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China Beige Book

Independent Data. Actionable Insights.

China Beige Book

China Beige Book

China Beige Book

We Guide Your China Strategy China Beige Book provides institutional investors and corporate decision-makers with market leading insights derived directly from our nationwide proprietary data on the Chinese economy.

Reliable data on China’s economy are notoriously difficult to come by. Official Chinese government figures exist, but lack transparency and credibility, while the few private indicators that exist are far too limited in size and scope for strategic planning.

We founded China Beige Book International in 2010 to help institutional investors and corporate CEOs navigate China’s notoriously black box economy. Today we operate the largest private in-country data-collection network ever developed to track the Chinese marketplace, gathering real-time economic data from thousands of firms across all of China’s regions, sectors, and 34 discrete industries.

Our flagship platform provides independent data and in-depth analysis on every key component of China’s diverse economy—from growth dynamics to labor market and inflation trends to the world’s only tracker of the credit environment and shadow banking.

These data are the principal drivers of our advisory work, allowing our globally-recognized team of experts to guide clients through the noise while staying ahead of critical market-moving trends in the world’s second-largest economy.

Market Leading Insights To Guide Your Strategic Planning

Our analytical products—derived directly from our proprietary data—help decision-makers invest intelligently into one of the world’s least transparent economies.

ADVANCE DATA SERIES

Released during the last ten days of each quarter, these “first look” deliverables represent the earliest look anywhere in the world at the new quarter’s data.

  • Flash Data—A one-pager presenting the highlights of our brand new topline results immediately upon the completion of our national survey.
  • China Advance Economic Report—Comprehensive data-dive into the topical and sectoral themes covered in the Early Look Brief
  • Key Economic Indicators—A graphical presentation of our headline economic metrics across the full historical time-series.
  • China Early Look Brief—Key macro themes and market calls from our latest economic data.

THEMATIC PRODUCTS

  • Credit & Shadow Finance Monitor™—Broad assessment of China’s credit and bond markets, including the only private data commercially available that tracks interest rates and access to capital across China’s shadow finance universe.
  • Inflation Tracker™—A breakdown of China Beige Book’s inflation gauges across sectors, industries, and regions.
  • Labor Market Monitor™—In-depth analysis of China’s job market, wage environment, and payroll health by sector, industry, and region.
  • E-Commerce Tracker™—A breakdown of China’s digital marketplace across sectors and locales, including key trends ranging from e-commerce and e-payment platforms to logistics and warehousing.

SECTORAL PRODUCTS

  • China Commodities Tracker™—Deep dive into China’s volatile commodities sector, including the world’s only in-depth supply-side tracking of the Aluminum, Coal, Copper, and Steel industries.
  • Manufacturing Sector Report—Comprehensive tracking across China’s core “old” economy sector.
  • Services Sector Report—Comprehensive tracking across China’s core “new” economy sector.
  • Retail Sector Report—Panoramic tracking of Chinese retailing—a traditional proxy for domestic consumption—and the market trends that define it, including e-commerce.
  • Real Estate & Construction Report—In-depth evaluation of China’s critical property sector, broken down by realty and construction and across residential, commercial, and transportation sub-sectors.
  • Executive Overview: Macro Insights—Overview of our key findings and forecasts, released just ahead of official GDP.

ADVISORY SERVICES

  • Comprehensive Advisory—Full on-call advisory from our team of experts.
  • Market Commentaries—Timely analysis from our experts on market-moving issues from deleveraging dynamics to capital outflow worries to yuan devaluation rumors.

The China Beige Book Advantage

We are the world’s only advisory firm offering actionable insights derived directly from independently-sourced nationwide data on the Chinese economy.

Independently-Sourced Proprietary Data.

We operate a vast private in-country data collection network, using a proprietary methodology adapted from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Our team assesses and forecasts key market trends through the prism of this independently collected economic data.

Advantage: Your strategy is guided by credible data, not repackaged Chinese government statistics.

Broadest and deepest coverage of China’s economy.

Our flagship platform tracks the performance of over 3,300 Chinese firms across all of China’s regions, sectors, and 34 discrete industries. Our coverage is nearly ten times the size of the single sector private PMI, and encompasses every type of firm, every key economic sector, and every geographic region from the coast to the periphery.

Advantage: You identify trends ahead of broader markets by accessing the largest private database and analytical platform ever set up inside a closed economy.

We track key areas of the economy that no one else can.

Accurate forecasting requires going beyond mere headline growth figures. To capture this more comprehensive picture we created a next-generation tracker of China’s credit environment, including the world’s first and only coverage of China’s massive and opaque shadow finance universe. Our proprietary suite of products also includes the only economy-wide gauge of labor market conditions and only in-depth supply side tracking of China’s commodities sector commercially available.

