Malcolm Riddell

As investment banker, lawyer, diplomat, Harvard academic, and CIA spy, Malcolm Riddell has participated in China’s rise to international economic and political power for almost 40 years.

As investment banker, diplomat, lawyer, Harvard academic, and CIA spy, I have been involved with China for almost 40 years. And even longer, if you go back to my fascination with China that began after my grandparents returned from working on land reform in Taiwan when I was seven. I am one of the fortunate ones who has been able to devote my life and work to the thing that interests me most.

My China career began in 1978, when I joined the CIA. I was a case officer - a spy - in China Operations. I also qualified as Chinese Language Officer, and trained as a paramilitary officer as part of the Agency's 'Special Operations Group' reserve. At all times, I held Top Secret/Codeword clearances.

I left the CIA in 1984 to earn an MBA at Harvard Business School and to complete my Master of International Affairs at the School of International & Public Affairs at Columbia University.

After graduation, I worked at Salomon Brothers before starting my own boutique investment bank, RiddellTseng, in Taiwan in 1988. With a strong first-mover advantage, we grew quickly and gained a client list of leading international insurance and asset management firms, such as MetLife and Fidelity.

When China's financial sector began to open in the early 1990s, we continued to offer our clients the same advisory and dealmaking services on the Mainland.

RiddellTseng is now about to celebrate our 40th anniversary of advising clients on China.

In 2012, I started a new firm, CHINADebate. CHINADebate aims to bring together top China experts and decision makers - both in-person and online with CHINADebateTV - for discussions of the the issues that inform decisions about China and the global businesses, markets and economies that feel China's impact. And five years later, I created CHINADebateTV, an online video platform that presents the China analyses from leading experts around the world.

Now, let me fill in a few blanks.

First, I am also a lawyer, licensed to practice in Florida since 1976, Board Certified in International Law, and a former Vice Chair of the International Law Board Certification Committee.

Second, besides the CIA, I served in government as a U.S. Delegate to the UN, where I represented the U.S. at the Sixth (international law) Committee and advised the Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick at the UN Security Council. I also served as Undersecretary of State for International Affairs in my home state of Florida. 

Finally, I am a Life Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

My education and academic activities are outlined below.

Education and Academics

My degrees

Before joining the CIA, I earned Ia juris doctor degree from Stetson University College of Law in my home state of Florida, and later did post-graduate studies at Harvard Law School’s East Asian Legal Studies Program. My other graduate work includes:

Harvard Business School, MBAColumbia University, Master of International AffairsHarvard Graduate School of Design, AMDP in Real Estate

At Peking University, I have been...

Senior Visiting Fellow at Peking University Law SchoolMember of the Advisory Board at the Center for Real Estate Law

But mostly I continued my academic work at Harvard, which has included...

Harvard Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Associate-in-Research Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Asia Fellow Harvard China Fund Academic Committee, member 

At the Harvard Graduate School of Design, I brought together my experience and my academic work to serve as Academic Leader and instructor for China real estate programs. See my Harvard Faculty & Instructor profile.

In the Media

China Expert Discusses U.S.- China Relations"Malcolm Riddell, a former spy for the CIA in China, He speaks with NBC News’ Kerry Sanders about U.S.-Chinese relations" NBC News

What Level of Reform Will Come Out of China?Malcolm Riddell, President of RiddellTseng and founder of CHINADebate, on what to expect from the Chinese Communist Party's Third Plenary session this weekend. 

Nov 9, 2013, BizAsiaAmerica.

Malcolm Riddell HuffPost Live Interview on Hot China Issues

Al Jazeera: The Stream - China's class war?With a fast-growing economy and rising class divisions, Chinese elites increasingly find themselves under an online microscope.

A China-Focused Boutique Investment Bank

Celebrating More Than 25 Years'

Advising Leading International Financial Services Companies

On China Business & Investment

About CHINADebate

Since 2012, CHINADebate Members have been making more informed China and China-impacted decisions from discussions with leading China experts and their peers at the Harvard Club of New York.

What People are Saying about CHINADebate

John Holden

Associate Dean & Professor, Peking University

"What distinguishes CHINADebate from other fora is that it brings together a highly productive mix of people with business, policy, and academic expertise for in-depth, practical-oriented discussions ... The sessions are lively, engaging and filled with useful information and insight."

Bill Daly

Managing Director, BlackRock

"CHINADebate is 'must have.' "

Jim Hodge

President, Permal Asset Management

"I find CHINADebate invaluable."

Grace Gu

Portfolio Manager, Graham Capital Management

"Why is CHINADebate special for me?  Nowadays, almost every research shop produces China contents.  But few have the depth of local expertise, broad spectrum of perspectives, uncensored insights, and interactive nature of the conversations to rival that of Malcolm's CHINADebate offerings." 

Jay Epstien

Partner, DLA Piper Chair, U.S. Real Estate Practice | Co-Chair, Global Real Estate Practice

"CHINADebate is a terrific information resource, and more, about what is happening in China. "

Karin Shewer

Chairman of the BoardReal Estate Capital Partners

"CHINADebate offers thought provoking, insightful conversations with very knowledgeable experts in their respective fields in a small group environment.  These Roundtables offer invaluable information for anyone interested in China."  

Dr. Ron Schramm

Professor Emeritus, Columbia University

"CHINADebate is a fantastic forum. The best thing on China I have attended."

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An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.

