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Editor's Take

THE BIG IDEAS

The Wall Street Journal

John Bolton

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Biden Has a Summit With Xi, but No Strategy for China'

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‘Neither Taiwan nor strategic arms are a hot campaign topic, and China is not yet at the forefront of public consciousness. To ensure America’s eventual strategy is workable, political leaders need to debate the challenges so citizens can appreciate the implications of the choices they will have to make.’
November 23, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

The Guardian

Tony Saich | Harvard Kennedy School

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Xi Jinping has made sure history is now officially on his side'

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‘While there are murmurs of opposition, the historic plenary session would suggest that the future is in Xi’s hands. However, when politics is so deeply personalised and centralised, there is only one person to blame if things go wrong. Unless, of course, we get a new resolution on history that tells us who led the party astray, despite Xi’s earnest attempts to keep policy on the straight and narrow.’
November 23, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Xi Jinping's Leadership: 'The Inevitable Outcome of History'

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Mr. Xi is the hero of a Resolution on the history of the Chinese Communist Party that painted his leadership as the inevitable outcome of history and all but gave him his third term. Tony Saich of the Harvard Kennedy School did a terrific analysis on this - you'll find it below, after my take.
November 23, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Why China Won't Invade Taiwan - Yet

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Forget Evergrande and the energy crunch. After the recent flurry of alarming headlines, here’s the question I get most often these days from CEO’s and institutional investors: Will China invade Taiwan in the next few years?
October 27, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

An Energy Crunch. China's Latest Crisis. They Just Keep Piling Up.

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‍‘Over the next six months or more, the energy crunch in China will be an even bigger challenge than Evergrande. Will make the Evergrande problem look tiny and has huge global implications. The lights go out in China!’ one experienced and very well-respected reader of long residence in China wrote to me in response the last issue on Evergrande.
October 17, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Just How Contagious is Evergrande?

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Just as a personal crisis can lead you to dig deeper into yourself, so the rapid-fire events in China - with trillions of dollars of business and investment on the line - have led us to (finally) go deeper into how China works – and to come to grips with uncertainties caused by Xi Jinping’s recent moves to reshape the Chinese economy and the Party’s social contract with the Chinese people.
October 7, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'This Time Feels Different'

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Just when we thought we were getting used to Xi Jinping’s tech reforms and social-engineering regulations, the Evergrande crisis heats up.
September 27, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

AUKUS: A New World Order?

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‍In case you passed over the news of AUKUS, the new strategic alliance among the U.S, the U.K., and Australia, here a few headlines to encourage a deeper look.
September 19, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Xi Jinping: Today, video games. Tomorrow, well ... just be good.

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Today's issue is a heads up on what may be Xi Jinping's efforts to reshape Chinese society.
September 7, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The Taliban: 'China's Perfect Partner'?

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Breaking through the blow-by-blow reporting that started when the Taliban began its sweep to victory are the geopolitical analyses of who gains and who loses in Afghanistan.
August 28, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Are you tired of losing yet, America?'

Book
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As I write this, Taliban forces have entered Kabul and are reportedly occupying the Presidential Palace.
August 15, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Don't Say Xi Jinping Didn't Warn You

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‘Global investors are shocked to have discovered that China is run by Communists.’
August 5, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

China's Tech Crackdown: 'Nobody Saw It Coming.' — Huh?

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China's Tech Crackdown
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‘Carnage in China's financial markets signals the beginning of a new era as the government puts socialism before shareholders, and regulatory changes rip apart the old playbook,’ writes Reuters’ Tom Westbrook.
August 1, 2021
Risks & Trends

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks

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VIEs
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I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
July 22, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Why the U.S. Lacks Leverage over China

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During the celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s Centennial celebration, Mr. Xi stood in the same place on the balcony facing Tiananmen Square where Mao Zedong stood when he announced the founding of the PRC; Mr. Xi wore a gray Mao suit, among a sea of blue western suits; and he centered himself right above the portrait of Mao, who is similarly attired.
July 18, 2021
Biden China Tracker

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The Biden Doctrine and Its Discontents

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Biden Doctrine
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President Biden has framed China as a threat both to the U.S. and the liberal world order.
July 15, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Didi: Xi Surprises Us Again

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Beijing shocked the financial world when it pulled the rug out from under Didi days after its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and also announced new regulations reigning in overseas IPOs and Chinese companies already listed.
July 8, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The Chinese Point of View

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Here are a few of my thoughts on the importance of Wang Jisi’s ‘The Plot Against China.’ Yuen Yuen Ang’s ‘The Evolution of Chinese Corruption’ speaks for itself - but note especially how Mr. Xi's anti-corruption campaign could hurt China's economy. I have now lived long enough that when a friend complains about his or her spouse, I say to myself, ‘There are no doubt two sides to this story.’
July 4, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The End of 'Apple Daily' - and Freedom of the Press in Hong Kong

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Through arrests and freezing of assets, Beijing has forced the closing of Hong Kong’s last pro-democracy newspaper, the Apple Daily.
June 24, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

‘Why do business and political leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong?’

