Subscribe
China Macro Reporter
close
January 2021

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; border-bottom:solid 10px #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>January 20, 2021</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:center; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5fc2c325b2be470b39241339_Malcolm%20Riddell.png" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><span style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Biden's China Hawks</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?]</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">H. R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic">&nbsp;&nbsp;</em><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue.</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"></em><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Including an article here does imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic">&nbsp;</em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As I write, </strong>Joe Biden has just become the 46th President of the United States.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With this event, </strong>I will depart from the non-partisan approach I try to bring to CHINADebate and say that for me this is a day for celebrating.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said,</strong> I repeat that former President Donald Trump receives full marks for alerting all of us to the risks and dangers that China poses.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The rub of course</strong> is that the policies and actions Mr. Trump selected to meet these were not coordinated and sustained – and frankly were the wrong ones.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So, with Mr. Trump out of office,</strong> I may not have another opportunity to invoke my usual question that implicitly critiques Trump China policy: ‘What would Reagan do?</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because, unlike Mr. Trump,</strong> Reagan, in striving to end (not win) the Cold War, had a clear objective, policies coordinated into broad strategies, and sustained application of these.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Were these the right ones?</strong> The proof is in the results.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because of the failures of Mr. Trump’s China policies, </strong>I was taken aback by the title of an essay by former National Security Advisor, Gen. H. R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy.'</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gen. McMaster</strong> gets one big thing wrong when he writes: ‘U.S. policy between the end of the Cold War and 2017 was based on a flawed assumption: that China, having been welcomed into the international order, would play by the rules, and, as it prospered, would liberalize its economy and, ultimately, its form of governance.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In fact,</strong> this was never the avowed aim of the administrations during the period he cites.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This would be a quibble</strong> except that it may well be that, based on his writings, the incoming Indo-Pacific Coordinator, Kurt Campbell, may hold the same incorrect view, and that is an issue for crafting policy – keep an eye out for this.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the real problem </strong>is that Gen. McMaster conflates a strategy with actions to implement it. He writes:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Little noticed</strong> during a week when the House of Representatives voted for impeachment, the Trump administration&nbsp;released a partially declassified document&nbsp;from February 2018 entitled “U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That document,</strong> and the collaborative work across the U.S. government during the year that preceded it, effected the most significant shift in U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">True or not, </strong>the shift didn’t result in effective action.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Still the ‘Strategic Framework’</strong> has much to commend it and is worth the Biden team’s attention.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But it will no doubt end up in the trash</strong> can as they formulate new policies that match President Biden’s worldview.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So instead of doing ‘the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy,'</strong> as Gen. McMaster suggests, the Biden team would do better to craft policies following the nuanced approach laid out by Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Dr. Kennedy contends:</strong> ‘Although the Trump administration has tried to intentionally handcuff its successors, the Biden administration has substantial flexibility to reshape America’s China policy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To successfully transition</strong> to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing measures should not be treated in the same way.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> they can be sorted into four categories (see below figure):' &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Unilateral Multilateralism'</strong></li></ol><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Isolate China'</strong></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Bilateral Stabilization'</strong></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Modified Restrictions and Reforms’</strong>&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Each of these </strong>should be handled differently.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6FgosK?track_p_id=6VQ3q6w50vGzm_Vv1hFpcks" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ic2ZEcvr7ECCRE5xYd6lkzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Of the many prescriptive China essays</strong> I have read, this is among the top.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It is so rich</strong> that the few excerpts I included below don’t do justice to Dr. Kennedy’s analysis.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So be sure</strong> to read the entire piece. Even if the Biden administration doesn’t follow his recommendations, you will be better able to analyze the policies and actions it does take using his framework.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally,</strong> in an oblique answer to Gen. McMaster’s suggestion that the Biden administration keep Trump China policy is the observation in the title of an article in <em style="font-style: italic">Fortune</em>: 'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In recent days,</strong> as Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether Beijing</strong> will find it easier to engage with Biden's China hawks than Trump's China hawks remains unclear.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So perhaps Gen. McMaster</strong> can rest easier knowing that even if specific Trump policies are not followed their spirit appears to be intact.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And if President Biden’s China policy is carried out in the Reagan mode, </strong>we may find that instead of a pejorative, ‘Beijing Biden,’ may become a sobriquet of acclaim.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Like General ‘Chinese’ Gordon</strong> and the Ever Victorious Army.&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"></div></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">1. Biden's China Hawks                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7NA8xc?track_p_id=5YxiC46SKuy6_ALTWU4BB5L" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/-GjbiwIvquo2oUple0R8-ki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7NA8xc?track_p_id=as6%403fS4LB26SKuy6_Yukh5" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'When it comes to China, Team Biden sounds a lot like Team Trump'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7NA8xc?track_p_id=7Zp5lR316SKuy6_eoRovjMU" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/kGPPdE-_x2TWVD_NWuTpTjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Fortune</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President-elect Joe Biden vows</strong> that, in his first ten days as president, he'll&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-plans-blitz-of-executive-action-in-first-10-days.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">roll back</a>&nbsp;nearly every major policy initiative of the Trump administration.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And yet, in one key area—dealing with China</strong>—Biden has signaled he's in no rush to depart from the Trump administration policies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Orders to rescind Trump tariffs</strong> on $350 billion worth of Chinese imports are conspicuously absent from Biden's ten-day policy blitz.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nor has Biden suggested</strong> any immediate interest in overturning Trump administration actions to delist Chinese telecommunications companies on the New York Stock Exchange, or ban Chinese apps, or blacklist Chinese technology companies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden's aides</strong> have said that, for many problems involving China, the incoming president plans to take a multilateral approach by enlisting the support of Western allies to maximize U.S. leverage on Beijing.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That would be a clear departure</strong> from Trump's "America First" style.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But building that consensus</strong> will take time.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And in recent days,</strong> as Biden has announced his picks for cabinet positions and senior policy advisers, it has been almost impossible to distinguish his new team's China rhetoric from that of the departing Trump officials.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consider Tuesday,</strong> when Trump's Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on his last full day in office, took the rare step of issuing a formal determination accusing the Chinese government of engaging in "<a href="https://www.state.gov/determination-of-the-secretary-of-state-on-atrocities-in-xinjiang/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">genocide</a>" and "crimes against humanity" against predominantly Muslim Uighurs and other religious minorities in Xinjiang.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The judgment,</strong> issued after months of internal debate, is the strongest denunciation by any country of the Chinese government's treatment of Uighurs.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden's nominee for Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, </strong>appearing at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations committee, was swift to declare his support for Pompeo's finding. (The Biden campaign called China's treatment of Uighurs "genocide" in August.)’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Blinken</strong> didn't stop there. He also echoed Trump administration criticisms of China's early handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, affirmed the importance for U.S. military support for Taiwan, and lamented that "democracy is being trampled" in Hong Kong.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ "There is no doubt that [China]</strong> poses the most significant challenge of any nation-state in the world to the United States," Blinken told the committee.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That same day,</strong> Biden's nominee for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in a separate confirmation hearing, pronounced China guilty of "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-yellen-china-idUSKBN29O2C9" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">horrendous human rights abuses</a>"—and promised the Biden administration would "take on China's abusive, unfair and illegal practices." '</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yellen also&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://china-debate.scoop.it" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">accused Chyna</strong></a> of "erecting trade barriers and giving illegal subsidies to corporations" and "stealing intellectual property," and faulted its inadequate "labor and environmental standards." '</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And while she didn't specifically accuse China of currency manipulation, </strong>the former Federal Reserve chair promised to "oppose any and all attempts by foreign countries to artificially manipulate currency values to gain advantage in trade." ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Appearing before a third Senate panel, Avril Haines,</strong> Biden's nominee for director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said that, if confirmed, she would make it a top priority to devote more resources to countering the intelligence threat from an "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-intelligence/biden-intelligence-pick-favors-aggressive-stance-on-china-threat-idUSKBN29O18J" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">assertive and aggressive</a>" China.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other Biden appointments</strong> underscore the new president's willingness to emulate Trump's confrontational approach to China.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden has picked former Obama state department official Kurt Campbell</strong> to take on a newly created role within his National Security Council as "<a href="https://fortune.com/2021/01/14/joe-biden-asia-czar-kurt-campbell-china-beijing/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Indo-Pacific coordinator</a>." ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Campbell</strong> was the architect of the Obama administration's 2012 "pivot to Asia" strategy, which called for taking a tough line on China while bolstering U.S. military resources and diplomatic relationships in the rest of the region.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-02-13/china-reckoning" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2018 essay entitled</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> "The China Reckoning</strong>" and co-authored with former Biden aide Ely Ratner, Campbell argued that Trump was right to decry America's four-decades-long policy of engagement with China as a failure.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Politico</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/19/biden-pentagon-adviser-china-460370" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">reported</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;Tuesday</strong> that Biden has chosen Ratner, a veteran Asia analyst, as principal China adviser to Lloyd Austin III, the retired general nominated for Secretary of Defense.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Word of Ratner's selection</strong> drew praise from Republican security experts. "Ely Ratner is a strong addition" to the defense department, former Trump assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific affairs Randy Schriver told&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">Politico</em>.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ratner currently serves</strong> as executive vice-president and director for studies at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After the&nbsp;</strong><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Politico storey</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold"> published,</strong> he posted a link on&nbsp;<a href="https://fortune.com/company/twitter/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Twitter</a>&nbsp;to a January 2020 report published by the center entitled "<a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rising-to-the-china-challenge" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Rising to the China Challenge</a>." ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The report warns</strong> that "China is driving toward a more closed and illiberal future for the Indo-Pacific, core aspects of which would undermine vital U.S. interests." ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Former Trump officials</strong> also have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/09/biden-selects-katherine-tai-us-trade-representative/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">hailed</a>&nbsp;Biden's choice of Katherine Tai to lead the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘She has been described by trade experts on both sides</strong> of the partisan aisle as a negotiator whose views on Chinese trade practices&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3113396/bidens-us-trade-chief-pick-katherine-tai-unmatched-china" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">match those</a> of outgoing trade czar Robert Lighthizer, one of Trump's most vehement trade hawks.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Whether Beijing</strong> will find it easier to engage with Biden's China hawks than Trump's China hawks remains unclear.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">2. Keep Trump's China Policy [?]                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6wlRrc?track_p_id=09EH9xe_ZO4%40dapLy6umoBM" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6wlRrc?track_p_id=8SJI4F3fk9EH9xe_OB3b4uY" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">&nbsp;H.R. McMaster: 'Biden would do the world a favor by keeping Trump’s China policy'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6wlRrc?track_p_id=dyDWScCcVfYSEq9EH9xe_wG" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/4meM4pzxM5PW-GUzN36l7jl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gen. H.R. McMaster</strong> | former National Security Advisor</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No doubt the Biden administration will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Elements of Trump’s policies</strong> toward China are eminently worth preserving.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Little noticed</strong> during a week when the House of Representatives voted for impeachment, the Trump administration&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">released a partially declassified document&nbsp;</a>from February 2018 entitled “U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That document,</strong> and the collaborative work across the U.S. government during the year that preceded it, effected the most significant shift in U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The shift was long overdue,</strong> because U.S. policy between the end of the Cold War and 2017 was based on a flawed assumption:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘that China,</strong> having been welcomed into the international order, would play by the rules, and, as it prospered, would liberalize its economy and, ultimately, its form of governance.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> the Chinese Communist Party pursued an increasingly aggressive agenda, exploiting the United States’ policy of cooperation and engagement.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As national security adviser</strong> at the time, I was among those who worked on the policy underpinning the strategic framework.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Foremost </strong>among our new, more-realistic assumptions about the CCP’s aims was our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/21/biden-could-execute-strong-effective-china-policy-thanks-trump/?itid=lk_inline_manual_9" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">belief&nbsp;</a>that “strategic competition between the United States and China will persist, owing to the divergent nature and goals of our political and economic systems.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As China</strong> has continued its aggressive economic and military policies, the accuracy of that assessment has been confirmed.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘No doubt the Biden administration</strong> will see ways to improve the strategic framework we devised, but continuity with the approach is essential.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President-elect Joe Biden’s policy advisers</strong> can strengthen the framework by correcting three common misunderstandings about it.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘The first is that current Chinese aggression</strong> has resulted from U.S.-China tensions or is a response to the Trump administration’s description of China as a U.S. rival.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That’s a misreading,</strong> resulting from strategic narcissism — an arrogant conceit that CCP leaders have no aspirations, no volition except in reaction to the United States.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even a cursory survey</strong> of recent CCP actions shows how mistaken that view is.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Biden administration</strong> should begin its China policy review by recognizing that the United States did&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">not</em>&nbsp;cause CCP aggression and that CCP aggression is&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">not</em>&nbsp;just a U.S. problem.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP is a threat to the free world:</strong> The choice for other nations is not between Washington and Beijing but between sovereignty and servitude.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘The second misunderstanding</strong> is that the United States has eschewed international cooperation to counter CCP aggression in favor of an “America alone” approach.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet the strategic framework</strong> cited alliances and partnerships as essential, with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/oct/28/us-committed-to-supporting-india-in-advancing-shared-vision-for-free-open-indo-pacific-us-envoy-2216254.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">an emphasis&nbsp;</a>on a “shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Cooperation has grown since 2017,</strong> as can be seen in the invigoration of “the Quad” format (India, Japan, Australia and the United States), and growing law enforcement and intelligence cooperation against Chinese cyberwarfare and cyberespionage.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘The third misunderstanding</strong> is that U.S. competition with China is dangerous or even irresponsible because of “Thucydides’s Trap,” a term coined to express the likelihood of conflict between a rising power (China) and an allegedly declining power (the United States).’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP exploits</strong> perceptions of the trap by blaming the United States for trying to keep China down.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing isn’t aggressive in this fairy tale,</strong> it is simply standing up for the Chinese people.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The way for the United States</strong> to avoid the trap is neither to gravitate toward confrontation nor passive accommodation.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Transparent competition,</strong> as described in the Indo-Pacific strategy, can prevent unnecessary escalation — and it can foster cooperation with China, not foreclose on it.'</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Biden administration</strong> should be confident in the free world’s ability to compete effectively with the CCP and its authoritarian, mercantilist model.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the past year,</strong> the United States has been sorely tested by pandemic, recession, social division and political strife, but our republic has proved resilient.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is up to the task</strong> of working with partners to defend the free world from Chinese Communist Party aggression.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">3. Breaking Down Biden's China Challenges                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4sOMHw?track_p_id=1Q5rMOEA_Ov%40VFTbp63zFXn" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/VcdAHHrWxK2Oai7z2r1MjUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/4sOMHw?track_p_id=6hwQ6YC5rMOEA_jzPX2DHzN" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4sOMHw?track_p_id=dHNG5cIDSAAcc35rMOEA_wW" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/8_fZF5g-B9qtOmjYEjt2Czl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Center or Strategic &amp; International Studies (CSIS)</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Scott Kennedy</strong> | CSIS</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the Biden administration to successfully transition to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing Trump measures should not be treated in the same way.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although the Trump administration</strong> has tried to intentionally handcuff its successors, the Biden administration has substantial flexibility to reshape America’s China policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To successfully transition</strong> to a new and more effective China strategy, the various existing measures should not be treated in the same way.’</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead,</strong> they can be sorted into four categories (see below figure):' &nbsp;&nbsp;</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Unilateral Multilateralism'</strong></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Isolate China'</strong></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Bilateral Stabilization'</strong></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Modified Restrictions and Reforms’</strong>&nbsp;</li></ol><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Each of these </strong>should be handled differently.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4sOMHw?track_p_id=6q%40NU1T5rMOEA_HTClbGy2B" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Ic2ZEcvr7ECCRE5xYd6lkzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. ‘Unilateral Multilateralism’</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first group (in blue)</strong> is composed of actions the Biden administration should unilaterally eliminate without even engaging in negotiations with others.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reversing these policies</strong> will begin the process of repairing those ties and strengthening the United States’ influence in multilateral fora.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Fortunately, </strong>the Biden administration has signaled that it wants to support the World Trade Organization (WTO) and not undermine it, rejoin the Paris Agreement, maintain U.S. troops in Europe and Asia, rejoin the World Health Organization (WHO), and return to the Iran nuclear deal.