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January 2020

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="20" style="height:20px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding-left:3.5%" a=""><a href="" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate"><img width="100%" src="https://assets.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5d86577f82aa6e55afacb4ea_cd%20long-fit.png" alt="CHINADebate" style="width: 110px;"></a></td><td align="right" style="padding-right:3.5%"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1"><span style="font-size: 42px; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color:#0970b3; letter-spacing: -1px; line-height: 1;">China Macro Reporter</span></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:30px; padding-top:10px;color:#001544; font-size:0.8125em; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;"><span style="color:#001544; font-size:13px; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; text-decoration:none; border-bottom:none;">by Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>Jan 11, 2020</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:20px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">Opening Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y13ui?track_p_id=74pEX2AY6RBDzy_QbwSfCMY" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/uhp7CvL-kYuJYdwsZTPG2Ui__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7y13ui?track_p_id=8Xk%40FkfGd6RBDzy_ECPJUQe" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Taiwan's Hong Kong Election'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I watched run-up</strong> to and then the results of the Taiwan election today with special interest.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Personally,</strong> I lived in Taiwan for a dozen years and have great affection for the island. It is my true second home.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Professionally,</strong> I knew that the re-election of President Tsai, who has taken a hard line against reunification with China, would escalate tensions with China.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi Jinping</strong> has called for reunification under the ‘one country, two systems’ model.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With Tsai’s re-election,</strong> a large majority of Taiwanese, having watched how that model has worked in Hong Kong, have said no.</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Xi,</strong> facing continued unrest in Hong Kong and now meeting with a firm rebuff from Taiwan, may feel he has to act.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In Hong Kong,</strong> Xi has a free hand; in Taiwan, not so much. &nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The constraint:</strong> the tacit, or some might argue legal, obligation that the U.S. has to defend Taiwan.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For those tracking geopolitical risks,</strong> Tsai’s re-election has elevated Taiwan’s status as potential top flashpoint for military conflict between the U.S. and China.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know</strong> what you think.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And, as always,</strong> please forward the China Macro Reporter to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Best,</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:7px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.5em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">1. Taiwan’s Hong Kong Election</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6XaEwi?track_p_id=d3R4FwPIUJcBqj9BZDsE_BI" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/nDe_JxQeos0EJaQainsv9Ei__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6XaEwi?track_p_id=6Katzsv9BZDsE_aURUAdQws" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">In Blow to Beijing, Taiwan Re-elects Tsai Ing-wen as President&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The&nbsp;biggest risk for the new economy in 2020&nbsp;may well be tensions over Taiwan.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-11/tsai-wins-second-term-in-landslide-as-voters-stand-up-to-beijing" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen</strong> won a landslide victory over China-friendly opposition challenger Han Kuo-yu to clinch a second term in elections Saturday.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese president Xi has</strong> reaffirmed his desire to use the same “one country, two systems” framework by which Beijing governs Hong Kong to bring the democracy of 23 million people back under its control.'</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Tsai rejects the prospect</strong>, and she has vowed that Taiwan will never be unified with China as long she is in power.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/11/world/asia/taiwan-election-china.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">NYT.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Ms. Tsai’s victory</strong> highlighted how successfully her campaign had tapped into an electorate that is increasingly wary of China’s intentions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It also found momentum</strong> from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/07/world/asia/hong-kong-protests-us-chamber-commerce.html?searchResultPosition=2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">months of protests in Hong Kong&nbsp;</a>against Beijing’s encroachment on the semiautonomous Chinese territory’s freedoms.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In her victory speech,</strong> Ms. Tsai called for unity as she pledged to work to defend the island’s sovereignty and improve the economy.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“With each presidential election,</strong> Taiwan is showing the world how much we cherish our democratic way of life,” she said at a news conference in Taipei. “We must work to keep our country safe and defend our sovereignty.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwans-hong-kong-election-11578614899?mod=searchresults&amp;page=1&amp;pos=4" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">WSJ Editorial.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The effort to suffocate Hong Kong</strong> is a preview of what Chinese hegemony would look like, and it has loomed especially large in Taiwan’s presidential election campaign.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A popular reassertion</strong> of Taiwanese de facto independence in Saturday’s vote would show revulsion with China’s tactics in its own neighborhood and strike a blow for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Taiwan’s position emphasizes</strong> how the U.S. competition with China is ideological as well as economic and military.