Risks & Trends

by Malcolm Riddell

China's demographic challenges
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'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'

Foreign Affairs

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Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute
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May 27, 2021
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
'Why Demographics is (Close to) Destiny'
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Nicholas Eberstadt | American Enterprise Institute

China's demographic challenges

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BIG IDEA | ‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’

‘Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close.’

‘Most global economic growth since World War II can be attributed to two factors:’

  • ‘Improvements in human capital—a catchall term for education, health, nutrition, training, and other factors that determine an individual worker’s potential—and'
  • ‘Favorable business climates, which allowed the value of those human resources to be unlocked.’

‘Human capital, in particular, has an extraordinary impact on economies.’

  • ‘For each year of increased life expectancy today, for instance, a country sees a permanent increase in per capita income of about four percent.’
  • ‘And for each additional year of schooling that a country’s citizens obtain, the country sees, on average, a ten percent increase in per capita GDP.’

‘Despite the possibility of such rapid and often unexpected improvements in human capital, demography as a whole is a fairly predictable social science.’

  • ‘Unlike economic or technological forecasts, population projections tend to be reasonably accurate for at least a few decades, since most of the people who will be living in the world of 2040, for example, are already alive today.’
  • ‘And although such projections cannot predict the future, they can offer a rough guide to the emerging contours of international politics—the changing realm of the possible in world affairs.’

Bloomberg

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Matt Levine | Bloomberg
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VIEs
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Part 1 | 'Owning Chinese Companies Is Complicated'

‘ “Variable interest entities”(VIEs): The problem with this is that it sort of sounds like you’re kidding. But this is a standard method for mainland Chinese internet companies to go public, and the market has come to accept it.’
7/22/2021

Bloomberg

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Matt Levine | Bloomberg
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VIEs
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Part 2 | The DiDi VIE (as an example)

‘The prospectus has a diagram, above, of the corporate structure, which looks almost normal. But everything below the double arrow — the actual ride-hailing business, etc. — is slightly askew.’
7/22/2021

Bloomberg

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Matt Levine | Bloomberg
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VIEs
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Part 3 | Revising the Rules

‘The Chinese government could declare “all these VIE contracts are actually a disguised form of foreign ownership, which is not allowed by the rules, so they are all void and your Didi and Alibaba shares are worthless.” ’
7/22/2021

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Malcolm Riddell
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VIEs
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China: Signals Blinking Red & Oops, We Missed the Risks

I had intended to make this issue all about ‘Variable Interest Entities’ (VIEs) and the emerging risks to about $1.8 trillion dollars’ worth of Chinese shares listed on U.S. exchanges – that is, 4% of the capitalization of the U.S. stock markets.
7/22/2021

Nikkei Asia

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VIEs
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'Crackdown on US listings: Will China close $1.6tn VIE loophole?'

‘If Chinese authorities start to question “Variable interest entities”(VIEs), amid the crackdown that has already battered ride-hailing company Didi Global -- another VIE user -- the resulting loss of investor trust could send shock waves through global financial markets.’
7/22/2021

Financial Times

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Jamie Powell | Financial Times
7/22/2021

Foreign Policy

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
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China's Grand Strategy
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1 | 'Wolf Warriors Killed China’s Grand Strategy—and We'll All Come to Miss It'

‘The predominant feature of Chinese conduct today is not grand strategy but a belligerent, defensive nationalism that lashes out without heed of consequences.’ Sometime in 2020, China came unmoored from its grand strategy.
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
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China's Grand Strategy
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2 | Blame It on Xi

‘In China’s case, the Xi era has seen the accumulation of somewhat counterproductive policies that catalyzed a breakdown.’
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
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China's Grand Strategy
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3 | Enter the ‘Wolf Warriors’

‘What changed in 2020 was that nationalism for its own sake became the predominant motif of Chinese conduct.’
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
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China's Grand Strategy
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4 | Why China Abandoned Its Grand Strategy

‘The most persuasive explanation is that China has poisoned itself through its own rhetoric.’
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
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China's Grand Strategy
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5 | Two Caveats

‘Highlighting the strategic questionability of China’s policies doesn’t mean that Beijing’s fears of the outside world are completely unjustified.’
6/3/2021

Foreign Policy

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan | The Fletcher School of Law & Diplomcy, Tufts University and the author of 'Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping'
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China's Grand Strategy
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6 | The Risks & the Dangers

‘The real danger is that once toxin has spread through the system, there is no knowing where it will end.’
6/3/2021

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Malcolm Riddell
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China's Grand Strategy
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Killing China's Grand Strategy

Trend: Under the Xi Jinping administration, China has amped up abrasive ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy; cracked down within its borders, despite protests and criticisms from other countries; become increasing bellicose in responding to those protests and criticisms, and any other pushback it doesn’t like; and increased its aggressive rhetoric and actions against neighbors. Risks: If this sounds like a problem just for the world’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs, think again – the impact extends deep into business and finance.
6/3/2021

Project Syndicate

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Shang-Jin Wei
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Columbia University

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China's demographic challenges
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'Sex and the Chinese Economy'

‘A rise in China’s male-female ratio may have contributed to between one-third and one-half of the increase in its trade surplus with other countries.’ ‘The sex imbalance thus likely underpins an important source of tension between China and the US. Yet bilateral engagement has paid scant attention to this linkage.’
5/27/2021

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Malcolm Riddell
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China's demographic challenges
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'Demography + Technology is Destiny'

The census showed that the number of births nationwide fell to the lowest level since 1961, following a nationwide, manmade, famine caused by Mao’s “Great Leap Forward” that killed tens of millions of people, and that China’s total population could peak in the next few years.
5/27/2021

Bloomberg

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China's demographic challenges
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'China: Births Falling'

‘China’s total population could peak in the next few years, spurring profound changes for the world’s second-biggest economy.’
5/27/2021

Bloomberg

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China's demographic challenges
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'China Bets on Productivity Over Population to Drive Its Economy'

‘Beijing has a two-pronged approach to maintaining economic growth as its population shrinks.’ ‘First, it intends to slow the decline of the urban workforce by raising the retirement age and encouraging migration of more of the country’s 510 million rural residents to cities.’ ‘Second, it plans to raise productivity -- a measure of economic output per worker -- with the latest five-year plan emphasizing better vocational education and more investment in scientific research, automation and digital infrastructure.’ [see second chart above]
5/27/2021

Financial Times

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Gideon Rachman | Financial Times
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China's demographic challenges
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'Lousy demographics will not stop China’s rise'

‘The old maxim ‘demography is destiny’ no longer holds in the same way that it used to.’ ‘A shrinking and ageing population may not have the same gloomy implications in the 21st century.’
5/27/2021