorn

At a recent Brookings/Caixin dinner, I met James Dorn of the Cato Institute, where he serves as vice president for academic affairs, editor of the Cato Journal, and director of Cato’s annual monetary conference. We had a brief but intriguing conversation, and this led me to investigate Dr. Dorn’s writings.

Among the many excellent pieces, I was especially struck by ‘China’s Dilemma: Power vs Freedom.’ In it, Dr. Dorn contends:

China’s dilemma is that if the CCP wants to improve the quality of life, it must allow greater freedom of choice, but that will threaten its monopoly on power — thus the struggle between power and freedom. Ai Weiwei, perhaps China’s most famous dissident, aptly notes, “In a society like this there is no negotiation, no discussion, except to tell you that power can crush you.”

Dr. Dorn also introduces Mao Yushi, founder of the Unirule Institute of Economicsand winner this year of the Milton Friedman Prize for Advancing Liberty:

What China needs most is not democracy but limited government and the rule of law. That is why Mao Yushi founded The Unirule Institute of Economics in Beijing in 1993, to promote what Nobel Laureate economist F. A. Hayek called “the constitution of liberty.” On May 4, Mao will be the first Chinese scholar to receive the prestigious Milton Friedman Prize for Advancing Liberty, awarded every two years by the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. (It is uncertain whether he will be allowed to attend.) [He did attend.]

Here is an excellent video by Dr. Dorn about Mao Yushi and his work.

And, for more on Mao Yushi’s current views, please see ‘Economist Mao Yushi on why the Chinese government is not evil‘ in Foreign Policy.

Chen Guangcheng a la Stephen Colbert

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 8, 2012

For a predictably different take on Chen Guangcheng, I give you Stephen Colbert:

Probably a good thing that Mr. Colbert did not accompany Secretary Clinton to China.

James Bond In Shanghai

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 7, 2012

I have been fortunate to do the two things I wanted most in life. First, when I was child, my grandparents returned from living Taiwan, where my grandfather worked on land reform. They lived nearby and their stories about Chinese and Chinese ways and visits by their Chinese friends left me with a firm conviction that I would spend my life in Asia. Then, when I was twelve I saw Dr. No and knew that I wanted to be James Bond.

Asia more than met my expectations. Being a CIA spy was a little less glamorous than the movies, but still pretty great.

Now, I learned today from the Shanghiist that the new Bond movie, Skyfall is being filmed, in part in Shanghai. My worlds come together. Here’s a behind the scenes clip:

FYI Skyfall is also shot in Istanbul. Another of my favorite cities.

‘Chen Affair Highlights Christian Ties’

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 6, 2012

Pastor Bob Fu

As I followed Chen Guangcheng’s story this, I admit that I sort of skipped over references to Bob Fu, the Christian pastor in Texas who left China to escape persecution. I am now in the process of reassessing his role in this process. But, more than that I am reassessing the role of Christian ‘house’ churches in China and their possible on U.S. policy, especially in an election year. More

‘Structural Reforms and China’s Economy China, China’s Economy, China’s Currency’: Brookings/Caixin

Posted by Malcolm Riddell on May 5, 2012

Dr. Vikram Nehru

Last Wednesday, I attended ‘Structural Reforms and China’s Economy,’ a joint conference by Brookings Institute and Caixin Media–excellent under the able guidance of Ken Lieberthal of Brookings and Hu Shuli of Caixin.

You can find both the audio and several of the presentations here. And, here’s a description of what you will find:

On May 1, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings and Caixin Media hosted a conference examining China’s major economic policy challenges, the substance of economic reform measures and the issues concerning their implementation. The first panel examined the reforms China should adopt to avoid the middle-income trap and the growing role of civil society in encouraging economic reforms. The second panel focused on the priorities for significant structural adjustments to address key issues such rising labor costs, low household consumption, rapid urbanization, inefficient domestic investment, and international competition.

Transcripts to follow.

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