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What the West Gets Wrong About China
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From that I suggested that to invest successfully in China, you have to understand – and be aware of - what those differences are.
June 20, 2021
Biden China Tracker

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Biden Worries China Might Win

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G7 to D10
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‘Biden has taken the vital first step of correctly diagnosing the strategic challenge facing the country.’ ‘Like Harry Truman at the start of the Cold War and George H. W. Bush at its end, the president now has an opportunity to create a framework for a new era.’
June 9, 2021
Risks & Trends

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Killing China's Grand Strategy

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China's Grand Strategy
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Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
June 3, 2021
Biden China Tracker

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

What China Thinks About Biden's China Policy

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Biden’s China strategy
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And that is what makes Cheng Li’s ‘Biden’s China strategy: Coalition-driven competition or Cold War-style confrontation?' so valuable. Cheng has decades of close relationships with China’s leaders and high officials. They trust him not to attribute their comments and so speak freely and honestly to him. Cheng is the person I rely on most to convey China’s positions.
May 30, 2021
Risks & Trends

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Demography + Technology is Destiny'

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China's demographic challenges
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The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
May 27, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Apple in China

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Apple in China
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‘But just as Mr. Cook figured out how to make China work for Apple, China is making Apple work for the Chinese government.’ ‘Behind the scenes, Apple has constructed a bureaucracy that has become a powerful tool in China’s vast censorship operation.’
May 20, 2021
Risks & Trends

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

After Xi: A Succession Crisis to Rock the World

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After Xi
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A new risk to add to your analyses and strategic planning: A succession crisis in China. By removing term limits on his stay in office and by not naming a successor, Secretary General Xi Jinping ‘has pushed China towards a potential destabilising succession crisis, one with profound implications for the international order and global commerce,’ writes Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute and Jude Blanchette of the Center for Strategic & International Studies
May 15, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The Poem that Cost Billions

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The billion dollar losses that came from quoting an 1,100-year-old poem, toWhy foreign companies in China have Stockholm Syndrome
May 12, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'The Most Dangerous Place on Earth'

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The most dangerous place on Earth
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‘China's top priority now and in the foreseeable future is to deter Taiwan independence rather than compel unification,’ note Richard Bush (Brookings (retired)), Bonnie Glaser (German Marshall Fund in America), and Ryan Hass (Brookings Institution)
May 7, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Fanning the Flames of War'

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I recently received an email from a former U.S. ambassador and influential senior foreign policy expert taking me to task for publishing so many hawkish posts about U.S. policy toward China in the ‘China Macro Reporter.’ These are, he said, ‘in some ways fanning the flames of a potential war. Please back down, at least a bit.’ ‘This is not the Malcolm I remember or know,’ he ended.
May 2, 2021
Biden China Tracker

ChinaDebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Biden China Policy: What We Know at the 100 Day Mark

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Biden’s First 100 Days
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Friday, April 30, marks 100 days of the Biden Presidency.On Thursday, President Biden gave a speech to a Joint Session of Congress that summed up many of policies – including those on China - as he nears the 100-day mark.And several major media outlets and think tanks are getting an early start on their analyses.Here's Senator Lindsey Graham: "I'm not very impressed with the first 100 days.”‘ "He's been a disaster on foreign policy.” ’‘ “Russia and China are already pushing him around, so I'm very worried." ’
April 29, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The Belt & Road in the Post-Pandemic World

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In this issue of China Macro Commentary, I have focused just on the ‘Digital Silk Road’ and how it supports the business expansion of Chinese tech companies, and on BRI ‘connectivity’ projects: ports (China is involved in 93 around the world) and on the growing China-Europe freight trains traffic (This wasn't covered sufficiently in the Report, so I included a recent article from the Wall Street Journal), plus on the U.S.'s failure to meet the BRI challenge.
April 14, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Why China Is Going All "Wolf Warrior," All the Time'

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‘All this is to say that, living in Beijing as I do, I think the current approach is predictable and consistent with everything else we are seeing in China in the New Era.’
April 4, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Chinese Boycotts are the Least of Your Worries

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‘For chief executives [and boards] around the world, watching the Chinese government go after Swedish clothier Hennes & Mauritz AB is excruciating — facing the evaporation of your hard-won China business over political issues largely out of your control,’ writes Michael Schuman in Bloomberg.’ ‘But it could be the new normal.’ ‘As relations between China and the U.S. and its allies deteriorate, Western businesses could increasingly get dragged into the fray.’
March 31, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

China is not just shackling Hong Kong, it is remaking it

Book
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After the National People’s Congress, ‘election reform’ in Hong Kong, the dustup between the U.S. and China in Anchorage, and China’s going all ‘Wolf Warrior’ on the EU, that’s not such a bad thing.
March 28, 2021
Biden China Tracker

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

2 | More to come?

