In-Depth

Apple in China
1

‘Censorship, Surveillance and Profits: A Hard Bargain for Apple in China’

‘Apple built the world’s most valuable business on top of China. Now it has to answer to the Chinese government.’
May 20, 2021
The New York Times
Jack Nicas, Raymond Zhong, & Daisuke Wakabayashi | The New York Times
Apple in China
5

'Tim Cook and Apple Bet Everything on China.'

‘For Apple, a clean break with China is impossible.’
May 20, 2021
Wall Street Journal

Apple in China
2

'Apple in China: No Plan B'

“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
May 20, 2021
The New York Times
Jack Nicas, Raymond Zhong, & Daisuke Wakabayashi | The New York Times
Apple in China
3

'Apple Reaches $2 Trillion'

“This business model only really fits and works in China. But then you’re married to China.” ‘The Chinese government was starting to pass laws that gave the country greater leverage over Apple, and Mr. Xi would soon start seeking concessions. Apple had no Plan B.’
May 20, 2021
The New York Times

Apple in China
0

Apple in China

‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
May 20, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Apple in China
4

'Apple held hostage by its Chinese puzzle'

"The massive and complete supply chain ecosystem in China is key to the iPhone maker's success, but it has also created a gigantic organism that would struggle to move somewhere else."
May 20, 2021
Nikkei Asian Review

The most dangerous place on Earth
0

'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'

‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
May 7, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
The most dangerous place on Earth
2

'Would China really invade Taiwan?'

‘Is Taiwan really "the most dangerous place on earth?" No. Or at least, not right now.’
May 6, 2021
GZERO
Ian Bremmer | Eurasia Group
The most dangerous place on Earth
5

'China Threat: A "perception gap" between the U.S. and Taiwan'

‘While the U.S. talks up the medium-term military threat, the democratic island sees the moves as part of a bigger, more immediate problem: "gray zone" warfare from Beijing that is meant to wear down the morale of not just the Taiwanese military, but also the island's people.’
May 5, 2021
NBCNews
The most dangerous place on Earth
1

'The most dangerous place on Earth'

‘Taiwan is an arena for the rivalry between China and America.’ ‘Although the United States is not treaty-bound to defend Taiwan, a Chinese assault would be a test of America’s military might and its diplomatic and political resolve.’
May 1, 2021
The Economist
The most dangerous place on Earth
3

'Another China-Related Risk for Investors & Corporations: Taiwan'

"Taiwan poses the biggest geopolitical risk in Asia and is likely to only increase, a reason it has to be built into investors’ [and corporates' models]" according to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal.
Apr 14, 2021
Barron’s

The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World

In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
Apr 14, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate

In Battle With U.S. for Global Sway, China Showers Money on Europe’s Neglected Areas

‘The number of freight trains running between China and Europe topped 12,400 last year, 50% higher than in 2019 and seven times that of 2016, according to Chinese authorities.’
Apr 13, 2021
The Wall Street Journal
The most dangerous place on Earth
4

'Don't Help China By Hyping Risk Of War Over Taiwan'

‘China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict.’ ‘Beijing's goal is to constantly remind Taiwan's people of its growing power, induce pessimism about Taiwan's future, deepen splits within the island's political system and show that outside powers are impotent to counter its flexes.' ‘Its approach is guided by the Chinese aphorism, "Once ripe, the melon will drop from its stem [瓜熟蒂落]," ’‘This strategy may require more time than war, but it would come at less cost and risk to Beijing.’
Apr 8, 2021
NPR
Richard Bush | Brookings (retired)
Bonnie Glaser | German Marshall Fund in America
Ryan Hass | Brookings Institution

China: 'Power Trader'

‘The theory of power trade better explains China’s economic and trade policies than does the theory of free trade or protectionism,’
Apr 7, 2021
The International Economy
Robert D. Atkinson | president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

'Consumer boycotts warn of trouble ahead for Western firms in China'

‘Western executives in China cannot shake an unsettling fear that this time is different.’‘Their lucrative Chinese operations are at rising risk of tumbling into the political chasm that has opened between the West and China.’
Mar 31, 2021
The Economist

Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries

‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
Mar 31, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate

'China Owns, Partially Owns, or Operates 93 Ports'

‘Chinese firms own, partially own, or operate at least ninety-three ports across the globe.’
Mar 31, 2021
Council on Foreign Relations
Task Force Report on China’s Belt & Road

'How the Pandemic is Changing the Belt & Road Initiative'

‘The building of roads, railways, ports, and power plants is giving way to a BRI centered on technology—primarily telecommunications, connectivity, health care, and financial services.’
Mar 31, 2021
Council on Foreign Relations
Task Force Report on China’s Belt & Road

'Dominating the Digital Silk Road'

‘China’s Belt and Road Portal reports the Digital Silk Road has enabled six thousand Chinese internet companies and more than ten thousand Chinese technology products to enter foreign markets.’
Mar 31, 2021
Council on Foreign Relations
Task Force Report on China’s Belt & Road

'The Threat the U.S. Isn't Answering'

‘If BRI meets little competition or resistance, Beijing could become the hub of global trade, set important technical standards that would disadvantage non-Chinese companies, lock countries into carbon-intensive power generation, have greater influence over countries’ political decisions, and acquire more power-projection capabilities for its military.’
Mar 31, 2021
Council on Foreign Relations