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Taking these steps early</strong> will help clarify that the world’s most serious challenge is China, not U.S. allies and the international institutions they helped build.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Isolate China’</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the other end of the spectrum (in red),</strong> the Biden administration needs to maintain and, in some cases, expand restrictions where Chinese actions are beyond the pale and violate basic principles of human rights, threaten intellectual freedom, or flout the law.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The incoming administration</strong> should make human rights a presidential priority and expanding restrictions where possible.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The administration</strong> also needs to maintain restrictions and vigilance on dangerous Chinese behavior within the United States.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. ‘Bilateral Stabilization’</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although rebuilding confidence</strong> among U.S. allies and being tougher on China in certain areas have their challenges, far more complicated are issues that fall in between these extremes, which should be divided into two other separate categories:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘bilateral stabilization (in green)</strong> and modified restrictions and reforms (in purple).’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This category includes:</strong> rolling back the Section 301 tariffs; ending the tit-for-tat expulsion of journalists; reopening the Houston and Chengdu consulates; ending the dispute over the attempted extradition of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou and the arbitrary detentions of Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor; removing the threat to ban WeChat and TikTok; eliminating plans to issue shorter visas for Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members; and restoring the Fulbright and Peace Corps programs in China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These measures</strong> have hurt the U.S. economy, eroded U.S. soft power, done little to advance U.S. national security, and damaged the United States’ relationships with allies, all without imposing substantial costs on China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Removing these policies</strong> may help stabilize U.S.-China ties.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That said,</strong> taking these steps should not be done unilaterally but rather through bilateral negotiations in which China either reciprocates or addresses the U.S. concerns that prompted the restrictions to begin with.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. ‘Modified Restrictions and Reforms’</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The final category of policies,</strong> modified restrictions and reforms (in purple), is the thorniest, as it is composed of steps a Biden administration might not have adopted on its own but that nevertheless align with broadly held concerns about the downside risks of both bilateral engagement, particularly with regard to advanced technology, as well as the basic rules defining China’s engagement with the rest of the world.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration’s offensive</strong> on technology initially centered around a single company, Huawei.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Banning its equipment</strong> in U.S. 5G networks and restricting exports of certain U.S. technologies to Huawei likely make sense, but over the longer term, the United States and its allies need to develop a comprehensive certification and monitoring system for trusted products and services that applies worldwide, including to Chinese producers.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> also needs to reevaluate the benefits and downsides of the “foreign direct product rule” (FDPR), which in this case, starting in May 2020, extended export controls on U.S.-based firms to any company, U.S. or otherwise, producing goods from outside the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Invocation of extraterritoriality</strong> needs to be done extra carefully because of the effect on U.S. allies and the precedent it sets for others, including China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The U.S. Commerce Department</strong> has added over 400 Chinese companies to its traditional&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/lists-of-parties-of-concern/entity-list" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Entity List</a>&nbsp;and another one for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/lists-of-parties-of-concern/1770" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">military end-users</a>, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2472464/dod-releases-list-of-additional-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1237-of-fy/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Department of Defense</a>&nbsp;has identified over 40 companies it claims are controlled by the Chinese military.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Biden administration</strong> needs to evaluate and set standards that appropriately protect national security, can be implemented together with U.S. allies, and, if adopted by China, would at least in principle not be objectionable.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Trump administration, </strong>through the Department of Justice’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/information-about-department-justice-s-china-initiative-and-compilation-china-related" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">China Initiative</a>, also puts a great deal of energy into rooting out Chinese espionage and cyber theft, particularly directed at U.S. industries and institutions of higher learning.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These efforts</strong> are sorely needed and will likely have to be expanded.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the same time,</strong> it is important to proceed without demonizing any racial group and to not unnecessarily squash academic and research exchanges between the United States and China that help generate new innovations and promote greater Chinese appreciation for the United States, all of which can strengthen U.S. economy and national security.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> although the Trump administration’s frustration with the WTO and other international institutions is understandable, the Biden administration needs to work harder with allies and other like-minded countries to resolve differences, resuscitate the WTO, and have it and other organizations work to the advantage of the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although China has made major headway</strong> in making these bodies safe spaces for authoritarian state-capitalist countries, the United States should in no way concede defeat on any of the big substantive issues (e.g., the core importance of market economies and constraints on government interventionism, the multi-stakeholder model for internet governance, and 5G) and operational norms (e.g., transparency, accountability, and staying within defined mandates).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘An invocation</strong> from several years ago in defense of TPP still applies: “If we don’t make the rules, China will.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; border-bottom:solid 10px #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>January 16, 2021</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:center; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:30px 0 10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5fc2c325b2be470b39241339_Malcolm%20Riddell.png" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><span style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">'Where in the World is Jack Ma?'</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'The CCP's Ambivalence about the Private Sector’</strong></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping’</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. China’s Fintech Threat</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse’</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World’ | CHINA</strong></span></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China: Taming the Overshoot’</strong></li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue. Including an article here does imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.</strong></em><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">For the past several months </strong>- since the much-criticized speech, the Ant Financial IPO debacle, the regulatory dressing down, and the anti-monopoly probe into Alibaba - Jack Ma has not been seen in public.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘Where in the world is Jack Ma?’ has become a question both in the international press as well as on Chinese social media.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Reports say</strong> he’s not under detention, and he’s not been ‘disappeared.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Instead,</strong> it is said that, with shareholder, employees, regulators, and apparently even Xi Jinping all mad at him, he has made the decision to hunker down in Hangzhou and stay out of sight.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">It’s hard to see</strong> how he could do himself any good saying anything right now.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Casting doubt</strong> on this explanation are the number of Chinese billionaires and well-known figures who have fallen afoul of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party and come to bad ends.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So even if Mr. Ma</strong> is out of official clutches for the moment, it doesn’t mean his time isn’t coming.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As newsworthy </strong>as Mr. Ma’s plight is, more important is its place in the context of Xi Jinping’s efforts to bring the private sector generally and the fintech industry more specifically under tighter Party control.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Weaving these together,</strong> along with the story of CITIC founder and stay-behind capitalist, Rong Yiren, Neil Thomas has produced a terrific essay, ‘The Red Capitalist,’ in <em style="font-style: italic">The China Wire</em>. &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">He examines</strong> the changing fortunes of China’s private sector since the founding of the PRC.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And he contrasts</strong> the difference in the skills in navigating these changes between Mr. Rong (generally successfully) and Mr. Ma (to be determined).</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">[Note: </strong>I have omitted Mr. Rong’s story from the posts below because of length not interest – the entire essay is well-worth reading.]</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Thomas says: ‘Beijing has grown</strong> increasingly suspicious of powerful business elites.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under Xi Jinping,</strong> the Party has begun to exert greater control over the private sector, with plans announced&nbsp;last September to cultivate a “backbone team” of business executives who “unswervingly follow the Party” and cooperate in “major national strategies.”</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'There’s little doubt</strong> that business elites who defy the Party will be dealt with harshly.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In recent years, </strong>Beijing has hunted down entrepreneurs, seized their assets, and broken up and occasionally even nationalized firms deemed a systemic risk to the economy.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps no other nation</strong> has arrested more billionaires and brought them to heel.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even&nbsp;Jack Ma,</strong> the country’s best-known entrepreneur, seems to have fallen out of favor with the Party.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He’s been upbraided </strong>by Beijing and denounced in state media.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi is reported</strong> to have personally intervened to cancel the global stock offering of Ma’s Ant Group on the eve of what was expected to be the biggest IPO in history, following a strident speech Ma made in October.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the aftermath, </strong>banking and antitrust regulators are threatening to carve up parts of Ma’s $400 billion empire amid reports the 56-year-old&nbsp;internet tycoon&nbsp;has gone missing.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition to brazen contempt for Party officials </strong>[especially in that speech in October 2020], Ma’s transgression was made worse by his seeming obliviousness to the Party’s economic goals, which have shifted considerably in recent years.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘De-risking China’s debt-laden financial system</strong> became one of Xi’s top priorities.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The reason why Jack Ma and others</strong> could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing,” says Jim McGregor of APCO China.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Things changed </strong>once the Party-State started to see them as a potential source of financial risk, and therefore as a potential source of risk to social stability.” ’ says Harvard’s Meg Rithimire.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi, of course,</strong> is not Mao.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He&nbsp;</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">believes the private sector</strong> is an “intrinsic element” of China’s economy and refers to entrepreneurs as “our people.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi does not want to socialize business; </strong>he mostly wants private firms to support Party policies.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if the decision to rein in Ma</strong> is any indication, he will likely succeed.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stay tuned.</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;">&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Depending on how you look at it, </strong>the argument in 'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse' in <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em> by Nadia Schadlow and Richard Kang of Prism Global Management, either:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Contradicts the narrative outlined just now that the Party is out to control fintech regardless of the cost to industry, or</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">Presents a sort of flip side to that narrative, with the Party co-opting fintech in a plan for China’s geoeconomics dominance.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Either way</strong> the argument is provocative. Here goes:</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">First,</strong> ‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, Alipay [one of Jack Ma’s companies] and WeChat Pay</strong>—companies that make up 95 percent of China’s mobile payments market—integrate themselves into daily economic life in another country.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then, piggybacking off this financial infrastructure,</strong> they and other Chinese firms acquire digital banking licenses and rapidly expand into other sectors, including digital insurance, consumer credit, remittances, and lending.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These companies</strong> soon become too embedded in their host country to remove.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Second,</strong> ‘China’s bid for fintech hegemony in Asia is a step toward an even bigger goal: achieving global reserve currency dominance.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">How?</strong> Expansion of the digital Yuan.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So third,</strong> ‘Beijing is challenging the sway of the U.S. dollar over Southeast Asia and parts of Africa as it prepares to launch, likely within the next year, a&nbsp;sovereign digital yuan, which would make transactions easier and also enable China to better track how its currency is used.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consumers and merchants throughout Southeast Asia </strong>will soon be able to use the digital yuan on Alipay and WeChat Pay.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Later, the apps</strong> will serve as distributors of the digital yuan as local businesses find it more efficient to use the yuan than the dollar in transactions with Chinese companies.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP</strong> could then push for the digital yuan to be used instead of the U.S. dollar by bigger institutions and businesses conducting large transactions, such as making interest payments and financing supply chains.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s digital yuan</strong> could also siphon transactions away from Western-dominated money exchange platforms such as SWIFT, the key mechanism that maintains U.S. dollar dominance in global trade.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I don’t have the knowledge</strong> to judge how likely these scenarios are or to what extent they might succeed.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That said,</strong> from what little I do know, I can see Chinese fintech leading to at least a modest erosion of the dollar in Southeast Asian transactions.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But nothing in my studies</strong> show the Yuan as a serious threat to the dollar, from fintech or any other Chinese effort.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And while the Chinese government </strong>no doubt welcomes fintech’s expansion in Southeast Asia, I find it difficult to imagine that that would trump the Party’s aim of exerting more control over the industry and of lowing risks to China’s financial system.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">More disturbing</strong> is the essay’s pointing out that U.S. firms have not been ‘serious about offering other countries alternatives to China’s fintech companies, tapping the strength of U.S. technology firms.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Either Alibaba or Tencent</strong> has invested in every single one of the 13 technology unicorns—startups valued at $1 billion or more—in Southeast Asia.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Facebook and PayPal,&nbsp;</strong>by contrast, invested in their first Southeast Asian fintech player, Gojek, just last March.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The essay concludes:</strong> ‘U.S. companies such as Facebook, Google, and PayPal must not get boxed out of the world’s most significant growth markets, which are mostly in the Indo-Pacific region.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unlike the rest of the essay,</strong> that strikes me as unarguably true.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;">&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This issue concludes</strong> with another great analysis of the global economy from CreditSuisse, ‘2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As usual,</strong> I have just included the section on China, but the entire report is worth careful reading.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A few</strong> bottom lines:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Estimated 2021</strong> GDP growth: 7.1%<ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the recovery already underway,</strong> a GDP growth overshoot in 2021 appears inevitable.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From a policy perspective,</strong> we expect that authorities will likely avoid a pro-cyclical policy stance and, to the extent possible, rein in the overshoot in 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They would most likely prefer</strong> to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Translation: </strong>Even if GDP is 7.1%, the number reported this year will be lower, with the difference carried over.</li></ul></li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We expect a moderation to M2 growth</strong> on the monetary front from 10.4% in 2020 to 9.3% in 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the fiscal front, </strong>we expect a tighter fiscal stance.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We revised</strong> our expectation for 2021 headline CPI downward, from 2.5% yoy to 1.1% yoy, mainly due to pork deflation.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As per the exchange rate,</strong> the CNY is expected to experience additional appreciation over the coming 12 months.’                                                <ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We forecast USDCNY&nbsp;</strong>to reach around 6.3 by the end of 2021.’</li></ul></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You’ll find an analysis </strong>of each of these and more in the report.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">1. Where in the World is Jack Ma?</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5EE4zg?track_p_id=4McpS7GZ92c_paG43aJT5LA" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/aNd3J8r3Af21aimiU2kwwzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:1rem; font-size:10px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><h3 style="text-align: center;font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><span style="font-size: 100%"><strong style="font-weight: bold">At the Bund Summit on October 24th, Ma called China’s financial regulators a “geriatric club.” Since then, analysts called his speech the most expensive in history.</strong></span></h3></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5WOPJo?track_p_id=5uQwsO8fZTSQ_pWMNtHnW%40w" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/hzpVC3f-tQtl7XtjIBz6pki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5WOPJo?track_p_id=5cjfA38fZTSQ_SYQyDxLvfo" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The CCP's Ambivalence  About the Private Sector'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Wire</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Neil Thomas</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Analysts say the shift away from private enterprises is a sign Beijing felt that the private sector was getting ahead of the Party’s ability to control things.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Beijing has grown</strong> increasingly suspicious of powerful business elites.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Under a new paramount leader, Xi Jinping,</strong> the Party has begun to exert greater control over the private sector, with plans announced&nbsp;last September to cultivate a “backbone team” of business executives who “unswervingly follow the Party” and cooperate in “major national strategies.” '</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'There’s little doubt</strong> that business elites who defy the Party will be dealt with harshly.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In recent years,</strong> Beijing has hunted down entrepreneurs, seized their assets, and broken up and occasionally even nationalized firms deemed a systemic risk to the economy.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In Hong Kong,</strong> the authorities kidnapped the billionaire&nbsp;<a href="https://www.thewirechina.com/2020/07/17/china-seizes-tycoons-assets/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Xiao&nbsp;</a>Jianhua from&nbsp;the Four Seasons Hotel and then smuggled him across the border into mainland China, before dismantling his financial empire.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Just last week,&nbsp;</strong>the government handed down a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3116840/china-jails-former-china-development-bank-chief-hu-huaibang" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">life sentence</a>&nbsp;for one corrupt state executive and a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/business/china-huarong-death-penalty.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">death sentence</a>&nbsp;to another.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese Communist Party,</strong> of course, has never been entirely comfortable with capitalists.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Throughout its 71-year-history,</strong> even when the Party has relied heavily on market-driven growth, it has viewed private firms as a source of inequality, a rival to state enterprises, and perhaps an independent force that could undermine Party rule.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The Party likes to control everything,”</strong> says&nbsp;<a href="https://elliott.gwu.edu/bruce-dickson" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Bruce J. Dickson</a> of George Washington University.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “They worry</strong> about independent sources of wealth as a threat to the government. And there are two ways of dealing with that threat: you co-opt it or you crush it.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China, through the decades,</strong> has done both.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has invited businessmen</strong> to become members of the Communist Party, when that suited the goals of the leadership.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it has ousted and imprisoned them</strong> in strikingly large numbers, and then publicly pilloried them, as Jack Ma is now experiencing.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Perhaps no other nation</strong> has arrested more billionaires and brought them to heel.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Analysts say the shift away from private enterprises</strong> is a sign Beijing felt that the private sector was getting ahead of the Party’s ability to control things.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They say Beijing</strong> is now reasserting control over the economy and private entrepreneurs, bringing to an end a decades-long period of free-wheeling capitalism and globe-trotting business tycoons.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Party</strong> has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/china-quarterly/article/integrating-wealth-and-power-in-china-the-communist-partys-embrace-of-the-private-sector/EA99A64D882429152C77D71CF6AE88A6" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">generally succeeded</a>&nbsp;in eliciting support from entrepreneurs by giving them a greater stake in the system.