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U.S. - EU Coalitions
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‘This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully.’
March 25, 2021
Biden China Tracker

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

1 | The first U.S.-EU alliance against China

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U.S. - EU Coalitions
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"Europeans will have to step up their reaction against China after insults, intimidation and sanctions against scholars and MPs. This isn't about siding with America, it's about defending European sovereignty against a bully."
March 25, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

3 | China explains why it is going all 'Wolf Warrior' on the EU

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U.S. - EU Coalitions
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China has found that bullying works a lot of the time, Why is China engaging in "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy
March 25, 2021
Biden China Tracker

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

China Goes All 'Wolf Warrior' on the U.S. & the EU

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U.S.-China Alaska Meeting
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Today is the Tracker’s first issue. Covered here are two events where China went all 'Wolf Warrior' first on the U.S. and then on the EU.
March 25, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

How to Meet the China Challenge

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How the Biden administration characterizes the China – strategic competitor, rival, enemy, and the like – and how it develops strategies – containment, confrontation, competition, cooperation, or some combination of these - will have an impact, to a greater or lesser degree, on most every industry and every market.
March 17, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

China & the U.S.: Getting Each Other Wrong

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China and the U.S. seem to be in the process of reassessing their views of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Xi Jinping appears to be seeking some balance in his assessment of the U.S. And analysts in the U.S. have reversed a trend of opinion that ‘China is inexorably rising and on the verge of overtaking a faltering United States.' They argue instead ‘the United States has good reason to be confident about its ability to compete with China.’
March 4, 2021

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Happy Lunar New Year!

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February 12, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

The 'Longer Telegram' & Its Discontents

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Why everyone wants to be George Kennan‘In 1947 X penned his history-changing “Sources of Soviet Conduct” in Foreign Affairs,’ wrote Edward Luce in the Financial Times in 2018.‘The piece, which crystallised America’s cold war containment strategy, was the making of George F Kennan’s life-long reputation as a master of geopolitics.’‘ As the architect of a doctrine that won the cold war.’
February 7, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition

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In today’s issue: 1. China Lays Out Its Position / 2. The U.S. Lays Out Its Position / 3. Burma: At the Center of the U.S.-China Competition / 4. Burma or Myanmar?
February 3, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

China Tests Biden

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In today’s issue: 1. China Tests Biden Over Taiwan / 2. The UK Stands Up, the U.S. Not So Much / 3. Why Impeding U.S.-China Capital Flows Isn't Easy
January 31, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Xi Jinping: 'Why We All Just Get Along?'

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In today’s issue:1. Biden Shows his Hand on China / 2. Xi Shows his Hand on the U.S./ 3. Multi-Lateralism, Chinese-Style / 4. Cooperation or 'Strategic Competition'?
January 27, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Does Xi Jinping Face a Coup Threat?'

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In today’s issue: 1. Rest easy. Xi is Safe / 2. China a Career Killer? /3. Rethinking 2020: What’s Overlooked and What’s Overhyped / 4. China’s Financial Opening Accelerates
January 23, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'

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In today’s issue: 1. Biden's China Hawks / 2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?] / 3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges
January 20, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'

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In today’s issue: 1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’ / 2. China’s Fintech Threat‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’ / 3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA
January 16, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Kurt Campbell & Biden Asia Policy

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In today’s issue: 1. Kurt Campbell: Biden's 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator' / 2. 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell
January 13, 2021
In-Depth

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

How the Chinese reacted to the incident at the Capitol

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China Reacts on Riots at the Capitol
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In this issue: 1. China Reacts / ‘On Double Standards’ - 'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst' - 'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of The Global Times' / 2. ‘Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns’ - 'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay' / 3. A Pro Tip from 'The Relevant Organs' - 'Dealing with Insurrectionist Leaders the Chinese Way'
January 9, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

'Mo Money, Ma Problems'

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In today’s issue: 1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’ / 2. Biden & the EU-China Investment Agreement / 3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro & Con / 4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba
January 6, 2021

CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

Happy New Year!

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January 1, 2021
THE BIG IDEAS

Pacific Council

Malcolm Riddell

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CHINADebate

Malcolm Riddell

CHINADebate

First 100 Days: Do Not Provoke China

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The First 100 Days interview series features Pacific Council experts addressing the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming Trump administration.: Warns of the potential for new conflicts if Donald Trump follows through with his campaign promises regarding China.
December 7, 2016
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