The Big Ideas

'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'

IMF

Gita Gopinath | Economic Counsellor & Director of the Research Department, IMF
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
'World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries'
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April 30, 2021
BIG IDEA | ‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.
‘Among emerging markets and developing economies, China is projected to grow this year at 8.4 percent.

Read the IMF's 'World Economic Outlook' - full report 194 pages, but just 57 pages of text; the rest are data.

‘In our latest World Economic Outlook, we are now projecting a stronger recovery for the global economy compared with our January forecast.’

  • ‘Growth is projected to be 6 percent in 2021 (0.5 percentage point upgrade) and 4.4 percent in 2022 (0.2 percentage point upgrade), after an estimated historic contraction of -3.3 percent in 2020.’

‘The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizeable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4 percent this year.’

  • ‘This makes the United States the only large economy projected to surpass the level of GDP it was forecast to have in 2022 in the absence of this pandemic.’
  • ‘Other advanced economies, including the euro area, will also rebound this year but at a slower pace’.

‘Among emerging markets and developing economies, China is projected to grow this year at 8.4 percent.’

  • ‘While China’s economy had already returned to pre-pandemic GDP in 2020, many other countries are not expected to do so until 2023.’

‘Swift policy action worldwide, including $16 trillion in fiscal support, prevented far worse outcomes.’

  • ‘Our estimates suggest last year’s severe collapse could have been three times worse had it not been for such support.’

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