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Andrew Polk

Andrew Polk

Co-Founder at Trivium/China
Trivium China
  • The Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
  • Chaoyang District, Beijing, China

Andrew was formerly director of China research at Medley Global Advisors and senior China economist at The Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing.

Previously, he worked at the Institute of International Finance, where he conducted macroeconomic analysis on emerging markets in the Asia/Pacific region. His research focus has included monetary policy, capital flows, and financial market development throughout East and Southeast Asia, with a particular emphasis on China. He has also conducted growth and inflation forecasting and country risk analysis for the region.

He has held research positions at the East Asia Desk of the U.S. Treasury Department, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and Foreign Policy magazine.

Andrew earned his BA in American studies and communication at Texas A&M University and holds an MA with distinction in economics and China studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Trivium China

Trivium is a team of analysts publishing research on China’s politics and economy. We also work with firms and funds on a bespoke basis.

Channels

AsiaStrat
Granite Peak Advisory
Track Research
Trivium China
Gao Feng
Real Estate Foresight
China Beige Book

All Analyses by

Andrew Polk

'Big lessons from the faulty analysis that spiked the Shanghai stock market'

ProTips from Andrew Polk, Trivium China

On April 24, equity analysts interpreted a phrase used in a Politburo meeting readout to signal a new round of economic stimulus. And, the Shanghai stock market, one of the world's worst performers, spiked 2%. 

On April 25, having much earlier advised and protected clients, Andrew Polk of Trivium China published an analysis in Trivium's daily (and free) 'Tip Sheet' that explained why the market had gotten the signal wrong - there was no stimulus coming.

Later, Andrew and I talked about how he reached his conclusions. His explanation is a masterclass in how experience, discipline, and some tedious slogging, combined with a sound analytical framework, lead to good China analysis.

New super-agency, National Supervision Commission—and China's massive government restructuring

'With government restructuring, the biggest thing is the creation of an entirely new branch of government: the National Supervisory Commission. Its entire job is to overlook every single public official in China. It is an institutionalization and deepening of the corruption crackdown that we've seen over the past few years.'

In all, Andrew highlighted four major actions from the Two Sessions:

  1. Chinese government restructuring 
  2. The policy roadmap 
  3. Personnel 
  4. The legislative agenda + the constitutional amendments 

The Chinese Government’s 9 Economic Policy Priorities in 2018 (and beyond)

  1. Supply-side Structural Reform
  2. Innovation
  3. The “three critical battles”
  4. Deepening reforms
  5. Rural revitalization
  6. The regional development strategy
  7. Increasing consumption and improving investment
  8. Opening up
  9. People’s wellbeing

December 2017: Is China Actually Deleveraging? Yes and No.

Andrew Polk
12/31/17

China Deleveraging Insider tracks the status of China’s financial de-risking initiatives and the state of deleveraging.

The most recent data from the PBoC and the CBRC show that bank asset growth hit a fresh all-time low in October. That means China is actually deleveraging – a little. It’s slow and slight, and done with a bit of trickery, but the debt load has shrunk in comparison to the size of the economy.