2017 China Property Report

One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.

China December house price growth

In December, new home (“commercial residential”) sales by developers increased (in GFA) by +5.3% year-to-date year-on-year (yes - still the same figure as the weighted price year-on-year growth), compared to+5.4% in November.

New home sales slowed down, 2017 the strongest ever in annual sales

In December, new home (“commercial residential”) sales by developers increased (in GFA) by +5.3% year-to-date year-on-year (yes - still the same figure as the weighted price year-on-year growth), compared to+5.4% in November.

Land sales growth strong, but from relatively low levels

Land acquisition by developers (measured in the construction area) increased by +15.8% year-to-date year-on-year, compared to +16.3%in November. This is a strong pickup in land sales in 2017, though from relatively low absolute levels after the earlier declines.

One of the highlights in our recent 'In Pursuit of Patterns' series of client notes, showed that the land sales growth had tended to lead the price growth and a significant increase in land sales would lead, with a lag, to the subsequent correction in prices.

Monthly property market indicators (October vs September)

Real Estate Foresight has published the flagship monthly China Property report for November 2017, the most comprehensive analysis of the China housing markets, covering house prices, sales volumes, inventory, land sales, construction indicators, developer performance and an extensive range of macro indicators, as well as the Western media sentiment.

Price Change for 70 Cities 12M vs 3M (October 2017)

Volume growth decelerated further in September across tiers

Price Change for 70 Cities 12M vs 3M (September 2017)

China housing: What’s changed Jan vs Jun 2017?

This chart shows what really changed in the China housing market between January and June this year, using the year-on-year house price growth rates for 70 cities (NBS data). Back in January, there were quite a few cities in the 20%+ bucket. They subsequently cooled off, while the longer tail rose across, slightly. From our monthly China Property report for July.

Real Estate Foresight has published the flagship monthly China CityScreener(TM) report for November 2017, a data-driven analysis of the housing markets at the city-level across 70+ major cities in China. Beihai, Xi’an stand out on price growth over the recent 3- and 12-month periods, with the cities in the North East performing particularly (relatively) well, esp. Harbin. The 70+ page report and chart book is available to China Forecast subscribers only (directly and via Bloomberg/Thomson Reuters), free trials available on request.
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