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Bipartisan U.S. support</strong> for Taiwan is based on its identity as a free society. So is Beijing’s hostility.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s rulers</strong> can’t tolerate the demonstration of a flourishing ethnic Chinese democracy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. national-security strategy</strong> in Asia depends on a strong and independent Taiwan.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The country is home</strong> to a thriving high-tech industry that the U.S. doesn’t want under Chinese control, and it is located at a strategic crossroads in the western Pacific.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-01-11/bloomberg-new-economy-taiwan-decides-while-beijing-watches" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg.</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Last year, Chinese President Xi</strong> Jinping made clear Beijing saw no future for Taiwan outside of the “one country, two systems” framework it used to retake Hong Kong from the British.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That formula,</strong> however, is a&nbsp;<a href="https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/course/news.php?Sn=167" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">non-starter</a> in Taiwan.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While Xi could choose </strong>to respond to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and pro-independence agitation in Taiwan with more flexible policies, don’t count on it.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A more likely scenario</strong> is that he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/taiwans-january-2020-elections-prospects-and-implications-for-china-and-the-united-states/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">turns the screws even harder</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That outcome</strong> could further ratchet up tensions between Beijing and Washington.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration</strong> has demonstrated its support for Taiwan through arms sales, by easing restrictions on high-level official contacts and by giving Tsai freedom to travel in America on stopovers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As long as the U.S. guarantees</strong> Taiwan’s security, Washington and Beijing will remain on a collision course.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/u-s-and-china-are-on-taiwan-collision-course" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">biggest risk for the new economy in 2020</strong></a>&nbsp;may well be tensions over Taiwan.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Go Deeper.</strong><a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/taiwans-presidential-election-what-know" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">'Taiwan’s Presidential Election: What to Know,'</a> Council on Foreign Relations</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">2. IRAN: TRUMP'S GIFT TO CHINA</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/4oQwOO?track_p_id=8ij22EB5I7PgXC2_pEF51r2" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/Tad6xj_ebVw7qqeNRLm3H0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/4oQwOO?track_p_id=dDfMlQMcZAiOh57PgXC2_AO" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Trump’s Gift to China by Minxin Pei</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei</strong> | Claremont McKenna College</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If anyone was celebrating Donald Trump's decision to kill Iran’s General Qassem Suleimani, it was Chinese President Xi Jinping. </strong>&nbsp;</h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With Trump’s latest blunder,</strong> history may not be repeating itself, but it is certainly rhyming.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When George W. Bush</strong> began his presidency in January 2001, his neoconservative advisers identified China as the biggest long-term threat to the US.’’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So his administration</strong> labeled China a “strategic competitor” and set to work on containing America’s Asian rival.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Everything changed on September 11, 2001,</strong> when the US was struck by the single deadliest terrorist attack in history.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Bush administration</strong> became so preoccupied with retaliating against al-Qaeda – an objective that led to the catastrophic decision to invade Iraq two years later – that it all but forgot the distant specter of an Asian superpower.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then, just three months after 9/11,</strong> the Bush administration signed off on China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, and China’s economy shifted into high gear.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2000,</strong> China’s economic output amounted to $1.21 trillion – less than 12% of US GDP.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By the end of Bush’s second term</strong>, in 2008, China’s GDP had reached $4.6 trillion – more than 31% of America’s.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Today,</strong> China’s GDP stands at about&nbsp;<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=CN-US" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">65% of the US level</a>.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Like Bush,</strong> when Trump entered the White House, his administration quickly branded China America’s top geopolitical adversary and adopted a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-policy-confrontation-engagement-containment-by-minxin-pei-2019-07" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">confrontational policy</a>, exemplified by a trade war that, despite a “phase one” agreement, has yet to be resolved.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In effect,</strong> Trump revived great power competition – focused primarily on containing China – as the organizing principle of US foreign policy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then Trump had Suleimani killed,</strong> and all eyes turned toward Iran.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the conflict continues to escalate</strong> – even if it stops short of all-out war – the US will most likely redirect significant resources toward confronting the Islamic Republic, and, like after 9/11, move China to the foreign-policy back burner.