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But as the private sector has ballooned in China</strong> — private firms comprised&nbsp;<a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/sjjd/202001/t20200122_1724483.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">84 percent&nbsp;</a>of all companies in 2018, up from&nbsp;<a href="http://cq.ifeng.com/a/20190827/7707871_0.shtml" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">17 percent</a>&nbsp;in 1996 — the Party has felt its influence over business wane.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A 2017 study by the Unirule Institute of Economics,</strong> a Chinese think tank since shut down by Beijing,&nbsp;<a href="http://unirule.cloud/index.php?c=article&amp;id=4670" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">found that&nbsp;</a>92 percent of private entrepreneurs believed political involvement helped their business, but only a small minority actually cared about the political goals of the Party.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For Xi,</strong> such ambivalence is alarming.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He has been clear</strong> about the need for risk-taking executives to respect control-oriented policies, including new regulations that strengthen United Front work in private firms and stress the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinese-communist-party-targets-private-sector" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">need</a>&nbsp;for “ideological and political education” of entrepreneurs.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He has also made moves</strong> to elevate the role of corporate Party committees from simply organizing political trainings for a firm’s Party members to “monitoring” whether business choices respect Party policy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To that end,</strong> his campaign to achieve “<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44440170" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">comprehensive coverage</a>” of Party committees in private firms has led to is the strictest supervision since the Mao era.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘According to an official survey,</strong> the&nbsp;<a href="https://macropolo.org/party-committees-private-sector-china/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">proportion&nbsp;</a>of private firms with Party committees rose from just 4 percent in 1993 to 48.3 percent in 2018, with a growth rate that’s more than doubled under Xi.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5EE4zg?track_p_id=ebKexSa4bXRrMdw7GZ92c_r" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/hzpVC3f-tQtl7XtjIBz6pki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5EE4zg?track_p_id=5adaPY7GZ92c_DYN3s5qvlr" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Jack Ma Misreads Xi Jinping'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The China Wire</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Neil Thomas</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">"The reason why Jack Ma and others could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing. They became famous globally and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them."</strong></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/business/international/at-alibaba-the-founder-is-squarely-in-charge.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jack Ma</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> the country’s best-known entrepreneur, seems to have fallen out of favor with the Party.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He’s been upbraided</strong> by Beijing and denounced in state media.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi is reported</strong> to have personally intervened to cancel the global stock offering of Ma’s Ant Group on the eve of what was expected to be the biggest IPO in history, following a strident speech Ma made in October.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the aftermath, </strong>banking and antitrust regulators are threatening to carve up parts of Ma’s $400 billion empire amid reports the 56-year-old&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/business/international/at-alibaba-the-founder-is-squarely-in-charge.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">internet tycoon&nbsp;</a>has gone missing.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It was the fall of 2020,</strong> and Jack Ma had reason to worry.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Recent moves by Beijing </strong>would tighten controls on digital finance and could stymie the business model of his digital payments company, Ant Group.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With Ant’s upcoming debut</strong> on Shanghai’s STAR market expected to be the biggest in history — a record $37 billion listing — Ma felt like he should speak up.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At the Bund Forum in Shanghai last October,</strong> he blasted China’s financial regulators as a “geriatric club” and argued that the tools they were using to control China’s financial system were misguided and out of touch.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The imposition of reserve requirements on micro-lenders</strong> such as Ant, he said, would be like “feeding dementia medication meant for seniors to a child suffering from polio.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘People close to Ma&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ant-group-ipo-suspension-regulators/how-billionaire-jack-ma-fell-to-earth-and-took-ants-mega-ipo-with-him-idUSKBN27L2GX" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">told&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">Reuters</em></a><em style="font-style: italic">&nbsp;</em>that he rejected suggestions to soften his remarks at the Bund Forum because the tech titan believed that “he should be able to say what he wanted.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After Ma’s speech,</strong> Xi <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-president-xi-jinping-halted-jack-ma-ant-ipo-11605203556?mod=hp_lead_pos4" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">ordered an investigation&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">into Ant’s lending practices,</strong> and just two days before Ant’s planned debut on November 5, the Shanghai Stock Exchange suspended Ant’s listing — the stated reason being the sudden approval (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ant-group-ipo-suspension-regulators/how-billionaire-jack-ma-fell-to-earth-and-took-ants-mega-ipo-with-him-idUSKBN27L2GX" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">with Xi’s blessing</a>) of tough new rules that require Ant to guarantee up to $20 billion more of its loans.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/jack-ma-makes-ant-offer-to-placate-chinese-regulators-11608479629." rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">sensational report&nbsp;</strong></a>published in late December,&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">The Wall Street Journal</em>&nbsp;said that just before the authorities canceled the Ant Group IPO in November, Jack Ma offered to hand over to the government parts of his online financial emporium.'&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then a week later,</strong> Beijing also announced antitrust measures for tech firms.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ant’s market valuation,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/11/10/jack-ma-profile/content.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">by one estimate</a>, has been halved.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ma is a Party</strong> member and once&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/87883923-e321-4632-a1cb-dc2663a00456" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">boasted</a>&nbsp;to fellow entrepreneurs about his closeness with Xi Jinping.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But while the national business hero</strong> has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ant-group-ipo-suspension-regulators/how-billionaire-jack-ma-fell-to-earth-and-took-ants-mega-ipo-with-him-idUSKBN27L2GX" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">prevailed&nbsp;</a>against regulators in the past, observers say his speech contravened the prevailing wisdom for business leaders in China since Rong’s time.’&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is,</strong> “serve the Party — within whatever limits the current Party line allows, but don’t get too far out in front,” says&nbsp;<a href="https://www.thewirechina.com/2020/11/15/mr-china/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Jerome A. Cohen</a>, a legal scholar.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Towing the party-line in public statements</strong> is safer than expressing independent opinions about China’s political economy,” says&nbsp;<a href="https://hkust.edu.hk/senior-adm/dean-of-humanities-and-social-science" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Kellee S. Tsai</a>, a professor at Hong Kong University of Science &amp; Technology.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Look what happened to&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/77259e51-d9e3-4fab-a5f6-39aff00c38ac" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ren Zhiqiang&nbsp;</strong></a>[the real estate tycoon recently sentenced to 18 years in prison for criticizing the Party].” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But in addition to brazen contempt for Party officials, </strong>Ma’s transgression was made worse by his seeming obliviousness to the Party’s economic goals, which have shifted considerably in recent years.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In 2015, a stock market crisis</strong> combined with unexpectedly volatile experiments in RMB devaluation “played a huge role in convincing Xi Jinping that the private sector was not under control, that the Party-State had not even close to sufficient insight into what corporate finance was like in China and into what financial innovation was happening,” says Harvard’s Meg Rithmire.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘De-risking China’s debt-laden financial system</strong> became one of Xi’s top priorities.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though Ma</strong> may be right about the need for more innovation in China’s financial sector, Rithmire says his speech highlighted how the fissures between profit-maximization and Party priorities have widened in recent years.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It used to be that, within limits,</strong> capitalists were allowed to do what they wanted to do because their pursuit of profits was producing economic growth for China,” Rithmire says.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “But things changed</strong> once the Party-State started to see them as a potential source of financial risk, and therefore as a potential source of risk to social stability. For a long time, we thought that growth was the bottom line for the CCP, but the bottom line is actually social stability.”’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The reason why Jack Ma and others</strong> could build enormous Internet companies is because the Party had no idea what they were doing,” says Jim McGregor of APCO China.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “They became famous globally </strong>and made China look very good, but then the Party had to figure out how to get their arms around them.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi, of course,</strong> is not Mao.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.neican.org/p/china-neican-20-september-2020" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">believes</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> the private sector</strong> is an “intrinsic element” of China’s economy and refers to entrepreneurs as “our people.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi does not want to socialize business; </strong>he mostly wants private firms to support Party policies.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And if the decision to rein in Ma</strong> is any indication, he will likely succeed.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">2. China's Fintech Threat</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5oYjdw?track_p_id=aDydXeTLtpW8cpGBS_aeQlb" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5oYjdw?track_p_id=avStjvTs3pM8cpGBS_YzNtM" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Financial Technology Is China’s Trojan Horse'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5oYjdw?track_p_id=cGYPb4pyhC5R58cpGBS_IqY" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/JJzhgAuZTrpg5NGN3Fz__zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><br><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Nadia Schadlow &amp; Richard Kang</strong> | Prism Global Management</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In one of his last acts as president,</strong> Donald Trump issued an executive order banning eight Chinese software applications, including Alipay and WeChat, the world’s largest mobile payment app.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s ban,</strong> issued on January 5, sought to address concerns that these popular Chinese apps might allow Beijing access to sensitive data about Americans.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China’s emerging dominance in financial technology,</strong> also known as “fintech,” poses an even more fundamental problem for the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing will use fintech</strong> to occupy the high ground in global commerce, bolster its surveillance state, and lay the groundwork to challenge the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Embed Fintech in Economies.</strong></span> ‘China’s dominance in fintech promises to boost the CCP’s expansionist ambitions in another way, hardwiring other countries to China’s economy. Chinese fintech firms function like a geoeconomic Trojan horse.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘First, Alipay and WeChat Pay</strong>—companies that make up 95 percent of China’s mobile payments market—integrate themselves into daily economic life in another country.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then, piggybacking off this financial infrastructure,</strong> they and other Chinese firms acquire digital banking licenses and rapidly expand into other sectors, including digital insurance, consumer credit, remittances, and lending.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These companies</strong> soon become too embedded in their host country to remove.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yuan Reserve Currency Dominance.</strong></span><span style="color: #d0021b"></span>‘China’s bid for fintech hegemony in Asia is a step toward an even bigger goal: achieving global reserve currency dominance.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last fall,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/chinas-yuan-rmb-to-become-third-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-morgan-stanley.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">analysts at the U.S. financial services firm Morgan Stanley forecast</a>&nbsp;that the yuan could surpass the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling to become the world’s third-largest reserve currency by 2030, accounting for between five and ten percent of global foreign exchange reserve assets.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Countries in the Southeast Asia</strong> may soon begin to increase the share of yuan in their foreign currency reserves.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Digital Yuan.</strong></span> ‘Beijing is challenging the sway of the U.S. dollar over Southeast Asia and parts of Africa as it prepares to launch, likely within the next year, a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3083952/what-chinas-cryptocurrency-sovereign-digital-currency-and-why" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">sovereign digital yuan</a>, which would make transactions easier and also enable China to better track how its currency is used.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Consumers and merchants throughout Southeast Asia</strong> will soon be able to use the digital yuan on Alipay and WeChat Pay.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Later, the apps</strong> will serve as distributors of the digital yuan as local businesses find it more efficient to use the yuan than the dollar in transactions with Chinese companies.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The CCP</strong> could then push for the digital yuan to be used instead of the U.S. dollar by bigger institutions and businesses conducting large transactions, such as making interest payments and financing supply chains.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That shift has already begun</strong>—even before the release of China’s new sovereign digital currency.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As bilateral trade</strong> between China and Southeast Asian countries has grown in recent decades, so has the share of trade that is conducted in Chinese yuan, eating into the U.S. dollar’s share of bilateral trade.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s digital yuan</strong> could siphon transactions away from Western-dominated money exchange platforms such as SWIFT, the key mechanism that maintains U.S. dollar dominance in global trade.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘CCP officials have described SWIFT</strong> as a means for the United States to maintain “global hegemony” and reap “huge profits by virtue of the monopoly platform.” U.S. officials must take Chinese moves in this area seriously.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Max Levchin, a co-founder of PayPal,</strong> believes that if the United States does not make a digital version of the dollar more readily available, “we run the risk of letting China become the digital reserve currency of the world.” ’ &nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> will lose the leverage and influence it has over many countries if they increasingly opt for the yuan over the dollar.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Countering Chinese Fintech.</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>‘The United States must get serious about offering other countries alternatives to China’s fintech companies, tapping the strength of U.S. technology firms.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And yet these firms</strong> have been slow to involve themselves in the growing competition with China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Either Alibaba or Tencent</strong> has invested in every single one of the 13 technology unicorns—startups valued at $1 billion or more—in Southeast Asia.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Facebook and PayPal,</strong> by contrast, invested in their first Southeast Asian fintech player, Gojek, just last March.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘U.S. companies</strong> such as Facebook, Google, and PayPal must not get boxed out of the world’s most significant growth markets, which are mostly in the Indo-Pacific region.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">3. 2021 Economic Outlook: Sunrise in a Fractured World' | CHINA                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rj1uq?track_p_id=08w1ut4_ZODXKopxW%40bBZCL" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Pd2AGi8v7b5rElII6CSyYki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7rj1uq?track_p_id=7MbYFwJ18w1ut4_VgdXCJ3N" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China: Taming the Overshoot'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7rj1uq?track_p_id=9SLIXuQzNF8w1ut4_U4NTtj" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/01EHofV0BiZEx-Zpdpf5Sjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We expect GDP growth to improve to 7.1% in 2021 from 2.2% in 2020.</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"></em><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Realized growth will likely overshoot potential growth in 2021, but from a policy perspective, we expect that the authorities would prefer to avoid an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CreditSuisse has published another great analysis of the global economy. Here is just the China section. </strong></em><a href="https://plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=V7pfBS2AC-WEsuhy" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read the full 92-page report.</strong></em></a></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese economy</strong> is coming out of the pandemic slump earlier than other economies, but the recovery has been uneven.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Starting in Q320,</strong> production-side indicators have been rebounding faster than expenditure-side indicators.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There has however been a noticeable unevenness</strong> on the expenditure side.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The infrastructure and real estate sectors</strong> have disproportionately benefited from the stimulus, while in contrast, private manufacturing, services, and parts of the household sector have lagged due to fragmented credit allocation mechanisms.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We anticipate the divergence</strong> between production and expenditure-side indicators to fade going into 2021, a process that recent indicators suggest is already underway.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The fashion of the convergence</strong> is expected to rely more on the acceleration of the expenditure-side recovery, but it will also include a moderation to production momentum.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even with anticipated growth of 7.1% in 2021,</strong> the risk is actually skewed to the upside.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the unevenness within the expenditure side,</strong> we anticipate manufacturing fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth, which has been lagging other FAI components, to catch up (Figure 46, above).’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,</strong> we also expect the ongoing rebound in services consumption to continue as disposable income growth recovers (Figure 47, above).’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘With the recovery already underway,</strong> a GDP growth overshoot in 2021 appears inevitable.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘From a policy perspective,</strong> we expect that authorities will likely avoid a pro-cyclical policy stance and, to the extent possible, rein in the overshoot in 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They would most likely prefer to avoid</strong> an aggressive overshoot in one particular year in exchange for a smoother and more sustainable growth profile over the next five years.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Specifically,</strong> we expect a moderation to M2 growth on the monetary front from 10.4% in 2020 to 9.3% in 2021.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On the fiscal front,</strong> we expect a tighter fiscal stance.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The one-time COVID-19 treasury issuance,</strong> which accounted for about 1% of GDP, will almost certainly not be repeated in 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Special purpose bonds will remain,</strong> but we expect their annual quota to decrease by roughly half a percentage point of GDP relative to that of 2020.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘There will likely also be modest downward adjustments</strong> to the official fiscal deficit target of about 0.3- 0.5% of GDP in 2021 relative to the 3.6% target in 2020.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Abstracting away from any multiplier effect,</strong> the fiscal drag in 2021 relative to that of 2020 would be approximately 2% of GDP.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To be clear,</strong> even with the tightening policy stance, overall GDP growth and its various key components are still expected to have above-trend growth in 2021.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For example,</strong> we expect real estate investment (REI) to grow by 6.5% in 2021, faster than the anticipated growth rate for 2020 (4.1%) but slower than pre- COVID-19 growth in 2019 of 10.0%.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘REI growth in 2020</strong> will likely fall below the implied growth rate based on macroeconomic factors such as M2 growth and house price inflation, predominantly attributed to the COVID-19-induced contraction experienced in Q120.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Hence,</strong> despite the anticipated slowdown to M2 growth in 2021 and authorities’ ongoing effort to curb house price inflation, we expect REI growth in 2021 to be higher than the implied growth rate normally associated with such macro conditions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We revised</strong> our expectation for 2021 headline CPI downward, from 2.5% yoy to 1.1% yoy, mainly due to pork deflation.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After looking at</strong> sequential price momentum instead of year-over-year numbers, which are distorted by the base effect, we believe that headline CPI is about to enter a reflationary cycle.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As China continues</strong> to reduce its production-expenditure rebound gap, there might be a modest improvement to core inflation.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We do not think that the PBoC</strong> will react to the disinflation in CPI with a more accommodating monetary stance.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the same reason that the PBoC</strong> did not tighten when pork drove up inflation during 2019, it will most likely not respond to pork-driven disinflation.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As per the exchange rate,</strong> the CNY is expected to experience additional appreciation over the coming 12 months.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We forecast USDCNY</strong> to reach around 6.3 by the end of 2021.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moving beyond 2021,</strong> we anticipate three key policy categories to be emphasized in the next five-year plan:’</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Technology Advancement.</strong> The technology category encompasses the ongoing efforts to establish “new infrastructure,” innovate and enhance capabilities in the key strategic sectors, and secure essential inputs.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Labor Productivity.