‍‘Over the next six months or more, the energy crunch in China will be an even bigger challenge than Evergrande. Will make the Evergrande problem look tiny and has huge global implications. The lights go out in China!’ one experienced and very well-respected reader of long residence in China wrote to me in response the last issue on Evergrande.
10/17/2021

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Just How Contagious is Evergrande?

Just as a personal crisis can lead you to dig deeper into yourself, so the rapid-fire events in China - with trillions of dollars of business and investment on the line - have led us to (finally) go deeper into how China works – and to come to grips with uncertainties caused by Xi Jinping’s recent moves to reshape the Chinese economy and the Party’s social contract with the Chinese people.
10/7/2021

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'This Time Feels Different'

Just when we thought we were getting used to Xi Jinping’s tech reforms and social-engineering regulations, the Evergrande crisis heats up.
9/27/2021

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AUKUS: A New World Order?

‍In case you passed over the news of AUKUS, the new strategic alliance among the U.S, the U.K., and Australia, here a few headlines to encourage a deeper look.
9/19/2021

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Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.

Today's issue is a heads up on what may be Xi Jinping's efforts to reshape Chinese society.
9/7/2021

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The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?

Breaking through the blow-by-blow reporting that started when the Taliban began its sweep to victory are the geopolitical analyses of who gains and who loses in Afghanistan.
8/28/2021

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'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'

As I write this, Taliban forces have entered Kabul and are reportedly occupying the Presidential Palace.
8/15/2021

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Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You

‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
8/5/2021

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China's Tech Crackdown
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China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?

‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders, and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook,’ writes Reuters’ Tom Westbrook.
8/1/2021

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VIEs
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China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks

I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
7/22/2021

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Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China

During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
7/18/2021

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Biden Doctrine
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The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents

President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
7/15/2021

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Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again

Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
7/8/2021

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The Chinese Point of View

Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
7/4/2021

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The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong

Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
6/24/2021

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What the West Gets Wrong About China
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‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’

From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
6/20/2021

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G7 to D10
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Biden Worries China Might Win

‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
6/9/2021

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China's Grand Strategy
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Killing China's Grand Strategy

Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
6/3/2021

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Biden’s China strategy
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What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy

And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
5/30/2021

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China's demographic challenges
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'Demography + Technology is Destiny'

The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
5/27/2021

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Apple in China
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Apple in China

‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
5/20/2021

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After Xi
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After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World

A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
5/15/2021

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The Poem that Cost Billions

The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
5/12/2021

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The most dangerous place on Earth
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'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'

‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
5/7/2021

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'Fanning the Flames of War'

I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
5/2/2021

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Biden’s First 100 Days
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Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
4/29/2021

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The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World

In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
4/14/2021

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'Why China Is Going All "Wolf Warrior," All the Time'

‘All this is to say that, living in Beijing as I do, I think the current approach is predictable and consistent with everything else we are seeing in China in the New Era.’
4/4/2021

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Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries

‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
3/31/2021

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China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it

After the National People’s Congress, ‘election reform’ in Hong Kong, the dustup between the U.S. and China in Anchorage, and China’s going all ‘Wolf Warrior’ on the EU, that’s not such a bad thing.
3/28/2021

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U.S. - EU Coalitions
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2 | More to come?

‘This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully.’
3/25/2021

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U.S. - EU Coalitions
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1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China

"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."
3/25/2021

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U.S. - EU Coalitions
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3 | China explains why it is going all 'Wolf Warrior' on the EU

China has found that bullying works a lot of the time, Why is China engaging in "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy
3/25/2021

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U.S.-China Alaska Meeting
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China Goes All 'Wolf Warrior' on the U.S. & the EU

Today is the Tracker’s first issue. Covered here are two events where China went all 'Wolf Warrior' first on the U.S. and then on the EU.
3/25/2021

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How to Meet the China Challenge

How the Biden administration characterizes the China – strategic competitor, rival, enemy, and the like – and how it develops strategies – containment, confrontation, competition, cooperation, or some combination of these - will have an impact, to a greater or lesser degree, on most every industry and every market.
3/17/2021

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China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
3/4/2021

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2/12/2021

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The 'Longer Telegram' & Its Discontents

Why everyone wants to be George Kennan‘In 1947 X penned his history-changing “Sources of Soviet Conduct” in Foreign Affairs,’ wrote Edward Luce in the Financial Times in 2018.‘The piece, which crystallised America’s cold war containment strategy, was the making of George F Kennan’s life-long reputation as a master of geopolitics.’‘ As the architect of a doctrine that won the cold war.’
2/7/2021

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Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

In today’s issue: 1. China Lays Out Its Position / 2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position / 3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition / 4. Burma or Myanmar?
2/3/2021

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China Tests Biden

In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
1/31/2021

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Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'

In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
1/27/2021

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'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'

In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
1/23/2021

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'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'

In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
1/20/2021

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'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'

In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
1/16/2021

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Kurt Campbell & Biden Asia Policy

In today’s issue: 1. Kurt Campbell: Biden's 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator' / 2. 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell
1/13/2021

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China Reacts on Riots at the Capitol
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How the Chinese reacted to the incident at the Capitol

In this issue: 1. China Reacts / ‘On Double Standards’ - 'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst' - 'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of The Global Times' / 2. ‘Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns’ - 'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay' / 3. A Pro Tip from 'The Relevant Organs' - 'Dealing with Insurrectionist Leaders the Chinese Way'
1/9/2021

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'Mo Money, Ma Problems'

In today’s issue: 1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’ / 2. Biden & the EU-China Investment Agreement / 3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro & Con / 4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba
1/6/2021

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1/1/2021

Pacific Council

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First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China

The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
12/7/2016