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Seventeen years ago,</strong> Bush entered into a war of choice in the Middle East that, besides costing huge amounts of US blood and treasure, derailed efforts to contain China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Trump</strong> can still avoid making the same mistake.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">3. ‘The Future of America’s Contest with China’</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/8KvOiW?track_p_id=bd%40HrJSpsrzZ7bmPZ0_U2YX" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/DP5LqT6ppCqXfYHBoYI2x0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/8KvOiW?track_p_id=07bmPZ0_TQn4xaVpjYmwXds" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Future of America’s Contest with China</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;">&nbsp; &nbsp;<strong style="font-weight: bold">The New Yorker</strong>&nbsp;</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Evan Osnos</strong> | The New Yorker &nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To a degree still difficult for outsiders to absorb, China is preparing to shape the twenty-first century, much as the U.S. shaped the twentieth.'</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Evan Osnos of The New Yorker</strong> is the author of <a href="https://smile.amazon.com/Age-Ambition-Chasing-Fortune-Truth/dp/0374535272/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=evan+osnos&amp;qid=1578758237&amp;sr=8-1" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;"><em style="font-style: italic">Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China</em></a>, winner of the 2014 National Book Award in nonfiction.</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">His latest essay,</strong><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/01/13/the-future-of-americas-contest-with-china?verso=true" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">‘The Future of America’s Contest with China’ is equally excellent.</a></li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Long and covering many key issues,</strong> there is too much to summarize here. I urge you to read it. (Note: you may need a subscription to The New Yorker.)</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is just a bit,</strong> Henry Kissinger’s comments</li></ul><p style="text-align: center;display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;________________________________</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Henry Kissinger</strong> ‘has come to believe that the two sides are falling into a spiral of hostile perceptions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“I’m very concerned.</strong> The way the relationship has deteriorated in recent months will feed, on both sides, the image that the other one is a permanent adversary.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dr. Kissinger</strong> ‘considers America’s contest with China to be both less dire and more complex than the Soviet struggle.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We were dealing with a bipolar world.</strong> Now we’re dealing with a multipolar world.”</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The components</strong> of an international system are so much more varied, and the lineups are much more difficult to control.”</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For that reason,</strong> Kissinger says, the more relevant and disturbing analogy is to the First World War.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In that view,</strong> the trade war is an ominous signal; economic polarization, of the kind that pitted Britain against Germany before 1914, has often been a prelude to real war.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“If it freezes into a permanent conflict,</strong> and you have two big blocs confronting each other, then the danger of a pre-World War I situation is huge,” Kissinger said.'</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;">4. more decoupling: INTERNET SPLIT</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Q6urQ?track_p_id=05K2FX4_GIriMTxy3p31yH5" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/GMxAOlvRmMmRdcopsWzIo0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/5Q6urQ?track_p_id=3UO35K2FX4_lUSGE4RdFpiQ" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">The Coming End of the Open Internet Era</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Relations</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Rob Knake</strong> | Council on Foreign Relations</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At some point in the next decade, China will establish a separate root system for its share of the internet. When the split happens, we will mark it as the end of the global internet era.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At some point in the next decade,</strong> the Chinese government, with the support of Russia and other authoritarian regimes, will move forward with plans to establish a separate root system for their share of the internet.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the split happens,</strong> we will mark it as the end of the global internet era.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Long a point of contention,</strong> control of the root, the top-level system for resolving requests for web addresses, has been hotly debated within internet governance circles.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Obama administration</strong> moved forward with long-stalled plans to devolve control of the root from the U.S. Department of Commerce to ICANN as an independent organization with the goal of placing the internet firmly in the hands of the private sector and out of the realm of great power politics.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For its part,</strong> ICANN has worked to placate the Chinese by establishing more&nbsp;<a href="http://domainincite.com/24690-paranoid-icann-opens-another-root-server-in-china" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544;text-decoration: none;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8;">instances</a>of root servers in the country.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unfortunately,</strong> these efforts have done little to slow Chinese ambitions to break from the global internet.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason is simple</strong>–a global internet that is open and free is not compatible with a Chinese state that views openness and freedom as a threat to its stability.