</strong> The labor category aims to increase labor productivity, including labor market reforms to facilitate labor movement, educational reform to improve the quality of the labor force, and a further opening of Chinese markets to foreign participation and competition.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Land Reform.</strong> Finally, the land reform category aims to clarify land usage rights and the transfer of usage rights.’</li></ol><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The scope of this reform</strong> would cover at least farmland and land used for residential and commercial properties.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Land reform</strong> will directly affect the pace of urbanization, which in turn would provide ongoing support to sectors such as real estate and traditional infrastructure in avoiding cliff-like decelerations.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> we view China’s participation in the recently signed RCEP as a positive development for multilateralism and trade within the region.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This should also slow down</strong> the decoupling forces between China and the rest of the world.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; border-bottom:solid 10px #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>January 13, 2021</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:center; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5fc2c325b2be470b39241339_Malcolm%20Riddell.png" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><span style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">Kurt Campbell &amp; Biden Asia Policy</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Kurt Campbell: Biden's 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator'</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell</strong></p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Restoring Balance'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Restoring Legitimacy'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Forging Coalitions'</li></ol><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue. Including an article here does imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">With President-elect Biden’s nomination of Kurt Campbell</strong> to be 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator' (a new title) at the National Security Council, we finally have clearly indications about the direction of China policy and Indo-Pacific policy more broadly under a Biden administration.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">We have this because Dr. Campbell,</strong> who has served in many senior international relations positions, has written extensively and recently about his Asia policy views.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The most recent </strong>was an essay in <em style="font-style: italic">Foreign Affairs</em> on January 12, 2021, which is presented in the posts below.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And given Dr. Campbell’s </strong>experience, seniority, and influence, we can also expect that he will be a key driver of Asia policy in the Biden administration.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In that recent essay,</strong> 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order,’ co-authored with Brookings Rush Doshi, he writes: ‘Two specific challenges, however, threaten the Indo-Pacific order’s balance and legitimacy.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first</strong> is China’s economic and military rise.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China alone accounts</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;">for half the region’s&nbsp;GDP&nbsp;and&nbsp;military&nbsp;spending, a gap that has only grown since the COVID-19 pandemic.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And like any rising state,</strong> China seeks to reshape its surroundings and secure deference to its interests.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The way Beijing has pursued these goals</strong>—South China Sea island building, East China Sea incursions, conflict with India, threats to invade Taiwan, and internal repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang—undermines important precepts of the established regional system.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This behavior,</strong> combined with China’s preference for economic coercion, most recently directed against Australia, means that many of the order’s organizing principles are at risk.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second challenge</strong> is more surprising because it comes from the original architect and longtime sponsor of the present system—the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite determined efforts </strong>by the Trump administration’s Asia experts to mitigate the damage, President Donald Trump himself strained virtually every element of the region’s operating system.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He pressed allies</strong> such as Japan and South Korea to renegotiate cost-sharing agreements for U.S. bases and troops and threatened to withdraw forces entirely if he was unsatisfied with the new terms.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both moves undermined alliances</strong> the Indo-Pacific needs to remain balanced.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump was also generally absent</strong> from regional multilateral processes and economic negotiations, ceding ground for China to rewrite rules central to the order’s content and legitimacy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally, he was cavalier</strong> about support for democracy and human rights in ways that weakened the United States’ natural partners and emboldened Chinese authorities in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This combination</strong> of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the region in flux.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">To address these, he writes:</strong> ‘A strategy for the&nbsp;Indo-Pacific today&nbsp;would benefit from satisfying three needs:’&nbsp;</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the need</strong> for a balance of power;’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the need</strong> for an order that the region’s states recognize as legitimate; and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the need</strong> for an allied and partner coalition to address China’s challenge to both.’</li></ol><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I have included</strong> Dr. Campbell’s comments on each of these in separate posts below.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Josh Rogin</strong> of <em style="font-style: italic">The Washington Post </em>writes:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President-elect Biden</strong> has announced a new Asia-related position inside the National Security Council and has&nbsp;chosen&nbsp;former State Department official Kurt Campbell to fill it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The move</strong> should reassure nervous Asian allies that the Biden administration is taking the China challenge seriously.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Campbell&nbsp;</strong>will join the administration with the title of “Indo-Pacific coordinator,” a job that will give him broad management over the NSC directorates that cover various parts of Asia and China-related issues.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The announcement</strong> is viewed favorably by those Asia experts in Washington who hope the Biden administration will take a more competitive approach to dealing with China than the Obama administration did.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “China hawks&nbsp;</strong>have a healthy skepticism about how the Biden administration will approach Beijing, but bringing in Kurt to play this senior role, and all the more junior, competitive-minded people who will work for him, is a very encouraging sign,” said Eric Sayers, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It will be bureaucratically tricky </strong>to make this position work smoothly in our government, but if anyone has the personality and drive to pull it off, it’s Kurt.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Rogin notes</strong>: ‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the real test </strong>will be whether the Biden administration actually devotes the time and resources needed to complete the “Pivot to Asia” Campbell first pitched a decade ago.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Given how Asian nations</strong> remember the failed ‘Pivot,’ Dr. Campbell will have to give them an awfully lot of reassurance to gain their support in the competition with China.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Stay tuned.</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">1. Kurt Campbell: Biden's 'Indo-Pacific Coordinator'                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xyazg?track_p_id=156vng3a_BXP%40mDWTEv5wMs" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/4xyazg?track_p_id=116vng3a_h3wmL6Sb41AUZS" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Kurt Campbell, Biden’s pick for a new NSC Asia position, should reassure nervous allies'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/4xyazg?track_p_id=54IRyG6vng3a_E3bd%40bQifV" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/BvYC2pb8lYRFpDfiBHXD-Tl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Josh Rogin</strong> | The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Asia watchers in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.'</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President-elect Biden</strong> has announced a new Asia-related position inside the National Security Council and has&nbsp;<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-we-can-tell-from-bidens-administration-picks/2021/01/12/ef0b0f96-5522-11eb-a931-5b162d0d033d_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">chosen</a>&nbsp;former State Department official Kurt Campbell to fill it. The move should reassure nervous Asian allies that the Biden administration is taking the China challenge seriously.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Campbell</strong> will join the administration with the title of “Indo-Pacific coordinator,” a job that will give him broad management over the NSC directorates that cover various parts of Asia and China-related issues.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The announcement</strong> is viewed favorably by those Asia experts in Washington who hope the Biden administration will take a more competitive approach to dealing with China than the Obama administration did.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “China hawks </strong>have a healthy skepticism about how the Biden administration will approach Beijing, but bringing in Kurt to play this senior role, and all the more junior, competitive-minded people who will work for him, is a very encouraging sign,” said Eric Sayers, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “It will be bureaucratically tricky </strong>to make this position work smoothly in our government, but if anyone has the personality and drive to pull it off, it’s Kurt.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Campbell,</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">one of the most senior Asia hands</strong> in the Democratic foreign policy ranks, last served in government as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs under Hillary Clinton.'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Together,</strong> they helped form the Obama administration’s&nbsp;<a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">“Pivot to Asia”</a> '</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In late 2019,</strong> Campbell and Sullivan laid out their theory of the case for dealing with China&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/competition-with-china-without-catastrophe" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">in an essay</a>&nbsp;for Foreign Affairs titled “Competition Without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They argued that the Trump administration </strong>had it right when it identified China as a “strategic competitor” in its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">2017 National Security Strategy</a>, but they said this competition must be waged with vigilance and humility, structured around the goal of coexisting with China rather than expecting to change it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Although coexistence</strong> offers the best chance to protect U.S. interests and prevent inevitable tension from turning into outright confrontation, it does not mean the end of competition or surrender on issues of fundamental importance,” they wrote.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">' “Instead,</strong> coexistence means accepting competition as a condition to be managed rather than a problem to be solved.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Campbell believes the United States</strong> must not return to a strategy based on engaging China in hopes that China will liberalize.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> must acknowledge that strategy didn’t work, he wrote&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-02-13/china-reckoning" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">in a 2018 Foreign Affairs essay&nbsp;</a>with Ely Ratner, Mr. Biden's nominee to be assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On Tuesday, </strong>Campbell and Rush Doshi, director of the Brookings Institution's China Strategy Initiative, released&nbsp;<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-12/how-america-can-shore-asian-order" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">a new Foreign Affairs essay</a>&nbsp;[see the next post] focused on how the United States can “shore up” the international order in Asia, by restoring a balance of power with China, bolstering alliances and then using those alliances to push back on Beijing’s aggressive actions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Through a network of overlapping coalitions,</strong> the United States should join with like-minded partners to “send a message [to Beijing] that there are risks to China’s present course,” they wrote.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “This task</strong> will be among the most challenging in the recent history of American statecraft.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Asia watchers</strong> in Washington and America’s Asian allies should be reassured that Biden is planning to elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific region by creating this coordinator role and staffing it with someone so senior.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the real test</strong> will be whether the Biden administration actually devotes the time and resources needed to complete the “Pivot to Asia” Campbell first pitched a decade ago.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">2. 'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order' by Kurt Campbell                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fxFzM?track_p_id=9gB263LzdJ5IFgH0_6tdjJV" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/8fxFzM?track_p_id=dYIYhTHcm3ax3E5IFgH0_XP" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'How America Can Shore Up Asian Order'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kurt Campbell</strong> | nominee, Indo-Pacific Coordinator, NSC</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Rush Doshi</strong> | Brookings</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This combination of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the Indo-Pacific region in flux.'</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A strategy for the&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/competition-with-china-without-catastrophe" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Indo-Pacific today</strong></a>&nbsp;would benefit from satisfying three needs:’&nbsp;</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the need</strong> for a balance of power;’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the need</strong> for an order that the region’s states recognize as legitimate; and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘the need</strong> for an allied and partner coalition to address China’s challenge to both.’</li></ol><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Such an approach</strong> can ensure that the Indo-Pacific’s future is characterized by balance and twenty-first-century openness rather than hegemony and nineteenth-century spheres of influence.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The challenge for U.S. policy</strong> is not to create order out of chaos, but to modernize and strengthen elements of an existing system.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Indo-Pacific</strong> has evolved an “operating system,” that is as much about promoting commerce as preventing conflict.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Constructed in the aftermath of World War II,</strong> the region’s system is a combination of legal, security, and economic arrangements that liberated hundreds of millions from poverty, promoted countless commercial advances, and led to a remarkable accumulation of wealth.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘At its heart are time-tested principles:</strong> freedom of navigation, sovereign equality, transparency, peaceful dispute resolution, the sanctity of contracts, cross-border trade, and cooperation on transnational challenges.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States’ long-standing commitment</strong> to forward-deployed military forces, moreover, has helped underscore these principles.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Two specific challenges,</strong> however, threaten the order’s balance and legitimacy.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The first</strong> is China’s economic and military rise.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China alone accounts</strong> for half the region’s&nbsp;<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN-Z4" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">GDP&nbsp;</a>and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.google.com/url?q%3Dhttps://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/%26source%3Dgmail-imap%26ust%3D1610542878000000%26usg%3DAOvVaw3WA4SjUpisLNqzK4P-VZ6S&amp;source=gmail-imap&amp;ust=1610850810000000&amp;usg=AOvVaw05v5_Xrjo_SUg5jl7Iq4T5" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">military</a>&nbsp;spending, a gap that has only grown since the COVID-19 pandemic.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And like any rising state,</strong> China seeks to reshape its surroundings and secure deference to its interests.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The way Beijing has pursued these goals</strong>—South China Sea island building, East China Sea incursions, conflict with India, threats to invade Taiwan, and internal repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang—undermines important precepts of the established regional system.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This behavior,</strong> combined with China’s preference for economic coercion, most recently directed against Australia, means that many of the order’s organizing principles are at risk.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second challenge</strong> is more surprising because it comes from the original architect and longtime sponsor of the present system—the United States.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Despite determined efforts</strong> by the Trump administration’s Asia experts to mitigate the damage, President Donald Trump himself strained virtually every element of the region’s operating system.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘He pressed allies</strong> such as Japan and South Korea to renegotiate cost-sharing agreements for U.S. bases and troops and threatened to withdraw forces entirely if he was unsatisfied with the new terms.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both moves undermined alliances</strong> the Indo-Pacific needs to remain balanced.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump was also generally absent</strong> from regional multilateral processes and economic negotiations, ceding ground for China to rewrite rules central to the order’s content and legitimacy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally, he was cavalier</strong> about support for democracy and human rights in ways that weakened the United States’ natural partners and emboldened Chinese authorities in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This combination</strong> of Chinese assertiveness and U.S. ambivalence has left the region in flux.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The contemporary Indo-Pacific</strong> feels like prewar Europe—drifting out of balance, its order fraying, and with no obvious coalition to address the problem.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the next U.S. administration</strong> wants to preserve the regional operating system that has generated peace and unprecedented prosperity, it needs to begin by addressing each of these trends in turn.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5G8vJo?track_p_id=5ppENV6htKgQ_yAUUwQtdGp" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5G8vJo?track_p_id=43OBv6htKgQ_%40o5pUZkzmXZ" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">1. 'Restoring Balance'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kurt Campbell</strong> | nominee, Indo-Pacific Coordinator, NSC</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Rush Doshi</strong> | Brookings</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “The balance of power,”</strong> Kissinger writes in&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic">A World Restored</em>, “is the classic expression of the lesson of history that no order is safe without physical safeguards against aggression.”&nbsp;Applied to the Indo-Pacific, such a warning is prescient:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s growing material power</strong> has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Left unchecked,</strong> Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The growing material imbalance</strong> between China and the rest of the region is notable.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing spends</strong> more on its military than all its Indo-Pacific neighbors combined.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has invested</strong> in anti-access/area-denial weapons (including supersonic missiles and “smart” mines) that threaten the viability of U.S. regional intervention.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It has also invested</strong> in blue-water, amphibious, and power-projection capabilities that Beijing could employ for offensive missions against India, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and others.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In response to these threats,</strong> the United States needs to make a conscious effort to deter Chinese adventurism.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Washington</strong> can start by moving away from its singular focus on primacy and the expensive and vulnerable platforms such as aircraft carriers designed to maintain it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Instead, the United States</strong> should prioritize deterring China through the same relatively inexpensive and asymmetric capabilities Beijing has long employed.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Real regional balance,</strong> however, also requires action in concert with allies and partners.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> needs to help states in the Indo-Pacific&nbsp;<a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rising-to-the-china-challenge&amp;source=gmail-imap&amp;ust=1610542878000000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2fbaxLHQGEZxr6DGeL7Yvd" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">develop</a> their own asymmetric capabilities to deter Chinese behavior.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although Washington</strong> should maintain its forward presence, it also needs to work with other states to disperse U.S. forces across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This would reduce American reliance</strong> on a small number of vulnerable facilities in East Asia.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Finally,</strong> the United States should encourage new military and intelligence partnerships between regional states, while still deepening those relationships in which the United States plays a major role—placing a “tire” on the&nbsp;familiar regional alliance system with a U.S. hub and allied spokes.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5YJFdw?track_p_id=8qU6dV%40fp8oFcAY_Gjb33Yd" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5YJFdw?track_p_id=9EBlVg%40cCH8oFcAY_1ulSQm" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">2. 'Restoring Legitimacy'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kurt Campbell</strong> | nominee, Indo-Pacific Coordinator, NSC</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Rush Doshi</strong> | Brookings</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Negotiating Beijing’s role in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Military and material balance alone,</strong> however, will not sustain a renewed regional order.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The stability of any international system,</strong> wrote Kissinger, ultimately relies on what he termed “generally accepted legitimacy.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Any international framework</strong> needs buy-in from the powers within it.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here,</strong> the United States will again need to play a central role.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike prewar Europe,</strong> legitimacy in the Indo-Pacific is not only a matter of international politics and security.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trade,</strong> technology, and transnational cooperation are also vital.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Evan Feigenbaum&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/10/31/a-tale-of-two-asias/&amp;source=gmail-imap&amp;ust=1610542878000000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3qZySKJV34B4xrw7PpFbgK" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">argues</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">,</strong> there are “two Asias” that together constitute the region’s order: one focused on politics and security and the other on economics.