Finance & Real Estate

Debate: Four Experts And A Poll On What China’s Weak April Numbers Mean

Experts differ on what China’s weak April economic numbers. Here are four plus a Reuters poll.

1.  ’China Needs More Fiscal Stimulus: Dariusz Kowalczyk on Bloomberg video

2. China lacks the firepower to avoid slowdown: JPMorgan, Adrian Mowat on Reuters video

3.  China’s Tight-Rope Walk: Balancing the Contradictions in Chinese Growth:  Max Fisher

4.   ’Analysis: China Growth Risks Signal Need For Fiscal Action’: Nick Edwards

5.  Reuters Poll: China Growth to Bottom in Second Quarter

1.  China Needs More Fiscal Stimulus: Dariusz Kowalczyk on Bloomberg video

Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, talks about the outlook for China’s economy and central bank monetary policy.

Dariusz Kowalczyk

2. China lacks the firepower to avoid slowdown: JPMorgan, Adrian Mowat on Reuters video

Beijing is unlikely to spend big on infrastructure to reverse an economic slowdown, says Adrian Mowat of JPMorgan.

Adrian Mowat

3.  China’s Tight-Rope Walk: Balancing the Contradictions in Chinese Growth:  Max Fisher

‘It’s a tight-rope walk that economists call the “transition trap.” It’s a transition from an economy based on exports (which relies on Chinese goods, and thus the Chinese currency, staying cheap), to an economy based on domestic consumption and investment. It’s a transition from state capitalism, which can marshal amazing industrial output at the flick of a central planner’s pen, to something a little more market-based, where private businesses and private consumers drive growth.’

4.  ‘Analysis: China Growth Risks Signal Need For Fiscal Action’: Nick Edwards

China may need a back-up plan to stop economic growth being cut short by a surprise dip in demand at home and abroad that suggests monetary policy easing steps taken since the final quarter of last year are insufficient to deal with the downturn.’

5.  Reuters Poll: China Growth to Bottom in Second Quarter

‘In the Reuters poll, economists expect the annual rate of economic growth to be 7.9 percent between April and June, the first dip below 8 percent since 2009, a level regarded by many investors as the minimum growth needed to ensure sufficient job creation.’

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