Advantage: You gain exclusive insights into critical components of the economy that are untrackable through official Chinese or small-scale private data.

Data-driven, transparent, and actionable insights.

We are neither “China Bulls” nor “China Bears.” Unlike sell-side research from the Street we have no institutional bias or competing agendas, and unlike most commentators we are never incentivized to “talk our book.” Our sole mandate is to provide objective analysis that gives clients an edge, with our views driven directly from the results of our independently-collected data.

Advantage: You’re protected from false or agenda-driven market narratives through value-free and unbiased data, analytics, and forecasting.

LET’S TALK

Connect with us to find out how our products and services can help you take advantage of the defining growth story of our age. Contact Us.

Leland Miller

Leland Miller

Chief Executive Officer
  • Chief Executive Officer of China Beige Book International.
  • Member of the Council on Foreign Relations
  • Frequent commentator on media outlets
Derek Scissors

Derek Scissors

Chief Economist
  • China Beige Book International.
  • Oversees the firm’s data analytics operations as well as China Beige Book’s proprietary database, which is now the largest private database in the world on the Chinese economy.

All Analyses by

China Beige Book

'Trump's tariffs just first shot—the big China action is Section 301'

'Trump's tariffs just first shot—the big China action is Section 301'

Leland points out that President Trump's really big trade move against China yet to come, that is, Section 301 penalties. If you aren't up to speed on 301, you will be after you read and watch Leland's comments. As Leland says, with Section 301, 'regardless of how Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs end up in the next few days - you're seeing the beginning, not the end, of Trump's aggressiveness on trade.' 'And, I don't think people have prepared themselves yet for the fact that 301 is coming.'

A world of debt mortgages our economic future

A world of debt mortgages our economic future

What is not natural is China’s bad track record on debt: according to the Bank of International Settlements, every measure of debt — consumer, government and corporate — has risen as a share of GDP for the past decade. China went from a low-leverage country in 2007 to having a worse debt position than the US in 2017, despite the fact that the US itself has borrowed heavily.

What we import from China

What we import from China

But he can’t keep saying China is ripping us off and he’s going to stop it unless the US targets the biggest imports. The trade deficit with China is bigger than with the next eight countries combined. NAFTA? The trade deficit in cell phones and computers alone with China is bigger than the trade deficits for all goods with Mexico and Canada combined.

Is China's Economic Power a Paper Tiger?

Is China's Economic Power a Paper Tiger?

The Chinese economy is strange in many ways. Not only is it a hybrid between private capital and state control, but very few people directly invest in the mainland — and yet everybody is interested in how the second largest economy in the world is going to develop. That’s because Chinese demand determines the prices of world commodities, and the operations of multinational companies in China impact earnings. When the yuan falls, markets across the world get jittery. China watchers accept the fact that official Chinese data is severely flawed, and often simply fabricated, yet they still use it to analyze the Chinese economy and markets because there are few alternatives. One alternative, however, is the China Beige Book International (CBB), a research service that interviews thousands of companies and hundreds of bankers on the ground in China each quarter. They collect data and perform in-depth interviews with Chinese executives.

Will Chinese Commodities Derail The Global Reflation Trade?

Will Chinese Commodities Derail The Global Reflation Trade?

For over a year, commodities bulls have feasted on China. In the aftermath of the recent Communist Party Congress, many investors are now drooling over the prospect the boom will continue, based on Beijing’s promises to supercharge its campaigns against overcapacity and pollution this winter. If such pledges are fulfilled, the thinking goes, substantial chunks of steel, aluminum, and other refining capacity will be taken offline, rebalancing markets and providing rocket fuel to already frothy prices. 2018 could prove to be an even more amped-up version of 2017.

Leland Miller on Pressing China Issues

Leland Miller on Pressing China Issues

The Chinese economy is strange in many ways. Not only is it a hybrid between private capital and state control, but very few people directly invest in the mainland — and yet everybody is interested in how the second largest economy in the world is going to develop. That’s because Chinese demand determines the prices of world commodities, and the operations of multinational companies in China impact earnings. When the yuan falls, markets across the world get jittery. China watchers accept the fact that official Chinese data is severely flawed, and often simply fabricated, yet they still use it to analyze the Chinese economy and markets because there are few alternatives. One alternative, however, is the China Beige Book International (CBB), a research service that interviews thousands of companies and hundreds of bankers on the ground in China each quarter. They collect data and perform in-depth interviews with Chinese executives.

Channels

AsiaStrat
Granite Peak Advisory
Track Research
Trivium China
Gao Feng
Real Estate Foresight
China Beige Book