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s territorial adventurism</strong> undermines the former, its coercive economic policies undermine the latter, and U.S. ambivalence under Trump undermines both.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If those trends continue</strong> and Indo-Pacific states begin to view the current order as illegitimate, they may drift into China’s shadow.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Were that to occur,</strong> the dynamic region might split into spheres of influence: outside powers shut out, disputes resolved through force, economic coercion the norm, U.S. alliances weakened, and smaller states without autonomy and freedom to maneuver.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reversing these trends</strong> will be challenging and require diplomatic finesse, commercial innovation, and institutional creativity on the part of U.S. policymakers.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the political and security realm,</strong> bolstering the present order’s legitimacy will, at minimum, require serious U.S. reengagement: an end to shaking down allies, skipping regional summits, avoiding economic engagement, and shunning transnational cooperation.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This new posture</strong> will give the United States a greater regional role and empower Indo-Pacific states in the face of China’s growing clout.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the economic realm,</strong> strengthening the present order means ensuring the system continues to deliver material benefits for its members, even as China grows more sophisticated in its use of economic carrots and sticks.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In contrast to prewar Europe’s negotiations,</strong> which emphasized borders and political recognition, those in the Indo-Pacific will inevitably revolve around supply chains, standards, investment regimes, and trade agreements.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even as the United States</strong> works to reshore sensitive industries and pursue a “managed decoupling” from China, it can reassure wary regional states that moving supply chains out of China will often mean shifting them to other local economies, creating new growth opportunities.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Moreover,</strong> as China provides infrastructure financing through the Belt and Road Initiative, the United States should develop ways to provide alternative financing and technical assistance.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Negotiating Beijing’s role</strong> in this order is the most complex element of the overall endeavor.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although Indo-Pacific states</strong> seek U.S. help to preserve their autonomy in the face of China’s rise, they realize it is neither practical nor profitable to exclude Beijing from Asia’s vibrant future.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nor do the region’s states</strong> want to be forced to “choose” between the two superpowers.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A better solution</strong>&nbsp;would be for the United States and its partners to persuade China that there are benefits to a competitive but peaceful region organized around a few essential requirements:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a place for Beijing</strong> in the regional order;’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese membership </strong>in the order’s primary institutions;’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a predictable commercial environment </strong>if the country plays by the rules; and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘opportunities </strong>to jointly benefit from collaboration on climate, infrastructure, and the COVID-19 pandemic.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Marginal buy-in from China</strong> has played a central role in the region’s success thus far.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will remain important</strong> in the years ahead.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5aMqKu?track_p_id=3Tav8lLE5O_PMFjbTdqFDek" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5aMqKu?track_p_id=eV5ZHvGMCutAYPc8lLE5O_E" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">3. 'Forging Coalitions'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Kurt Campbell</strong> | nominee, Indo-Pacific Coordinator, NSC</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Rush Doshi</strong> | Brookings</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The principal challenge facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Although the idea that the United States</strong> should “work with allies” is almost a cliché, the challenges to doing so are significant.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Maintaining the existing Indo-Pacific order</strong> will inevitably require a broad coalition, and the very members that might join may not see the value of such a combined approach until the present system is irreversibly damaged.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The need for allies and partners</strong> is often evident only after the status quo is overturned.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Distant European leaders</strong> are inevitably less concerned about China’s assertiveness than the Indo-Pacific states next door.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The principal challenge</strong> facing the United States is to bridge European and regional approaches to Chinese challenges.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That task</strong> is made more difficult by Beijing’s economic power: last month, China used last-minute concessions to successfully pull the EU into a major bilateral investment agreement despite concerns that the deal would complicate a unified transatlantic approach under the Biden administration.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Given these limitations,</strong> the United States will need to be flexible and innovative as it builds partnerships.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Rather than form a grand coalition</strong> focused on every issue, the United States should pursue bespoke or ad hoc bodies focused on individual problems, such as the D-10 proposed by the United Kingdom (the G-7 democracies plus Australia, India, and South Korea). These coalitions will be most urgent for questions of trade, technology, supply chains, and standards.’&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Other coalitions,</strong> though, might focus on military deterrence by expanding the so-called Quad currently composed of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, infrastructure investment through cooperation with Japan and India, and human rights through the two-dozen states that criticized Beijing’s internment camps in Xinjiang and its assault on Hong Kong’s autonomy.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The purpose of these different coalitions</strong>—and this broader strategy—is to create balance in some cases, bolster consensus on important facets of the regional order in others, and send a message that there are risks to China’s present course.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This task</strong> will be among the most challenging in the recent history of American statecraft.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; border-bottom:solid 10px #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>January 9, 2021</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:center; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto 20px auto; padding:30px 0 20px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7slPUW?track_p_id=7S5JUEhT79iHPi_CwrhlTsY" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/Me8iIFV5sa1R2g60eSo5tDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In this issue:</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. China Reacts</strong>&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘On Double Standards’&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst'&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of <em style="font-style: italic">The Global Times'&nbsp;</em></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. ‘Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns’</strong>&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay'&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. A Pro Tip from 'The Relevant Organs'</strong>&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Dealing with Insurrectionist Leaders the Chinese Way' &nbsp;</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;">&nbsp;&nbsp;<em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue.</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic"></em><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Including an article here does imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.</strong></em><em style="font-style: italic">&nbsp;</em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As it does so often,</strong> the cover of <em style="font-style: italic">The New Yorker </em>captures the meaning of a pivotal event.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In the cover</strong> for the January 18th issue of the magazine, the Cuban-American artist Edel Rodriguez captures the mood of the day.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“A part of America</strong> died on January 6th,” Rodriguez said.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“The flag at half-mast</strong> marks that moment.”</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I knew as I watched </strong>that ‘part of America’ die on Wednesday that this issue would have to be devoted to how the Chinese reacted to the incident at the Capitol and how the government used it for propaganda. Still, this issue has been the hardest for me to write.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">First,</strong> because in doing the research for this issue, I had to return over and over to the shock and horror of watching the Capitol invaded to stop the lawful counting of electoral votes at the incitement, unbelievably, of the U.S. president. My stomach is still in knots as I write this.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Second,</strong> because I knew that the Chinese would have to do nothing more than report the news to achieve any political ends, no need for spin (although there was plenty, but not from main media outlets). This was highlighted by the spokesperson of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs at a regular press conference.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In response to the question, </strong>‘Some American media reported that China is taking advantage of the chaos in the United States to expand China's influence, and the United States is even more unable to stop China's development. What is your comment on this?’, Hua Chunying said:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘<strong style="font-weight: bold">What's happened at the Capitol</strong> has been extensively covered by the US media.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've seen TV programs</strong> playing out violent scenes 24/7.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've heard world leaders</strong> commenting on it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘People from all walks of life</strong> in the United States are talking about it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then why, when the Chinese media</strong> are following this widely-reported event, it suddenly became propaganda?’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Why indeed.</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">What Chinese media</strong> did not cover as extensively was Congress’ reconvening that same evening to continue the counting of electoral votes and declaring the people’s will that Joe Biden become the next U.S. president.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While watching those proceedings, I was still too dispirited</strong> by the events of the afternoon to appreciate the resilience Congress was demonstrating.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Then the next day,</strong> all these threads came together as I read this Tweet from Scott Kennedy of the Center for International and Strategic Studies, posted during the Congressional joint session at 2:36am:</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6ZLswa?track_p_id=9xWGPlPWLJ81Q2dK_KkyjJ2" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/49Xh1pIPT5j3rlGWCGqKeDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">At that moment,</strong> I too felt lucky to live in a democracy – for as long as we can keep it.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">A note: </strong>I've spotlighted Matt Pottinger, Deputy National Security Advisor, before.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because of the President's role </strong>in the Capitol riots, Mr. Pottinger resigned his post.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">As I have pointed out </strong>and as WaPo's Josh Rogin confirms when he writes:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Americans</strong> will likely see him as yet another fed-up Trump official, without realizing the greater significance of his four years of White House service.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though Pottinger’s name</strong> was largely unknown to the public, his influence on U.S. foreign policy will be felt for years to come.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The incoming Biden administration</strong> is set to preserve many of the changes in the government’s approach to China that Pottinger, along with other like-minded officials, worked to implement.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Keep an eye open</strong> for Mr. Pottinger and his next gig.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Unlike other China Hawks </strong>in the administration, he has a serious clue about China and the discipline to craft a strategy (even if the President didn't have the discipline to implement it).</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Pottinger's impact on China policy</strong> won't end with his resignation.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Finally, to cap a miserable week,</strong> a pro tip from <em style="font-style: italic">The Relevant Organs</em> to the U.S. on managing the aftermath of the insurrection:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'You definitely need a show trial.'</strong></li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">1. China Reacts</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7omFii?track_p_id=7UMakKUS76RtPy_3pYM4c42" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Til2Y-X9CvW2ZU0wLnO1V0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7omFii?track_p_id=4W3t%4076RtPy_tiDMA1XbInQ" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'On Double Standards'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7omFii?track_p_id=4c%40Nf76RtPy_tB1kW4gxuxd" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/vZG7fk7CDubs-tggyGpeIDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hua Chunying</strong> | Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Besides, facts are there, beyond anyone's denial, regardless of whether they came up in the Chinese media reports or not.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Regular Press Conference, January 7, 2021</strong></em></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Beijing Youth Daily:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘Some American media</strong> reported that China is taking advantage of the chaos in the United States to expand China's influence, and the United States is even more unable to stop China's development. What is your comment on this?’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hua Chunying:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘What's happened at the Capitol &nbsp;</strong>has been extensively covered by the US media.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've seen TV programs</strong> playing out violent scenes 24/7.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We've heard world leaders</strong> commenting on it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘People from all walks of life</strong> in the United States are talking about it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Then why, when the Chinese media</strong> are following this widely-reported event, it suddenly became propaganda?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'When I responded to a foreign journalist's question yesterday,</strong> I invited all of you to seriously think about why some people reacted differently to similar scenes played out in the United States and Hong Kong and why they termed them differently. Why are factual reports by the Chinese media being labeled propaganda or even disinformation?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Is it simply because</strong> some people in the United States find them unpalatable?’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'I don't think this complies</strong> with the truthfulness principle of journalism.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Besides, facts are there,</strong> beyond anyone's denial, regardless of whether they came up in the Chinese media reports or not.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'However,</strong> this does uncover the ubiquitous existence of double standard when it comes to Chinese media and reflect the sense of superiority and ideological prejudice long harbored by some individuals.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'For some people in the west,</strong> they pride themselves on their democracy and freedom, even though deep down they have their grievances and dissatisfaction; they criticize China as being authoritarian and totalitarian, even though deep down they may hope they could lead a life as the Chinese do.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'For those issues</strong> that have come up in the United States or in other western countries, they in the west can argue, debate and comment in ways whatever they want.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But if the Chinese side</strong> pitches in, then it suddenly morphs into "propaganda" or "disinformation".’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">AFP:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The media </strong>has noted some similarities and some differences between what happened in Hong Kong and in the United States.'&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'I think one issue</strong> that news reports pointed out was also the intent behind the unrest.'&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'In the U.S. case </strong>they were trying to overturn the results of an election, while in Hong Kong they were demanding for more democracy.'&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'I'm just wondering </strong>if you could clarify your take on this?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hua Chunying:</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold"> ‘The two are very similar </strong>in terms of subjecting legislature to violence.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On July 2019,</strong> radical protesters stormed the legislature, trashed the place, defaced the Hong Kong emblem, fan up anti-police sentiment, and hurled toxic liquid and powder at and even stabbed police force.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Hong Kong Police Force</strong> responded with maximum restraint.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Similar scenes</strong> played out in the United State but were reported by some press in different words.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Protesters</strong> were "thugs" and "domestic terrorists" when they stormed the Capitol Hill, but were "democratic fighters" and even "heroes" when they stormed the Hong Kong Legco.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It would be difficult</strong> if not impossible to find a better definition for double standard.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=4QXLQ7RwSQI_2BfVRpyg4dd" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TMRELHqhsIAO-3JasyRka0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=117RwSQI_c3v2FYqHVlMWhc" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Chinese netizens jeer riot in US Capitol as "Karma," say bubbles of "democracy and freedom" have burst' </a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:0.5rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=7srBgtNd7RwSQI_Afq362hX" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1LHD0VZ2wbCFCcKb1mpySjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:0.25rem; font-size:10px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="max-width:600px; margin:0 auto; padding:0; background:#fff;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1347113336014426113" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="70%" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5ff8e3f1eb709c58e71e0252_Global%20Times.gif" style="display:block; margin:0 auto; border:solid 30px #ddd; border-radius:2px; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Global Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, this "beautiful sight" is taking place in the US.’</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The&nbsp;Global Times&nbsp;is a daily newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper.</strong></em></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Words like "Karma," "retribution" and "deserving"</strong> were frequently mentioned in Chinese netizens' comments when they saw the latest episode of the US' real version of House of Cards - which saw Trump supporters storming the Capitol, messing up House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office, clashing with police officers and looting items.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The pictures went viral</strong> in US, Chinese and international news outlets after the riots began Thursday morning.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese web users</strong> still remember the distress and anger they felt when they saw rioters in Hong Kong storming the Legislative Council Complex, scrawling graffiti, smashing and robbing items.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And, instead of condemning the violence,</strong> US politicians hailed the "courage" of these mobs, Western media praised the "restraint" of the rioters, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even called it a "beautiful sight."</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, this "beautiful sight"</strong> is taking place in the US.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A Chinese netizen commented,</strong> "Pelosi can enjoy the beautiful sight - even at her office desk! For such a long time, US politicians called rioters 'freedom fighters' in other countries. Now, they finally have retribution!" ’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=7gmwuKnp7RwSQI_QzPR5ioU" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/1TDDqsxaB6Epa6ATUKMbKzl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7omFii?track_p_id=epvzXFVTMKl53oq76RtPy_a" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/TMRELHqhsIAO-3JasyRka0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7omFii?track_p_id=eU3uWv3dUwgKC1L76RtPy_R" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'A Few Tweets from Hu Xijin 胡锡进, Editor of 'The Global Times'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=4ayCx7RwSQI_jYCP5JvHGvx" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/82M9yfYzWI1G_r26Jix6CDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=4qGBj7RwSQI_6TphQVMSTs5" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/olaZjgGCqURAZZxRQt6BNDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/94cT5s?track_p_id=6m%40ps4T7RwSQI_KlQH5UJ56" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/m3t6poMkOZCrQSsxV4sDgDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7omFii?track_p_id=2ne76RtPy_UWLrAyz4hZfwP" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/VIaDbo5eT6UOn4xcsDE9mjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">2. Architect of Trump China Policy Resigns                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5NcZuK?track_p_id=4jXRt8YdNtu_yw45BOL3okv" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/R2honJU3MXkzC1EUKtMivki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5NcZuK?track_p_id=08YdNtu_lr4Rf2y3DXZZBYH" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Matt Pottinger resigns, but his China strategy is here to stay'&nbsp;&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5NcZuK?track_p_id=1M8YdNtu_JqXb%40XIXYdiEhw" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/E1GE6jQonMjiWjXWnJW4mjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><p style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><em style="font-style: italic">U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger delivers a speech in Chinese to the Chinese people at an on-line video conference on the 101st anniversary of pivotal citizens' protests in China, May 4, 2020 - the 'May Fourth Movement.'.</em></p></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Washington Post</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Josh Rogin</strong> | The Washington Post</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though Pottinger’s name was largely unknown to the public, his influence on U.S. foreign policy will be felt for years to come.’</strong></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As President Trump’s devotees</strong> stormed the U.S. Capitol Wednesday afternoon, several senior administration officials took the opportunity to resign.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of them</strong> was deputy national security adviser&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/politics/national-security-adviser-resigns-trump-protest/index.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Matthew Pottinger</a>.'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Most Americans</strong> will likely see him as yet another fed-up Trump official, without realizing the greater significance of his four years of White House service.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even though Pottinger’s name</strong> was largely unknown to the public, his influence on U.S. foreign policy will be felt for years to come.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The incoming Biden administration</strong> is set to preserve many of the changes in the government’s approach to China that Pottinger, along with other like-minded officials, worked to implement.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Starting on the administration’s first day,</strong> Pottinger served as senior director for Asia on the National Security Council staff under his former commander in Afghanistan, Mike Flynn, who picked him for the post. Pottinger remained after Flynn was fired.