'Profit or principle is the hard choice for foreign companies in China' George Magnus

‘Business risks for foreign companies in China are increasing after the recent exchange of sanctions between Beijing and western governments.’‘For foreign companies in China, the options seem delicately balanced. If they stand up for principles, they may put revenues at risk and will incur extra costs as they develop new supply chains. Yet if they prioritise their China profits, they could do irretrievable damage to their brands at home and in other markets, falling foul of shareholders and changing governance requirements.’‘It is an invidious choice but the latter is likely to be far more damaging to longer term performance and earnings, and corrosive of trust in the brand.’
Mar 30, 2021
Financial Times
George Magnus | University of Oxford

'How China keeps stumbling on the global stage' John Pomfret

‘Across the globe, Xi’s diplomatic representatives in Europe, Beijing, Hong Kong, Canada, Australia and elsewhere, are lifting up rocks and smashing their own feet.’‘The moves are befuddling — with a buoyant economy and a practically covid-free country, China is poised to see its influence rise if it plays it smart. But it’s not; instead, it’s alienating individuals and nations across the world.’‘I’ve been studying China for my entire adult life and I have to admit to being bewildered by China’s performance.’‘But I’m in good company. Thirty-one years ago, the great political scientist Lucian Pye wrote, “Just when all appears to be going well, Chinese officials create problems for seemingly unaccountable reasons.” ’
Mar 30, 2021
The Washington Post
John Pomfret
Beijing Targets American Business
1

Beijing Targets American Business-1

‘Beijing’s message is unmistakable: You must choose.’‘If you want to do business in China, it must be at the expense of American values. ‘‘You will meticulously ignore the genocide of ethnic and religious minorities inside China’s borders; you must disregard that Beijing has reneged on its major promises—including the international treaty guaranteeing a “high degree of autonomy” for Hong Kong; and you must stop engaging with security-minded officials in your own capital unless it’s to lobby them on Beijing’s behalf.’
Mar 26, 2021
The Wall Street Journal
Matt Pottinger | former Deputy National Security Advisor
Beijing Targets American Business
2

Beijing Targets American Business-2

'American businessmen, wishing for simple, lucrative commercial ties, have long resisted viewing U.S.-China relations as an ideological struggle. But strategic guidance issued by the leaders of both countries make clear the matter is settled: The ideological dimension of the competition is inescapable, even central.'
Mar 26, 2021
The Wall Street Journal
Matt Pottinger | former Deputy National Security Advisor

'H&M, Nike Pay With China Boycotts on Xinjiang Human Rights Stance'

‘While both Western and Asian companies have frequently been targets of Chinese nationalism over the years, the latest flurry signals a shift in strategy by President Xi Jinping’s government as it confronts a more unified approach from the U.S. and its allies.’
Mar 26, 2021
Bloomberg
U.S. - EU Coalitions
3

China explains why it is going all 'Wolf Warrior' on the EU

China has found that bullying works a lot of the time, Why is China engaging in "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy
Mar 25, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate

How to Meet the China Challenge

How the Biden administration characterizes the China – strategic competitor, rival, enemy, and the like – and how it develops strategies – containment, confrontation, competition, cooperation, or some combination of these - will have an impact, to a greater or lesser degree, on most every industry and every market.
Mar 17, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
NSCAI: Final Report
0

China, Ai, & the Coming U.S. Industrial Policy

‘The government will have to orchestrate policies to promote innovation; protect industries and sectors critical to national security; recruit and train talent; incentivize domestic research, development, and production across a range of technologies deemed essential for national security and economic prosperity; and marshal coalitions of allies and partners to support democratic norms.'
Mar 11, 2021
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence
NSCAI: Final Report
2

Then There are Semiconductors

‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
Mar 11, 2021
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence
NSCAI: Final Report
3

For Industrial Policy: National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan

‘While American companies pioneered semiconductors and still dominate chip design, many have outsourced the actual fabrication of chips, mostly to Asia.’
Mar 11, 2021
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence
NSCAI: Final Report
1

Artificial Intelligence: How to Beat China

‘China is organized, resourced, and determined to win the technology competition. AI is central to China’s global expansion, economic and military power, and domestic stability.’
Mar 11, 2021
The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
Mar 4, 2021
CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate
Malcolm Riddell
Founder of CHINADebate

'Is China experiencing an advance of the state sector?'

‘The value-added produced by state-owned enterprises has usually been in the range of 25-30% of China’s GDP. And what’s really striking about those numbers is that they just haven’t changed very much over the past 25 years. The share of China’s economic output being produced by SOEs today, under Xi Jinping, is not significantly different than it was under Hu Jintao, or even in the later years of Jiang Zemin.’
Feb 16, 2021
Andrew Batson's Blog
Andrew Batson | Gavekal Dragonomics

'The Biden Team Wants to Transform the Economy. Really.'

‘Biden and his more activist advisers hope to modernize key industries and counter an economic threat from China, swiftly emerging as the world’s other superpower. “The package that they put together is the closest thing we’ve had to a broad industrial policy for generations, really,” says Scott Paul, the president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.’
Feb 11, 2021
The New York Times