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2017 China Property Report

February 12, 2018
Robert Ciemniak
Real Estate Foresight

One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.

China December house price growth

In December, new home (“commercial residential”) sales by developers increased (in GFA) by +5.3% year-to-date year-on-year (yes - still the same figure as the weighted price year-on-year growth), compared to+5.4% in November.

New home sales slowed down, 2017 the strongest ever in annual sales

In December, new home (“commercial residential”) sales by developers increased (in GFA) by +5.3% year-to-date year-on-year (yes - still the same figure as the weighted price year-on-year growth), compared to+5.4% in November.

Land sales growth strong, but from relatively low levels

Land acquisition by developers (measured in the construction area) increased by +15.8% year-to-date year-on-year, compared to +16.3%in November. This is a strong pickup in land sales in 2017, though from relatively low absolute levels after the earlier declines.

One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.

Monthly property market indicators (October vs September)

Real Estate Foresight has published the flagship monthly China Property report for November 2017, the most comprehensive analysis of the China housing markets, covering house prices, sales volumes, inventory, land sales, construction indicators, developer performance and an extensive range of macro indicators, as well as the Western media sentiment.

Price Change for 70 Cities 12M vs 3M (October 2017)

Volume growth decelerated further in September across tiers

Price Change for 70 Cities 12M vs 3M (September 2017)

China housing: What’s changed Jan vs Jun 2017?

This chart shows what really changed in the China housing market between January and June this year, using the year-on-year house price growth rates for 70 cities (NBS data). Back in January, there were quite a few cities in the 20%+ bucket. They subsequently cooled off, while the longer tail rose across, slightly. From our monthly China Property report for July.

Real Estate Foresight has published the flagship monthly China CityScreener(TM) report for November 2017, a data-driven analysis of the housing markets at the city-level across 70+ major cities in China. Beihai, Xi’an stand out on price growth over the recent 3- and 12-month periods, with the cities in the North East performing particularly (relatively) well, esp. Harbin. The 70+ page report and chart book is available to China Forecast subscribers only (directly and via Bloomberg/Thomson Reuters), free trials available on request.
Robert Ciemniak

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst
Real Estate Foresight
  • Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight Ltd
  • Global Head of Real Estate Markets, Thomson Reuters
  • International Master in Chess
Real Estate Foresight

Real Estate Foresight

FOR INVESTORS, FUND MANAGERS, LENDERS, DEVELOPERS & CORPORATES

We apply advanced data analytics tools and combine data science and technology with on-the-ground research, with a track record in accurately forecasting the Chinese housing markets.

  • Spot the turning points in the cycle
  • Pick the right cities and districts
  • Verify your critical project assumptions
  • Monitor your project
  • Communicate to your stakeholders
  • Stay on top of the news cycles

Channels

AsiaStrat
Granite Peak Advisory
Track Research
Trivium China
Gao Feng
Real Estate Foresight
China Beige Book

All Analyses by

Real Estate Foresight

2017 China Property Report

2017 China Property Report

One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.

So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story

So many twists and turns to the China Housing markets story

Almost everyone on the outside seems to have missed the biggest bull market in China housing in 2016, culminating in policy tightening cycle kicking in at the end of the year. But what's next?

China’s property market risks are rising, says data expert

China’s property market risks are rising, says data expert

Price trends in China’s housing market are unsustainable, according to Real Estate Foresight chief executive Robert Ciemniak who worries that excessive leverage among homeowners could lead to a crisis. Real Estate Foresight founder and chief executive Robert Ciemniak has made it his business to gather and interpret real time data on China’s residential property market. He gives his thoughts on what’s to come in China’s housing market.

Applying AI / Machine Learning To Identify Patterns In China Housing Markets

Applying AI / Machine Learning To Identify Patterns In China Housing Markets

Real Estate Foresight has published a series of notes to clients under the theme “In Pursuit of Patterns”, revealing some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) found among the key indicators for the China’s housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks

China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?

China housing: boom, bust, or bubble-or...?

100s of Cities Bubble Up & Down As Policy Makers Press the Levers China hasn’t collapsed. And, the bubble hasn’t burst because there may not be just one big real estate bubble. Instead, there are 100s of sizable cities, each moving in its own cycle, each responding to how its local policymakers stimulate & tighten-stimulate & tighten, and each having performance divergent from that of other cities. Watch here to see how city-level markets bubble up and bubble down...

Robert Ciemniak

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst
Real Estate Foresight
  • Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight Ltd
  • Global Head of Real Estate Markets, Thomson Reuters
  • International Master in Chess
Real Estate Foresight

Real Estate Foresight

FOR INVESTORS, FUND MANAGERS, LENDERS, DEVELOPERS & CORPORATES

We apply advanced data analytics tools and combine data science and technology with on-the-ground research, with a track record in accurately forecasting the Chinese housing markets.

  • Spot the turning points in the cycle
  • Pick the right cities and districts
  • Verify your critical project assumptions
  • Monitor your project
  • Communicate to your stakeholders
  • Stay on top of the news cycles

Channels

AsiaStrat
Granite Peak Advisory
Track Research
Trivium China
Gao Feng
Real Estate Foresight
China Beige Book