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Under Flynn’s replacement, </strong>H.R. McMaster, Pottinger worked with other officials to craft new guidelines on U.S. strategy toward China, including an “Indo-Pacific strategy review,” as well as the Asia portion of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">National Security Strategy</a>, which labeled China a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/12/18/trumps-national-security-strategy-marks-a-hawkish-turn-on-china/?itid=lk_inline_manual_8" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">strategic competitor</a>.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pottinger’s team</strong> contributed heavily to&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/march/section-301-report-chinas-acts" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">investigations and reports&nbsp;</a>detailing China’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-united-states-is-finally-confronting-chinas-economic-aggression/2018/03/25/3e0a2188-2f72-11e8-b0b0-f706877db618_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_8" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">economic aggression</a>, which formed the basis for&nbsp;<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/march/president-trump-announces-strong" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Trump’s trade war against Beijing</a>.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pottinger continued under national security adviser John Bolton</strong> and was elevated to deputy national security adviser under Bolton’s replacement, Robert C. O’Brien,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-trump-administration-just-reset-the-us-china-relationship/2018/10/04/c727266e-c810-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_9" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">crafting key speeches&nbsp;</a>and traveling the world to explain the Trump administration’s often misunderstood China strategy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pottinger deliberately kept a low profile,</strong> but he occasionally stepped out in public to explain the thinking behind the administration’s approach.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pottinger is a hard-liner on China</strong> but not as hawkish as officials such as former White House chief strategist Stephen K.&nbsp;Bannon and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Pottinger</strong> often opposed accommodationists such as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pottinger</strong> believed in restoring the balance of power between China and the United States in Asia after many years of drift due to lax policy in Washington.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pottinger has also focused </strong>on raising awareness of Chinese Communist Party efforts to spread influence and interfere in various U.S. institutions, including academia, the tech sector and Wall Street.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Inside the bureaucracy,</strong> he expanded the NSC’s Asia staff and pushed all national security agencies to rethink their assumptions and greatly increase their focus on China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The incoming Biden administration</strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/biden-is-rebranding-but-not-reinventing-trumps-china-policy/2020/11/26/6d258318-2f74-11eb-860d-f7999599cbc2_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_18" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">&nbsp;is planning to continue</a>&nbsp;much of the basic China approach Pottinger and others set in place, albeit with some changes.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That reflects the bipartisan consensus in Congress</strong> and growing calls from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/08/coronavirus-crisis-is-turning-americans-both-parties-against-china/?itid=lk_inline_manual_18" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">voters in both parties&nbsp;</a>for a strategy that more forcefully confronts Beijing’s external aggression and internal repression.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden is expected to name his own “Asia czar”</strong> inside the NSC staff, recognizing the importance of having a senior official such as Pottinger in charge of coordination on the issue.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Trump’s own views on China</strong> have run the gamut, sometimes focusing on his friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and sometimes portraying China as a bitter enemy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Pottinger</strong> helped translate those impulses into lasting institutional change that will long outlive the Trump administration.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;‘ “It’s impossible to overstate</strong> the impact Matt has had on American national security,” said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), who served with Pottinger when they were both Marine intelligence officers in Iraq.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “He leaves behind</strong> a four-year legacy as impactful as any American strategist before him.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">3.  'The Relevant Organs' Pro Tip: 'You Definitely Need a Show Trial'                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5NcZuK?track_p_id=7mbvsZTU8YdNtu_Tty6VH%40r" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/qymV_mVec5GJy5g4RHwz_Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; border-bottom:solid 10px #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>January 6, 2021</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:center; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; display:block; max-width:480px; margin:0 auto; padding:10px 0; font-size: 18px; font-family: Georgia, serif; color:#c80000; font-weight:normal; border-bottom:2px solid #c80000;">Opening Statement</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5fc2c325b2be470b39241339_Malcolm%20Riddell.png" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><span style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">'Mo Money, Ma Problems'</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Greetings!</strong></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In today’s issue:</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">‘Top Risks of 2021’: CHINA</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">2. Biden &amp; the EU-China Investment Agreement</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'With Concessions and Deals, China’s Leader Tries to Box Out Biden'&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'China and E.U. Leaders Strike Investment Deal, but Political Hurdles Await'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro &amp; Con</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">PRO | 'The Importance of the EU, China Investment Deal'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba</strong></p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'Mo money, Ma problems - Chinese trustbusters’ pursuit of Alibaba is only the start'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;">'China’s Pro-Monopoly Antitrust Crusade'</li></ul><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">CHINADebate, the publisher of the China Macro Reporter, aims to present different views on a given issue.</strong></em></h2><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Including an article here does imply agreement with or endorsement of its contents.</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Each New Year </strong>brings with it a slew of predications about what’s coming up in that year.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Among the best of these</strong> is the Eurasia Group’s ‘Top Risks,’ written in part by Ian Bremmer.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I’ve included just the China section, </strong>which concludes that, ‘On balance, this year will see a bilateral rivalry as intense as that of last year, and that’s dangerous.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Eurasia Group’s business is risk assessment </strong>– and it is very good at it. So the whole report is worth a read.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While I am not one</strong> for making New Year’s predictions, two events over the holidays have caused me to relent.</p><ol style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The EU’s signing an investment agreement with China,</strong> despite signals from the incoming Biden administration to hold off until the Biden team could weigh in.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China’s starting an antitrust investigation into Alibaba</strong> for ‘alleged monopoly conduct.’</li></ol><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">You haven’t seen much in these pages</strong> about the EU-China investment agreement.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That’s because it’s been dead in the water</strong> for the seven years the EU and China have been negotiating it.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The EU in various contexts</strong> have made this lack of progress one its major complaints against China.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Even though Angela Merkel,</strong> during her 2020 term as EU president, made the agreement a priority, not much happened.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">China, for its part,</strong> had little incentive to conclude a deal – it already had a fairly free hand investing in the EU.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And it had little to gain</strong> from acceding to the EU’s demands.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Besides,</strong> as the EU leaders also often lamented, China is focused on the U.S. and sees the EU as a relative pipsqueak.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Then Joe Biden,</strong> with his talk of coalitions of allies against China, won the presidency, and Xi Jinping changed his tune.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In December,</strong> Xi instructed his negotiators to agree to many of the EU’s demand and get the deal done.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Merkel, </strong>quick to secure this for her legacy and to advance the interests of the German auto industry, began lobbying fellow EU countries to sign on.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor-designate,</strong> posted a somewhat oblique (incoming administration are prohibited from meddling in foreign affairs) but nonetheless clear Tweet, saying that hey, why don’t you guys wait until we’re in office, and we’ll work on this China thing together.&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ignoring this entreaty, </strong>Merkel plowed ahead, and the deal was signed.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This has led to speculation</strong> that the EU is now going its own way and that Mr. Biden will have a difficult time forging any coalition, about China or otherwise, with the EU.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And with regard to China specifically,</strong> ‘Reinhard Bütikofer, chairman of the European parliament’s delegation on China, says: “We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">On the other hand,</strong> Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China said:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We should not have waited</strong> for the Biden administration to sort things out. Wait for what?’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We don't know if China</strong> will be more responsive if the three parties sit together.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We don't have a timeline.</strong> Shall we wait another two or three years?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This doesn't exclude</strong> our meeting, putting together a program, and talking to the Chinese in a coherent manner, the OECD countries, possibly all together, and the U.S.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this happening </strong>is very much unknown.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We like the fact</strong> that there could be a coalition, but at this stage, get the investment deal done and move on.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My impression</strong> is that Mr. Wuttke is on the right track.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Yes, it would have better,</strong> from a U.S. point of view, if a new Biden administration had had a chance to weigh in.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But the deal, </strong>from an EU point of view, was more important, and acting<strong style="font-weight: bold"></strong>in what the EU considered its own interest, especially after four years of being kicked around by the U.S., seems pretty reasonable.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My prediction: </strong>This will be a speed bump to U.S.-EU cooperation on China – it is not a signal of EU reluctance to join a coalition to counter China.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The deal </strong>will not come up for a final ratification vote for a year or so.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Given opposition&nbsp;within the EU</strong> and the opportunity for the Biden administration to have its voice heard, there is a better than even chance that the EU will not ratify it anyway.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The story to watch</strong> is China’s antitrust investigation into Alibaba.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">My prediction: </strong>Expect a broad and thorough Chinese government effort to assert control over China’s fintech industry.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Chinese fintech&nbsp;companies</strong> have control of masses of data on individuals that the Party believes should only be in its hands, and they have the ability to generate narratives that don’t necessarily conform to those of the Party.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Mr. Xi</strong> has demonstrated time and again that Party control trumps GDP.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">So even if this effort </strong>to rein in fintech harms the drive for tech autonomy and global dominance, Mr. Xi will persevere and prevail.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">This will be one </strong>of the biggest and most consequential stories of 2021.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Let me know what you think. </strong>And please forward the <strong style="font-weight: bold">China Macro Reporter</strong> to your friends and colleagues.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">All the best,</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Malcolm</strong>&nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">1. Eurasia Group| ‘Top Risks of 2021’                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5jWyRc?track_p_id=4R6PB8fx9nK_5r3gPKQV4rl" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/HGIKa7yhSjzlCCE7AiOQs0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5jWyRc?track_p_id=aL2LIsfRVXh8fx9nK_bkSnv" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">‘Top Risks of 2021’: CHINA</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/5jWyRc?track_p_id=5MI4LK8fx9nK_U63J22XuVc" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/P-99AqqlyXqOexXoFMz4gjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Eurasia Group</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Ian Bremmer &amp; Cliff Kupchan</strong> | Eurasia Group</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Overall, this year will experience an expansion of a high level of US-China tensions.'</strong></em></h2><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><a href="https://www.eurasiagroup.net/files/upload/top-risks-2021-full-report.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Read</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold"> all of the ‘Top Risks of 2021’</strong></h3><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Key Points</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Following Trump’s exit,</strong> the US-China relationship will not be as overtly confrontational.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Both sides</strong> will seek some breathing space.’’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the desire for stability</strong> will be offset by three new and underappreciated factors:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a spillover of tensions</strong> from the United States to its allies,</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘a competition</strong> to heal the world, and’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘another competition</strong> to green it.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘On balance</strong>, this year will see a bilateral rivalry as intense as that of last year, and that’s dangerous.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Discussion</strong></span></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike the Trump administration, </strong>which pursued a tougher China policy unilaterally, Biden will enlist and coordinate with allies in this area, seeking a multilateral front against specific Chinese economic and security policies.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The European Union, Japan, and India</strong> will be key targets of the US outreach. Despite a setback on the China-EU investment agreement, the new administration will have some successes—suspicion of China is broadly growing.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In turn,</strong> that will create deeper fissures between Beijing and these US allies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But creating a broad united front on China</strong> will not happen easily.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing </strong>will lash out at countries closely coordinating with Washington, as it did against Australia last year.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In other cases, </strong>Beijing will offer its own economic incentives to push back against efforts at encirclement.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That will create a battle of diplomacy</strong> that will serve as an additional irritant to US-China relations.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US and China</strong> will both try to increase their influence by providing vaccines to other countries.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> is poised to outperform the US.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Having largely contained the pandemic</strong> within the country’s borders, China’s powerful state apparatus will be able to export vaccines more easily.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And unlike the best vaccines available in the US,</strong> current Chinese vaccines can be safely moved at a relatively warm temperature (35- 46 degrees Fahrenheit), making them attractive to low-and-middle income countries that lack cold chain infrastructure.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These advantages will enable China</strong> to make good on the big bet it placed on vaccine diplomacy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing </strong>has signed export deals for its vaccines and agreements to produce them in key emerging markets, allowing it to deepen friendships in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And these efforts</strong> come at a time when “wolf warriors,” or hardliners, are ascendant in making Chinese foreign policy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result will be hubris on Beijing’s part,</strong> albeit with rewards for those in the Global South eager to be vaccinated.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Biden, on the other hand,</strong> will have to focus on domestic policies, including jumpstarting the economic recovery, leaving less time and fewer resources for competition with China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US</strong> also faces a challenging vaccine rollout at home that could further dent its image internationally, and leave it with fewer bargaining chips to deal with countries such as the Philippines that seek to make vaccine access a precondition for greater foreign policy cooperation with Washington.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The result</strong> will be a US elite and public increasingly resentful of Chinese gains during the vaccine phase, and that will add strain to bilateral relations generally.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The second new source of tension</strong> will be rivalry in green technologies.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Having pledged to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030</strong> and to become carbon neutral before 2060, China seeks to score public diplomacy points and put the US on the back foot before Biden takes office.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing</strong> already enjoys a big lead in many of the key clean energy supply chains of the 21st century, from batteries and electric vehicles to solar, wind, and beyond.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Here, too, the US</strong> will be eager to catch up, employing industrial policy tools that mark a departure from the neoliberalism of the postwar period.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It will make major investments</strong> to re-shore portions of these clean energy supply chains back to the US, seek to shame Chinese coal investment abroad, and rally allies to pressure China on climate and clean energy issues.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China, for its part,</strong> has grown accustomed to its climate soft power boom during the Trump years and will not take this offensive lightly.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘US efforts </strong>to enlist allies, vaccine diplomacy, and climate tech competition will interact with longstanding tensions to further complicate US-China relations.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Disagreements over bilateral trade and technology,</strong> the treatment of the Uighurs, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the South China Sea will fully carry over into this year ... all of which will sustain a significant chance of miscalculation and escalation during a crisis.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So, yes, the two countries</strong> will seek some breathing room after the 20 January inauguration, Biden to focus on domestic affairs and Chinese President Xi Jinping to further consolidate his power in advance of the 2022 Party Congress.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But a detente</strong> is not to be.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Overall,</strong> this year will experience an expansion of a high level of US-China tensions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">2. Biden &amp; the EU-China Investment Agreement                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6HJEvI?track_p_id=06BJtde_E3uNLevW1T3%40pEf" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6HJEvI?track_p_id=eacNkWZRL3R3SGI6BJtde_W" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'With Concessions and Deals, China’s Leader Tries to Box Out Biden'&nbsp;</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6HJEvI?track_p_id=aOjp56puBnu6BJtde_AC6WF" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/7OkFLPbH2v4yTaayn8woyDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Biden has pledged to galvanize a coalition to confront the economic, diplomatic and military challenges that China poses. China clearly foresaw the potential threat.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China’s leader, Xi Jinping,</strong> has in recent weeks made deals and pledges that he hopes will position his country as an indispensable global leader, even after its handling of the coronavirus and increased belligerence at home and abroad have damaged its international standing.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A trade pact</strong> with 14 other Asian nations, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A pledge</strong> to join other countries in reducing carbon emissions to fight global warming.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now,</strong> an investment agreement with the European Union, the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In doing so,</strong> he has underlined how difficult it will be for President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. to forge a united front with allies against China’s authoritarian policies and trade practices, a central focus of the new administration’s plan to compete with Beijing and check its rising power.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The image</strong> of Mr. Xi joining Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, President Emmanuel Macron of France and other European leaders in a conference call on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/business/china-eu-investment-deal.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Wednesday to seal the deal with</a> the European Union also amounted to a stinging rebuke of the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate China’s Communist Party state.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Around September,</strong> Mr. Xi showed renewed interest in wrapping up discussions for the European investment agreement, which had been dragging on for seven years.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Only months before,</strong> a deal seemed all but dead amid&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/world/asia/china-europe-xi-jinping.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">rising animosity&nbsp;</a>toward China in Europe.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A breakthrough</strong> came after the American presidential election.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Trump</strong> showed disdain for America’s traditional allies in Europe and Asia.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Mr. Biden</strong> has pledged to galvanize a coalition to confront the economic, diplomatic and military challenges that China poses.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China</strong> clearly foresaw the potential threat.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In early December,</strong> after phone calls with Ms. Merkel and Mr. Macron, Mr. Xi pushed to finish the investment agreement with the Europeans.