Leland R. Miller is the Chief Executive Officer of China Beige Book International.
A leading authority on China’s economy and financial system, he is a frequent commentator on media outlets such as CNBC, Bloomberg TV & Radio, CNN, BBC, and FOX Business, among others, and his work is featured regularly in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, TIME, New Yorker, Atlantic, Forbes, Foreign Policy, The Hill and South China Morning Post.
Mr. Miller holds a law degree from the University of Virginia School of Law, where he was Hardy C. Dillard fellow and editor-in-chief of the school’s Journal of International Law; a master’s degree in Chinese History from Oxford University (St. Antony’s College); a BA in European History from Washington & Lee University; and a graduate Chinese language fellowship from Tunghai University (Taiwan).
In 2004, Mr. Miller received the Gerald Segal Fellowship Prize in Asian Security, awarded annually for excellence to a single individual worldwide by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), and in 2006-08 was named an American Bar Association (ABA) Business Law Fellow, a position from which he helped oversee the organization’s review of the Chinese banking system.
Mr. Miller is an elected member of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, an elected life member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council.
Leland points out that President Trump's really big trade move against China yet to come, that is, Section 301 penalties. If you aren't up to speed on 301, you will be after you read and watch Leland's comments. As Leland says, with Section 301, 'regardless of how Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs end up in the next few days - you're seeing the beginning, not the end, of Trump's aggressiveness on trade.' 'And, I don't think people have prepared themselves yet for the fact that 301 is coming.'
For over a year, commodities bulls have feasted on China. In the aftermath of the recent Communist Party Congress, many investors are now drooling over the prospect the boom will continue, based on Beijing’s promises to supercharge its campaigns against overcapacity and pollution this winter. If such pledges are fulfilled, the thinking goes, substantial chunks of steel, aluminum, and other refining capacity will be taken offline, rebalancing markets and providing rocket fuel to already frothy prices. 2018 could prove to be an even more amped-up version of 2017.
The Chinese economy is strange in many ways. Not only is it a hybrid between private capital and state control, but very few people directly invest in the mainland — and yet everybody is interested in how the second largest economy in the world is going to develop. That’s because Chinese demand determines the prices of world commodities, and the operations of multinational companies in China impact earnings. When the yuan falls, markets across the world get jittery. China watchers accept the fact that official Chinese data is severely flawed, and often simply fabricated, yet they still use it to analyze the Chinese economy and markets because there are few alternatives. One alternative, however, is the China Beige Book International (CBB), a research service that interviews thousands of companies and hundreds of bankers on the ground in China each quarter. They collect data and perform in-depth interviews with Chinese executives.