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It could, one day,</strong> for example, ‘amid escalating geopolitical tensions, China will drop the .tw routing information from its server, and, with a few keystrokes, drop Taiwan off the internet for half the world’s population.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the Chinese government</strong> takes this step in the next year or decade, it will have done is what they always feared the United States would do: use its control of the internet root as a geopolitical weapon.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Soon after,</strong> the Chinese government will use its newfound power to pressure other countries and companies to censor themselves or risk being similarly blackholed.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When the root splits,</strong> the only question will be how much of the world’s population is on which side of the split.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;"> 5. World Bank Global Outlook</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6SXrO4?track_p_id=7R5hli%40u4nUQeM_UAucWtTA" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/KLAK3bh_VqtwQE7To9B8PUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6SXrO4?track_p_id=caOuYFmIlGd6j4nUQeM_cID" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Global Economic Prospects  2020 : Slow Growth, Policy Challenges</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">World Bank</strong></h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth has decelerated more than previously expected amid cooling domestic demand and heightened trade tensions.’</strong></h2><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><br></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Terrific comprehensive </strong>World Bank analysis of the global economy.</h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Here is a short summary </strong>of the Global Outlook and the sections on China.</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><br></p><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Outlook</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Global growth</strong> is expected to recover to 2.5 percent in 2020—up slightly from the post-crisis low of 2.4 percent registered last year amid weakening trade and investment—and edge up further over the forecast horizon.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While growth could be stronger</strong> if reduced trade tensions mitigate uncertainty, the balance of risks to the outlook is to the downside.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)</strong> is also expected to remain subdued, continuing a decade of disappointing outcomes.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A steep and widespread productivity growth slowdown</strong> has been underway in these economies since the global financial crisis, despite the largest, fastest, and most broad-based accumulation of debt since the 1970s.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> many emerging market and developing economies, including low-income countries, face the challenge of phasing out price controls that impose heavy fiscal cost and dampen investment.’&nbsp;</li></ul><h1 style="display: inline-block;font-size: 1.35em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;line-height: 1.35em;font-weight: normal;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;color: #001544;letter-spacing: -0.1px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China</strong></span></h1><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Growth has decelerated</strong> more than previously expected amid cooling domestic demand and heightened trade tensions.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After decelerating</strong> to an estimated 6.1 percent in 2019, growth is expected to moderate to 5.9 percent in 2020 and 5.8 percent in 2021—0.2 percentage point below previous projections in both years.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s primary vulnerability</strong> is its high and rising stock of private debt in its increasingly complex and interconnected financial system.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Credit to non-financial corporates and households</strong> as a share of GDP nearly doubled in the last decade, reaching about 210 percent in the first quarter of 2019.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/uLcHsnoxzTrLgm1BnUdjCzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; text-align:left;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><span style="display:block; background-color:#c80000; font-family:'gordita', sans-serif; padding:5px; border-left:0px solid #c80000; text-align:center; font-size: 1.375em; font-weight:900; color: #ffffff; line-height:1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px; text-align:center; font-style:none; text-transform:uppercase;"> 6. 'VISUALIZING 2020'</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6HTVJY?track_p_id=dT5TWHEqZ42VEN5qgwda_Y6" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/2CcBybgkmUCTZbLI5Tbnzki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6HTVJY?track_p_id=5mEA%40G5qgwda_u2Gj4tOM3q" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Visualizing 2020: Shifting Supply Chains</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Relations</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Edward Alden</strong> | Council on Foreign Relations</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the United States is slightly shrinking its trade deficit with China, it’s rapidly expanding its one with Vietnam.</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The trade war</strong> that started last year intensified in 2019, with President Trump’s administration levying tariffs on some two-thirds of imports from China.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. companies</strong> with supply chains that run through China are responding, in many cases looking to import from other countries, particularly Vietnam.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘While the United States</strong> is slightly shrinking its trade deficit with China, it’s rapidly expanding its one with Vietnam.</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pace of change</strong> varies by sector.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For instance,</strong> the furniture trade, which has been hit with a steep 25 percent tariff, is changing fast as U.S. companies seek out new, lower-cost suppliers.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The shift</strong> has been less dramatic in the trade of washing machines and apparel, which face lower tariffs, but China is still losing ground.