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/75cMgC?track_p_id=4VLyq5kQP42_GsiKguvAHvi" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/3QKIJ28TXRxlm_PNLipujEi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/75cMgC?track_p_id=bhsZ3QVPPrYR5kQP42_Xnyb" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China and E.U. Leaders Strike Investment Deal, but Political Hurdles Await'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The New York Times</strong></h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China appeared eager to reach an agreement before Mr. Biden takes office in January, calculating that closer economic ties with the Europeans could forestall efforts by the new administration to come up with an allied strategy for challenging China’s trade practices and other policies.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Political opposition in Europe and Washington</strong> could ultimately derail the landmark an investment agreement between China and the European Union, the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.” ’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A large faction in the European Parliament</strong>, which must ratify the agreement before it can take effect, opposes the accord on the grounds that it does not do enough to stop human rights abuses in China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Public opinion</strong> was very disillusioned with the Chinese regime,” because of Hong Kong and the pandemic, said Philippe Le Corre, a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School who tracks Chinese investment in Europe.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “And now we have this deal, </strong>which is mainly designed to please a handful of German multinational companies.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The opponents</strong> may be able to muster enough votes to block ratification in the European Parliament.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In addition,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/business/china-european-union-united-states.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">a top aide to President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.</a>&nbsp;has signaled that the incoming administration is not happy with the deal.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Mr. Biden,</strong> in a speech on Monday, said that on any issue that mattered to the U.S.-China relationship, the United States was “stronger and more effective when we are flanked by nations that share our vision for the future of the world.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Europeans’ decision</strong> to overlook objections from the Biden camp was an indication that relations with the United States will not automatically snap back to the relative bonhomie that prevailed during the Obama administration.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘European diplomats</strong> said this week that while they hoped for a more cooperative relationship with the Biden administration, they could not subordinate their interests to the U.S. election cycle.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Negotiators for China and the European Union</strong> had been working on a deal for almost seven years, but progress accelerated suddenly after Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump in the election.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Unlike Mr. Trump,</strong> who has often been hostile to Europe, Mr. Biden is expected to try to cooperate with the European Union to rein in Chinese ambitions, but those efforts could take many months to materialize.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China appeared eager</strong> to reach an agreement before Mr. Biden takes office in January, calculating that closer economic ties with the Europeans could forestall efforts by the new administration to come up with an allied strategy for challenging China’s trade practices and other policies.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">3. The EU-China Investment Agreement: Pro &amp; Con                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zSgnQ?track_p_id=04qoOoY_x%404cs%40FNltC2ITC" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/Q7K3LvBpUHwYzkoXdXm2WUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6zSgnQ?track_p_id=5%40jD6w4qoOoY_DS5AsGkZbt" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">PRO | 'The Importance of the EU, China Investment Deal'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6zSgnQ?track_p_id=cA3hPPh6Oy4JG4qoOoY_qoX" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/jpqCO4OT2V2Ha4dcSN5Myjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke</strong> | president, EU Chamber of Commerce in China</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we should not have waited for the Biden administration to sort things out. Wait for what? We don't know if China will be more responsive if the three parties sit together. We don't have a timeline. Shall we wait another two or three years?’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg:</strong></span> ‘How significant is this investment treaty in reality for European businesses?’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke</strong></span><strong style="font-weight: bold">:</strong> ‘Well, it's a deal, after seven years of discussions.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So we're very happy</strong> about the fact that they stopped talking and now we can walk.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The other thing</strong> is, of course, we have to look into the details.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, this deal</strong> will be hashed out by the, vetted by the lawyers over 2021.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And then</strong> we have to get this deal passed through European parliament.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But business</strong> is happy that this has concluded.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg:</strong></span> ‘Do you think it gets passed ultimately by the European parliament?’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke:</strong></span> ‘Well, I hope it will be passed - business really can't wait forever.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Of course,</strong> I know the concerns by parliamentarians about the human rights situation in China. That will not go away anytime soon.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But I really hope</strong> that our parliamentarians are pragmatic and actually pass this deal through the system in order for us to implement more jobs in Europe and get more business done with China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg:</strong></span> ‘Joerg, you touched on the question of human rights and of course that has been a criticism from some members of parliament in Brussels, members of the European parliament.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The question</strong> for some will be: Should the Europeans be striking an investment deal with a country that is jailing journalists, that according to the United Nations has as many as a million people held in camps in Xinjiang, that is involved and engaged in what the Canadians call hostage diplomacy?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke:</strong></span> ‘You know, this is what I would call “system inherent.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As European,</strong> of course, we cannot welcome this.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But again</strong> this is a market access deal.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We have,</strong> for example, seen that Australia, Japan, Korea sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which included China at the beginning of December with none of these sustainability baskets being mentioned.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Phase One US-China </strong>Deal has much less language on forced labor than the European.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So in a way,</strong> European negotiators managed to push the envelope for the first time on this one.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, the parties have made it very clear: </strong>This is first step; this is market access.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘When it comes to these human rights issues,</strong> we really have to find a better toolbox to deal with China and a separate occasion.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Bloomberg:</strong></span> ‘What is your response to some within the incoming Biden administration who have said, "Look, the EU should have waited. They should have waited until Biden was in office, and then they should have pursued a coordinated approach with the US when it comes to China?" ’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Joerg Wuttke:</strong></span> ‘I can understand the anxiety.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the EU and the U.S.</strong> have a lot of common grievances with China.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We are happy that Biden team</strong> looks more favorable at teaming up with us on these.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But we should not have waited</strong> for the Biden administration to sort things out. Wait for what?’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We don't know if China</strong> will be more responsive if the three parties sit together.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We don't have a timeline.</strong> Shall we wait another two or three years?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Angela Merkel</strong> expressed her intent to get this done in 2020 at the beginning of 2020, when it was not clear who was going to win the U.S. elections.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘To actually finalize</strong> something, get over it, get it done is very much welcomed by European business. Why wait?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That doesn't exclude</strong> our meeting, putting together a program, and talking to the Chinese in a coherent manner, the OECD countries possibly altogether and the U.S.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But this happening </strong>is very much unknown.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘We like the fact</strong> that there could be a coalition, but at this stage, get the investment deal done and move on.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6IIpsW?track_p_id=1D7vkfKI_ZPLZMaO5bVd%40ob" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/zxbyrGBKPhFFZLzMYqfYnUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6IIpsW?track_p_id=4FVOA7vkfKI_aZQCYXYnt1W" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">CON | 'Europe has handed China a strategic victory'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6IIpsW?track_p_id=disqxfT3mCMb347vkfKI_%40y" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/wB_1AdLbbrSh6PB1623QdDl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Financial Times</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Gideon Rachman</strong> | Financial Times</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">“We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.”</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ursula von der Leyen,</strong> the president of the European Commission, says she wants to lead a “geopolitical commission”.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Ms Von der Leyen</strong> concluded 2020 by sending a truly awful geopolitical message — as her commission signed off on an investment treaty between the EU and China.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the past year,</strong> China has crushed the freedom of Hong Kong, intensified oppression in Xinjiang, killed Indian troops, threatened Taiwan and sanctioned Australia.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By signing a deal with China nonetheless,</strong> the EU has signalled that it doesn’t care about all that.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Janka Oertel,</strong> director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank, puts it: “This is a massive diplomatic win for China.” '</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is also</strong> a considerable kick in the teeth for Joe Biden.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The US president-elect</strong> has stressed that, after Donald Trump, he wants to make a fresh start with Europe.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In particular,</strong> the Biden administration wants to work on China issues together with fellow democracies.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Jake Sullivan,</strong> Mr Biden’s national security adviser, issued a last-minute plea for the Europeans to hold off on signing the deal — at least until they had a chance to discuss it with the new administration. He was ignored.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘EU officials</strong> offer several justifications for their decision.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They say</strong> that many of the concessions the EU has got from China have already been granted to the US, as part of America’s own “phase-one” trade deal. (These include sectoral openings in several industries, as well as changes to joint-venture requirements.)'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Brussels officials</strong> point out that the US did not ask for European permission before concluding its own deal with China.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘They justify the EU’s decision</strong> as a demonstration of “strategic autonomy”.'&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘These EU arguments</strong> sound tough-minded. But, in fact, they are naive.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is naive to believe</strong> that China will respect the agreement it has signed.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is naive to ignore</strong> the geopolitical implications of doing a deal with China right now.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And it is naive to think</strong> that the darkening political climate in Beijing will never affect life in Brussels or Berlin.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The EU says</strong> that this deal will “discipline the behaviour” of China’s state-owned enterprises, which will now be required “to act in accordance with commercial considerations”.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But China made very similar commitments</strong> when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Pledges to rein in state subsidies</strong> made 20 years ago are now being offered up again as fresh concessions.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beijing’s promise</strong> to “work towards” enforcing international conventions on labour standards are also laughably weak.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Shi Yinhong,</strong> a prominent Chinese academic, pointed out: “On labour, it’s impossible for China to agree. Can you imagine China with free trade unions?” ’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the past year,</strong> China has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to ignore treaty commitments.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its new national security law</strong> violates an agreement with Britain that guaranteed the autonomy of Hong Kong.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has also imposed tariffs on Australian goods</strong> in violation of the China-Australia free trade agreement.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The timing of this deal is exquisite for Beijing,</strong> since it presents the Biden team with a fait accompli.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Reinhard Bütikofer,</strong> chairman of the European parliament’s delegation on China, says: “We’ve allowed China to drive a huge wedge between the US and Europe.” ’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The EU-China deal</strong> was pushed hard by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and concluded right at the end of her country’s presidency of the EU.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ms Merkel</strong> is seen as a champion of liberal values.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But her approach to China</strong> is largely driven by commerce.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘She knows that the German car industry </strong>has had a rough few years, and China is its largest market.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ms Merkel’s determination</strong> to press ahead may also reflect her own scepticism about the future of the US.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In a speech in 2017,</strong> she said that Europe could no longer rely on America.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The election of Mr Biden</strong> has probably not changed that view.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many Europeans</strong> also believe that the US is on the brink of a new cold war with China — and want little part of that.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Some of these arguments</strong> are reasonable enough.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It is hard to look at current events in Washington</strong> and feel totally confident about the stability of the US or the Atlantic alliance.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘A European desire</strong> to avoid military confrontation in the Pacific is also rational.’&nbsp;</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But relying</strong> on an American security guarantee in Europe, while undermining American security policy in the Pacific, does not look like a wise or sustainable policy over the long run.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Europeans are also kidding themselves</strong> if they think they can be blind to the increasingly authoritarian and aggressive nature of Xi Jinping’s China.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For the past 70 years,</strong> Europeans have benefited from the fact that the world’s most powerful nation is a liberal democracy.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If an authoritarian nation,</strong> such as China, displaces America as the dominant global power, then democracies all over the world will feel the consequences.’&nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Even in the current geopolitical order,</strong> China has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to use its economic power as a strategic weapon.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By deepening their economic reliance on China</strong> — without co-ordinating their policy with fellow democracies — European nations are increasing their vulnerability to pressure from Beijing.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That is a remarkably shortsighted decision</strong> to make, for a “geopolitical commission”.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:0; background-color:#f5f5f5;">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td width="100%"><span style="display: block; margin-bottom:20px; padding:15px 3.5% 20px 3.5%; color:#ffffff; background-color:#c80000; text-align:center; font-family:'Lato'; font-size:1.75rem; line-height:2.75rem; font-weight:bold;">4. China's Antitrust Investigation into AliBaba                                          </span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/6XlyT2?track_p_id=6ktMhdz8QCQ4k_dgenH4jTA" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/_WMiBTDcNqqcPnQt-JHFGUi__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/6XlyT2?track_p_id=7ZMbZt6V8QCQ4k_H3ifpMgF" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'Mo money, Ma problems - Chinese trustbusters’ pursuit of Alibaba is only the start'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/6XlyT2?track_p_id=e5UMy3jtHklrcS68QCQ4k_k" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/AwInJ94k3cJMATZfyU5hHjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The Economist</strong></h3><h2 style="font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;text-align: center;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">'Chinese trustbusters long resisted hobbling an industry seen as world-beating, and backed in Beijing. Now, as in the West, they fret that a few giants control indispensable services—e-commerce, logistics, payments, ride-hailing, food delivery, social media, messaging.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘ “Acting on information,</strong> China’s State Administration for Market Regulation [SAMR] has started investigation [into] Alibaba Group for alleged monopoly conduct including implementing an ‘exclusive dealing agreement’.” ’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This brief note, </strong>posted by Xinhua, the state news agency, on December 24th, was all it took to cut China’s mightiest online titan down to size.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Not even the announcement three days later</strong> of an extra $6bn in share buy-backs arrested the slide in its market value.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By December 28th</strong> it had fallen by 13%, or $91bn.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘By comparison,</strong> American regulators’ detailed charge-sheets against tech giants such as Facebook and Google in recent weeks elicited a yawn from investors.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Alibaba investigation</strong> is the first of its kind into Chinese e-commerce.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Its timing</strong>—a month after authorities suddenly halted the $37bn initial public offering (IPO) of Alibaba’s fintech affiliate, Ant Group, and days before regulators told Ant to curtail lending and wealth-management activities—hints it is China’s way of chastening the two firms’ flamboyant co-founder, Jack Ma.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘That</strong> could be.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ant’s&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;</strong>was put on ice after Mr Ma likened China’s state banks to pawn shops. Chinese watchdogs often launch lightning crackdowns to deter others from misbehaving, says Angela Zhang of the University of Hong Kong.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the probe</strong> also signals concerns over the online economy, which is effervescent but also ever more concentrated.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As investors</strong> parsed the Xinhua note, share prices of other internet giants, such as Tencent and Meituan, fell nearly as steeply as Alibaba’s.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese trustbusters</strong> long resisted hobbling an industry seen as world-beating, and backed in Beijing.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now, as in the West,</strong> they fret that a few giants control indispensable services—e-commerce, logistics, payments, ride-hailing, food delivery, social media, messaging.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Common practices,</strong> such as selling products below cost to lure customers, look more troubling in an industry where the top three firms control over 90% of the market than they would in a less concentrated one.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In November&nbsp;</strong>SAMR said offering shoppers different prices based on their spending power, divined from user data, may be unlawful.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another reason</strong> for China’s newfound zeal (Mr Ma’s jibes aside) is greater trustbusting capacity.’&nbsp;</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘SAMR&nbsp;was formed only in 2018, </strong>by combining the offices of three regulators.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘It still struggles</strong> to keep up with the fast-changing online market; most staff are busy assessing mergers and acquisitions.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But it has more know-how and manpower</strong> than it used to—and looks eager to deploy them.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LaZnM?track_p_id=06RvQkQ_6j2eZCBMNYUaGfC" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/F5oOqbo1JBgSwB670WGJUki__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/7LaZnM?track_p_id=a6eJcdZr2%40D6RvQkQ_5nWv3" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'China’s Pro-Monopoly Antitrust Crusade'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/7LaZnM?track_p_id=06RvQkQ_Zbh%40qXaocgpKI%40g" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/3yXgi_CUhNLWGrHaODOJ7Dl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Project Syndicate</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Minxin Pei </strong>| Claremont College</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Chinese regulators are unlikely to stop at Alibaba; China’s entire private sector has a target on its back.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Chinese government’s newly launched antitrust probe</strong> into Alibaba is probably warranted.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The e-commerce giant</strong> undoubtedly has a dominant market share and engages in monopolistic practices, such as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/tech/enterprises/article/3115300/alibaba-antitrust-investigation-what-picking-one-two-practice" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">forcing merchants</a>to make the company their exclusive online distributor or be delisted from its platforms.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But other Chinese e-commerce companies</strong> have the same rule, and there are worse monopolists in China than Alibaba.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘So, why is Alibaba</strong> being targeted?’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘One of Alibaba’s apparent offenses</strong> is the expansion of financial services offered by its affiliate, financial-technology giant Ant Group, which owns Alipay.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Beyond being the world’s most popular payment app,</strong> with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/technology/ant-group-ipo-explained.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">730 million monthly users</a>, Alipay allows consumers to invest, purchase insurance, and secure loans on its platform.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Last October,</strong> Ant Group was poised to launch a record-setting $34 billion initial public offering.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the Chinese authorities </strong>abruptly&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-president-xi-jinping-halted-jack-ma-ant-ipo-11605203556" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">halted&nbsp;</a>it, in what was portrayed as a prudent attempt to limit the company’s exorbitant market power.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The decision to block the IPO</strong> reportedly came directly from President Xi Jinping.