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Know China Better.

Trivium China

Trivium China

Trivium China

Trivium is a team of analysts publishing research on China’s politics and economy. We also work with firms and funds on a bespoke basis.

Get briefed, not blindsided. Trivium’s custom research and strategic counsel can help you understand the political and economic factors affecting your sector in China.

Intel and briefings

Let us get you up to speed on the ins and outs of China’s operating environment. We can introduce you to the macro and political landscape, or construct an in-depth master class on specific sectors.

Media and policy monitoring

China can be a bit of a moving target. We’ll make sure you see changes coming by helping you stay on top of any big news or regulatory developments affecting your industry.

Counsel and strategy

We can help you formulate a market strategy, develop solid positioning, and give you objective assessments of risks, opportunities, and potential partnerships.

Andrew Polk

Andrew Polk

Co-Founder at Trivium/China
  • The Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
  • Chaoyang District, Beijing, China

All Analyses by

Trivium China

'Big lessons from the faulty analysis that spiked the Shanghai stock market'

'Big lessons from the faulty analysis that spiked the Shanghai stock market'

ProTips from Andrew Polk, Trivium China

On April 24, equity analysts interpreted a phrase used in a Politburo meeting readout to signal a new round of economic stimulus. And, the Shanghai stock market, one of the world's worst performers, spiked 2%. 

On April 25, having much earlier advised and protected clients, Andrew Polk of Trivium China published an analysis in Trivium's daily (and free) 'Tip Sheet' that explained why the market had gotten the signal wrong - there was no stimulus coming.

Later, Andrew and I talked about how he reached his conclusions. His explanation is a masterclass in how experience, discipline, and some tedious slogging, combined with a sound analytical framework, lead to good China analysis.

New super-agency, National Supervision Commission—and China's massive government restructuring

New super-agency, National Supervision Commission—and China's massive government restructuring

'With government restructuring, the biggest thing is the creation of an entirely new branch of government: the National Supervisory Commission. Its entire job is to overlook every single public official in China. It is an institutionalization and deepening of the corruption crackdown that we've seen over the past few years.'

In all, Andrew highlighted four major actions from the Two Sessions:

  1. Chinese government restructuring 
  2. The policy roadmap 
  3. Personnel 
  4. The legislative agenda + the constitutional amendments 

The Chinese Government’s 9 Economic Policy Priorities in 2018 (and beyond)

The Chinese Government’s 9 Economic Policy Priorities in 2018 (and beyond)
  1. Supply-side Structural Reform
  2. Innovation
  3. The “three critical battles”
  4. Deepening reforms
  5. Rural revitalization
  6. The regional development strategy
  7. Increasing consumption and improving investment
  8. Opening up
  9. People’s wellbeing

December 2017: Is China Actually Deleveraging? Yes and No.

Andrew Polk
12/31/17
December 2017: Is China Actually Deleveraging? Yes and No.

China Deleveraging Insider tracks the status of China’s financial de-risking initiatives and the state of deleveraging.

The most recent data from the PBoC and the CBRC show that bank asset growth hit a fresh all-time low in October. That means China is actually deleveraging – a little. It’s slow and slight, and done with a bit of trickery, but the debt load has shrunk in comparison to the size of the economy.

Channels

AsiaStrat
Granite Peak Advisory
Track Research
Trivium China
Gao Feng
Real Estate Foresight
China Beige Book