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the trade war</strong> continues into 2020, more and more U.S. importers are likely to seek alternatives to China, moving toward the decoupling favored by some in the Trump administration.’</p><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/YbtWyjgiXGxi5nx3o9aDFDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/6YIVou?track_p_id=8EigN6cQR6tpszO_ADETVd4" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/2CcBybgkmUCTZbLI5Tbnzki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/6YIVou?track_p_id=06tpszO_OguBqbR1IqD6Dmw" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Visualizing 2020: China's R&amp;D Sprint</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Relations</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Adam Segal</strong>&nbsp;| Council on Foreign Relations</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is well on its way to becoming the world’s largest spender on research and development (R&amp;D).’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China is investing</strong> enormous resources to develop the next generation of critical technologies, and it is well on its way to becoming the world’s largest spender on research and development (R&amp;D).’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s sprint</strong> to become an innovation superpower could help drive global growth and prosperity, but it also threatens U.S. economic competitiveness and national security.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It’s not too late,</strong> however, for leaders in Washington to take remedial action and dedicate more funding to the basic research that is too expensive and risky for the private sector.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> still leads the world in total R&amp;D spending, and it could remain competitive if the government restores investments in this area to prior levels.’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Boosting federal R&amp;D spending</strong> to its historical average of about 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—some $230 billion—could ignite the type of discoveries that have reshaped and revitalized the U.S. economy.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/KtKLf3cmi9dNElKd6_VpZjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; background-color:#fff; padding-bottom:10px; margin:0 auto 10px auto; border-bottom:1px solid #ddd;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px;"><img src=""></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="12" style="height:12px; font-size:0; border-top:1px solid #ddd;"></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; border-bottom: 0px solid #ddd; text-align:left; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td width="45px" style="display:block; overflow:hidden; margin-left: 20px; margin-top:2px; border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);"><a href="http://sco.lt/7iFYFE?track_p_id=e3yrrySty%404WAsu5WFpGw_a" style="border-bottom: none;color: #001544;text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="45px" width="auto" src="https://img.scoop.it/2CcBybgkmUCTZbLI5Tbnzki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="display:block; border:none; width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; padding-right:3.5%; line-height:1.425"><a href="http://sco.lt/7iFYFE?track_p_id=3aNn5WFpGw_hrvowVXAkpfZ" style="text-decoration: none; color: #001544; font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.35em; font-family: Georgia, serif; letter-spacing: -0.1px; line-height: 1.35; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">Visualizing 2020: Changing Asian Demographics</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:10px auto 0 auto; border-top: 0px solid #ddd;"><tbody></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:0 3.5%; margin: 0 auto; font-size: 1em; font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif; color: #001544; line-height: 1.5em; letter-spacing:-0.1px;"><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p><h3 style="text-align: right;display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Council on Foreign Relations</strong></h3><h3 style="display: block;font-size: 0.85em;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.1em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #5d5d5d;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Sheila A. Smith</strong> | Council on Foreign Relations</h3><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p><h2 style="text-align: center;display: block;font-size: 1.25em;margin-top: 0;margin-bottom: 0;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-weight: normal;font-family: Georgia, serif;color: #c80000;border-top: 0px solid #ddd;padding: 0.5em 3.5% 0.5em 3.0%;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.35em;background-color: #f6f6f6;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The region’s largest economies—China, Japan, and South Korea—will need to manage a profound demographic shift.’</strong></h2><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Asia has become the engine</strong> of the global economy, but the region’s dynamism could fade as some powerhouses face aging populations.'</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The region’s largest economies</strong>—China, Japan, and South Korea—will need to manage a profound demographic shift in which their workforces steadily shrink and are potentially surpassed by the nonworking populations.’’</li><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The implications</strong> for these societies, their governments, and their foreign relations will be immense.’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the other hand,</strong> some Asian nations are set to grow their workforces.’</p><ul style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0.5;"><li style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0em;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Can they harness</strong> this trend to power their economies ahead of their neighbors?’</li></ul><p style="display: block;margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;font-size: 1em;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: -0.1px;line-height: 1.5em;color: #001544;font-family: gorditamedium, sans-serif;"></p></td></tr><tr><td height="0" style="height:0px; font-size:0; border-bottom:0px solid #fff">&nbsp;        </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr><tr><td width="0"></td><td align="center"><div style="width:600px;"><img src="https://img.scoop.it/UggAIy0-_LLoZAiTQsmzejl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBXdhNIf0Yl8YfRAVzhohB7e" style="border-style: none;" alt=""></div></td><td width="0"></td></tr><tr height="0"><td width="0"></td></tr></tbody></table></div>