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Now it appears that Xi’s government</strong> wants Ant Group to abandon financial services altogether and to confine itself to payment processing.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Chinese regulators</strong> have provided a litany of justifications for this decision.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the real reason</strong> didn’t make the list.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Payment processing</strong> is a low-margin business; no state-owned bank bothers with it.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Financial services,</strong> by contrast, are highly lucrative – and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-tells-ant-to-refocus-on-payments-business-11609075851?mod=hp_lead_pos2" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">territory&nbsp;</a>of state-owned incumbents.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the Communist Party of China (CPC)</strong> were genuinely committed to breaking up monopolies and oligopolies that are stifling market competition, it would put those incumbents in its sights.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘After all, state-owned enterprises</strong> like China Mobile, China National Petroleum Corporation, the State Grid Corporation of China, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (the world’s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/269845/largest-banks-in-the-world-by-total-assets/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">largest bank&nbsp;</a>by assets) dominate China’s economic landscape to a far greater extent than Alibaba does.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet,</strong> far from launching anti-monopoly investigations into state-owned enterprises, China’s government has recently been&nbsp;<a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3104415/china-coal-hub-shanxi-merge-five-giant-state-owned-miners" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">pursuing&nbsp;</a>SOE “<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/China-forges-ahead-with-146bn-chemical-megamerger" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">mega-mergers</a>,” thereby boosting their market power even further.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The reason is simple:</strong> when SOEs succeed, the CPC benefits, both economically and politically.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘As Xi&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2020-10/31/c_1126681658.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">made clear&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">last April,</strong> the SOEs are “important material and political foundations” for so-called socialism with Chinese characteristics, and he plans to make them “strong, better, and bigger.”’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Allowing private firms</strong><strong style="font-weight: bold">to erode SOEs’ market share</strong> would undermine this objective, not only by naturally weakening the regime’s control over critical economic sectors, but also by opening the way for successful private companies to challenge the CPC.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And Alibaba</strong> – co-founded by Jack Ma, one of China’s wealthiest people – is one of the most successful (and innovative) of all.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In Xi’s eyes,</strong> it thus represents a threat to the CPC’s political monopoly and the regime that represents it.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Ma’s critics</strong> might regard the unfolding investigation as comeuppance for his past statements or business practices.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But Chinese regulators</strong> are unlikely to stop at Alibaba; China’s entire private sector has a target on its back.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘This has serious implications</strong> for China’s future economic prosperity – and for the CPC itself.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘For all their flaws,</strong> private firms are the most dynamic players in the Chinese economy.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘If the CPC</strong> cracks down on them, while leaving SOEs alone, private-sector confidence will dwindle, and the economy will become less productive, innovative, and efficient.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘GDP growth</strong> will falter.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the legitimacy of the one-party regime</strong> – which has long rested on the promise of prosperity – will deteriorate.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Xi and his colleagues</strong> are probably right that, by strengthening the regime’s grip on the economy, reining in the private sector will bolster the CPC’s political security in the short term.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But, in the longer term,</strong> the biggest casualty of China’s “antitrust” crackdown may well be the one monopoly it is meant to protect: the CPC’s lock on political power.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

<div style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color: #f5f5f5; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td><div><div class="noBorder" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; margin:0 auto; padding:0; text-align:center"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5; text-align:center; border-bottom:solid 10px #f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="max-width:600px"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="max-width:600px; width:100%; margin:0 auto; text-align:left; background:#fff"><tbody><tr><td height="10" style="height:0px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding:3.5%; text-align:left; font-weight:700; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; line-height: 20px;"><a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" title="CHINADebate" style="text-decoration: none;border-bottom: none;color: #001544!important;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; color: #c80000;">CHINA</span><span style="font-family: 'Merriweather', serif; font-size: 15.5px; color: #001544;">Debate</span></a></td><td align="right" style="padding:3.5%; text-align:right; font-weight:normal; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; color: #001544; font-family: 'Lato'"></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td height="30" style="height:30px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.3"><a style="border-bottom: none;text-decoration: none;color: #001544!important;" href="https://www.chinadebate.com/china-macro-reporter/archive" target="_blank"><img style="width:70px; border-radius:3%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19);" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5a3e922cf6b9a40001bc2d6b/5e3dbbf161e6c357b022bea5_China%20Macro%20Reporter%20.png" alt="China_Macro_Reporter"></a></td></tr><tr><td height="16" style="height:16px; font-size:0">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; font-size: 27px; font-family: sans-serif; color:#001544; font-weight:bold; line-height: 2rem;">China Macro Reporter</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:center; line-height:1.5; padding-bottom:40px; padding-top:10px; font-size: 13px; color:#001544; font-family:'Lato', sans-serif;">By Malcolm Riddell<span style="margin:0 6px">·</span>January 1, 2021</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://assets-global.website-files.com/5c864c33af62620dca1373ac/5fc2c325b2be470b39241339_Malcolm%20Riddell.png" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><span style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;">Happy New Year!</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h1 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 26px;line-height: 36px;font-weight: 400;color: #001544;letter-spacing: 0.1px;display: inline-block;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 0.5rem;margin-inline-start: 0px;margin-inline-end: 0px;"><span style="color: #d0021b"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Happy New Year!</strong></span></h1><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And greetings from Sarasota, Florida, </strong>where it’s a beautiful 77 degrees on the first day of the year.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">While I was planning this New Year’s issue,</strong> I debated with myself: Should I do a recap of China 2020 or a look forward into 2021?</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Then a third possibility</strong> presented itself.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">I read ‘Competition With China Could Be Short and Sharp: The Risk of War Is Greatest in the Next Decade,’</strong> by Michael Beckley of Tufts University and Hal Brands of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I realized that, </strong>with a new administration about to take office, a look a few years out might be the most useful.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">(I've highlighted some of the authors' key points below </strong>but the entire essay is well worth reading.)</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Drs. Beckley and Brand</strong> present an argument that has appeared here in earlier issues:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has entered a particularly perilous period</strong> as a rising power.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has the money and muscle</strong> to challenge the United States in key areas and to disrupt the existing order’.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet its window of opportunity</strong> may be closing fast.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">When this argument</strong> has been presented here before, readers’ pushback has been that China’s window of opportunity is not closing.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">They counter that,</strong> yes, China faces many problems - so do other nations - but its ability to manage them and its general wherewithal will allow China to continue to grow and gain power.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In other words,</strong> China is strong and getting stronger and not acting out of insecurity.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">The reasons behind the strategies</strong> and actions of major powers are complex and sometimes contradictory.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And I certainly</strong> wouldn’t build an analytical framework on the premise that China’s actions stem from a fear of its window of opportunity closing.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">But I wouldn’t exclude or eliminate</strong> that possibility from my framework either.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Because</strong> if Beckley and Brand are right, then China falls into the ‘rhyming of history.’&nbsp; As the authors point out:</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Historically, </strong>the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘World War I</strong> is a classic example.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Germany’s rising power</strong> formed the strategic backdrop to that conflict, but German fears of decline triggered the ultimate decision for war.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘German leaders </strong>ran such catastrophic risks in the July crisis for fear that geopolitical greatness would elude them if they did not act quickly.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The same logic explains</strong> imperial Japan’s fatal gamble in 1941,&nbsp;after&nbsp;the U.S. oil embargo and naval rearmament presented Tokyo with a closing window of opportunity to dominate the Asia-Pacific.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Like these other nations, </strong>‘China has entered a particularly perilous period as a rising power.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has the money and muscle</strong> to challenge the United States in key areas.</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet China’s window of opportunity</strong> may be closing fast, as it faces a pronounced economic slowdown and a growing international backlash.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the next five to ten years,</strong> the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain while it can.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">That is more than sufficient reason</strong> to consider the Beckley/Brands argument (and to read the whole essay).</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">And to set your geopolitical sights</strong> beyond 2021.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">&nbsp;</strong></p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">In the card you saw in the Christmas issue,</strong> the elephant and the blind monks of the CHINADebate logo were decked out for that holiday.</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Now they have changed</strong> to their New Year’s Eve attire.</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Have a look here</strong> - and have a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2021.</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/8Z4pKS?track_p_id=6QQ3LV45V0uNC_psMBss4pc" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/do7zmy12vKcSEd7Vb_u7-zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#ffffff;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/607SUK?track_p_id=bJQZCQepGsK35IcFLi_bYjj" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/607SUK?track_p_id=9m%40xNbZNS45IcFLi_fI5TVu" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'The Risk of War With China Is Greatest in the Next Decade'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><a href="http://sco.lt/607SUK?track_p_id=1w5IcFLi_4bXd3MBcP4gKYW" target="_blank" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><img width="100%" src="https://img.scoop.it/vo9AlCJHEEDXnDNZ-bQSbjl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBWpnB4YU4myT9-8UqDpoJyK" style="display:block; width:100%; border:none; height:auto"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding:3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael Beckley</strong> | Tufts University</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hal Brands</strong> | School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bad news is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In foreign policy circles,</strong> it has become conventional wisdom that the United States and China are running a “superpower marathon” that may last a century.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But the sharpest phase</strong> of that competition will be a decade-long sprint.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The Sino-American contest for supremacy</strong> won’t be settled anytime soon.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet history and China’s recent trajectory</strong> suggest that the moment of maximum danger is just a few years away.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has entered a particularly perilous period</strong> as a rising power:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has the money and muscle</strong> to challenge the United States in key areas and to disrupt the existing order’.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet its window of opportunity</strong> may be closing fast.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Since 2007,</strong> China’s annual economic&nbsp;<a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2019&amp;locations=CN&amp;start=2007" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">growth rate</a>&nbsp;has dropped by more than half, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">productivity</a>&nbsp;has declined by ten percent.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile,&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">debt</a>&nbsp;has ballooned eightfold and is on pace to total&nbsp;<a href="https://www.iif.com/Portals/0/Files/content/Research/Global%20Debt%20Monitor_July2020.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">335 percent</a>&nbsp;of GDP by the end of 2020.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has little hope of reversing these trends,</strong> because it will lose 200 million&nbsp;<a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">working-age adults&nbsp;</a>and gain 300 million senior citizens over the next 30 years.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And as economic growth falls,</strong> the dangers of social and political unrest rise. Chinese leaders know this:’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘President Xi Jinping</strong> has given&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/world/asia/china-xi-warnings.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">multiple&nbsp;</a><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/15/world/asia/vowing-reform-chinas-leader-xi-jinping-airs-other-message-in-private.html?module=inline" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">speeches</a>&nbsp;warning about the possibility of a Soviet-style collapse, and Chinese elites are moving their&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/19/business/china-capital-flight-trade-war-us/index.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">money</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voting-their-feet-children-high-level-ccp-officials-choose-live-abroad" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">children</a> abroad’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Meanwhile, </strong>global&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-sentiment-ex/exclusive-internal-chinese-report-warns-beijing-faces-tiananmen-like-global-backlash-over-virus-idUSKBN22G19C" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">anti-China sentiment</a>&nbsp;has soared to levels not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Nearly a dozen countries</strong> have suspended or canceled participation in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-imperial-overreach-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-11601558851" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects</a>.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Another 16 countries,</strong> including eight of the world’s ten largest economies, have banned or severely restricted use of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.channele2e.com/business/enterprise/huawei-banned-in-which-countries/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">Huawei&nbsp;</a>products in their 5G networks.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘India has been turning hard against China</strong> since a clash on their shared border killed 20 soldiers in June.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Japan has ramped up military spending,</strong> turned amphibious ships into aircraft carriers, and strung missile launchers along the Ryukyu Islands near Taiwan.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The European Union</strong> has labeled China a “<a href="https://ecfr.eu/publication/the_meaning_of_systemic_rivalry_europe_and_china_beyond_the_pandemic/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">systemic rival</a>.” ’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘And the United Kingdom, France, and Germany</strong> are sending&nbsp;<a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345147/south-china-sea-uk-france-Germany-news-navy-military-world-war-3-boris-Johnson-latest" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">naval patrols&nbsp;</a>to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/mys_12_12_2019/2020_09_16_GBR_NV_UN_001.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">counter</a>&nbsp;Beijing’s expansion in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. On multiple fronts, China is facing the blowback created by its own behavior.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The United States</strong> faces a pressing and volatile threat:'</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘an already powerful but insecure China</strong> beset by slowing growth and intensifying hostility abroad.’ &nbsp;</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The good news for the United States</strong> is that over the long term, competition with China may prove more&nbsp;<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Unrivaled-America-Superpower-Cornell-Security/dp/1501724789" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">manageable</a>&nbsp;than many pessimists believe.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Americans may one day look back on China</strong> the way they now view the Soviet Union—as a dangerous rival whose evident strengths concealed stagnation and vulnerability.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The bad news</strong> is that over the next five to ten years, the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%" style="background-color:#f5f5f5;"><tbody><tr><td style="height:2rem; font-size:20px;">&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table class="noBorder" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:5% 3.5%"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="50px" style="display:block; padding-top:10px;"><a href="http://sco.lt/5fxwFk?track_p_id=2XZ5D9T5y_syUdq1DW1wXgv" target="_blank" title="SourceLogo" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 0px solid #008dc8!important;"><img height="50px" width="auto" alt="SourceLogo" src="https://img.scoop.it/2P2LxiV-sg54VayqL9X2F0i__cjguAuwrRM5-qsdIhQ=" style="border: 1px solid #ddd; border-radius:10%; box-shadow: 0 4px 8px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2), 0 2px 6px 0 rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.19); width:auto;"></a></td><td width="100%" style="padding-left:5%; color:#001544; font-size:27px; line-height:41px; font-weight:700; font-family: 'Lato'"><a href="http://sco.lt/5fxwFk?track_p_id=6qtJ1Up5D9T5y_XWzRmHHdJ" style="color:#001544; text-decoration: none; border-bottom:none;" target="_blank">'History Rhymes'</a></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="noPadding" style="padding:0 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%;"><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Foreign Affairs</strong></h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Michael Beckley</strong> | Tufts University</h3><h3 style="font-family: 'Lato';font-size: 14px;line-height: 21px;font-weight: normal;color: #5d5d5f;display: block;margin-top: 0em;margin-bottom: 0.3em;margin-left: 0;margin-right: 0;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Hal Brands</strong> | School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins</h3><h2 style="text-align: center;font-family: Georgia, serif;font-size: 20px;line-height: 34px;font-weight: normal;color: #c80000;display: block;background-color: #f5f5f5;padding: 2.5% 5%;margin-block-start: 2rem;margin-block-end: 2rem;"><em style="font-style: italic"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Historically, the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’</strong></em></h2><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Many people assume</strong> that rising revisionists pose the greatest danger to international security.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘But&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/10/24/danger-falling-powers/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">historically</strong></a><strong style="font-weight: bold">, </strong>the most desperate dashes have come from powers that had been on the ascent but grew worried that their time was running short.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘World War I</strong> is a classic example.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Germany’s rising power</strong> formed the strategic backdrop to that conflict, but German fears of decline triggered the ultimate decision for war.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Russia’s growing military power</strong> and mobility menaced Germany’s eastern flank; new French conscription laws were changing the balance in the West; and a tightening Franco-Russian-British entente was leaving Germany surrounded.’</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘German leaders </strong>ran such catastrophic risks in the July crisis for fear that geopolitical greatness would elude them if they did not act quickly.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘The same logic explains</strong> imperial Japan’s fatal gamble in 1941,&nbsp;<a href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/japans-decision-for-war-in-1941-some-enduring-lessons/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #001544!important;text-decoration: none!important;border-bottom: 1px solid #008dc8!important;">after</a>&nbsp;the U.S. oil embargo and naval rearmament presented Tokyo with a closing window of opportunity to dominate the Asia-Pacific.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘In the 1970s,</strong> Soviet global expansion peaked as Moscow’s military buildup matured and the slowing of the Soviet economy created an impetus to lock in geopolitical gains.’ &nbsp;</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">Like these other nations, </strong>‘China has entered a particularly perilous period as a rising power.’</p><ul style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 1rem!important;margin-block-start: 0px!important;margin-block-end: 0px!important;margin-inline-start: 0px!important;margin-inline-end: 0px!important;padding-left: 40px!important;padding-inline-start: 20px!important;"><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘China has the money and muscle</strong> to challenge the United States in key areas.'</li><li style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;margin-top: 1rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-top: 0rem!important;padding-bottom: 0rem!important;padding-left: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Yet China’s window of opportunity</strong> may be closing fast, as it faces a pronounced economic slowdown and a growing international backlash.’</li></ul><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"><strong style="font-weight: bold">‘Over the next five to ten years,</strong> the pace of Sino-American rivalry will be torrid, and the prospect of war frighteningly real, as Beijing becomes tempted to lunge for geopolitical gain while it can.’</p><p style="font-family: Georgia, serif!important;font-size: 17px!important;line-height: 30px!important;font-weight: normal!important;color: #001544!important;display: block!important;margin-top: 0rem!important;margin-bottom: 0rem!important;margin-block-start: 1.5rem!important;margin-block-end: 0.75rem!important;margin-inline-start: 0rem!important;margin-inline-end: 0rem!important;"></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></div>